The Lemon Fool

Hi all,

I've held BDEV for around five years since 2017/18, sold out at 736p in 2020 and bought back in at 501p and BDEV has continued to be a significant part of my portfolio since (it is my 2nd largest holding at around 8.5% of total portfolio).

As mentioned - I've held BDEV for around 5 years with a weighted average price around a fiver, but, the SP seems to have broken through all support levels I've seen since my initial investment. I appreciate the drop has been a gradual decline since the beginning of this year but I'm hoping some more experienced heads can help me understand what we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

Any help, insight, ideas or suggestions are welcome

EH

elephanthunt11 wrote:Hi all,

I've held BDEV for around five years since 2017/18, sold out at 736p in 2020 and bought back in at 501p and BDEV has continued to be a significant part of my portfolio since (it is my 2nd largest holding at around 8.5% of total portfolio).

As mentioned - I've held BDEV for around 5 years with a weighted average price around a fiver, but, the SP seems to have broken through all support levels I've seen since my initial investment. I appreciate the drop has been a gradual decline since the beginning of this year but I'm hoping some more experienced heads can help me understand what we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

Any help, insight, ideas or suggestions are welcome

EH

Nothing in the last 2 weeks I have seen concerns me. Results on 7th September is the opportunity for the Board to update on future expectations.

dealtn wrote:

elephanthunt11 wrote:Hi all,

I've held BDEV for around five years since 2017/18, sold out at 736p in 2020 and bought back in at 501p and BDEV has continued to be a significant part of my portfolio since (it is my 2nd largest holding at around 8.5% of total portfolio).

As mentioned - I've held BDEV for around 5 years with a weighted average price around a fiver, but, the SP seems to have broken through all support levels I've seen since my initial investment. I appreciate the drop has been a gradual decline since the beginning of this year but I'm hoping some more experienced heads can help me understand what we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

Any help, insight, ideas or suggestions are welcome

EH

Nothing in the last 2 weeks I have seen concerns me. Results on 7th September is the opportunity for the Board to update on future expectations.

I will try to take some solace from that. If I'm being open and honest - feeling like this is an odd feeling to wrestle with.
I've been investing for 5 years (I'm 30 now) and I like to think I have developed a pretty strong stomach (think 2018 yield curve inversion/ 2019 trump's china trade war/2020 covid/2021 tech sell off/2022 Russian invasion/potentially rampant inflation).

I think it might just be the breakthrough of support levels seen over the last 5 years which has got to me.

Are BDEV a significant holding of yours?

House price crash incoming.
The market is looking forward, sees the writing on the wall and has priced accordingly.

absolutezero wrote:House price crash incoming.
The market is looking forward, sees the writing on the wall and has priced accordingly.

Exactly. I see a housing market ahead not unlike the early 1990's. Wouldn't touch house builders with a very long pole myself.

Hello it may be that all builders share prices are falling , we are coming to a recession , interest rates going up , house prices way too high , cost of living etc . Many people defaulting on their mortgage payments . I think a rough ride on the rollercoaster is coming . I have a small amount of shares in Vistry by way of my Galliford shares which I bought 20 odd years ago , they are down in price too .

I think one other factor is that the energy crisis is going to suck a very large amount of purchasing power out of consumers pockets, which will make it increasingly difficult to find the money to support house purchase.

On the other hand there is a huge imbalance between supply and demand for housing, buying a home is still one of the highest priorities for most people and rampant inflation means that real house prices can fall without nominal prices falling (much). Governments certainly don't want a collapse in the house market in the 2 years leading up to an election- they are always inventing absurd schemes to keep the bubble inflated.

As for the stockmarket, I think its paranoia about builders is a bit like the economists who predict 10 of the next 2 recessions!

It could go either way but I'm not selling my builders shares.