The Lemon Fool

88V8 wrote:Luni never applied his Zones concept to Prefs & Bonds. I wonder where one would draw the boundaries. I'm not sure that Goldilocks ever visited Russia.

Found this thread as I've been looking at RAVP as a potential new holding next month. I do draw boundaries when buying prefs - anything yielding >2*CTY yield is an entry point. Conversely I stop buying ordinaries there. My cack handed thinking being I would rather be drawing income from prefs than ords at such high yields. Hence RAVP, at 10.4% today, is on my radar.

By the way, I can't find RAVC quoted anywhere (eg. LSE, AJ Bell), have I missed something since they were last discussed here?

RAVC converted (sorry if that's not the official term) into a mix of ordinaries and RAVP. I think it was around September 2020.

moorfield wrote:Found this thread as I've been looking at RAVP as a potential new holding next month. I do draw boundaries when buying prefs - anything yielding >2*CTY yield is an entry point. Conversely I stop buying ordinaries there. My cack handed thinking being I would rather be drawing income from prefs than ords at such high yields. Hence RAVP, at 10.4% today, is on my radar.

The average Pref is yielding c 5.5%.
So these are perceived to be risky. When they were called Raven Russia, the risk was more obvious.
I sold out quite a while ago, perhaps wrongly.

The ords trade at roughly 70% of NAV, if one can believe the NAV.
Bullish comment here https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/res ... e-provider

I dare say the management are good at their trade and know the local landscape, so it's really all about the political risk. Stick em in the ISA for ten years and you'll be free and clear and have the laugh on those of us who sat on the sidelines.

V8

There's chat on ADVFN about RAVP. Hold a few.

Any thoughts on RE.B (REA prefs) now that they've declared restarting dividends. Hold a few, too.

Re RE.B - I believe they said something like "dependent on palm oil price staying at current levels"

I hold a few too - will be a good holding if they do pay this year's coupon and even better if they eventually pay previous years'.

Laughton wrote:Re RE.B - I believe they said something like "dependent on palm oil price staying at current levels"

I hold a few too - will be a good holding if they do pay this year's coupon and even better if they eventually pay previous years'.

A separate thread for RE.B here viewtopic.php?p=388638#p388638

11.2% yield currently, and one to watch over the next couple of months I think. Most of the group's subsidiaries are Russian LLC companies (obviously), so this SP may drop into distressed (ie. sub par) territory and lower if sanctions on Russia are passed by UK Govt and cashflow from subsidiaries to group is restricted. I missed filling my boots with distressed REA cums last year, and am keeping powder dry for any sharp drops here.

This company annoyed me by bouncing me out of the convertibles I held into RAV and RAVP, so I sold. A sub-par entry point might be of interest, but I would be concerned about the sustainability of the dividend. It is a while since I looked at the accounts, but the direction of travel is for all rents to be paid in RUB, but the dividend liability is in GBP. For obvious reasons the Rouble is not doing well at present.

Well these are now predictably in sub par territory, albeit with a bid/offer spread nearly as wide as Ukraine itself.

Two things concern me as a shareholder here, the possibility of (1) shares being suspended and (2) Russian companies being kicked off SWIFT. There appear to be no oligarchs on the board of directors who could be sanctioned individually.

I'm not sure I understand how (1) could happen here as RAV is technically HQd in Guernsey and the main holding company in Cyprus. But clearly that owns all the subsidiary branches/companies in Russia so (2) could restrict the flow of cash to the Group and presumably hold up the dividend for a while. However, that does not stop the business of the Russian warehouses continuing or the dividend accruing, it being cumulative of course.

We await more news, but at ~80p I could be very tempted to buy more ...

Just checked the price and could get 10k nominal for 78p. Could not get an online quote for a larger amount. Assuming payments continue, that is a running yield of about 15%. But how likely is it that payments will continue? They appear to be trading XD, but do they have sufficient hard currency cash outside Russia to make the payment? If the West succeeds in crippling Russia's economy, what level of rent defaults are likely?

This might be a great entry point, but too many imponderables for me.

If I held and could get 75p I would probably sell.

hiriskpaul wrote:Just checked the price and could get 10k nominal for 78p. Could not get an online quote for a larger amount. Assuming payments continue, that is a running yield of about 15%. But how likely is it that payments will continue? They appear to be trading XD, but do they have sufficient hard currency cash outside Russia to make the payment? If the West succeeds in crippling Russia's economy, what level of rent defaults are likely?

This might be a great entry point, but too many imponderables for me.

If I held and could get 75p I would probably sell.

For me the key question is the scale and effectiveness of a Western response. I think there will be a lot of talk, but meaningful action is still an open question. Even if there is full blooded package of sanctions, will that cripple Russia? There has been much reporting of actions Russia has taken in recent years to prepare for sanctions, plus China is not going to sanction Russia and I suspect will happily do more business with them. Have the days past where the West can cripple the Russian economy?

I don’t know. I am not selling, but not yet low enough for me to buy more.

hiriskpaul wrote:Just checked the price and could get 10k nominal for 78p. Could not get an online quote for a larger amount. Assuming payments continue, that is a running yield of about 15%. But how likely is it that payments will continue? They appear to be trading XD, but do they have sufficient hard currency cash outside Russia to make the payment? If the West succeeds in crippling Russia's economy, what level of rent defaults are likely?

This might be a great entry point, but too many imponderables for me.

If I held and could get 75p I would probably sell.

I sold my XD just below par. I have my fingers crossed I will get the dividend.

I will start by saying I have no interest in holding anything investment that might go to zero, or might go much much lower before it recovers. I appreciate RAVP is cumulative. So, regardless of the share price I'm not interested in buying RAVP at the moment. I would have to be assured RAVP will not be put on "buy only". i.e. if you own Russian investments you can keep them and sell them at your leisure but you are not allowed to buy any new ones. Also, I'm not really comfortable owning Russian assets now. This is a country who's leader has invaded Ukraine. Finally I do not trust Putin not to start ceasing Western assets or freeze them and the situation could deteriorate.

On to the numbers. At the half year the exchange rate was 103 rouble to the pound. Today is it 112. So, that's going to cause an adverse movement on the balance sheet in Sterling by quite a bit. Also, the servicing the Sterling denominated dividend becomes harder.

Also, at the half year, 38% of the debt was in Euro's. That becomes harder to service too.

Then we come to the property valuations. In the short term the sanctions will do nothing but in the long term it's going to hurt the Russian economy so property values may not rise as fast as expected. They may fall and fall significantly. Or they may not. Unless inflation takes over.

And then finally we have the Russian base rate which has risen from around 4.5% to 9.5%. Much of the Sterling and Euro debt has been converted to Roubles over the last couple of years so that's going to cost far more to service.

Gan020 wrote:On to the numbers. At the half year the exchange rate was 103 rouble to the pound. Today is it 112. ...servicing the Sterling denominated dividend becomes harder....38% of the debt was in Euros ..harder to service too....the Russian base rate which has risen from around 4.5% to 9.5%. Much of the Sterling and Euro debt has been converted to Roubles over the last couple of years so that's going to cost far more to service.

I got out when they switched to rouble accounting. That was about 15 months ago.

These are far too yolo for me

V8

Not looking like my decision to hold on was a great one!

Wizard wrote:Not looking like my decision to hold on was a great one!

RAVP is a small %age of my overall income, which can survive the dividend being suspended against overall target for the year. I have been watching the price and now tempted to buy more, but waiting for any RNS first. Getting an offer quote online seems very hit and miss this morning, but about 40p ish (on paper a yield of 30%).

moorfield wrote:

Wizard wrote:Not looking like my decision to hold on was a great one!

RAVP is a small %age of my overall income, which can survive the dividend being suspended against overall target for the year. I have been watching the price and now tempted to buy more, but waiting for any RNS first. Getting an offer quote online seems very hit and miss this morning, but about 40p ish (on paper a yield of 30%).

I see the spread is 27%, so perhaps not very liquid.
Never mind, long-term it may work out, and you've had a laugh on those of us who bailed out and missed that nice fat yield.
Meanwhile, they are cumulative, cling to that thought...

Still too yolo for me.

V8

For my sins, I retained some RAVP (Preference Shares) in Raven. I thought I'd have a look at their website to try to find out what, if anything, was happening here but the site is only open to shareholders and these need to register. The problem is that I need an "Investor Code "Format is IVC#####, can be found on your share certificates"

I'm sure I can't be the only holder frustrated that I don't hold certificates but I tried contacting the broker that holds these on my behalf in the hope that they could provide an "Investor Code" to be told:-

"As our shares are held electronically within Crest in a pooled nominee, we are unfortunately unable to obtain an IVC number."

Clicking on the CONTACT button the Raven site also requires that I am registered and so I go round and round in circles.

Has anyone managed to register and is so how? Anyone a good idea how I can locate an Investor Code or go about getting one or actually contacting someone at Raven to register?

Laughton wrote:Anyone a good idea how I can locate an Investor Code or go about getting one or actually contacting someone at Raven to register?

From another place If you write to Benn Garnham (Co. Sec.) at The Raven Group, enclosing screen shots/pdf's of your holding(s) he should advise on how to register as an investor on their site.
His email is bgarnham@theravenpropertygroup.com

No idea if that works. Meanwhile it appears you are due 15% or is it 20% interest on your overdue divis.

V8

Thanks 88V8.

I've emailed and hope to hear back.

Good info 88V8. I will try that too.
Could I ask where about you saw this Information?
Was it on another website as it would be good to know about the dividend info you mentioned
Thanks