FTSE100 all time high today.

[BullDog]

Well, it was a long time happening.

[Tedx]

Well, it was a long time happening.

Yes, but think of all the dividends in the meantime.

[vand]

May 2018 was the previos ATH. So a near 5yr drawdown.. which isn't atypical.

I personally think the FTSE is poised to do better both in relative and absolute terms than it has done over the last 20. After having spend such a long time pretty much rangebound, I think we will see meaningful advance towards 10k over a relatively shorter timeframe.

[mark88man]

Interested in your FTSE 10K viewpoint - what sort of timeframe were you thinking of?

I took an overweight position in UK at start of 2022 - and was starting to think about unwinding that as part of pre retirement simplifications

[Dod101]

May 2018 was the previos ATH. So a near 5yr drawdown.. which isn't atypical.

I personally think the FTSE is poised to do better both in relative and absolute terms than it has done over the last 20. After having spend such a long time pretty much rangebound, I think we will see meaningful advance towards 10k over a relatively shorter timeframe.

Is that showing confidence in your crystal ball or have you something more substantial to rely on?

Dod

[Dod101]

Interested in your FTSE 10K viewpoint - what sort of timeframe were you thinking of?

I took an overweight position in UK at start of 2022 - and was starting to think about unwinding that as part of pre retirement simplifications

I am unimpressed by any of this. If you think you can time this you have more confidence than me. And with great respect to vand, his guesses are no better than yours I would have thought.

I am not being cynical but really just decide for yourself. I expect your decision will be as good as anyone else’s.

Dod

[mark88man]

Yes Dod I know I should plead ignorance, but Vand's statement was a surprise and a take of optimism which is a rare commodity in the UK these days - so was interested in what narrative (not proof / evidence) was emerging

[Dod101]

Yes Dod I know I should plead ignorance, but Vand's statement was a surprise and a take of optimism which is a rare commodity in the UK these days - so was interested in what narrative (not proof / evidence) was emerging

I share his optimism for what that is worth because the market is usually ahead of events on the ground. I may have said as much at the beginning of the year, before the latest pronouncements from the BOE. It is very easy and some seem to find it comfortable to be gloomy all the time but the FTSE has been acknowledged to be undervalued for some time, at least compared to many other parts of the developed world. It is only too easy also to be depressed by the cynicism and doom posted by some of the contributors to sites like this. However expressing a positive opinion does not make it happen and you must make up your own mind.

Dod

[1nvest]

At least the FT100 is presently more balanced than it has been in the past, where sector over-weighting subsequently resulted in drag (financials 2008/9)

[BullDog]

At least the FT100 is presently more balanced than it has been in the past, where sector over-weighting subsequently resulted in drag (financials 2008/9)

Thanks. As ever, it's somewhat debatable. Energy and basic materials are basically the same sector and together are 23%.

[vand]

Interested in your FTSE 10K viewpoint - what sort of timeframe were you thinking of?

I took an overweight position in UK at start of 2022 - and was starting to think about unwinding that as part of pre retirement simplifications

Well you put me on the spot lol. We know that markets have a way of disappointing those who want it to work to their timeframes instead of its own.

But I will always go back to 10 yr correlation with valuation where I I think FTSE is priced to deliver 6-7% over the next decade in real terms. So if we assume 2-3% inflation that's a 9-10% nominal return it has to deliver, and with 3.5% of that coming from dividends we need an annualised 5.5-6.5% growth in the index price, which if delivered in a smooth fashion (which it won't be, but still) would see us take out the 10k mark as early as this time in 2027.

Won't happen that way of course as markets tend to be volatile even allowing for major trends, and reading it back myself it does seem very optimistic after we've spent so long stuck going mainly sideways, but that is my logic.

The stark lack of euphoria and even cynicism WRT the FTSE even as it passes this landmark is a good contrarian sign that there could be plenty of upside surprise to come.

[Dod101]

At least the FT100 is presently more balanced than it has been in the past, where sector over-weighting subsequently resulted in drag (financials 2008/9)

That is presumably due to the fact that, as I see from own portfolio, financials have not shared in the rise in other sectors. I am trying to avoid being negative (as I have accused others of being) but I am not sure that on that basis it helps make the FTSE100 any better than it was.

Dod

[Gerry557]

Should we be selling??? Buy low sell high and all that.

Although I did read an article about the worst investor who bought on peaks the short version was that over the long term he was ok.

I was waiting for a fall in the market to add more, looks like that wait might go on a tad longer.

[ReformedCharacter]

Should we be selling??? Buy low sell high and all that.

Although I did read an article about the worst investor who bought on peaks the short version was that over the long term he was ok.

I was waiting for a fall in the market to add more, looks like that wait might go on a tad longer.

I'm definitely not a seller and despite the feel-good factor of seeing my portfolio hit its highest ever valuation last week, income has become more expensive to buy. I'd be more than happy to see a significant drop in valuations.

RC

[Dod101]

Should we be selling??? Buy low sell high and all that.

Although I did read an article about the worst investor who bought on peaks the short version was that over the long term he was ok.

I was waiting for a fall in the market to add more, looks like that wait might go on a tad longer.

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. If you want to buy, just buy. I would not be selling. Do people not understand that trying to time the market just goes not work?

Dod

[Gerry557]

Technically I'm selling bits as the dividends roll in and are added to the pot for the next set of buys. Yes I prefer to buy when the yields are a tad bigger, so a fall isn't bad news.

Maybe a bigger cash buffer isn't all bad anyway with talk of ression.

Dod, is it trying to time the market or as Buffet would say, you don’t have to swing at every pitch, so just being a bit choosy

[DrFfybes]

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. If you want to buy, just buy. I would not be selling. Do people not understand that trying to time the market just goes not work?

Dod

You are correct, but I will be selling sometime in the next 8 weeks to move money into ISAs.

Sure, the market may continue upwards, but it WILL go downwards again in the short term, and if I'm going to sell then a record high seems as good a time as any. If I Bed and ISA then it makes little difference, but considering it is 'only' £40k I'm moving then even if the market roars head to 8000 this week and stays there forever then it is only 0.15%, or £60, and I save a tenner of that using this month's free II trade

And you are assuming we are all invested in Trackers, there will be many people rebalancing portfolios, or with indiviual holdings that look a bit toppy, or who chucked a chunk into Direct Line at 165p and are happy to take a 10% profit whilst the CGT allowance is there.

Paul

[Dod101]

Timing the market is a fool’s errand. If you want to buy, just buy. I would not be selling. Do people not understand that trying to time the market just goes not work?

Dod

You are correct, but I will be selling sometime in the next 8 weeks to move money into ISAs.

Sure, the market may continue upwards, but it WILL go downwards again in the short term, and if I'm going to sell then a record high seems as good a time as any. If I Bed and ISA then it makes little difference, but considering it is 'only' £40k I'm moving then even if the market roars head to 8000 this week and stays there forever then it is only 0.15%, or £60, and I save a tenner of that using this month's free II trade

And you are assuming we are all invested in Trackers, there will be many people rebalancing portfolios, or with indiviual holdings that look a bit toppy, or who chucked a chunk into Direct Line at 165p and are happy to take a 10% profit whilst the CGT allowance is there.

Paul

I am certainly not assuming we are all invested in trackers. I rebalance normally no more than once or twice a year and will occasionally otherwise take a profit on an individual share but that is not what I call trying to time the market. I really do not mind or care what the market is doing if I make these moves. after all that is just taking advantage of a decent price to sell (if you have a mind to anyway)

What I really meant was that there is no answer to the question, 'The market is at an all time high, should I be selling?' That is trying to time the market and that is the fool's errand I was thinking of.

Dod

[Adamski]

The ftse 100 has been undeperforming for many many years, so it's about time it's had a bull run!

Been on an upward trajectory since 12th Oct.

Been undervalued for so long thanks to brexit and uk being hit badly by Covid. Slow growth giants are back in fashion!

What think is a good sign is smooth trend in ftse100 since recent October bottom; US markets been lot more choppy last few months perhaps indicating their recovery might be short lived, nervousness over when lower earnings get reported.

[kempiejon]

Hit 8k today. Which is a tiny [expletive deleted] as I sold a chunk yesterday ready for the new tax year. So everything is probably now more expensive, still it's a long time to April.