Portfolio falls

[simoan]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

As you know, I do not run an income portfolio! As of close today I am down 4.25% on a TR basis and down 6.45% excluding dividends. Given the times we live in, is it any surprise my biggest gainer (+62% YTD) is a pawnbroker?

All the best, Si

[Dod101]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

As you know, I do not run an income portfolio! As of close today I am down 4.25% on a TR basis and down 6.45% excluding dividends. Given the times we live in, is it any surprise my biggest gainer (+62% YTD) is a pawnbroker?

All the best, Si

Your pawnbroker was a good choice! I am afraid that I fall into the category of ‘old’ by your’s and almost anyone’s definition but I like to think I am conservative and I think my likely outturn is going to be OK although we (or at least I) do not know what will be the effect of the Autumn Statement next week.

Dod

[simoan]

Your pawnbroker was a good choice! I am afraid that I fall into the category of ‘old’ by your’s and almost anyone’s definition but I like to think I am conservative and I think my likely outturn is going to be OK although we (or at least I) do not know what will be the effect of the Autumn Statement next week.

Dod

Well, a pawnbroker is the ultimate play on a recession. I originally bought because it is anti-cyclical and profits get a lift from a strong gold price. The gold price hasn't really helped recently, but the pledge book will clearly grow in the coming months and they recently did a placing (that I took part in) to allow further investment in new shops.

Overall, I'm extremely underwhelmed by my performance this year, nothing to crow about. Like you I have received a record high amount of dividends this year and even though my portfolio dividend yield is low, I'm luck enough that I could easily live off that income only should I choose to.

All the best, Si

[BullDog]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

Thanks to a pretty perky end to the week I'm now at a round a 6% drop from portfolio high which was Q4 2021 in my case. I am quite content with that seeing as the REITs I hold have been absolutely dreadful in capital performance since covid hit. Fortunately, the income produced by REITs has so far been pretty stable.

[Dod101]

Pretty much the same outcome here too. If I end the year less than 10% down on the same time 2021, I shall be content. Never know, if we have a Santa Rally now to the year end I might even break even. That would be a good result. I think 2023 is going to be an awful year for millions of families. Next winter the fuel bills could be absolutely horrendous if, as planned, government support finishes at the end of March. 60p per unit of electricity could easily be with us next winter as things stand.

Thanks to a pretty perky end to the week I'm now at a round a 6% drop from portfolio high which was Q4 2021 in my case. I am quite content with that seeing as the REITs I hold have been absolutely dreadful in capital performance since covid hit. Fortunately, the income produced by REITs has so far been pretty stable.

We seem to be moving in parallel, because I could just about have written these remarks myself although the only REITs I have are Segro and Primary Health Props, both well down.

Dod

[melonfool]

The strange thing is that people still seem to be spending money. I took my sister and husband out for lunch today and difficult to get a table and a couple of hotels that I like going to on the west coast of Scotland are fully booked, in a very wet November!

I know, and you should see what it is like in London. Every time I hear someone whining about the alleged "cost of living crisis" I feel like suggesting that they try and book a flight, hotel or restaurant in or out of London. There are a heck of a lot of people with a heck of a lot of money out there, else we would not be seeing the rampant price inflation in services, hospitality and travel.

The Nasdaq is up 6% today, and the Dow was up a 1,000 points earlier. I suspect you re-check your portfolio again

There are far far fewer of these services available as restaurants and pubs are shutting by the dozen, flight schedules have been reduced, where I am trains are not yet back to full pre covid timetables, theatres and cinemas are doing fewer showings, and closing (looks like the ENO might close now due to removal of its funding) - so while it seems busier, it's not. It is fewer people trying to buy even fewer services. And those things shutting means fewer jobs and this will filter through to even fewer customers shortly.

In my village alone, within the past 12m, two hotels have shut, one hairdresser, one farm, shop and one tearoom. The theatre has had to reduce its showings as they cannot afford to run the building.

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Art ... od-in-2021

https://www.timeout.com/london/restaura ... r-lockdown

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ove ... 19758.html

https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/trave ... timetables

It doesn't take a genius to see this happening and understand that fewer services means the remaining services will be harder to book.

I am also finding that when I do book things, there are staff shortages and everything takes longer, which must surely lead to places having a backlog of customers - I went to Pizza Express in London last week, we had booked, but people were queuing out the door for tables, they could have had ours reasonably quickly because we weren't intending to hang around, having theatre tickets as we did, but it took us over half an hour to get our food which was a very simply order of three pizzas.

Thus the queue built up and the place seemed busier than it really was!

Mel

[Arborbridge]

It doesn't take a genius to see this happening and understand that fewer services means the remaining services will be harder to book.

I am also finding that when I do book things, there are staff shortages and everything takes longer, which must surely lead to places having a backlog of customers - I went to Pizza Express in London last week, we had booked, but people were queuing out the door for tables, they could have had ours reasonably quickly because we weren't intending to hang around, having theatre tickets as we did, but it took us over half an hour to get our food which was a very simply order of three pizzas.

Thus the queue built up and the place seemed busier than it really was!

Mel

Interesting point, and a reduction in services must have an impact, as you say. Though in my "world" I'm not sure how I can show this. For example. the train from Chichester to Victoria yesterday was the normal service frequency and 12 coaches - it was packed and later was standing room only. I've not seen a regular service this busy for a long time outside rush hour - it was up to Tube levels. Sadlers Wells was a complete sell out, and the bus was crowded. The streets round shaftesbury avenue etc were totally packed with people milling about. Of course, it was Saturday which may have accounted for it, but it seemed a healthy amount of activity - unless it was part of a last fling before austerity bites. Maybe this is just the beginning of the pre-Christmas panic, but it was very busy.

BTW, in our local area, we seem to have a renaissance of hospitalilty - with two places opening a-fresh and difficulty getting bookings. Admittedly one pub has closed but it was pretty moribund for years. Local pubs around Sussex seem to be thriving if they offer good food - at the moment. But there are also many more signs in windows advertising for staff.


Arb.

[Dod101]

It doesn't take a genius to see this happening and understand that fewer services means the remaining services will be harder to book.

I am also finding that when I do book things, there are staff shortages and everything takes longer, which must surely lead to places having a backlog of customers - I went to Pizza Express in London last week, we had booked, but people were queuing out the door for tables, they could have had ours reasonably quickly because we weren't intending to hang around, having theatre tickets as we did, but it took us over half an hour to get our food which was a very simply order of three pizzas.

Thus the queue built up and the place seemed busier than it really was!

Mel

Interesting point, and a reduction in services must have an impact, as you say. Though in my "world" I'm not sure how I can show this. For example. the train from Chichester to Victoria yesterday was the normal service frequency and 12 coaches - it was packed and later was standing room only. I've not seen a regular service this busy for a long time outside rush hour - it was up to Tube levels. Sadlers Wells was a complete sell out, and the bus was crowded. The streets round shaftesbury avenue etc were totally packed with people milling about. Of course, it was Saturday which may have accounted for it, but it seemed a healthy amount of activity - unless it was part of a last fling before austerity bites. Maybe this is just the beginning of the pre-Christmas panic, but it was very busy.

BTW, in our local area, we seem to have a renaissance of hospitalilty - with two places opening a-fresh and difficulty getting bookings. Admittedly one pub has closed but it was pretty moribund for years. Local pubs around Sussex seem to be thriving if they offer good food - at the moment. But there are also many more signs in windows advertising for staff.


Arb.

In my part of the world, I do not recognise Mel's comments, although November is a quiet month anyway, but Edinburgh for instance is very busy although many are international tourists. If many places are closing, why is there still a staff shortage in those that remain open?

Anyway, this is all off topic.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

Current falls over one year to the 11th November:

HYP: -3.8% (income units) -0.4% (acc units)
income ITs: -4.7%
income OEICS: -9.7%

And for interest, my investment in the Invesco Monthly income plus fund*: -15.37% or with interest added back, -11%

* this fund is a strategic bond fund, 80% bonds, 20% equities.

This is all a passing fancy, of course, aided by big rises at the end of the week. However, I'm pleased to see that for this particular slice of time, the HYP can hold its head up.

Arb.

[Steveam]

I haven’t read the whole of this thread …

I’m about 6% down in U.K. £.

Should I (one) be considering currency changes?

Best wishes,

Steve

[Newroad]

Hi All.

For ours (the graph itself may be interesting to some)



If that's not easily visible, the thick black line, "Combined", i.e. the ISA's, JISA's, SIPP's together, are down about 7.9% from the start of the year (and coincidentally, the peak). This is in Total Return units terms, where the units are calculated twice monthly.

The pseudo-HYP hasn't been going since the start of the year, but roughly mid-March, and is down about 7.7% since then, on the same basis.

Regards, Newroad

[Arborbridge]

Hi All.

For ours (the graph itself may be interesting to some)



If that's not easily visible, the thick black line, "Combined", i.e. the ISA's, JISA's, SIPP's together, are down about 7.9% from the start of the year (and coincidentally, the peak). This is in Total Return units terms, where the units are calculated twice monthly.

The pseudo-HYP hasn't been going since the start of the year, but roughly mid-March, and is down about 7.7% since then, on the same basis.

Regards, Newroad

I wonder if one of us has made an error somewhere? I notice your TR looks more in the same ball park as my OEICS, ITs or HYP. Mind you, my numbers are for a whole year, not YTD.

[Newroad]

Hi Arb.

Anything is possible, though I doubt it (for us both). Which figures(s) specifically are you concerned about?

Also, you can see past year as well as YTD from the graph. In broad terms, for "Combined", its about 7.6% down over 12 months.

Regards, Newroad

[simoan]

I haven’t read the whole of this thread …

I’m about 6% down in U.K. £.

Should I (one) be considering currency changes?

Best wishes,

Steve

IMHO you at least need to recognise the effect of them on your results and not get too excited, but it's impossible to back out currency effects completely. All I know is that USD strength has saved from me from far bigger falls and boosted the value of my USD dividend stream in GBP. For instance, my US portfolio is down -13.7 % in USD terms but only -1.3% in GBP. And 26.7% of my portfolio dividends are paid in USD which has further boosted my TR.

All the best, Si

[micrographia]

In my part of the world, I do not recognise Mel's comments, although November is a quiet month anyway, but Edinburgh for instance is very busy although many are international tourists. If many places are closing, why is there still a staff shortage in those that remain open?

Anyway, this is all off topic.

Dod

Probably for the same reasons that explain why we are both in recession yet have record levels of employment, while currently being unable to fill lower paid service industry vacancies that used to be taken by, er, <tries not to stare at the enormous elephant standing in the corner of the room> .

Not massively off topic, if we are interested in how this recession (and that elephant) will impact the ability of various UK industries to generate income?

Regards, EEM

[OhNoNotimAgain]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

You might find this index interesting as a comparator benchmark

https://factsheets.elstonsolutions.co.u ... _Index.pdf

[Dod101]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

You might find this index interesting as a comparator benchmark

https://factsheets.elstonsolutions.co.u ... _Index.pdf

Thanks. I cannot get a direct comparison since the index investment that you have highlighted reinvests dividends and thus does not contain a dividend yield. That basically is why I invest because I live off the dividends. My yield at the moment is around 4.5%

Dod

[vand]

One should always think in real terms - while my HYP is down probably no more than 2% when adjusted for cashflows, in reality its down more like 12% in real terms, which is how I personally think about my wealth and investments.

You can't get away from having to factor in inflation. You company grew earnings by 10%? Great, except that it didn't grow at all in real terms.

[OhNoNotimAgain]

I run an essentially income portfolio with a few growth shares and have been taking a look at how the portfolio has been doing, so that I do not get too much of a shock at year end when I take a detailed look. To my surprise, I am down only about 11% overall but the real surprise was the tobacco shares where Imperial is up by 33% and BAT by 24%, that is after years of disappointment on the capital front, but always with good yields! Shell of course has been the star with a rise of 47%, I have taken a modest profit recently.

The year end was an almost all time peak for me at least, and since then there have been a few horrors, Segro down 45%, Scottish Mortgage down 43.5% and, a bit of a surprise, Admiral down 37%. The latter is surely oversold.

Income wise, I will have my best year ever since I am within a whisper of my previous all time high.

If things do not collapse in the next few weeks, it will not be nearly as bad a year as I had at one time thought it would be but it has been a real roller coaster so far.

Dod

You might find this index interesting as a comparator benchmark

https://factsheets.elstonsolutions.co.u ... _Index.pdf

Thanks. I cannot get a direct comparison since the index investment that you have highlighted reinvests dividends and thus does not contain a dividend yield. That basically is why I invest because I live off the dividends. My yield at the moment is around 4.5%

Dod

Indices are not just there for decoration.

[Newroad]

Hi All.

It seems an appropriate time to resurrect this thread (on a now annual basis, i.e. falls for last year).

You can see mine/ours below



In broad terms, down 9.24% nominal last year on the same basis as described above (total return, nominal etc). Also worth noting that the pseudo-HYP experiment is currently performing worse. These are described by the thick black and yellowish lines respectively.

Regards, Newroad