Shell

[monabri]

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/43 ... il-and-gas

Article on Shell.

[Wizard]

I recall, many years ago, being taught of Shell's approach to strategic planning through the use of scenario planning. I seem to recall one of the focal points being that while Shell did not predict the reason for the 1970s oil price shock, that had analysed scenarios that had similar outcomes. This meant Shell was well prepared for what happened.

As a holder of RDSB I hope their strategic antenna remain as well tuned. I doubt they predicted Covid-19, but I hope they have considered scenarios with a significant and sudden drop in demand and oil price. Similarly, I cannot imagine that Shell will not have been analysing every possible outcome when it comes to the transition from fossil fuels to greener alternatives.

Having decided not to buy an electric car before lock down because of the inadequate infrastructure for charging anything but a Tesla I do wonder how Shell can exploit the future demand and tie that in to the huge number of petrol stations they have.

I am well down on my holding of Shell, but I am tempted to buy more as a longer term recovery play. My concern is not so much about there being a recovery, but when it may be. In short, will I get a better return sooner from other options in other sectors.

[bluedonkey]

I still think that the outlook for Shell is a case of playing a poor hand well, notwithstanding its strategic skill.

(I have to confess to talking my book here, as I sold in June.)