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Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
Newroad
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Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493186

Postby Newroad » April 9th, 2022, 9:13 pm

Evening All.

As alluded to on a couple of existing threads (happy to provide the details later, but want to keep this initial post as short as practical - alas, not very) I'm going to, indeed already am, conducting a real-world experiment on portfolio styles. In style of writing, I'm going to say "I" for ease - but in most cases, "I" means "we".

In the red-corner is something which loosely approximates a classic 60-40 portfolio. More specifically, it is 6 sub-portfolios: two SIPPs, two ISAs and two JISAs. They are not strictly targeting 60-40, but rather a linear equity holding between 78% (at birth) and 48% (if we make 100) with the balance being bonds and cash, based on some theoretic ideas derived from Robert Carver's book "Smart Portfolios".

In the blue-corner is something which is somewhat Pyad'ic HYPish (at least as far as I understand it) but also influenced by Carver's book. In short, I will buy one UK stock a month, rotating through the 11 sectors as defined by the GICS classification (11 "industries" in the ICB classication) on a risk (volatility) weighted basis - i.e. each sector will have a different cash weighting. Interestingly (and HYP'ers will be interested in this) Carver advocates using yield to determine picks within a sector, all other things being equal. Until the 11th sector is actually bought, each cycle, this will strictly be unbalanced, but the Sharpe ratio's are actually near enough their peak once you've purchased around 8 sectors (0.116) peaking at 11 sectors (0.117).

Both the red-corner and the blue-corner are not idealogically pure to Pyad, Carver or anyone else - they are both hybrids or interpretations to suit my circumstances. However, from that starting point, I'm going to try and do them in a disciplined manner in context - and in any case, I'm always dubious about zealot-like followers.

I'm going to measure on a total return basis - nothing else makes sense IMO - with unitised measurement. The red-corner is tax-sheltered, the blue-corner is completely non tax-sheltered. In the short term, this won't matter (see later) the should be few if any tax implications for the blue-corner. However, if that later becomes relevant, I'll cater for it appropriately in comparisons. I have no interest in deception, self or otherwise - this is my own money I'm risking! I admit that intellectually I'm currently in the red-corner, but

    1. I have extra funds which "need" investing which can't be housed in a tax-sheltered way, and
    2. I judge now might be a good time to "start" a HYP'ish strategy, if it's going to be right at all

The experiment will nominally run until my planned retirement, in around April 2031, or to such time as I decide to stop it. At that point, it will inform how I handle the remaining portfolios (the JISA's may be under separate control) during retirement.

I have already made the first two purchases for the blue-corner: RIO in March 2022 and BATS in April 2022. I will unitise twice a month as per my existing practise - once at start/end of month, once mid-month after the third Wednesday (the II free dealing day, when the red-corner is topped up). Each unit started at £100, but they won't start the experiment at that level, 01st April 2022, as they started at different times. The starting unit prices are

    Red Corner (Pseudo-Classic): 101.23
    Blue Corner (Pseudo-HYP): 103.28

The Red-Corner is an arithmetic mean of the following

    Mrs N ISA: 101.73 - MWY, VWRL, HDIV, VAGP
    Mrs N SIPP: 100.73 - ATST, VWRP, BIPS, VAGP
    Miss N JISA: 99.97 - FCIT, VWRL, BIPS, VAGP, MNP*
    Mstr N JISA: 100.38 - FCIT, VWRL, BIPS, VAGP, MNP*
    Mr N ISA: 101.82 - MWY, VWRL, HDIV, VAGP
    Mr N SIPP: 100.65 - ATST, VWRP, BIPS, VAGP

For purposes of indicative reporting, I think the mean will be close enough, but I will be capturing all and can dis-aggregate as needed on request down the track. I will probably do a full year report each April and an interim report each October, or thereabouts.

I hope this is of interest - if anyone has any questions arising, please ask - I will answer if practical.

Regards, Newroad

* I should note that MNP is purchased in a fixed amount each month, £50, due to grandparental contribution. This is taken into account in the equity ratio being targeted (as is Mrs N's company defined contribution pension) but only purchase levels for the first four items listed for each of the sub-portfolios varies from month to month to target the combined equity ratio

Moderator Message:
I have moved this topic from the HYP Practical Board to here, as this is a more appropriate place for this discussion.

TJH

IanTHughes
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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493199

Postby IanTHughes » April 9th, 2022, 9:56 pm

Newroad wrote:Each unit started at £100, but they won't start the experiment at that level, 01st April 2022, as they started at different times.

If you wish to compare the two strategies, you must start them with the same unit value, on the same date.

Otherwise, the early starter might simply benefit from a growing market that the late starter misses out on - or vice versa of course


Ian

Newroad
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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493200

Postby Newroad » April 9th, 2022, 10:04 pm

Hi Ian.

As long as one compares the growth from the starting point (date) of comparison - which I intend to - it will be just fine. That's why I stated the starting prices for the comparison.

The various unit prices are from my existing tracking thereof - I don't propose to go through the effort (and risk of error) of rebasing just for this thread.

Regards, Newroad

IanTHughes
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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493202

Postby IanTHughes » April 9th, 2022, 10:11 pm

Newroad wrote:Hi Ian.

As long as one compares the growth from the starting point (date) of comparison - which I intend to - it will be just fine. That's why I stated the starting prices for the comparison.

The various unit prices are from my existing tracking thereof - I don't propose to go through the effort (and risk of error) of rebasing just for this thread.

Ah well fair enough.

In which case I would suggest that you avoid ever mentioning the two unit values, even at the start as you did here:

Newroad wrote:Red Corner (Pseudo-Classic): 101.23
Blue Corner (Pseudo-HYP): 103.28

It will only confuse things.


Ian

Newroad
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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493208

Postby Newroad » April 9th, 2022, 10:24 pm

Understood, Ian.

Yes, I will focus on the relative movement in future updates, rather than absolute prices.

However, providing the absolute unit prices behind the movements, even if in parentheses afterwards, will probably happen - if for no other reason than it allows others to check my calculations! :)

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493345

Postby moorfield » April 10th, 2022, 2:37 pm

All this looks overcooked to me, not sure what's trying to be achieved here?

My days of "experimenting" with my hard earned and saved are drawing to a close. My portfolio income is not too far away from the original target I set out 15 years ago, so a new era of consolidation and simplification dawns for me.

Incidentally, I am also aiming to retire (early) in April 2031. There is really only one question you need to answer: what income do you want or need from your investments then? And work backwards from there.

Newroad
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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#493704

Postby Newroad » April 12th, 2022, 10:44 am

Hi Ian.

I've partially acquiesced to your request and rebased the Pseudo-Classic unitisation to the same £100 start as the Pseudo-HYP for reporting purposes on this thread only. Start of FY (end of March) rebased figures below, from a re-based £100 mid-March start

    Red Corner (Pseudo-Classic): £103.44
    Blue Corner (Pseudo-HYP): £103.28

I hope that helps.

[Hi Moorfield] It's a limited experiment, with about £20K a year (though this may fluctuate) which needs to find an investment home that, alas, cannot be covered in a tax-sheltered way. In looking at this

    1. Some investments I might otherwise consider (e.g. ETF's) may have tax complexities I would rather not deal with, and
    2. I judge, rightly or wrongly, that it is currently a relatively good time to consider UK and/or higher yielding equities, and
    3. £20K per annum won't move the dial one way or the other much for our combined investments, but
    4. If it performs relatively well over a sustained period, e.g. the nine years suggested, it may provide a useful option for retirement, conversely
    5. If it performs relatively poorly, it's unlikely to perform terribly in absolute terms, so won't be the end of the earth - see (3) above

Hence, now is the time to give it a go, if I'm going to at all.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Pseudo-classic vs pseudo-HYP: A real world experiment

#529109

Postby Newroad » September 10th, 2022, 7:39 pm

Evening All.

I'm a fair way into this now. My guess is that I'll end up holding 22 UK equities (two from each of the 11 "sectors") at which point, I'll then focus on rebalancing or replacing as needed.

Current holdings are BATS, GSK, LAND, LGEN, RIO, TW., VOD, SMDS. The next three off the rank are nominally SSE, BP. and SGE.

I'm interested in the views of people on the utility and energy sector choices in context. I'm going to be true to the "theory" and invest in the sectors, but

    I could choose different HYP'ish stocks from those two sectors, and
    I could put off the decision for another month (until November, I've already invested for September) and go with SGE first

The reason I'm asking, of course, pertains to the current energy crisis and potential ramifications.

Regards, Newroad


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