Some companies prices over last 5 months

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I slapped some companies into a model portfolio on 11th April 2022. This is roughly where their stock price is, in comparison, at todays date.

Ticker	Variance %
BWY	-23.32%
BYG	-17.65%
CWK	-18.67%
FCIT	-9.00%
GAW	-6.43%
JET2	-28.51%
LIO	-32.26%
MSFT	-22.52%
GLE	-29.39%
PSN	-33.15%
SAFE	-23.01%
SMT	-16.44%
DIS	-26.15%

I bought a few Bellway (BWY) at £21.50 which was a [lower than] book value trade, towards the end of June and a few Gleeson which was a long term dividend reinvestment, come value trade around the end of June for £5.50. Both stocks have fallen since purchase.

There's a number of headwinds in the market currently. Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the "bump" that was covid and [perhaps] the late impact of Brexit could be some of the underlying causes. Interest rates have to rise, skills remain scarce, our Government has lobotomised itself and I suspect China is going to be next to struggle to pay its debts.

The downside variables appear numerous and ascendent.

AiY(D)

[Itsallaguess]

The downside variables appear numerous and ascendant.

They may well be, but don't make the mistake of thinking that those high levels of price drops over the past 5 months are reflected right across the board...

I've just checked the 14 globally-diverse income-orientated Investment Trusts that I hold, checking price changes over the same period (11th April to 2nd September) -



Source - my own spreadsheet

If we were to take into account the broad dividend income received from the above holdings over the same period as well, then in total-return terms the above figures would be improved again, and I suspect that looking through the holdings listed in your model portfolio, such a broad dividend-benefit might not occur with those more growth oriented holdings, whilst accepting that a few of them do look to provide some useful dividend yield.

So yes, there's clearly headwinds in many places at the moment, but I think many of them have been blowing the froth off the growth-strategy type holdings much more than other approaches, and I think we can clearly see that when we compare our two data-sets over the same 5-month period...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Dod101]

Isn't Foreign & Colonial the same trust as FCIT? If so, AiY shows it as down 9% and IAAG shows it as up 2.47%. Something wrong.

Dod

[simoan]

I think this comparison of individual companies to Global ITs is extremely dubious. You can’t compare share price changes in constant currency to those of ITs which have benefited from the large move in the USD/GBP exchange rate in the timeframe stated.

When I look at my portfolio in GBP terms I am only too aware that Sterling weakness has saved it from a much bigger fall year to date.

All the best, Si

[Itsallaguess]

Isn't Foreign & Colonial the same trust as FCIT?

If so, AiY shows it as down 9% and IAAG shows it as up 2.47%.

Something wrong.

I took all my figures from Google Finance price charts this morning.

Here's the one for FCIT between April 11th and September 2nd, confirming the 2.47% figure that I've used in my table -



Source - https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FCIT:LON?window=6M

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Isn't Foreign & Colonial the same trust as FCIT? If so, AiY shows it as down 9% and IAAG shows it as up 2.47%. Something wrong.

Dod

Hi Dod,

I hope you're well. We're expecting rain this week, here in sunny Yorkshire . I may decide to wash my car . Given that I was clearing out the fridge late last night and reflecting very slowly on your post this morning I poured myself a cup of tea, pinned open what is left of my eyelids and checked my numbers. No not my lottery numbers My badness

I obtained my figures from AJ Bell website using the share price graph for the 11-04-22 to give me the stock price. I used the stock price, not the NAV price. However, I still managed to get that wrong. I think that's probably because I had finished the top shelf [of the fridge] and moved to the wine cellar There are some fairly hefty rats in there. I'll have to cork a few of the open barrels

I digress as I am waiting for my jam on toast, another cup of [builders] tea, some paracetamol, ibuprofen and my morning wakey wakey medication . I've been thinking about the small fracas we had last night at around 10pm. We are fortunate enough to have a 2 year old border collie and a 3 year old labradoodle. Both are as mad as a box of frogs. Any way's they both went absolutely berserk last night running through the lounge, dining room, kitchen and utility to exit, through their dog door, into the back garden at high, even super, velocity. The border collies hackles were engaged and she clearly meant business. It wasn't a normal engagement and seemed far more intensive, and we were persuaded to investigate accordingly. After a minute of peering into the darkness, through the, now open, patio doors we glimpsed what seemed to be the cause of the dogs need to stand to. An owl. Sat loftily in the dead oak tree behind our fence. The stand off between our armed guards and the owl appeared satisfactory and parties seemed to agree on distance.

According to AJ Bell the stock price for FCIT at 02-09-22 was 870p. I didn't get that number from the chart. The chart shows the stock price at 1073p . The chart shows the price on the 11-04-22 as 1043p. Hopefully I've used the correct chart price and not the NAV value. I think between the top shelf of the fridge, the rats in the cellar and the territorial defence maneuvers I may have got my numbers slightly discombobulated. That aside I'm still not entirely sure what the correct numbers should be

If you have owls near you we're quite happy to send our owl disbursement undercover team, but they still haven't learned that barking blows their stealth and reveals their position to the enemy

Thank you

Take care

AiY(D)
Discombobulated at source

[Itsallaguess]

I think this comparison of individual companies to Global ITs is extremely dubious.

You can’t compare share price changes in constant currency to those of ITs which have benefited from the large move in the USD/GBP exchange rate in the time-frame stated.

The OP was pointing out what he thought were numerous and growing headwinds in the stockmarket, and used a table of large share-price drops over a 5 month period to help corroborate his position.

I've simply pointed out that not all investments have been affected to such a large degree over the same time-scales...

Nothing 'dubious' about that Si - I'm just highlighting that the large drops he's shown in his demo portfolio have not necessarily been replicated in some people's real-life portfolios...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[monabri]

Isn't Foreign & Colonial the same trust as FCIT? If so, AiY shows it as down 9% and IAAG shows it as up 2.47%. Something wrong.

Dod

FCIT

11th April 2022, FCIT closed at 849p per share. On the 2nd September, FCIT closed at 870p per share. Thus an increase of 2.47%....as per IAAG's figures.

A drop of 9% to 870p implies a price of 956p in April.

By uncalibrated eyeball, the maximum closing price in Apr 22 for FCIT was 869p. If AiY had inadvertently typed "969p", rather than 869p, that might be a possible explanation (especially since we don't know at what time AiY noted the price).



Source : https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=fcit+ ... gws-wiz-hp

[Itsallaguess]

I did mean to add in my previous post regarding the Google Finance price charts, that just in case anyone's not aware, you can left-click the mouse on any part of a Google Finance price chart, and then whilst holding down the left mouse button, drag the mouse to the right on the chart to another date, and you can then gain a discrete price-performance figure for between those two set dates, as per the April 11th to September 2nd figure shown on my previous snapshot -

https://i.imgur.com/SC4eyl3.png

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[monabri]

MSFT shareprice on 11th April was $285.26, closing at $256.06. Approx 10% drop. ( 22% drop ?).

( assume MSFT being Microsoft).

Disney ( DIS)....$130 to $111 , 15% down.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I think this comparison of individual companies to Global ITs is extremely dubious. You can’t compare share price changes in constant currency to those of ITs which have benefited from the large move in the USD/GBP exchange rate in the timeframe stated.

When I look at my portfolio in GBP terms I am only too aware that Sterling weakness has saved it from a much bigger fall year to date.

All the best, Si

Hi Mr. Si,

I hope you're well. I have a problem, which I should share with you. You don't spend enough time on these boards . Which is not just my loss . Think of the pleasure you will have supporting a short fused dummy like me with your insights. I know there's a flaw in there which would threaten your sanity . I think IAAG was making the point that the falls in my "model portfolio" weren't market wide. I hasten to add I'm not suggesting your comment inferred this neither and I was piqued by your post.

My opening post was centered around a very narrow number of companies. I think the purpose of posting was to invite conversation and replies from which I can augment my understanding and capabilities.

AiY's Personal Profile
This needs to be said I'm afraid. I'll keep it brief. I have issues with my memory. They [probably] emanate from my underlying, as yet not correctly diagnosed, sleep disorder. I have to go over stuff repeatedly for it to sink in. Sometimes I have to deal with merged memories and ghost memories too. I think this may frustrate those who aren't aware. It frustrates me greatly too

That aside I am always grateful for any replies to my posts.

Thank you

Take care

AiY(D)

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Isn't Foreign & Colonial the same trust as FCIT? If so, AiY shows it as down 9% and IAAG shows it as up 2.47%. Something wrong.

Dod

FCIT

11th April 2022, FCIT closed at 849p per share. On the 2nd September, FCIT closed at 870p per share. Thus an increase of 2.47%....as per IAAG's figures.

A drop of 9% to 870p implies a price of 956p in April.

By uncalibrated eyeball, the maximum closing price in Apr 22 for FCIT was 869p. If AiY had inadvertently typed "969p", rather than 869p, that might be a possible explanation (especially since we don't know at what time AiY noted the price).

Source : https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=fcit+ ... gws-wiz-hp

Hi Mr. M,

I hope you're well.

Just to confirm your conspiracy theory those are are the figures I used, yes. A price of 969p on the 11-04-22 and a price of 870p on 02-09-22.

I've managed to find the source of my blunder. The graph on AJ Bell is not the share price graph. It's a stock growth chart

I have separated my middle digit from its housing and will send it to Dod in tomorrows post

AiY(D)

[NotSure]

I wondered at first if AiY's table was literally correct - that is, he had stated the variance rather than the change. However variance is the square of standard deviation, so always positive (unless the fluctuations were literally imaginary........)

[Dod101]

I was merely observing the discrepancy. I did not intend to stir things up quite so much. Anyway, it seems that FCIT has performed quite well over the period discussed.

Dod

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I was merely observing the discrepancy. I did not intend to stir things up quite so much. Anyway, it seems that FCIT has performed quite well over the period discussed.

Dod

Hi Dod,

You haven't stirred things up at all. Indeed it was good of you to raise the mistake I made. Thank you.

Take care

AiY(D)

[simoan]

I think this comparison of individual companies to Global ITs is extremely dubious.

You can’t compare share price changes in constant currency to those of ITs which have benefited from the large move in the USD/GBP exchange rate in the time-frame stated.

The OP was pointing out what he thought were numerous and growing headwinds in the stockmarket, and used a table of large share-price drops over a 5 month period to help corroborate his position.

I've simply pointed out that not all investments have been affected to such a large degree over the same time-scales...

Nothing 'dubious' about that Si - I'm just highlighting that the large drops he's shown in his demo portfolio have not necessarily been replicated in some people's real-life portfolios...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I’m sorry but you simply can’t ignore currency movements as you have done. I was being polite calling it dubious, it’s just plain wrong and very misleading. It would be nice if you could just sometimes admit it rather than using data to mislead others as part of your anti growth shares, pro IT agenda

[monabri]

I was merely observing the discrepancy. I did not intend to stir things up quite so much. Anyway, it seems that FCIT has performed quite well over the period discussed.

Dod

Hi Dod,

You haven't stirred things up at all. Indeed it was good of you to raise the mistake I made. Thank you.

Take care

AiY(D)

I had a quick look at the original table , AiY. I believe it's mostly correct with just a few things that need to be rechecked. All prices are 2022. Probably a bit overkill to quote to 2 D.P. but nevermind (and I'm not consistent in the table anyway)!



Those are straightforward changes in shareprices.

If you were considering selling the US companies, at least you'd recover some of the "loss" because of Simeon's point regarding exchange rates. The value of the pound to the dollar has fallen from 1:30 to 1.15, approx 12% drop since April 11th 2022 (unfortunate as there are some US companies that I would like to take a tentative buy but the poor exchange rate is significant).

[monabri]

I came across the Barclay's website. One can adjust the timeframe - here I've gone back 6 months to 2nd March 2022. The table has been truncated in the graphic below.

https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/sectors/



However, If one were to dive into "Aerospace & Defence" (and this is now over 1 year)...there is a lot of variability in "what's hot" and "what's not" (eg BAE Systems versus Avon who had some problems with body armour trial failures on test).



It might be worthwhile to have a peruse through the different sectors and look for the companies that are "weathering the storm" (for the moment).

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I was merely observing the discrepancy. I did not intend to stir things up quite so much. Anyway, it seems that FCIT has performed quite well over the period discussed.

Dod

Hi Dod,

You haven't stirred things up at all. Indeed it was good of you to raise the mistake I made. Thank you.

Take care

AiY(D)

I had a quick look at the original table , AiY. I believe it's mostly correct with just a few things that need to be rechecked. All prices are 2022. Probably a bit overkill to quote to 2 D.P. but nevermind (and I'm not consistent in the table anyway)!



Those are straightforward changes in shareprices.

If you were considering selling the US companies, at least you'd recover some of the "loss" because of Simeon's point regarding exchange rates. The value of the pound to the dollar has fallen from 1:30 to 1.15, approx 12% drop since April 11th 2022 (unfortunate as there are some US companies that I would like to take a tentative buy but the poor exchange rate is significant).

Thank you Mon amie

Si's point is interesting as I didn't take currency changes into account and really should have. Digressing slightly I have considered topping up on both Bellway and Gleeson, but I'm not sure they haven't got a little further to fall yet, so I'm just waiting for a little more news flow, from both companies and keeping an eye on macro economic events.

Take care and next time will you please show all calculations to three decimal places . I know I'm already on the bus

AiY(D)

[Itsallaguess]

I’m sorry but you simply can’t ignore currency movements as you have done. I was being polite calling it dubious, it’s just plain wrong and very misleading.

It would be nice if you could just sometimes admit it rather than using data to mislead others as part of your anti growth shares, pro IT agenda

Thanks Si - I'll add that note into my little 'Why Si's shouting that someone's wrong again' book...

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess