Spin-off thread from "HYP1 is 21" -- all the off-topic posts

[moorfield]

No.

I am more than confident in doing the job myself, (and don't use income as a metric).

The big concern is the lack of visibility on risk, and concentration risk. I wouldn't delegate that to someone else.

Fair enough, and I have my suspicions that many contributors to HYPP share your view, ie. they think they can "do better" themselves, hence all the discussions of tinkering that emanate from that place. My question btw is not about what's inside the box (viz. concentration risk), it's about what the box delivers.

Out of interest, may I ask how have you done over the last twenty one years, ie. xirr compared to monabri's calculation of 8.23% for HYP1?

[dealtn]

No.

I am more than confident in doing the job myself, (and don't use income as a metric).

The big concern is the lack of visibility on risk, and concentration risk. I wouldn't delegate that to someone else.

Fair enough, and I have my suspicions that many contributors to HYPP share your view, ie. they think they can "do better" themselves, hence all the discussions of tinkering that emanate from that place. My question btw is not about what's inside the box (viz. concentration risk), it's about what the box delivers.

Out of interest, may I ask how have you done over the last twenty one years, ie. xirr compared to monabri's calculation of 8.23% for HYP1?

The honest answer is I don't measure it (and have no interest in undertaking the huge amount of work in a back testing regime to find out).

It's only in the last 5 years that I have been free of a compliance department, and having the time to invest truly independently and professionally. It's almost certainly the case I would be >10% in that time, and I suspect (excluding those shares I was mandated to hold) it is likely the same though probably lower than the most recent years.

[1nvest]

Out of interest, may I ask how have you done over the last twenty one years, ie. xirr compared to monabri's calculation of 8.23% for HYP1?

Jumping in ...

To end of 2020 annualised nominal accumulation total returns I'm seeing indicate

HYP 7.8%
FT250 8.7%
FTAS 4.5%
US £ 7.9%
World 7.4%

BUT! US, World, FTAS all got blown out of the water on a income provision basis i.e. 4% SWR and a bad sequence of returns risk coming to light saw the portfolio values severely depleted/wiped whilst HYP1 has > original inflation adjusted start date value still intact.

Comparing to a "basket" of equal initial allocations of CGT, PNL, RICA, FCIT, BRK, FT250
since 2005 saw broad total return alignment to HYP1 i.e. a diverse 50/50 blend of conservative/preservative (CGT/PNL/RICA) and growth (BRK/FT250/FCIT).

Other "baskets", I don't know, and have concern that they were retrospectively identified and back-run to align to the HYP1 start date. From later, such as from 2010, and anything holding US stock exposure (such as World that has around 50% US stock weighting) would be positively biased by the great gains that US stock have made since 2010, of the order 16% annualised nominal in US$ terms and more when £/$ Brexit £ declines are factored in.

Broadly I'd say all similar rewards and more a case of whichever set/style/method you are more inclined to favour. One of the greatest investment risks sits between the keyboard and back of chair (profit chasing/switching tends to induce a 2% average lag factor, where for some that is considerably worse i.e. they'd been better off had they just held cash deposits).

[csearle]

It is agreed that "here" isn't the right place for (constructive) criticism of HYP1 and HYP and general High-Yield strategies (as postulated by csearle), should anyone choose to do so.

To be clear by "here" I meant HYP-P as that is where I said it. But I really didn't say it isn't the right place for (constructive) criticism. I said it wasn't the right place for critical discussion,. That was sloppy of me. I meant critical in the sense of negative criticism really.

HYP-P is conceived for people practising the "HYP" set of strategies (or thinking of doing so) rather than for comparing it with other strategies. That is what I was trying to say. C.

[moorfield]

It's only in the last 5 years that I have been free of a compliance department, ...

Ha ha I am feeling your pain currently which is partly why I am making an effort to keep very hands off my portfolio for the time being.

[Arborbridge]

The honest answer is I don't measure it (and have no interest in undertaking the huge amount of work in a back testing regime to find out).

There's an old adage that could apply here: "Those that can, do, those that can't, cirticise"

This isn't aimed just at you. I have observed that many people post criticisms, but very few here actually bother to measure their own progress or even bother to post what it is they invest in. One can be forgiven for taking the views of some the people with a pinch of salt.

There are also quite a few posters who come up with good ideas for investment based on theory, on backtesting. Some of them are no doubt worthwhile, but I have found real life gets in the way. As soon as one invests real money the game changes and it never works quite as well as one might have thought.

In the long run, I've found my HYP and a basket of ITs has suited me: complexity and fancy schemes do not.

Arb.