tournesol wrote:SalvorH
I disagree.
Perhaps I'm being simple minded, but an alarm bell that rang loudly in 2000-1 and again in 2008-9 and again a few months ago seems to me like it's offering a useful service.
I lost 66% in 2000-1 and 50% in 2008-9.
I went 100% into cash a few weeks ago and have avoided the pain of the last few weeks.
If I had exited before the crash of 2000-1 and then again before the crash of 2008 then my portfolio would be a significant multiple of its current value even if I had exited in 2014 and stayed in cash ever since.
I'd accept an indicator which is right 3 times out of 4 any day.
You did not lose 66% in 2000-1 and 2008-9. According to your post you stayed invested, hence you did not lose anything, you could only have lost by selling. Admittedly you could have made more by selling ahead of those crashes, providing your re entry point was good, a lot more if it was optimal. But I have met very few seriously experienced investors who recommend that game. You have played a blinder this time round, only because that particular hunch was correct, but watch out for markets turning sharply back up on you before you pluck back the courage to get fully back in yourself. And don't forget to count the divi income, plus tasty re invested divis effect, you have said goodbye to by going 100% into cash, in your future reckoning.
This is my nth market crash, the first being in the 70s(and that was a really bad one, dwarfing what we are seeing today). Following the advice of the experienced investors among my family and friends throughout those decades, as another simple investor, I have stayed invested in all of them. What I did in all of them, and doing now, is to rearrange portfolios quite a bit, because some holding with no better future prospects(imho) have held up much better than other shares which have (imho) better underlying future prospects but dived badly. Will I get some of these swaps wrong, you bet, but all I need is to get more right. I certainly managed that in the past crashes, so maybe I will manage it again. In addition I am deploying much of my spare resources into the market, did quite a bit of business on both aspects today. Because instant online trades were often not on offer, I put in limit orders, altering some as the day progressed, and all triggered by today's close. I have about 30% of my spare deployable ex market resources left. Many of my friends are doing just the same. None of us will catch the bottom(although so many seem to with hindsight!), but in five odd years time this high turbulence will be a glitch on the charts, and our portfolios XIRRs will likely back to where we like them to be.
Each to their own.
Good luck to all (mostly about avoiding that virus, in particular if your health is already poor)
Bagger