Zen and the art of staying on target...

[Itsallaguess]

One of my long-term income-investment aims has been to one day switch over from paid employment to instead taking regular income from my primarily IT-based income-portfolio.

To help guide me regarding long-term progress on the above aim, I keep a monthly record of portfolio-generated income, and track that against what I expect to be my forward-looking monthly spending-requirements, which is itself based on long-term record keeping in Microsoft Money of my granular spending going back many years.

I think it's very important for this type of planning to have reliable income and expenditure figures based on long-term personal data, to both gain confidence that any figures used in these types of calculations are likely to be adequate, but also to enable me to see long-term growth and reliability in underlying income-streams over many years as well - it would be no good for me to just plan on last years income, or one single year of expenditure, and so any plans that I make need to be robust across a much longer period than that. Confidence is key, and confidence for me only comes with looking at multi-year data on both the income and the expenditure side...

Below is a table showing recent monthly portfolio-generated dividend income, as a percentage when set against that forward-looking monthly expenditure requirement (which equals my expected yearly expenditure divided by 12) -

|||||    2018 |    2019 |    2020 |    2021 |    2022
Jan |  37.09% |  40.59% |  36.39% |  79.10% |  72.03%
Feb |  66.56% |  75.60% |  92.59% | 104.21% | 127.28%
Mar |  63.93% |  57.93% |  75.16% |  62.90% |  65.67%
Apr |  50.57% |  74.67% |  55.73% |  62.80% |        
May | 120.11% | 134.29% | 138.88% | 198.45% |        
Jun | 146.29% | 140.33% | 160.90% | 169.22% |        
Jul |  37.50% |  79.19% |  72.08% |  79.93% |        
Aug | 131.86% | 101.13% | 125.73% | 156.61% |        
Sep | 133.73% | 154.78% |  77.09% |  92.27% |        
Oct |  31.51% |  34.45% |  66.35% |  94.87% |        
Nov | 105.21% | 110.15% | 176.14% | 202.74% |        
Dec |  80.59% |  93.28% |  20.04% |  19.89% |

For clarity, I very much have the intention of using a 'holding account' that is planned to contain a level of funding to act as a partial 'emergency fund' (with the rest of my emergency fund held elsewhere in things like Premium Bonds etc..) and which is also planned to contain a separate level of 12-months of 'expenditure-level' cash, so that the holding-account can run with an expected year's worth of cash that can be accessed on a monthly basis, by way of a direct-debit into my main bank account, and which can then be 'back-filled' by the expected stream of ongoing dividends from my income-related portfolio.

I mention this because I'm often a little worried when I myself see 'monthly income' tables similar to the above, where income-investors sometimes seem to be looking to 'balance' their income-portfolio monthly payouts across all 12-months, to perhaps look to achieve 'smooth monthly payments' by way of dividend-payment dates, rather than doing so via a holding account process, and so I just wanted to make it clear that I'm absolutely in the 'holding account' bracket myself, and I have no general interest *at all* as to just which months receive which level of dividend payments...

So taking the above into account, the reason I posted the income table is to help show the steady, Zen-like progress towards my ultimate goal of being able to one day switch my ongoing spending requirements from depending on a working wage to deliver them, to simply taking those funds from the natural yield of my income portfolio, and I hope that the general evidence is there that it's progressing well towards that goal.

My aim is for broad spending to be covered with an additional layer of income-buffer, so that I ultimately, and over the long term, draw out less using my direct-debit from the holding account than the ongoing dividend-income level that continues to accumulate within it.

Looking at the above table, and aggregating a rolling 12-month figure, we come up with 1341.75%, which then divided into 12 monthly chunks, covers 111.81% of expected monthly spending requirements, so whilst the buffer isn't quite where I want it to be yet, if I allow myself to squint a bit, then I'm beginning to come to the conclusion that the end-line, if not actually getting crossed any time soon, might at least be coming into view around a slightly foggy corner...

Back to the Zen for a while then, but progress is being made....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[staffordian]

Interesting to see that even with the disruption caused by Covid, your target appears to be getting closer. Though an 'Average' row under December with the percentage for the year as a whole would help me be more certain

Let's hope Vlad doesn't cause an even more severe hiatus in income in the coming months and years.

Regardless, it seems inflation will be an increasing issue over the next few years, which will put pressure on any safety margins, unless the anticipated expenditure side of the equation takes this into account.

On an unrelated note, it's great to see you back posting.

[moorfield]

The Microsoft Money budget planner can be very useful here, as an alternative to using a "holding account". I use it as an income (rather than expenditure) planner, at the end of each year I plug in forecast income against which I track dividend receipts for the following year. Invariably actual beats budget because I am reinvesting rather than drawing income. It can report monthly splits but I prefer to do quarterly, which can help size your cash reserve to however many months or quarters you want. And rather neatly I can also align a budget with the tax year instead of the calendar year (I just plugin my forecast income as at end March). It's worth a look if you've not tried it already.

[Itsallaguess]

Interesting to see that even with the disruption caused by Covid, your target appears to be getting closer.

Though an 'Average' row under December with the percentage for the year as a whole would help me be more certain

Yes, those figures would be useful, so here they are per full year and also with a final 'Rolling 12 month' for the last 12-month aggregate figures -

|||||||||||     2018 |     2019 |     2020 |     2021 | Rolling 
Total     | 1004.95% | 1096.40% | 1097.10% | 1322.99% | 1341.75%
Div by 12 |   83.75% |   91.37% |   91.42% |  110.25% |  111.81%

So steady progress over recent years, but I should probably note for the avoidance of doubt that whilst I'm still working there's an element of additional funds being injected every year, as well as the hoped-for underlying dividend-growth and internal-compounding of re-invested dividends going on as well, so I'd hope this to be the case anyway, but still, it's good to see the delivery of the long-term plan being fulfilled over this type of multi-year data...

Regardless, it seems inflation will be an increasing issue over the next few years, which will put pressure on any safety margins, unless the anticipated expenditure side of the equation takes this into account.

Agreed - which is where a couple of decisions will probably end up being made -

1. What level of 'over 100%' income safety-margin will I be happy to live with?

2. What sort of walk-away plan do I want to implement with regards to work?

I suspect that decision number one will sit with me for a while yet, whilst I get comfortable with things as they pan out in the medium term, and I expect decision number two will perhaps be influenced by the types of concerns you're quite rightly raising here, with regards to things like inflation, stagflation, recessions, global nuclear annihilation, etc...

I think a lot of those primary concerns, and many of the more lower-level general concerns I might have in the future in terms of actually implementing a potential 'walk-away' process might come down to me inching out, rather than jumping out, and I think some sort of middle-ground regarding part-time work, if possible, might well go a long way in helping me cover off a lot of those quite-expected 'head-issues' as well as those ongoing 'finance-risk issues' as well....

That approach has always felt to me like a good work / life balance stepping stone, as well as a relatively firm-footed financial stepping stone, and to be able to help with both of those aspects whilst also still heading firmly for the 'full exit' door does appeal to many of my initial instincts in this area....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

The Microsoft Money budget planner can be very useful here, as an alternative to using a "holding account".

I use it as an income (rather than expenditure) planner, at the end of each year I plug in forecast income against which I track dividend receipts for the following year. Invariably actual beats budget because I am reinvesting rather than drawing income. It can report monthly splits but I prefer to do quarterly, which can help size your cash reserve to however many months or quarters you want. And rather neatly I can also align a budget with the tax year instead of the calendar year (I just plugin my forecast income as at end March).

It's worth a look if you've not tried it already.

Thanks - I've had a play with it in the past and it falls into those areas of Microsoft Money which I just don't seem to be able to get along with for some reason.

It's not the only MS Money process that jars though, but years ago I decided to use MS Money just for the granular-expenditure stuff, which it's very good at and which feels like a much more attraction section of the tool to use over the very long term that I've used it, and that area of use is such a natural part of my weekly admin-process now that I really don't know what I'd do without it, but I think I'll stick to the 'holding account' idea to be honest, as it's been part of my long-terms plans for such a period now, that it's almost embedded without actually being utilised yet, if that makes sense, and I think one of the high-priorities with any of these sub-processes is that each of us must find ones that suit us as individuals, rather than thinking there's any sort of fixed set of processes, and it's great that there's enough flexibility around us all to be able to find something that suits at a personal level...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[MDW1954]

Wow! Do my eyes deceive me, or is that a 174-word sentence, IAAG? Frugality is a virtue, to be sure, but full stops are free!

MDW1954

[kempiejon]

Itsallaguess,

Great post and some nice numbers in there. My own experience echoes yours so here's a few thoughts for the interested.
I see you're on 111% of your desired income on a rolling 12 months basis. I have just run my own numbers and I see for the rolling 12 months to end of Feb 22 I have the same number. 104% for the period before. That's the first time my income has edged above my predicted expenditure. I've been building my cash pile in expectation of the new tax year so I'm also holding about 3 years of expected expenses too. I think that's just edged me to financial independence but I'd like a bit more safety. Though how much? And what will I do with my new independence?
As you say

1. What level of 'over 100%' income safety-margin will I be happy to live with?

2. What sort of walk-away plan do I want to implement with regards to work?

I suspect that decision number one will sit with me for a while yet, whilst I get comfortable with things as they pan out in the medium term, and I expect decision number two will perhaps be influenced by the types of concerns you're quite rightly raising here, with regards to things like inflation, stagflation, recessions, global nuclear annihilation, etc...

I think a lot of those primary concerns, and many of the more lower-level general concerns I might have in the future in terms of actually implementing a potential 'walk-away' process might come down to me inching out, rather than jumping out, and I think some sort of middle-ground regarding part-time work, if possible, might well go a long way in helping me cover off a lot of those quite-expected 'head-issues' as well as those ongoing 'finance-risk issues' as well....

I think a safety margin of 10% might be a bit tight, but I'm not sure how much bigger it should be and of course I'd like to see a slightly longer history of breaking that marker. My income which is being re-invested along with new money has been growing at a sufficient lick that momentum and a bit of time and that looks plausible.
My walk away plan would be to potentially reduce my hours in the current role - but I don't really enjoy it. Alternatively I have a 2nd part-time option lined up, something I'll get more pleasure from but the pay is a bit stingier and the hours are very lumpy through the year.
This week I've had some interesting developments at work. My employer is finally reviewing the department and I'm hopefully I could talk them into giving me 3 days a week for 18 months and then early retirement including access to my pension. Alternatively a redundancy offer with a helpful cheque could force my hand. The worst outcome is I keep my current hours and salary and I can spend another year shoring up that buffer and safety margin comfortable in the knowledge that I have my FU money.

[Itsallaguess]

I see you're on 111% of your desired income on a rolling 12 months basis.

I have just run my own numbers and I see for the rolling 12 months to end of Feb 22 I have the same number. 104% for the period before. That's the first time my income has edged above my predicted expenditure. I've been building my cash pile in expectation of the new tax year so I'm also holding about 3 years of expected expenses too. I think that's just edged me to financial independence but I'd like a bit more safety. Though how much?

I think a safety margin of 10% might be a bit tight, but I'm not sure how much bigger it should be and of course I'd like to see a slightly longer history of breaking that marker. My income which is being re-invested along with new money has been growing at a sufficient lick that momentum and a bit of time and that looks plausible.

Yeah - I agree that a 10% or 11% margin feels really tight, and I think I'd consider it tight in much more benign fiscal periods too, so in the period we look to be heading into at the moment, I seriously consider such a margin to be nothing much more than 'noise' right now, and useful only as a mark in the ground, to be monitored going forward in terms of maintainability, reliability, and hopefully still containing some potential for future growth as well.

As you say - with continued re-investment of internally-generated income, along with a level of fresh funds from our working wages, and with what we'd hope to be at least *some* level of growth from the currently-delivered dividends themselves, when taking a broad view, then there's lots of potential there for things to continue steadily improving in that margin situation, and we've just got to let time itself do some more of the lifting...

My walk away plan would be to potentially reduce my hours in the current role - but I don't really enjoy it. Alternatively I have a 2nd part-time option lined up, something I'll get more pleasure from but the pay is a bit stingier and the hours are very lumpy through the year.

This week I've had some interesting developments at work. My employer is finally reviewing the department and I'm hopefully I could talk them into giving me 3 days a week for 18 months and then early retirement including access to my pension. Alternatively a redundancy offer with a helpful cheque could force my hand. The worst outcome is I keep my current hours and salary and I can spend another year shoring up that buffer and safety margin comfortable in the knowledge that I have my FU money.

It sounds like you might have some interesting and potentially useful choices to make in the medium term then, and I hope it works out for you.

I consider myself extremely lucky to be able to say that on the whole, I've really enjoyed my working life, and the various roles I've had have been very rewarding across the board. With that said though, and probably like most people of a similar age, the job-based politics begins to grind you down more and more, and so that prospective pot of FU money sadly, and inevitably, becomes more and more important as the years play out...

Then of course there's also the growing 'in your face' evidence, via your parents generation and sadly our own as time moves on, that life often *really is* quite short indeed, and questions reverberate as to whether there's a chance of having a few years of good health to yourself, instead of having to always dance to the beat of someone else's drum, and so thoughts on these types of 'exit plans' grow ever more louder...

I think I'm currently heading towards the point where I would be happy to drop the relative amount of current working hours that specifically relate to the part of my wages that regularly go towards my 'new investment' funds, and look to maintain the working hours that broadly pay for just my ongoing (non-savings-related) expenditure. I've considered this aspect quite a lot recently, and it makes sense in a lot of ways -

• It maintains 'steady state' spending from working wages, so no reduction experienced in current 'work-funded' quality of life
• It releases a good chunk of current working hours for much more 'free-time', and hence delivers a key 'baby step' feature towards full retirement, which is going to be important for me in a 'get used to the idea' aspect..
• Importantly, it 'puts off' the day when the FU pot actually needs to be 'deployed', so the internal growth of that pot can hopefully continue whilst other benefits are also experienced - a very important 'half-way house' position for me, I think...
• It allows a continued period of margin-monitoring of that FU pot, whilst not taking on the full risk of it not being adequate at this particular time - a classic 'hedging your bets' situation and a useful one at that...
• It potentially maintains the 'nuclear option' of being able to go back to full-time working if things 'don't work out' for whatever reason...

On the whole I think it's interesting to find that you're also somewhere near in terms of potential 'numbers-of-laps-left', and how consideration is importantly turning to just what pace we really need to be running at on these final corners, so thanks for airing your thoughts on your own situation, and I hope things work out for you with the near-term options that might become available.

One part of me wishes that we were in a much more settled and benign period, what with the many large-scale issues that have been thrown up in recent years, but then I'm also minded to think that we're collectively being given a series of much-needed stress-tests for free, and if we can maintain our Zen-like focus on staying the course, and still come out the other side with a plan that's then proved to be robust through these periods, then that's surely got to be a good thing, right??

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Dod101]

I am mesmerised by all the numbers that IAAG produces. All that I have ever been concerned about is that my annual income is rather more than my annual expenditure because for instance, for whatever reason, my income in the first three months of the year, or at least up until about now is far short of my required cash to meet my expenses. From next week onwards my dividend income builds up quite well but I need, and anyone living solely on dividend income needs, a substantial surplus in that holding account.

As finals start to come in during April, it usually gives scope for topping up that account again.

To balance each month's income and expenditure seems to me to be a very difficult task, although that may not be what he is attempting.

Dod

[Itsallaguess]

To balance each month's income and expenditure seems to me to be a very difficult task, although that may not be what he is attempting.

That's certainly not what I'm attempting Dod, and I thought I'd clearly covered this particular aspect in my opening post -

For clarity, I very much have the intention of using a 'holding account' that is planned to contain a level of funding to act as a partial 'emergency fund' (with the rest of my emergency fund held elsewhere in things like Premium Bonds etc..) and which is also planned to contain a separate level of 12-months of 'expenditure-level' cash, so that the holding-account can run with an expected year's worth of cash that can be accessed on a monthly basis, by way of a direct-debit into my main bank account, and which can then be 'back-filled' by the expected stream of ongoing dividends from my income-related portfolio.

I mention this because I'm often a little worried when I myself see 'monthly income' tables similar to the above, where income-investors sometimes seem to be looking to 'balance' their income-portfolio monthly payouts across all 12-months, to perhaps look to achieve 'smooth monthly payments' by way of dividend-payment dates, rather than doing so via a holding account process, and so I just wanted to make it clear that I'm absolutely in the 'holding account' bracket myself, and I have no general interest *at all* as to just which months receive which level of dividend payments...

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=33665

Regarding the numbers in the initial table, there's very little time at all spent on the production and maintenance of them, and they're a highly valuable part of my financial metrics in terms of getting a good understanding of my financial position as I move towards the potential for stepping back from my working life. I would consider it the height of irresponsibility for me *not* to be considering these important metrics before making what are potentially 'life-changing' decisions in terms of my career and future, long-term financial prospects...

Modern on-line accounts and available spreadsheet software makes these types of tasks simple, accurate, and very quick indeed, with all that's needed being a basic understanding of modern software.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Dod101]

Thanks. I picked that up wrongly. You are very fortunate to have the time to keep records as you are doing pre retirement. I was given three months notice when I was given early retirement and was thrust out into the world into retirement with a lump sum and basically told to get on with it. so we approach this from entirely different angles.

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that. The trouble is we do not know how much of a surplus over and above our normal expenditure needs to be factored in to cover that sort of thing.

Dod

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Thanks. I picked that up wrongly. You are very fortunate to have the time to keep records as you are doing pre retirement. I was given three months notice when I was given early retirement and was thrust out into the world into retirement with a lump sum and basically told to get on with it. so we approach this from entirely different angles.

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that. The trouble is we do not know how much of a surplus over and above our normal expenditure needs to be factored in to cover that sort of thing.

Dod

Off topic - Dod - you have heating? - eee that's posh You've clearly done an excellent job of dealing with your "imposed" retirement and I find that inspirational.

On topic - IAAG's record keeping is, to say the very lest, bloody impressive. That aside I think his view works for him and the record keeping is a reminder that he's making progress.

Take care

AiY(D)

[Dod101]

Thanks. I picked that up wrongly. You are very fortunate to have the time to keep records as you are doing pre retirement. I was given three months notice when I was given early retirement and was thrust out into the world into retirement with a lump sum and basically told to get on with it. so we approach this from entirely different angles.

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that. The trouble is we do not know how much of a surplus over and above our normal expenditure needs to be factored in to cover that sort of thing.

Dod

Off topic - Dod - you have heating? - eee that's posh You've clearly done an excellent job of dealing with your "imposed" retirement and I find that inspirational.

On topic - IAAG's record keeping is, to say the very lest, bloody impressive. That aside I think his view works for him and the record keeping is a reminder that he's making progress.

Take care

AiY(D)

As it happens my heating is from oil. So far, it looks as though that might be a little better than electricity but who knows? IAAG's record keeping is amazing and what matters for all of us is what works for us individually. Personally I keep a fairly detailed record of my expenses so that I know where I can cut down if I need to. I find that very helpful.

Dod

[TUK020]

If I can add a couple of points from my own experience:
Background: I stopped all paid work about 8 months ago, and had shifted down to a reduced hours (4 days a week) for the 18 months previous to that.

Reducing hours is a useful exercise, and brings home some interesting points.
I found my stress level overall was not so much correlated to the working hours, but more inversely correlated to the recovery time in between. Going from 5->4 days week work, increases your weekend by 50%.
At our stage in life, a very significant portion of your disposable income goes into savings for retirement. Reducing earnings but still keeping them at a level that covers your current expenditure - in effect stop saving extra - still builds your safety margin simply by postponing the point at which you draw savings/pension down.
The very progressive nature of our tax system means that the ratio of hours worked to net income is surprisingly non linear if you get anywhere close to either LTA on your pension assets, of withdrawal of personal allowances on your income. This was really brought home to me as I was trying to work out how to avoid a marginal tax rate of 2/3rds.
The right answer would have been to start drawing my pension and continue work 2 days a week and this would have kept my net income at the same level. Unfortunately this was incompatible with my role, so I bit the bullet, and stopped altogether.

Early days, but no regrets so far. Residual worry about what inflation is going to do to me.

[scotview]

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that.

At UNI around 1970, the entire engineering faculty had to read a book "Limits to Growth". I think that it is only now that we are beginning to see the true cost of things. For me energy and clean water are still incredibly cheap. Maybe our cost models should be adapted to factor in real costs.
Sorry if this is off topic.

[Dod101]

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that.

At UNI around 1970, the entire engineering faculty had to read a book "Limits to Growth". I think that it is only now that we are beginning to see the true cost of things. For me energy and clean water are still incredibly cheap. Maybe our cost models should be adapted to factor in real costs.
Sorry if this is off topic.

Whether energy is or was cheap I have no idea but it does not alter the fact that it is that sort of huge increase in costs that throws any budgeting out of the window.

Dod

[moorfield]

Back to the Zen for a while then, but progress is being made....

Following buys this week, my portfolio's forecast income has (provisionally) reached its target for this year thus I am now "hands off" until next January, unless it dips due to any unexpected dividend cuts whereupon I may need to intervene. It is likely to increase again over the summer as further dividend increases are announced. I may experiment with this a little and extend my period of "hands off" Zen deeper into 2023. Meanwhile, cash accumulates.

The annual target rate of increase through the combined effects of dividend increases, cuts, and reinvestment is +7.2% (doubles income in a decade), this was originally calibrated toward the ultimate goal of the portfolio which is a natural yield income exceeding the higher rate income tax threshold by the early 2030s. (I figure that's about as much as one wants to draw from a SIPP before being clobbered with tax.)

Another decade to go, progress is being made here too....

[Itsallaguess]

I found my stress level overall was not so much correlated to the working hours, but more inversely correlated to the recovery time in between.

Going from 5->4 days week work, increases your weekend by 50%.

I've heard a lot of people say similar things over the years, and I can fully appreciate that this is the case.

I think a plan to drop a single day is probably achievable for me in the short to medium term, but I've got a much more aggressive plan for dropping two days in mind that might yet materialise, depending on a number of factors over the next couple of years.

The idea of flipping my current 5/2 working-days to non-working-days on it's head, and turn it into a 3-day working week with a 4-day break feels a little ambitious right now, but it also feels like the sort of work/life balance shift that I'd love to be able to implement if my situation would allow for it, and I think aiming for that more aggressive outcome will do me good in terms of 'justifying' the current Zen-like grind over medium term...

At our stage in life, a very significant portion of your disposable income goes into savings for retirement.

Reducing earnings but still keeping them at a level that covers your current expenditure - in effect stop saving extra - still builds your safety margin simply by postponing the point at which you draw savings/pension down.

Yes, I think that's the landing-zone that I feel I'm mentally building a firm medium-term plan for, and it's nice to hear from people who've gone through a similar 'baby-step' situation and found that my hoped-for benefits were something they found through their own experience, so thanks for your thoughts on this.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[OhNoNotimAgain]

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that.

At UNI around 1970, the entire engineering faculty had to read a book "Limits to Growth". I think that it is only now that we are beginning to see the true cost of things. For me energy and clean water are still incredibly cheap. Maybe our cost models should be adapted to factor in real costs.
Sorry if this is off topic.

Like Malthus that book was completely wrong about everything.

It totally ignored the effect of price on production and consumption. High prices encouraged more production and recycling and reduced consumption. Simples.

Until this totally self-inflicted unneeded Covid lockdown, and now the Ukranian war, there was never a shortage of anything.

However, there will be an increasing shortage of labour in the developing world as our populations age.

[Itsallaguess]

What has bothered me over the years are things like the enormous rise in energy bills rapidly coming down the line and I am not sure that there is a huge amount that any of us can do about that.

At UNI around 1970, the entire engineering faculty had to read a book "Limits to Growth". I think that it is only now that we are beginning to see the true cost of things. For me energy and clean water are still incredibly cheap. Maybe our cost models should be adapted to factor in real costs.

Sorry if this is off topic.

Like Malthus that book was completely wrong about everything.

It totally ignored the effect of price on production and consumption. High prices encouraged more production and recycling and reduced consumption. Simples.

Until this totally self-inflicted unneeded Covid lockdown, and now the Ukranian war, there was never a shortage of anything.

However, there will be an increasing shortage of labour in the developing world as our populations age.

Can I please politely request that any further discussions around such Malthus-based side-topics are carried out on a different thread?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess