The Lemon Fool

Hi,

If I still wanted to update my Curriculum Vitae, would I fill it with all my failures and disappointments?

Then why has the Corona Virus got half of the world running around in a panic?

It's basically a flu with minimal potency (compared to e.g. SARS and MERS). The media and governments seem determined to scare everyone to death, and drive economies into the dirt, and for what?

If normal flu figures were published daily, they'd put CV to shame. On Sky News yesterday they said CV had reached every continent bar Antarctica, on the basis of ONE case in Brazil and ONE, now recovered, case in Egypt. Lies, damned lies and statistics...

My theory, and one that no analyst seems to have yet publicly pronounced, is that because this is overwhelmingly (currently) a northern hemisphere (read: winter) phenomenon, it'll start to recede within weeks, as warmer weather arrives. That doesn't mean it won't necessarily migrate to the southern hemisphere during their winter season, but endemic is a lot different to pandemic. Ask anyone, if you could, who lived through 1918.

The over-reaction can be viewed in various ways. Fear, annoyance and loathing are some of the more basic, nihilistic, reactions. They solve nothing.

I'm looking forward to Stock Market bargains (the situation is what it is), but another opportunity, more relevant to this board, is the chance to visit normally packed sites whilst they are temporarily bereft of hordes of tourists, and not in war zones.

I am due in Rome next month, flight cancellations notwithstanding (coming from Asia), and I have no qualms about going. I'm booked to fly on to Morocco after a few days, but given the current situation, I'm starting to think that it may be a good opportunity to visit what will surely be the temporarily quieter tourist magnets of Florence and Venice. If the museums are closed, so what? There's so much history and culture to see outside.

Every cloud has a silver lining, but if you only watch mainstream media, you'd think the world is ending.

Happy Travels

Taurus

Nice post, I blame the mass media. They have created panic, and a collective madness, where rational voices get drowned out. Enjoy your travels..

I quite agree TTB, this morning's paper quoted the Chief Medical Officer as talking about 'shut-down Britain', last I heard, just 15 cases in this country. Scare mongering or what?

I would like to book some flights, Marrakech, Bari, Sri Lanka and maybe Kuala Lumpur, the fares should be rock bottom, but they're not. Why so?

I hope, if and when, this is all over, we will be told where to send the bill for all our financial losses, personal upheaval and general messed about with-ness!

Bon voyage,

dp

Thanks for the replies.

I agree dp. The media just wants to sensationalise everything. For example, if you see their world maps, countries are still coloured red even when known CV cases have recovered (e.g. Egypt, India, Vietnam). I'm by no means a Trump supporter but he does make a strong point when he talks about fake media.

Give airfares time to come down. Doing so now would be an admission that there are problems. Even in normal times a good time to book, outside high season, is 6-8 weeks before you intend travelling. Try www.secretflying.com - they have some good deals, updated daily.

Cheers
Taurus

Thanks for that link, Taurus. I found another site a month ago, Jack's Flight Club, sorry I can't post a link, I just can't!

I made the mistake of using kiwi.com for a flippant look at flights to Wuhan, now I can't escape their advert on TLF, Nottingham to Columbus for £220! I presume its the US city they mean.

All the best,

dp

scottnsilky wrote:I found another site a month ago, Jack's Flight Club, sorry I can't post a link, I just can't!

Allow me - https://jacksflightclub.com/

I'm a subscriber and there are some good deals on offer.

Hi,

Clearly, my OP has been overtaken by events, and my flights to and from Italy have been cancelled.

Hopefully, this pandemic will prove temporary, but in the meantime, all travel bets are off. Some things are more important.

Good luck to everyone for the coming ordeal.

Taurus

A friend flew Newcastle to Dublin yesterday. Five passengers on the plane.

You would think there would be real flight bargains around. But there don't seem to be. I guess many of the seats are currently still booked (and presumably paid for?). But this should reduce dramatically going forward.

Gryff

I have about 50,000 Amex reward points to transfer into air miles with Virgin Atlantic before I close that gold card down (I don't use the lounge passes to warrant the £140pa fee). Do we all feel Virgin Atlantic will weather the storm or should I park the points a bit longer?

neversay wrote:I have about 50,000 Amex reward points to transfer into air miles with Virgin Atlantic before I close that gold card down (I don't use the lounge passes to warrant the £140pa fee). Do we all feel Virgin Atlantic will weather the storm or should I park the points a bit longer?

Virgin is an interesting question. I have several ex-colleagues who have been taken on recently by VS. To date, their training slots have not been cancelled or delayed. This is not the case with others who have variously been delayed in starting, made redundant(again), had contracts cancelled and most recently been requested to take unpaid leave. All with European airlines. Aircrew hiring is a reasonable barometer of airline health. I feel VS is OK at the moment, but a prolonged restriction of long haul will empty the coffers quickly. VS has been on the brink before. Maybe keep the points with Amex for a bit longer.

Perhaps I have been feeling overly optimistic.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/virgi ... 49257.html

airbus330 wrote:Perhaps I have been feeling overly optimistic.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/virgi ... 49257.html

And it seems Alitalia is heading for full nationalisation. Yes, it has been weak for a long time, but perhaps the first of many ?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-italy-alitalia/italy-to-take-full-control-of-alitalia-as-virus-hits-sale-plan-report-idUKKBN2120PH

airbus330 wrote:Perhaps I have been feeling overly optimistic.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/virgi ... 49257.html

Thanks. I saw Richard Branson and other airline heads were calling for a £7.5bn rescue package. Given the length of the line for Government support, I can't see them being near the front. On the other hand, if there's a therapy (like the malaria/HIV drug combo that is being touted, or a 10-minute antibody test, it could spring back quite quickly as people are fit and certified to travel.

neversay wrote:

airbus330 wrote:Perhaps I have been feeling overly optimistic.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/virgi ... 49257.html

Thanks. I saw Richard Branson and other airline heads were calling for a £7.5bn rescue package. Given the length of the line for Government support, I can't see them being near the front. On the other hand, if there's a therapy (like the malaria/HIV drug combo that is being touted, or a 10-minute antibody test, it could spring back quite quickly as people are fit and certified to travel.

It is not so much a case of being 'certified' to travel- 'Do you mean in the sense of being nuts?' - but there is a lack of means to travel caused by countries closing their borders.

Dod

fca2019 wrote:Nice post, I blame the mass media. They have created panic, and a collective madness, where rational voices get drowned out. Enjoy your travels..

It may have been a nice post but wildly optimistic and off beam. Amazing how things can change in 3 weeks.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:

neversay wrote:

airbus330 wrote:Perhaps I have been feeling overly optimistic.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/virgi ... 49257.html

Thanks. I saw Richard Branson and other airline heads were calling for a £7.5bn rescue package. Given the length of the line for Government support, I can't see them being near the front. On the other hand, if there's a therapy (like the malaria/HIV drug combo that is being touted, or a 10-minute antibody test, it could spring back quite quickly as people are fit and certified to travel.

It is not so much a case of being 'certified' to travel- 'Do you mean in the sense of being nuts?' - but there is a lack of means to travel caused by countries closing their borders.

Dod

I'm referring to the other side of the sombrero when there's a mix of people with immunity and people still at risk. By certified, I mean able to provide a positive antibody sample at the airport in order to get permission to travel - initially for good reasons. There has to be a gradual reopening of international travel and eventually ramping back up to usual levels.

Slight aside: The mention of airline points is among the lowest of priorities in current times, but the guy behind the 'Head for Points' airmiles website has a bit more "skin in the game" than most:

"Let me put my own cards on the table. shows that I am currently sitting on 6.1 million points across my family members. Assuming 1p per point of value if spent well, this is £60,000 of value which is potentially at risk"


https://www.headforpoints.com/2020/03/1 ... -bankrupt/

neversay wrote:
I'm referring to the other side of the sombrero when there's a mix of people with immunity and people still at risk. By certified, I mean able to provide a positive antibody sample at the airport in order to get permission to travel - initially for good reasons. There has to be a gradual reopening of international travel and eventually ramping back up to usual levels.

Do you think that a return to the 'usual levels' is desirable?

We are all used to overcrowded airports and seen how easily disruption and delays result from any part of the system failing, because there is no room for flexibility in the takeoff and landing schedules.

When this blows over, we need to ask ourselves why we think we need to travel so much and whether Heathrow really needs a third runway (don't get me started on HS2).

Watis

Watis wrote:

neversay wrote:
I'm referring to the other side of the sombrero when there's a mix of people with immunity and people still at risk. By certified, I mean able to provide a positive antibody sample at the airport in order to get permission to travel - initially for good reasons. There has to be a gradual reopening of international travel and eventually ramping back up to usual levels.

Do you think that a return to the 'usual levels' is desirable?

We are all used to overcrowded airports and seen how easily disruption and delays result from any part of the system failing, because there is no room for flexibility in the takeoff and landing schedules.

When this blows over, we need to ask ourselves why we think we need to travel so much and whether Heathrow really needs a third runway (don't get me started on HS2).

Watis

Quite right. I incline toward being a Austrian school free-market libertarian, but have banged on for years about brittle supply chains, the potential for black-swans, threats of pandemics and overall sustainability. For all the tough months ahead I'm very optimistic that the world be can be better and more 'anti-fragile' as a result - if Governments can learn the lesson. That includes home working, telecommuting, localism, sensible travel, family resilience, saving, etc. We also dodged a bullet that it wasn't a non-self-limiting Ebola style virus.

I see this as a philosophical (Kantian) test.

That is, can humans act for the greater good rather than just for themselves?

Of course, the nature of news is that it generally reports the worst in people (panic buying, packed pubs etc.). There are, and always will be, greedy, irresponsible people, but we'll hopefully see more people acting responsibly as the inevitable dark days descend.

If CV acts as a wake-up call to the unfolding disaster of man-made climate change, then perhaps it will be the price that hunanity must pay.

Taurus