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Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
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Where are we now

#295170

Postby Jonetc15 » March 28th, 2020, 5:47 pm

This is an elementary effort to sort out my thinking as to where we are now. FTSE 100 with (simple) daily moving averages, RSI and MACD below he graph. I'll really appreciate comments. It's an amateur's take - do your own research!

Chart 1: One year, daily, 20, 50, 200 d.m.a.s. https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 Some would note the 'dead cross' (only telling us after the event). But the index has just hit the declining 20 d.m.a. - Monday will tell us if this is resistance?

Chart 2: Five years, daily, 50 and 200 d.m.a.s https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The current level is rising to approximately the level of the March 2016 low.

Chart 3: Ten years, weekly, 50 and 200 d.m.a.s https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The weekly 50 d.m.a. is crossing down below the 200 d.m.a. Bearish?

No time to comment - really! OH reckons enough time spent online. Time for a glass of wine, and then supper beckons...

ATB - and stay safe
Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#295531

Postby Jonetc15 » March 29th, 2020, 8:33 pm

A correction. The first chart should show three d.m.a.s - 20, 50, 200. I hope that this second attempt achieves that: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

I wonder what anyone thinks about the FTSE 100. I'm a fascinated bystander who hasn't got a clue what will happen next...

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#296184

Postby Jonetc15 » March 31st, 2020, 4:19 pm

Herewith an interesting article: 'Will FTSE 100 and S&P 500 stocks reverse following rebalancing boost?':
https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-id ... g-b-200331

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#308610

Postby Jonetc15 » May 14th, 2020, 12:30 pm

Two comments to start with. First, for anyone who is not familiar with online charts please bear in mind that they are constantly updated. This means (for example) if you look at the charts which I previously posted you will have to scroll down to look at the date at the bottom of each and match that with the date of my comment. Second, I am a total amateur just thinking aloud as it were, so you should not rely, let alone act on my comments and of course do your own research.
For the past fortnight I have found it difficult to reconcile the chart of the FTSE 100 and the economic outlook, even bearing in mind the major overseas (rather than domestic) earnings of the FTSE, although global markets are very difficult to assess. I always look at fundamentals as well as the charts, and the latter have to be treated with considerable caution as unforeseen (‘Black Swan’/’unknown unknowns’) events hit individual shares and indices/markets.

Here is today’s one-year chart of the FTSE 100 as at 12:20 pm with the 50 and 200 daily moving averages. It shows the recovery in March, followed by an upward channel/trend: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The FTSE broke up through the 50 dma and is currently just above it. The RSI and MACD are in neutal ground, arguably showing a hint of downward divergence.

I have been wondering what would happen at the 6000/6500 range mark which many of you will remember was a significant resistance level in 1999-2000 and in 2006 to early 2008, with 6000 being resistance in 2011-2012. but then was a supporting base in 20015-2016.- see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 (which I have kept as a daily chart for consistent comparison when arguably it should have been weekly or even monthly).

The five year daily chart shows how 6000/6500 may now be a resistance level - see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

So, purely for my own purposes, I am treating the 6000/6500 as indicating that very solid buying will have to occur for there to be any significant move upwards. It may be that we are in a consolidating position, but it’s difficult to assess any downside potential. For my purposes, masterly activity (as they say) is the best course for the moment.

I hope that the links will work. Stay safe and DYOR
Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#308615

Postby Jonetc15 » May 14th, 2020, 12:44 pm

P.S. Corrections.

The second chart is in fact weekly.

The third chart is wrong. It should be the five year - see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Sorry.
Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#313082

Postby bluedonkey » May 28th, 2020, 4:04 pm

Thanks for the links. Looks like the 50 day average is rising and about to cross the daily graph. I may be talking out of the you know what so would be interested in any comments.

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Re: Where are we now

#314628

Postby Jonetc15 » June 2nd, 2020, 7:51 pm

bluedonkey wrote:Thanks for the links. Looks like the 50 day average is rising and about to cross the daily graph. I may be talking out of the you know what so would be interested in any comments.


Many thanks. Please remember that I am an amateur!

I have been watching the up-trend, wondering just how strong it really is, and who is buying, and why. On the chart (as at 7.15 pm on 02.06.2020, which will then be updated tomorrow onwards) 6200+ seems to be a significant level - see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Here are two pieces that I found interesting today.

First, IG UK’s FTSE 100 analysis by Joshua Mahony: ‘FTSE 100 could start to reverse if resistance is not broken’: see https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-id ... els-200602

Second, on the Hargreaves Lansdown website ‘What history shows you about the market's current rally’, published by Forbes today 02/06/2020, third paragraph from the end: ‘There is one worrying sign though. It’s valuation’: see https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/6/2/what ... rent-rally That’s what has worried me about the market – I simply don’t see, even looking (say) 18 months ahead, why I should commit cash to buying.

Only my thinking aloud for my purposes. DYOR etc and don’t rely on me…

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#318369

Postby Jonetc15 » June 14th, 2020, 5:14 pm

Here are some musings about the FTSE 100 – i.e. what I’m thinking purely for my very cautious approach, very risk-averse. Don’t rely on a word of it for your own decisions – i.e. DYOR/E&OE.

One year (with 50 & 200 dmas): https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 This shows the FTSE 100 above the 50 dma, but with the 200 dma looming ahead as possible resistance. The RSI and MACD appear to be turning down.

To me, the immediate question is whether the FTSE 100 will stay above the 50 dma – i.e. whether the up-trend will hold. The chart for the [b][u]year to date[/u][/b] zooms in on the up-trend (with 20, 50 & 200 dmas): https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The five year chart suggests that on the up-side there is historical resistance around 6600 (the base at the start of January 2019) upwards: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Bearing in mind the domestic and global economic and political issues I can see no good reason to commit any of my cash to buying at the moment. For my purposes I need to see whether the market holds above 6000. Of course things may look sufficiently bleak for the current level to be seen as a buying opportunity. Or the market could stay in the range 6000-65000. Please remember that I’m a total amateur, saying that the market could go up, or down, or stay where it is; and DYOR.

Jon
P.S. It would be great to have comments/contributions.
P.P.S. I used to get excellent p&fcharts from StockCharts, but I can’t now find the UK/FTSE 100 there any more, so it would be excellent if someone could create a link if possible.

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Re: Where are we now

#318375

Postby bluedonkey » June 14th, 2020, 6:28 pm

I think the recent market exuberance is overdone, it looks a very artificial rally, if there's such a thing. Can't help feeling that a does of reality will eventually burst this little bubble and then pessimism will return strongly for a while. That's when I would look to buy.

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Re: Where are we now

#319141

Postby Jonetc15 » June 17th, 2020, 4:42 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:… Here are two pieces that I found interesting today [02.06.2020].

First, IG UK’s FTSE 100 analysis by Joshua Mahony: ‘FTSE 100 could start to reverse if resistance is not broken’: see https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-id ... els-200602

Second, on the Hargreaves Lansdown website ‘What history shows you about the market's current rally’, published by Forbes today 02/06/2020, third paragraph from the end: ‘There is one worrying sign though. It’s valuation’: see https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/6/2/what ... rent-rally
Jon



Today [17.06.20] another article giving food for thought, in the Telegraph* by Tom Rees and Tim Wallace:

Stock markets are overvalued, fund managers warn
Almost 80pc of investment managers warn stocks are overvalued as markets become detached from the real economy’ - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gers-warn/


Jon
*(As it’s behind a paywall, for copyright reasons I don’t want to copy and paste extracts.)

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Re: Where are we now

#319445

Postby Jonetc15 » June 18th, 2020, 3:10 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:... Today [17.06.20] another article giving food for thought, in the Telegraph* by Tom Rees and Tim Wallace:

Stock markets are overvalued, fund managers warn
Almost 80pc of investment managers warn stocks are overvalued as markets become detached from the real economy’ - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gers-warn/


Jon
*(As it’s behind a paywall, for copyright reasons I don’t want to copy and paste extracts.)


A fuller version of this article is on Trustnet:

Record number of fund managers think stock market is ‘overvalued’
by Garry Jackson, Editor, Trustnet

The latest Bank of America research found that many investors are cautious after the strong run in equities’ – see https://www.trustnet.com/news/7464951/r ... overvalued

John

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Re: Where are we now

#322308

Postby Jonetc15 » June 28th, 2020, 3:25 pm

I'm still waiting patiently to invest some precious cash and pondering. As mentioned in previous posts I’m simply sharing some thoughts from my particular perspective on the basis of DYOR and E&OE. I'm sure that there are many of you who know far more about TA than me who could very helpfully contribute, especially if disagreeing with my amateur musings.

First of all a special plea. Please can someone very kindly provide a link to a P&F chart of the FTSE 100. This would massively help my thinking.

This coming week could be very interesting. Here is the FTSE 100 six months chart with 20, 50 and 200 dmas: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The MACD is falling. At 6159 the index is marginally above the 50 dma, which is in turn is marginally above 6000. A fall below the latter would break below the bottom of what I have seen as an important range, 6000-6500.

Even if that range holds, I see no reason for me to commit any cash to buying. The 200 dma continues to fall and to me is a potential resistance to any long term upward move by the FTSE. Even if the market breaks above that resistance it will be at the bottom of a major trading range over the past five years – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

All of this is ignores the torrent of national and global events. At the moment TA charts only tell me where we are and how we got there. All that the simple charts tell me for my purposes is to continue to sit tight and observe from the sidelines.

Another, more general plea. Please can others join me with their views, even if TA is more at the mercy of ‘unknown unknowns’/black swan events than it has been for many decades.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#322474

Postby redsturgeon » June 29th, 2020, 9:46 am

My view is that we are at about May 1930

https://www.macrotrends.net/2484/dow-jo ... ear-market

John

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Re: Where are we now

#322520

Postby bluedonkey » June 29th, 2020, 12:07 pm

redsturgeon wrote:My view is that we are at about May 1930

https://www.macrotrends.net/2484/dow-jo ... ear-market

John

Your view will in due course with hindsight prove to be incredibly prescient or ... not. Seriously, I do think the next big move will be down. OTOH I'm usually wrong.

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Re: Where are we now

#325687

Postby Jonetc15 » July 12th, 2020, 7:56 pm

bluedonkey wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:My view is that we are at about May 1930

https://www.macrotrends.net/2484/dow-jo ... ear-market

John

Your view will in due course with hindsight prove to be incredibly prescient or ... not. Seriously, I do think the next big move will be down. OTOH I'm usually wrong.


From my perspective (as a very cautious observer, waiting to invest cash) the FTSE 100 is below its 50 day moving average (and well below the descending 200 dma), but - perhaps crucially - at 6095.41 it's just above the 6000 bottom of the 6500-6000 range - see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Will buyers lift the FTSE 100 out of immediate danger? Or will sellers prevail, and if so to what extent? Or will the market stay just above 6000 and tease everyone further? That's why I'm still just watching.

DYOR, E&OE, and best wishes for your decision-making.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#325694

Postby GoSeigen » July 12th, 2020, 8:57 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:Will buyers lift the FTSE 100 out of immediate danger? Or will sellers prevail, and if so to what extent? Or will the market stay just above 6000 and tease everyone further? That's why I'm still just watching.

DYOR, E&OE, and best wishes for your decision-making.

Jon


Maybe sellers will lift the FTSE out of danger? I mean, why would anyone sensible want to sell at lower prices? Surely they are waiting for higher prices to sell?



GS

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Re: Where are we now

#325698

Postby Dod101 » July 12th, 2020, 9:06 pm

And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............

Dod

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Re: Where are we now

#325700

Postby Lootman » July 12th, 2020, 9:13 pm

Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world.

I have often thought that tacticians and technicians tend to be bearish because to them every bet is a binary one. Whereas in practice markets go up 2/3 or more of the time.

I do not trash TA and use it in certain limited ways. But back when i worked in the markets the TA guys were far from the highest paid, which might tell you something. They did get away with being the worst dressed, however :D

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Re: Where are we now

#325704

Postby GoSeigen » July 12th, 2020, 9:32 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:First of all a special plea. Please can someone very kindly provide a link to a P&F chart of the FTSE 100. This would massively help my thinking.


This should be good enough:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

GS

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Re: Where are we now

#325785

Postby GoSeigen » July 13th, 2020, 11:40 am

Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............


jonetc15 was writing about the FTSE: I don't think 7-10% is "missing a great rally". Should we really believe the FTSE is flat from here or going down? If so, why (noting which board we are on)?


GS


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