Manchester United (NYSE: MANU)

[SalvorHardin]

The Guardian has just published an article in which they say that the Sir Jim and Sheikh Jassim have each offered £4.5 billion, but that the Glazers still want £6 billion.

"The Glazers’ price is closer to £6bn but they may countenance an offer in between that and the existing bids. The family’s desire, though, to have any deal agreed in the next month appears in doubt, with a sale by the end of the season more likely as things stand."

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/28/manchester-united-takeover-delayed-as-glazers-hold-out-for-6bn-sale

IMHO that four of the six Glazers want to sell will make it difficult for the two who don't, mostly because there doesn't seem to be the level of interest that they thought there would be, notably no American private equity (they've probably realised that Boehly massively overpaid for Chelsea and those who lost are thankful that they did).

Also the club's finances are rather grim and the Glazers really can't afford to cling on unless they want to take a huge risk (the share price will probably fall by at least one-third if they announce that they are no longer selling).

Still holding 40% of my original purchase with a further 5% topup (after selling 60%, doh!).

[scotview]

Still holding 40% of my original purchase with a further 5% topup (after selling 60%, doh!).

Lets see how they get on tomorrow in the FA cup. City looked strong tonight, de bruyne eh ?

By the way, great to see you posting.

[SalvorHardin]

Bloomberg are reporting that the Qatar bid is £5 billion ($6 billion), not £4 to £4.5 billion as reported elsewhere. This is in the second paragraph in the interview linked below, with the father (and former Prime Minister) of Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad al-Thani, which was posted on 1st March.

"Sheikh Hamad’s son Jassim made a £5 billion ($6 billion) offer for Manchester United Plc football club less than two weeks ago,"

I've only just seen this, having been insanely busy (by my standards) for the last couple of days. Oops!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/qatari-sheikh-says-he-s-no-football-fan-as-son-chases-man-united

If the Glazers don't get a premium for their higher voting shares over the shares that you can buy on the NYSE, that is about $36.90 per share.

[SalvorHardin]

The Telegraph is saying that Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Sheikh Jassim have advanced to the next stage of bidding. But their bids are lower than the £5 billion quoted by Bloomberg in my previous post.

"Neither bidder has disclosed the value of their offer but they are not thought to meet the £5 billion-plus that United’s unpopular American owners are believed to be targeting.

Unlike the fraught Chelsea sale last summer, talks will remain a fiercely kept secret as the bidding process heats up over the coming days."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/03/04/sir-jim-ratcliffe-qatari-sheikh-clear-first-hurdle-manchester/

From what I've read I favour Qatar. It looks like Ratcliffe is talking about only buying the Glazers' shares and ignoring the rest of us (which he could probably do as American and Cayman Islands law doesn't have the same level of minority investor protection as the UK).

Wearing my fan's hat I'm not at all happy by his not saying about clearing the debt that the Glazers dumped on the club. It has been and continues to be a huge hindrance on the club.

[SalvorHardin]

On the train going home from Cheltenham, so apologies as I'm on my phone and am a bit merry.

The Guardian has posted an article today that says that Sheikh Jassim's bid is preferred and that Sir Jim only wants to buy the Glazers 69% stake. As a shareholder I'd not be happy with being left as a part of the 31% minority and would be much happier to be bought out, especially as American law isn't as protective of minority shareholders' rights as English law.

As a fan I'm strongly opposed to any buyer who uses debt. The debt that the gimps dumped on the club has become the proverbial ball and chain, the last thing the club needs is more debt.

The Glazers and the parasite investment bank that is offering "finance" to buyers have been getting bombarded with complaints by fans, judging by the response on fan websites.

"Thani is intent on buying 100% of United without taking on any debt, while Ratcliffe is thought to want only the Glazers’ 69% share, perhaps using investment."

https://amp.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/15/sheikh-jassim-qatar-favourite-buy-manchester-united-talks-begin-sir-jim-ratcliffe-glazers

For "investment" substitute "more debt".

Paisley Park each way for me in the 3.30 tomorrow. The heart leading the head as he's 16-1

[SalvorHardin]

Just seen this article from the Daily Telegraph which talks about eight bidders.

"The Americans want at least £5 billion to sell but it is thought the offers from Sheikh Jassim and Ratcliffe fall short of that valuation."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/03/15/new-manchester-united-owners-eight-bidders-ratcliffe-elliot/

Unfortunately it looks as though most of the interested parties are going to finance any bid using debt.

[SalvorHardin]

It's getting quite lively as we approach Sir Alex Ferguson's "squeaky bum time". With yesterday's self-imposed bid deadline having passed with the two main bidders, Sir Jim Ratcliffe (Ineos) and Sheikh Jassim (Qatar), not submitting bids until some hours afterwards. It looks as if there's some hard negotiating going on.

Earlier today a third bidder went public. Finnish businessman Thomas Zilliacus who is looking to a shared ownership model where his companies buy 50% and fans buy the remaining 50%. With fan-shareholders being given votes on football matters. I can't see it getting any traction, save amongst journalists who are desperate to find something new to talk about.

"A new bidder has emerged in the Manchester United takeover race with Finnish businessman Thomas Zilliacus looking to introduce a fan ownership model at Old Trafford"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/manutd-takeover-new-bidder-zilliacus-29531457

"Manchester United takeover chaos as bid deadline is dramatically extended"

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/mar/22/manchester-united-takeover-battle-intensifies-as-increased-bids-are-made

I can come up with several fairly credible scenarios which would justify the shares being worth anything between $10 and $45 (currently $25.62). If the Glazers don't sell and instead take up one of the high interest rate debt offers that will be on the table, I can see the shares easily collapsing to well below the $13 where they were before the announcement of a possible sale back in November. Whereas $45 represents a takeover price of approximately £6 billion, which is possible if there's a bidding war.

As to what happens to the shares if the Glazer family sells their 69% stake to someone who then doesn't put in a bid for the 31% that are listed on the NYSE, I'd expect the price to fall to somewhere between $15 and $20 (and the shares might even be delisted). American (and Cayman Islands) law doesn't impose the same degree of protection for minority investors as English law does, where the buyer would be forced to bid for the remaining 31%. If this happened, I'd expect the Glazer family to be hit with many lawsuits (breach of fiduciary duty for one) and complaints to the NYSE for having created a false market in the shares.

Squeaky bum time indeed...

[SalvorHardin]

The first news in ages emerged yesterday, with the slow emergence of news that there is another round of bidding. This is to be completed by the end of April. Some sources have said that in addition to the two known bidders plus the Finnish guy (who I don't take seriously) there are four more "private bidders"

"The leading contenders to buy Manchester United will now prepare their third and last bids for the club ahead of an April 28 final deadline. Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani was invited overnight to proceed to the next stage by brokers handling the sale. Sir Jim Ratcliffe is also expected to have another chance to submit an improved offer. Other interested groups, including the US hedge fund Elliott Management, are also believed to remain in the running."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/04/12/man-utd-takeover-impasse-threatens-to-derail-transfer-plans/

The shares rose by 6.4% yesterday to $22.69, which values the company at roughly $3.7 billion, which is considerable less than the $5 billion to $6 billion bid that have been rumoured. So the market doesn't think that it's a done deal.

If the Glazers don't sell, possibly taking money from a hedge fund who dumps yet more debt on the club, we'll probably see the shares fall sharply. Maybe to around $13 where they were just before they announced that they were considering offers for the club.

As usual there are loads of people banging on about the bid having succeeded on Twitter and how Qatar / Dubai / Sir Jim / Mr Blobby now owns the club. Almost all of these people have less than zero credibility. One of the very few credible accounts is Sportico, a sports news website which covers a lot of financial topics. Sportico broke the Chelsea takeover (and a lot of accurate news during the run up), where the sale was organised by Raine Group (who the Glazers are employing to deal with the Manchester United sale).
https://twitter.com/Sportico

Mike Keegan of the Daily Mail is another source that I recommend
https://twitter.com/MikeKeegan_DM

I reckon that any public announcements will be reported by the mainstream media within a minute or two of their happening, or even as a live announcement.

[Spet0789]

Looks like the market is realising that Jim Ratcliffe can take over the club without buying the listed A shares. They’ve given back most of their gains. Tricky things, dual share classes.

[SalvorHardin]

I've sold down to my last 3,000 shares which I intend to keep until the ownership situation is resolved.

IMHO the corporate side of Manchester United is a joke. Six months have passed since last November's announcement that the board was going to evaluate all options and nothing has been officially released. Press speculation has (naturally) been rampant and IMHO the information vacuum has created a false market.

There are reports that £500,000 worth of transatlantic private jet travel was charged to the club for personal trips for one of the Glazers to see the League Cup final and the Women's FA Cup final. Someone should tell them that it's not their personal piggy bank, it's the club's money and 31% of the club is owned by the minority shareholders.

I can't complain too much as I'm about 40% up on the shares that I still have, and made 73% on the lot that I've sold. But it's been quite an education as to how minority shareholders are far better protected in London than New York.

Your guess is as good as mine regarding what the eventual outcome will be. The odds that the Glazers won't be selling are much higher than they were a couple of months ago, which has been reflected by the big fall in the share price.

[SalvorHardin]

[Deletion]

Moderator Message:
Totally unnecessary and off-topic snipe at TLF and its posters deleted. Please stick to investment-related content on investment related boards, which, if I've understood it correctly, is, ironically, your very beef! - Chris

Executive summary: Sheikh Jassim's bid has succeeded according to well connected newspaper reports in Qatar.

The share price rocketed last night in after hours trading and it's now up by almost 30% on last night's close in the pre-market. Bear in mind that prices in the after and pre markets should be taken with a pinch of salt as they are done on a matched bargain basis where there isn't the sort of liquidity that you would get in normal trading hours.

This seems to have been started by newspaper reports out of Qater, specifically Al Watan which is a reliable newspaper owned by members of the Royal Family (Sheikh Jassim's father is a major shareholder). The tweet linked below comes from Al Watan's account (it's in Arabic but from experience Twitter app and website are fairly reliable when it comes to translations).

https://twitter.com/al_watanQatar/status/1668327577147015207

"But according to paper Al-Watan, owned by Sheikh Jassim's dad, the Qatari bid for Man United has been successful. They add that following "successful" talks - an announcement of Sheikh Jassim's takeover will arrive "soon"."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/22674806/sheikh-jassim-man-utd-takeover-qatar/

"Qatar’s Al-Watan newspaper reported Tuesday evening that Sheikh Jassim, a son of the country’s former prime minister, is poised to be announced as the preferred bidder of the Premier League soccer club. Al-Watan is co-owned by Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/soccer-man-utd-shares-pop-after-qatar-hints-at-takeover-bid-success.html

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MANU
[Deletion]

[SalvorHardin]

Just over an hour ago Rio Ferdinand posted a video on his YouTube channel, where he says: "we're hearing that the Qatari bid is the one that's taking over. It's the one that's going to be accepted"

Starts at 20 seconds. For those who don't follow football, Rio played for Manchester United from 2002 to 2014 and since retiring he has been working for BT Sport as a pundit for their Premier League and European coverage. He's one of the better football pundits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTCiFXClUuM

Needless to say Manchester United fan forums are a hotbed of gossip regarding this and who is his source. He knows David Beckham very well and Beckham was an ambassador for the Qatar World Cup and to promote Qatar.

[SalvorHardin]

About 15 minute ago Reuters published a report that negotiations are now exclusively with Sheikh Jassim's consortium.

"English football club Manchester United (MANU.N) is negotiating granting exclusivity to the consortium led by Qatar's Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad al-Thani in the talks to sell itself for more than $6 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday."

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/manchester-united-negotiating-exclusivity-with-qatars-sheikh-jassim-6-bln-plus-2023-06-15/

[SalvorHardin]

Sold out some days ago at just over $24, as I changed my mind and decided that the Glazers are not going to sell up, but instead are looking for someone to put money in (or they are going to go with INEOS). A profit of almost $11 a share isn't to be sneezed at.

In case anyone is interested, the proceeds went into three topups:

Atlanta Braves Holdings (owners of the Atlanta Braves baseball team with a large property development in the district around the Braves' stadium)

Madison Square Garden Sports (owners of the New York Knicks (Basketball) and New York Rangers (Ice Hockey))

SL Green Realty Corp (prime Manhattan commercial property, mostly offices)

Seeking Alpha is the best site IMHO for research and discussion on these companies.

[Itsallaguess]

Sold out some days ago at just over $24, as I changed my mind and decided that the Glazers are not going to sell up

You've taken a lot of well deserved credit for your documented trade into Manchester United on these boards, and I think it's worth tailing that story off with some additional credit on your above-mentioned exit strategy and timing as well, as we can see from the 5-day price-chart below -




Source - https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MANU:NYSE?window=5D


From the BBC today -

Manchester United shares dive on report sale is off -

Manchester United shares have seen their biggest ever one-day fall after a report that the team's US owners are going to take it off the market.

The club's shares fell by more than 18% in New York on Tuesday.

That came after the Mail on Sunday reported that no potential buyer had matched the club's asking price.

The US-based Glazer family announced in November it was considering selling the Premier League club as they explored "strategic alternatives".

Manchester United's co-chairmen, brothers Joel and Avram Glazer, are holding out for an offer of £10bn, according to the Mail on Sunday.

However, prospective bidders Sheikh Jassim of Qatar and British billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe had not come close to offering that amount, the paper said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66725924


I always think that people deserve a huge amount of credit for sticking their necks on the line with well documented trades that are voluntarily carried out in the public arena, but to see that sort of well-timed and executed wrap-up deserves special mention here SalvorHardin.

Bravo.

On a side note, the Glazers should clearly be investigated now for market abuse, with a swift 10-point deduction being required to stop this sort of nonsense happening again....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[SalvorHardin]

I always think that people deserve a huge amount of credit for sticking their necks on the line with well documented trades that are voluntarily carried out in the public arena, but to see that sort of well-timed and executed wrap-up deserves special mention here SalvorHardin.

Bravo.

On a side note, the Glazers should clearly be investigated now for market abuse, with a swift 10-point deduction being required to stop this sort of nonsense happening again....

Thanks. It's good to get something right for once Now, if Ocean Wilsons Holdings would similarly respond...

I have complained to the SEC about the complete lack of information that the company has provided since last November's announcement, with leaks appearing on an almost daily basis creating a seriously dodgy market. I'm not expecting a reply.

If there was a points deduction, given the Premier League's track record they would probably impose an additional four match ban for Casemiro and Patrice Evra.

[monabri]

Sold out some days ago at just over $24, as I changed my mind and decided that the Glazers are not going to sell up, but instead are looking for someone to put money in (or they are going to go with INEOS). A profit of almost $11 a share isn't to be sneezed at.

Well played Sir!

"Played for and Got" (to quote a certain Mr D. Lister)

[Itsallaguess]

On a side note, the Glazers should clearly be investigated now for market abuse, with a swift 10-point deduction being required to stop this sort of nonsense happening again....

If there was a points deduction, given the Premier League's track record they would probably impose an additional four match ban for Casemiro and Patrice Evra.

You're quite right, of course, that extra punishment for the club would probably be warranted.

Forcing Ten Hag to sign an additional 10-year contract extension should just about cover it, I imagine...

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Spet0789]

At this rate the Glazers might regret the way they have handled this. The way they are playing, in 3 months Man U will most likely have been dumped out of the CL and in 6 it will be pretty clear that they won’t be back in it next year.

Until Fergie, ManU were basically the Spurs of the North (admittedly with a European Cup).

[flyer61]

Off to watch City play in the CL tonight. Chairmans hospitality package....my kids (all reds) tell me this would cost 5 or 6 times more at United and would all be sold out well in advance.

Man U is indeed a very valuable brand as to the football team that is another matter!