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Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#337987

Postby Jonetc15 » September 3rd, 2020, 8:43 pm

P.S.

The Dow Jones is down 3.30% as I write (around 20.30 hrs): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-marke ... /dow-jones

The NASDAQ is down 5.32% (also as I write): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/nasdaq

Tomorrow should be rather interesting.

Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#338042

Postby Jonetc15 » September 4th, 2020, 10:04 am

P.P.S.

Are the US markets, dominated of course by tech stocks, only taking a breather? The FTSE 100, entirely different in its component sectors,
appears (so far, at 09:53) to be waiting and seeing. Time to reflect over the weekend.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#338059

Postby langley59 » September 4th, 2020, 10:57 am

The discussion on CNBC yeasterday evening implied that the fallback is in high flying tech 'work from home' stocks which have been subject to much short term speculation by retail investors 'working from home'. Hopefully this signals a sector rotation rather than a general collapse in share prices.

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#341738

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 3:22 pm

Today's downwards pressure on the FTSE 100 can be seen both from TA and fundamentals.

The six month chart shows the critical state of the index, below the 50 dma and with the 200 dma ready to provide further resistance: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 Is this going to lead to a major breakout down from a trading range 5800-6500 that's lasted since end-April?

The p&f for ISF, proxy for the FTSE 100 (link courtesy of GoSeigen), scrolling down past other interesting charts, is hardly encouraging: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too… Will there be some bargain-hunting and/or support?

Jon

P.S. What we now need to help with TA is a chart showing Fibonacci levels. Any offers?
P.P.S. Don’t forget my DYOR and E&OE disclaimers.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Where are we now

#341741

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2020, 3:31 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#341774

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 5:41 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess



And I should have made it clearer, Itsallaguess, that I was quoting you because I think that you are entirely right. I feel that the bad news has come when, so far as TA is concerned, the picture is unattractive. In other words, TA tells us how the FTSE 100 got to where it is now. Put current news and TA together and arguably we have a perfect storm.

All the very best

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#346995

Postby Jonetc15 » October 11th, 2020, 8:14 pm

Are we nearly there?

In this context, for me as a complete amateur (so DYOR and E&OE) “there” is the point at which the FTSE 100 breaks out of the 5800-6000 range back into the slightly wider range of 6000-6300. Here is the six-month chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The chart shows that from May until now thhe FTSE 100 has traded within a remarkably tight range of 5800-6300, in which 5800 acted as strong support. Yet in spite of the considerable daily volatility of many of the FTSE’s component shares, 6300 became a resistance level – or, at least, it became the level above which there seemed to have been no desire to buy (apart from one brief rise to 6500 in June). Over five months spent in the narrow 500 point range 5800-6300 is remarkable under the circumstances, taking into account all of the global upheavals and domestic problems/uncertainties. Incidentally, there appears to be a down trend from the 6500 point in June, now at a key point, ready to be broken by an upward move, or else adding to the resistance.

So the FTSE 100 seems to have has reached a critical point where it has only just managed to close above the 50 daily moving average (at 6016.65 on Friday), and the falling 200 dma is a major hurdle, currently around 6300, and the down trend needs to be broken. The pattern of the (proxy ISF.L) P&F chart is described as “A Double Top Breakout 0n 08-Oct-2020” - https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO

I’m still observing from the side-lines, still wondering whether this is the time to start buying, but still preferring to preserve cash. Perhaps the trading pattern of the FTSE amounts to a collective “don’t know”. The question for me is how long this can continue.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#351093

Postby Jonetc15 » October 27th, 2020, 4:02 pm

To me the FTSE’s 100 critical support has for some time been 5800, per my previous jottings (which remain on the basis of DYOR and E&OE). This has seen trading in a relatively tight range.

The FTSE 100 closed on Wednesday (21st) at 5776.50, just above the day’s low of 5769.52, having traded up to 5903.38 at one stage. On Thursday (22nd) it closed at 5785.70, having recovered from a low of 5716.40. But it closed the week on Friday at 5860.30, with higher volume than for some time - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE ... E/history/

So yesterday and today I’ve been looking to see whether buyers will lift the FTSE back above the 5800 support. The FTSE 100 closed yesterday (26th) at 5792.02. Today the 5800 support is still being questioned. The FTSE 100 (3:40 pm) is 5732.91, having briefly hit 5806.23. Other markets are weak.

The ISF.L p&f chart (used as a proxy for the FTSE) shows lower highs and a recent support for a considerable time around the equivalent of 5800 – see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO .

The six month candlestick chart of the FTSE shows the 50 dma as a clear resistance, as too the 200 dma – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

I’m going to continue to preserve cash, especially taking into account all the domestic and international turmoil and stresses. Others may regard this as a potential buying opportunity. If so, good luck to them.

Jon


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