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VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

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dspp
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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329365

Postby dspp » July 29th, 2020, 9:57 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:
Well us engineers, and those eco people who do their research are not.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articl ... conundrum/
Indeed there are many articles on the subject in this months mag.




Thanks for that interesting read. When we hear about various "green" initiatives, one always wonders about how sound the research is behind it and whether all factors are truly accounted for. Nice to know there's some detailed thinking going on!

Arb.


There is a heck of a lot of solid thinking behind BEV, when done right.

Try this for transparent reporting https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2019-te ... report.pdf

- dspp

dspp
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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329383

Postby dspp » July 29th, 2020, 11:09 am

Howard wrote:
Howard

PS By coincidence today my BMW asked me when I wanted my OTA software update. So some German brands can do this.


Interesting. Is that for:
a) data update (e.g. maps);
b) non-core update (e.g. infotainment operating system);
c) core update (the actual safety-critical operating system)

?

regards, dspp

Howard
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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329494

Postby Howard » July 29th, 2020, 7:51 pm

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
Howard

PS By coincidence today my BMW asked me when I wanted my OTA software update. So some German brands can do this.


Interesting. Is that for:
a) data update (e.g. maps);
b) non-core update (e.g. infotainment operating system);
c) core update (the actual safety-critical operating system)

?

regards, dspp


It was an infotainment and satnav update. (For an ICE 5 series).

regards

Howard

PS When I drove a BMW 330e, there were minor OTA updates which could possibly be classed as safety-critical as they involved the electric motor control. But at the two-year service, the dealer kept the car overnight because the update was substantial and presumably not OTA.

dspp
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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329496

Postby dspp » July 29th, 2020, 8:00 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
Howard

PS By coincidence today my BMW asked me when I wanted my OTA software update. So some German brands can do this.


Interesting. Is that for:
a) data update (e.g. maps);
b) non-core update (e.g. infotainment operating system);
c) core update (the actual safety-critical operating system)

?

regards, dspp


It was an infotainment and satnav update. (For an ICE 5 series).

regards

Howard

PS When I drove a BMW 330e, there were minor OTA updates which could possibly be classed as safety-critical as they involved the electric motor control. But at the two-year service, the dealer kept the car overnight because the update was substantial and presumably not OTA.


Thanks, useful to know that BMW are mostly at level a) on my list, maybe b). As far as I can see the VAG VW id3 is problematic both because they cannot get b) or c) working.

regards, dspp

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329512

Postby Mike4 » July 29th, 2020, 9:39 pm

Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:
Howard

PS By coincidence today my BMW asked me when I wanted my OTA software update. So some German brands can do this.


Interesting. Is that for:
a) data update (e.g. maps);
b) non-core update (e.g. infotainment operating system);
c) core update (the actual safety-critical operating system)

?

regards, dspp


It was an infotainment and satnav update. (For an ICE 5 series).

regards

Howard

PS When I drove a BMW 330e, there were minor OTA updates which could possibly be classed as safety-critical as they involved the electric motor control. But at the two-year service, the dealer kept the car overnight because the update was substantial and presumably not OTA.


This strikes me as insane. I predict a strengthening second hand market for vehicles that don't need an internet connection or software that needs updating, in the fullness of time.

Dinosaur? Moi?

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329520

Postby vrdiver » July 29th, 2020, 10:22 pm

Out of curiosity, does anybody know how secure the end-to-end OTA update process is? I'm asking because a malicious "hack" could crucify a company's stock value...

VRD

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329521

Postby Howard » July 29th, 2020, 10:23 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Howard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Interesting. Is that for:
a) data update (e.g. maps);
b) non-core update (e.g. infotainment operating system);
c) core update (the actual safety-critical operating system)

?

regards, dspp


It was an infotainment and satnav update. (For an ICE 5 series).

regards

Howard

PS When I drove a BMW 330e, there were minor OTA updates which could possibly be classed as safety-critical as they involved the electric motor control. But at the two-year service, the dealer kept the car overnight because the update was substantial and presumably not OTA.


This strikes me as insane. I predict a strengthening second hand market for vehicles that don't need an internet connection or software that needs updating, in the fullness of time.

Dinosaur? Moi?


It's painless. The car has its own sim card. What's not to like about an up to date map? It also helps the car to give an accurate forecast of major hold-ups ahead. As most of my driving is on major roads, I have saved hours from avoiding queues on motorways ahead of me. On several occasions it has been relaxing to drive beside motorways jammed with queues which take an hour or more to navigate. I can remember at least two occasions where I avoided a queue which took several hours to clear, sadly one where a fatal lorry collision occurred around half an hour ahead of me.

Without the accurate prediction of delays ahead I would have been trapped and delayed on many journeys.

This sort of technology is vital for VW to perfect as well as the more sophisticated controls mentioned by dspp. Mrs H's Golf SatNav has a more primitive predictive facility but it isn't very good.

regards

Howard

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329529

Postby Mike4 » July 29th, 2020, 11:06 pm

Howard wrote:It's painless. The car has its own sim card. What's not to like about an up to date map?


I guess I misunderstood. I thought the OS for the car itself needed updating periodically, like one's komputa, not just the maps.

Mind you, I can get around perfectly well using the maps printed in the 1950s that belonged to my dad. Nothing much seems to have moved!

:D

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329539

Postby Urbandreamer » July 30th, 2020, 12:19 am

vrdiver wrote:Out of curiosity, does anybody know how secure the end-to-end OTA update process is? I'm asking because a malicious "hack" could crucify a company's stock value...

VRD


I can't comment about if they have made mistakes, but ignoring the fact that we are talking cars, It's been known in the software business for at least 20 years that this is an issue. About 15-20 years ago I read about a disgruntled employee using software to attack drinking and waste water in OZ. Then there was something called Stuxnet, Though in fact an attack on Russian gas pipelines predated it (it came to light later).

Can I ask you to look at your address bar when reading this and note that it's https(encrypted) rather than http.
TLF uses encryption! It does so that I can't find your password and pretend to be you (difficult but possible without the encryption). I suspect that car manufacturers will adopt a middle road. OTA updates will be have a range of security, though I could be wrong. I HOPE that they will allow an insecure method of update, in conjunction with a secure method.

Why? Well to allow after market changes and continuing support by those who love cars abandoned by the manufacturer.
A method would be to use normal easy and secure methods to get it to the dealer, and an insecure method to get it into the car.

I should at this point explain that I know this is not the method adopted by Tesla. They communicate directly to the car and as I understand may update the car without it visiting the dealership. I wouldn't be surprised if this became more common. That method HAS to be made secure, as I'm certain they know.

Arborbridge
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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329553

Postby Arborbridge » July 30th, 2020, 6:54 am

Howard wrote:Without the accurate prediction of delays ahead I would have been trapped and delayed on many journeys.

This sort of technology is vital for VW to perfect as well as the more sophisticated controls mentioned by dspp. Mrs H's Golf SatNav has a more primitive predictive facility but it isn't very good.

regards

Howard


It's an interesting question whether one can accurately "predict" delays ahead. I use the usual navigator on Android which is useful in this respect but how detailed can anything like that be, whatever system is being used? Perhaps not as difficult as forecasting the stockmarket, but traffic does morph as time goes one.

Well and good occasionally following alternative suggested routes (clearly good for humungous motorway jams) , but quite often alternative routes get re-routed as everyone else is doing the same, and I sometimes wonder on a long journey whether one would have been better just staying put in the original traffic jam. Of course, one can never know for sure - just as one cannot be sure that chopping and changing investments does any good.

Whether in built car nav systems are any better in this respect, I don't know, but that depends on the amount of data collected and I guess Google has as much as anyone else to play with. I'm happy enough with "Rita" - (Rita the router) on my Android phone for my sort of usage and can't imagine a built in system would be anything other than something else to go wrong and cost the earth to change.

Arb.

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329582

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 8:45 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Whether in built car nav systems are any better in this respect, I don't know, but that depends on the amount of data collected and I guess Google has as much as anyone else to play with. I'm happy enough with "Rita" - (Rita the router) on my Android phone for my sort of usage and can't imagine a built in system would be anything other than something else to go wrong and cost the earth to change.

Arb.


Google uses real-time data to update the optimal routing solution as you drive. Your phone is telling Google where it is, from that Google can calculate traffic speed and density, and that data is continuously fed into the routing calculation for your personal destination. Also of course Google is able to periodically refresh the base-maps that are present on your phone (the downloaded ones), and of course it both batch-updates and continuously updates the cloud-based 'central' maps. Apple does a similar thing.

Some of the car manufacturers do some of the above, for the newer models. They have tried to work together to build a system that allows them to deliver all of the above, but they really struggle with the business case (because they are competing with 'free') and with the underlying technology/culture/integration/connectivity. It was VAG+BMW+MB that bought NokiaMaps as part of that effort, there are others. It is barely working, none of them have a genuine global solution for all their cars, that is financially viable. Their alternative is to become a corporate customer of Google or Apple. You can see where this is going ....

regards, dspp

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329598

Postby richfool » July 30th, 2020, 9:28 am

I just heard on Bloomberg that VW are cutting their dividend.

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329615

Postby richfool » July 30th, 2020, 10:17 am

Some info on the VW dividend cut:
(Bloomberg) -- Volkswagen AG cut its dividend after losing 2.4 billion euros ($2.8 billion) in the second quarter, when the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered showrooms and factories in key markets.

The German manufacturer lowered its proposed 2019 payout by a quarter -- to 4.86 euros per preferred share -- after global deliveries slumped in the six months through June. VW expects markets to recover in the second half after business in July improved from the previous month.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-cu ... 50891.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0 ... -dividend/

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... on-h1-loss

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329653

Postby dspp » July 30th, 2020, 11:45 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
richfool wrote:I just heard on Bloomberg that VW are cutting their dividend.

That's another idea binned then. I'm sure the dividend cover was between 3 and 4 when I looked. Perhaps they're diverting more cash from dividends into accelerating the BEV programme. They have much catching up to do.

RVF


Their own estimate is that they are 10-years behind Tesla. Within VAG (VW) they call it the "catch-up-with-Tesla" project. Since Tesla is really only 12-years old they are not doing so badly.

The question is whether Tesla are accelerating away from all of the dino-juice companies, or whether some can claw this 10-year gap back, before they run out of resources to stay in the race.

regards, dspp

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329745

Postby Howard » July 30th, 2020, 3:45 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Howard wrote:Without the accurate prediction of delays ahead I would have been trapped and delayed on many journeys.

This sort of technology is vital for VW to perfect as well as the more sophisticated controls mentioned by dspp. Mrs H's Golf SatNav has a more primitive predictive facility but it isn't very good.

regards

Howard


It's an interesting question whether one can accurately "predict" delays ahead. I use the usual navigator on Android which is useful in this respect but how detailed can anything like that be, whatever system is being used? Perhaps not as difficult as forecasting the stockmarket, but traffic does morph as time goes one.

Well and good occasionally following alternative suggested routes (clearly good for humungous motorway jams) , but quite often alternative routes get re-routed as everyone else is doing the same, and I sometimes wonder on a long journey whether one would have been better just staying put in the original traffic jam. Of course, one can never know for sure - just as one cannot be sure that chopping and changing investments does any good.

Whether in built car nav systems are any better in this respect, I don't know, but that depends on the amount of data collected and I guess Google has as much as anyone else to play with. I'm happy enough with "Rita" - (Rita the router) on my Android phone for my sort of usage and can't imagine a built in system would be anything other than something else to go wrong and cost the earth to change.

Arb.


The problem with a discussion like this is that most of the contributors are giving opinions on technology without any real-life experience of driving the cars and using the technology.

I’m lucky enough to have driven lots of cars and chose a BMW because, to me, as a driver (rather than an investor), it had a lot of advantages which suited my kind of driving. One of them is being able to sit in my study, planning a drive to a destination I haven’t visited before and sending a message to the car for an OTA update to the SatNav which works seamlessly as I start my journey the next day. To me this is worth a lot. It saves the dangerous fiddling with a touchscreen whilst driving at the start of a journey.

The day before yesterday I had to come back from near Moreton in Marsh past Oxford and, on setting off, the car warned me that there was a queue on the Southbound A34 which might take up to an hour to get through. It was nice to join the A34 at the bottom of the queue without running into any traffic.

The BMW infotainment system is a joy to use and does not distract one from the road ahead.

I have an acquaintance with a Tesla who has admitted that, whilst the car is said to be technologically advanced, he finds it less pleasant to drive than his previous Merc. Ironically we UK tax-payers have subsidised his Tesla and its running costs so much that it is a no-brainer for him, as a very wealthy chairman of his company, to gratefully accept our bounty and drive a less attractive car.

And getting back to VW, their SatNav, control on Mrs H’s 2018 Golf is light years behind the BMW system. Like the Tesla, one has to “dab” a touchscreen and on my local roads it’s hit and miss whilst driving on a typical road surface.

Possibly VW will be launching a brilliant, affordable, BEV in the next month or two. The ID3 looks like a car which may reinforce VW’s leadership in the mid price car sector. We’ll soon see! And maybe it will enhance their share price? Or not. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#329873

Postby Arborbridge » July 31st, 2020, 6:59 am

Howard wrote:The problem with a discussion like this is that most of the contributors are giving opinions on technology without any real-life experience of driving the cars and using the technology.

I’m lucky enough to have driven lots of cars and chose a BMW because, to me, as a driver (rather than an investor), it had a lot of advantages which suited my kind of driving. One of them is being able to sit in my study, planning a drive to a destination I haven’t visited before and sending a message to the car for an OTA update to the SatNav which works seamlessly as I start my journey the next day. To me this is worth a lot. It saves the dangerous fiddling with a touchscreen whilst driving at the start of a journey.

The day before yesterday I had to come back from near Moreton in Marsh past Oxford and, on setting off, the car warned me that there was a queue on the Southbound A34 which might take up to an hour to get through. It was nice to join the A34 at the bottom of the queue without running into any traffic.

regards

Howard


I don't have experience of the BMW system, but I have plenty of the Android navigator. Like you, I find it invaluable for checking the route and traffic conditions before I go - I usually trust Rita, but sometimes I prefer to go a different way just because I prefer it for personal reasons which she knows nothing about! I'm glad you too have a system you are happy with. I like the Google real time aspect for checking a journey before I go, or as I go, and luckily on the more difficult journeys there are usual two of us in the car, so no button pressing necessary. If there's only one of us, we just follow what Rita says. She's been a god send at times in unfamiliar places, particularly towns, and the real time aspect is brilliant.

It doesn't alter my point, that as traffic systems morph on a long journey, it can lead to multiple changes which overall do not necessarily give an advantage compared with staying on the one route: a bit like trading versus long term buy and hold :lol:


Arb.

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#331729

Postby Pipsmum » August 8th, 2020, 1:15 pm

Nikola was one I stumbled upon recently. No idea of its performance.

https://nikolamotor.com/investors/stock

https://www.bestinvest.co.uk/research/m ... nt-venture

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#332091

Postby dspp » August 10th, 2020, 9:55 am

Pipsmum wrote:Nikola was one I stumbled upon recently. No idea of its performance.

https://nikolamotor.com/investors/stock

https://www.bestinvest.co.uk/research/m ... nt-venture


Nikola has very little track record of anything other than vapourware. Dividends are not in sight, nor yet an actual vehicle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation

regards, dspp

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#332129

Postby dspp » August 10th, 2020, 12:10 pm

For info VW control the EA charger network

Electrify America EV Charging Payment SNAFU : "In the meantime, all we non-Tesla drivers can do is plead politely for EA to get its act together--and soon."

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/electrif ... AmHw%3D%3D

- dspp

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Re: VW - A Tesla alternative that pays a dividend?

#332135

Postby Pipsmum » August 10th, 2020, 12:25 pm

dspp wrote:
Nikola has very little track record of anything other than vapourware. Dividends are not in sight, nor yet an actual vehicle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation

regards, dspp


So the new electric invisible cars then... Thank you for saving a potential mistake there.


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