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Boeing

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dspp
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Re: Boeing

#291493

Postby dspp » March 17th, 2020, 9:10 am

77ss wrote:
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:....There are still arguments being held over the forum that is the internet saying the US Government cannot allow Boeing to fail. I've never argued and never will argue against that point. But protecting national interests is not the same as protecting shareholders. In any scenario where the US steps in to save Boeing the shareholders are, in my opinion, toast.

....


The share price is now down to $130. Painful and worrying for shareholders.

As a crude approximation, isn't Boeing two businesses? Armaments and Civil Aviation?

What is to stop a split, followed by a Chapter 11 for the Civil Aviation bit? Protecting the US national interests.

Just an idle thought.


1. The product split is not as hard and fast as that. For example the civil 737 is the basis of the military MPA and AWACS aircraft (up until now the NG version, though I am not sure whether next release of Wedgetail was going to be on the Max, as the NG line had shut). Similar for the tankers (which is a very big product line run), etc.
2. The production line split / synergy matters (both people & machinery).
3. The design skillbase is pooled.
4. The through-cycle financial viability of military without civil is questionable, and vice versa.

Therefore if they did what you proposed then I think they would subsequently need to recombine them in some way. I personally put Boeing in the "too big to fail" category for the USA, but as others have alluded to that does not mean that existing shareholders will be protected. If anything I think that CV19 and impending recession gives USA government the perfect cover to step in.

regards, dspp

EmptyGlass
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Re: Boeing

#291810

Postby EmptyGlass » March 17th, 2020, 10:37 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/boeing-seeking-tens-of-billions-in-us-government-loan-guarantees-sources-say.html?&amp&qsearchterm=boeing

Boeing is seeking “tens of billions of dollars” in U.S. government loan guarantees and other assistance, two people briefed on the matter told Reuters.

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Boeing

#291815

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 17th, 2020, 11:07 pm

EmptyGlass wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/boeing-seeking-tens-of-billions-in-us-government-loan-guarantees-sources-say.html?&amp&qsearchterm=boeing

Boeing is seeking “tens of billions of dollars” in U.S. government loan guarantees and other assistance, two people briefed on the matter told Reuters.

I suspect tomorrow Boeing's share price will plummet.

And I'll say it one more time. In all of this the lives of 346 people and those who survive them will be forgotten.

There's now got to be a serious doubt that the Max will return to service. Without reassurance that the Max will be commercially viable I cannot see the US Government wanting to "prop-up" that part of the business. If Boeing want 10's of billions to [I assume] return the max to service it may simply become more viable to develop a new aircraft. Highly speculative I know.

The great American bean counter has truly been found wanting today.

AiYn'U

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Boeing

#293160

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 22nd, 2020, 12:21 pm

22nd March 2020
Boeing CEO gives up pay, suspends dividend as company seeks coronavirus bailout
The Boeing Company announced a series of moves Friday as it seeks $60 billion in federal assistance for the aerospace industry amid the widening economic crisis. CEO Dave Calhoun and Chairman Larry Kellner will give up their pay until the end of the year and the company will suspend its dividend, Boeing said in a press release.

I read this as "without $60bn Boeing is not going to survive". I also suspect that it's inevitable that Calhoun will leave quite soon. He was, after all, on the board of directors when Boeing's vehicles fell out of the sky.

The share price has fallen another 25% and sits around $95. I have to say it still beggars belief that this stock should be valued so highly.

No dividend payments should have been made after the crashes and the company should have adopted a much more defensive position. It didn't. It continued to stick its arrogant head up its own [proverbial] backside. From the outset this company has always been behind the curve. The result is they are now effectively bust.

There's a huge difference between what this company says about its finances and what they actually are. I suspect they may well have convinced themselves from the outset that they are just too important to fail. During which time they continued to spend money on dividends, work-in-progress and bonus agreements to overpaid directors.

I have no doubt that the US government will underpin Boeing. However, the terms will not see much, if any protection for current shareholders. I am beginning to sense that in the long term Boeing will be broken up.

AiYn'U

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Re: Boeing

#293723

Postby EmptyGlass » March 24th, 2020, 2:26 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/boeing-ceo-will-take-a-few-years-to-get-balance-sheet-back-to-state-before-coronavirus-and-737-max-issues.html

Interesting :-
"The company is a major defense contractor and said that the U.S. Department of Defense is working on accelerating payments, Calhoun said."

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Boeing

#293840

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 24th, 2020, 9:59 pm

24th march 2020
Trump says he will not let Boeing go out of business

"And they're going to pay interest and they're probably going to give stock in their company to the people of our country, to the taxpayers of our country, to the citizens of our country," Trump said.

Boeing CFO says aerospace industry needs credit urgently, markets closed to new debt
Boeing Co’s (BA.N) chief financial officer said on Tuesday the U.S. aerospace industry urgently needs credit to cope with the coronavirus pandemic but “markets essentially are closed” to new debt.

Boeing CEO says he’d resist aid if U.S. demands equity stake
“I want (the government) to support the credit markets, provide liquidity. Allow us to borrow against our future,” Dave Calhoun said in an interview.

AiYn'U

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Re: Boeing

#293957

Postby EmptyGlass » March 25th, 2020, 10:04 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/boeing-plans-737-max-production-restart-by-may-sources-say.html

Boeing plans to restart 737 Max production by May, sources say.

(I'll believe it when I see it.)

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Boeing

#294116

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 25th, 2020, 4:20 pm

EmptyGlass wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/boeing-ceo-will-take-a-few-years-to-get-balance-sheet-back-to-state-before-coronavirus-and-737-max-issues.html

Interesting :-
"The company is a major defense contractor and said that the U.S. Department of Defense is working on accelerating payments, Calhoun said."

I've been thinking about the US Government using Covid 19 as a means to throw a wad of cash at Boeing. If the US argue that it's only fair then they can't argue that Airbus couldn't and shouldn't do the same and acquire a huge chunk of European money. Could almost be a double edged sword.

AiYn'U

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Boeing

#294124

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 25th, 2020, 4:25 pm

EmptyGlass wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/boeing-plans-737-max-production-restart-by-may-sources-say.html

Boeing plans to restart 737 Max production by May, sources say.

(I'll believe it when I see it.)

It sounds like another roll of the dice for a desperate gambler. Literally Boeing have no other route to take. They are simply going where the gorilla takes them. If they aren't selling aircraft and they aren't why build more? With C19 threatening airlines balance sheets the risk to Boeing is some large cancellations of outstanding orders. They have to build more to keep their workforce and supply chain intact. Catch 22?

AiYn'U

BobGe
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Re: Boeing

#294309

Postby BobGe » March 26th, 2020, 4:03 am

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Literally Boeing have no other route to take.
Buzzzzzz... Deviation?

dspp
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Re: Boeing

#295996

Postby dspp » March 31st, 2020, 10:22 am

These P8 are 737-NG plus lots of modifications. They are not based on the 737-MAX.

"The US Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded Boeing USD1.5 billion to build P-8A Poseidon maritime multimission mission aircraft (MMA) for the US Navy (USN), South Korea and New Zealand."

https://www.janes.com/article/95210/boe ... n-contract

I am sure great care will be taken to channel the maximum military orders into Boeing over the coming years.

regards, dspp

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Re: Boeing

#296227

Postby monabri » March 31st, 2020, 6:35 pm

How are Boeing going to build anything? Aren't they on lockdown?

Regarding support...there will be lots of research contracts with massive margins as well. All good value for tax dollars.... .... ..


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