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Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#337987

Postby Jonetc15 » September 3rd, 2020, 8:43 pm

P.S.

The Dow Jones is down 3.30% as I write (around 20.30 hrs): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-marke ... /dow-jones

The NASDAQ is down 5.32% (also as I write): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/nasdaq

Tomorrow should be rather interesting.

Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#338042

Postby Jonetc15 » September 4th, 2020, 10:04 am

P.P.S.

Are the US markets, dominated of course by tech stocks, only taking a breather? The FTSE 100, entirely different in its component sectors,
appears (so far, at 09:53) to be waiting and seeing. Time to reflect over the weekend.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#338059

Postby langley59 » September 4th, 2020, 10:57 am

The discussion on CNBC yeasterday evening implied that the fallback is in high flying tech 'work from home' stocks which have been subject to much short term speculation by retail investors 'working from home'. Hopefully this signals a sector rotation rather than a general collapse in share prices.

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#341738

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 3:22 pm

Today's downwards pressure on the FTSE 100 can be seen both from TA and fundamentals.

The six month chart shows the critical state of the index, below the 50 dma and with the 200 dma ready to provide further resistance: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 Is this going to lead to a major breakout down from a trading range 5800-6500 that's lasted since end-April?

The p&f for ISF, proxy for the FTSE 100 (link courtesy of GoSeigen), scrolling down past other interesting charts, is hardly encouraging: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too… Will there be some bargain-hunting and/or support?

Jon

P.S. What we now need to help with TA is a chart showing Fibonacci levels. Any offers?
P.P.S. Don’t forget my DYOR and E&OE disclaimers.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Where are we now

#341741

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2020, 3:31 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#341774

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 5:41 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess



And I should have made it clearer, Itsallaguess, that I was quoting you because I think that you are entirely right. I feel that the bad news has come when, so far as TA is concerned, the picture is unattractive. In other words, TA tells us how the FTSE 100 got to where it is now. Put current news and TA together and arguably we have a perfect storm.

All the very best

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#346995

Postby Jonetc15 » October 11th, 2020, 8:14 pm

Are we nearly there?

In this context, for me as a complete amateur (so DYOR and E&OE) “there” is the point at which the FTSE 100 breaks out of the 5800-6000 range back into the slightly wider range of 6000-6300. Here is the six-month chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The chart shows that from May until now thhe FTSE 100 has traded within a remarkably tight range of 5800-6300, in which 5800 acted as strong support. Yet in spite of the considerable daily volatility of many of the FTSE’s component shares, 6300 became a resistance level – or, at least, it became the level above which there seemed to have been no desire to buy (apart from one brief rise to 6500 in June). Over five months spent in the narrow 500 point range 5800-6300 is remarkable under the circumstances, taking into account all of the global upheavals and domestic problems/uncertainties. Incidentally, there appears to be a down trend from the 6500 point in June, now at a key point, ready to be broken by an upward move, or else adding to the resistance.

So the FTSE 100 seems to have has reached a critical point where it has only just managed to close above the 50 daily moving average (at 6016.65 on Friday), and the falling 200 dma is a major hurdle, currently around 6300, and the down trend needs to be broken. The pattern of the (proxy ISF.L) P&F chart is described as “A Double Top Breakout 0n 08-Oct-2020” - https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO

I’m still observing from the side-lines, still wondering whether this is the time to start buying, but still preferring to preserve cash. Perhaps the trading pattern of the FTSE amounts to a collective “don’t know”. The question for me is how long this can continue.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#351093

Postby Jonetc15 » October 27th, 2020, 4:02 pm

To me the FTSE’s 100 critical support has for some time been 5800, per my previous jottings (which remain on the basis of DYOR and E&OE). This has seen trading in a relatively tight range.

The FTSE 100 closed on Wednesday (21st) at 5776.50, just above the day’s low of 5769.52, having traded up to 5903.38 at one stage. On Thursday (22nd) it closed at 5785.70, having recovered from a low of 5716.40. But it closed the week on Friday at 5860.30, with higher volume than for some time - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE ... E/history/

So yesterday and today I’ve been looking to see whether buyers will lift the FTSE back above the 5800 support. The FTSE 100 closed yesterday (26th) at 5792.02. Today the 5800 support is still being questioned. The FTSE 100 (3:40 pm) is 5732.91, having briefly hit 5806.23. Other markets are weak.

The ISF.L p&f chart (used as a proxy for the FTSE) shows lower highs and a recent support for a considerable time around the equivalent of 5800 – see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO .

The six month candlestick chart of the FTSE shows the 50 dma as a clear resistance, as too the 200 dma – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

I’m going to continue to preserve cash, especially taking into account all the domestic and international turmoil and stresses. Others may regard this as a potential buying opportunity. If so, good luck to them.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#353883

Postby Jonetc15 » November 5th, 2020, 7:54 pm

At the crossroads?

First a reminder. Most of the charts on this thread are updated during trading hours. So if you are looking at a previous post please check the date at the bottom of the chart. I’ve been caught out quite a few times by failing to remember this.

For some time I have treated 5800 (and previously 6000) as a significant support for the FTSE 100. After falling below 5600 it recovered to close yesterday (4th) at 5883.30. Today its closing level - 5906.18 – coincides with two significant features: not only the 50 dma, but also at the top of a well-established down trend from June – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Then there’s the 200 dma, usually regarded as significant as support or resistance. I have a question about this. It is still falling so steeply, in contrast to its usual smoother line (e.g. as before the precipitous fall earlier this year), that I wonder whether it will be easier to breach if there’s upward impetus from a rise in the FTSE above the 50 dma and, importantly, above and so out of the downtrend.

Scrolling down the ISF.L charts, proxy for the FTSE 100, shows the FTSE on a weekly and daily basis: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

For my purposes (observing from the sidelines) I wonder whether the FTSE will pause tomorrow Friday 6th for thought/consolidation. With the downtrend and the 50 dma converging with the FTSE just below the 200 dma, this would be a logical approach. Or does the FTSE (and do other markets) have momentum for a continuation of the recent recovery?

But I’m keeping in mind that all of this is short term, as illustrated by the three year chart – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#354982

Postby Jonetc15 » November 9th, 2020, 7:40 pm

Out of the blue – news of a vaccine

While the good news about a coronavirus vaccine was always a possibility, it came today out of the blue and the markets rose exceptionally strongly. By contrast, Biden’s election victory or otherwise was a ‘known unknown’ which has now been resolved. But TA tells us the context of today’s reaction.

The FTSE 100, in line with other stocks worldwide, closed up 4.67% at 6186.29 (having hit an intra-day high at 6258.31). Before the vaccine announcement it had (i) risen well above the 50 dma; (ii) broken out of the downtrend, and (iii) approached the 6000 level. It is now in the 6000-6300 and/or 6000/6500 ranges. And it has risen sharply through the 200 dma, which, if today’s action is sustained, will probably become a support level – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The Dow Jones is (as at 7.23 pm) up 4.74%. – see: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU and note how it has bounced off the 200 dma and shot up way above the 50 dma.

For me one question is whether FTSE hold above the 200 dma. The other question is whether the FTSE is here to stay in a trading range above 6000. And, of course, DYOR/E&OE.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#357908

Postby Jonetc15 » November 18th, 2020, 8:11 pm

Double-crossing

There are two interesting signals – the ‘dead cross’ and the ‘golden cross’. As I understand it (and please remember that I’m very much an amateur when it comes to TA), the indicators have to be treated with caution because they lag the up-to-date price. Taking the three daily moving averages (dmas) that I’ve been using, a ‘dead’ cross appears when the 20 dma breaks below the 50 dma, and then the 50 dma breaks below the 200 dma. Conversely, with a ‘golden’ cross the 20 dma breaks up through the 50 dma, which in turn breaks up through the 200 dma.

At the end of March 2020 the 50 dma broke down through the 200 dma just as the precipitous fall of the FTSE 100 was happening. It was arguably too late to catch the first phase of the fall – see the 20, 50 and 200 dmas on the 1 year chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 But now there seems to be a strong case for saying that a golden cross is almost bound to appear shortly.

This is clearer if we look at the far shorter 14, 24 and 40 dmas on the same I year chart; a golden cross appears to have been almost completed – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 (I believe that traders use far shorter dmas.I’ll be very grateful for any comments correcting and/or rejecting anything that I write.)

The FTSE 100 has risen past the 6300 mark, closing today (Thursday 18th) at 6385.24, but it seems to be slightly reluctant to rise through the 6400 mark, which is not far short of the high of 6,484.30 last June. It may well need a period of consolidation, but IMHO (and, as usual, DYOR, E&OE) a Brexit agreement could possibly trigger a further rise in market, with investors looking 18 months ahead after (we hope) successful mass vaccinations against Covid and (again, we hope) there has been an eventual transition from the Trump to the Biden presidency. I venture to suggest that there’s the possibility of some sort of Santa rally ahead. That’s not a forecast or prediction, merely a possible scenario. National and international events could well and truly wreck it, testing the 5800-6000 support level severely.

One more point - upside resistance. Historically there’s the low of 6600 in December 2018/January 2019. Will this be a possible resistance, being the bottom of a major trading range from July 2016? See: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Please don’t take any of this seriously. I don’t want anyone to think that I know what I’m talking about (thinking aloud, per my OP), so I’ll probably take a break from posting and wait to see what happens. It really would help if others could critically comment.

Jon
P.S. Please remember that most of the charts on this thread are updated during trading hours. So if you are looking at a previous post please check the date at the bottom of the chart.

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#358386

Postby Jonetc15 » November 20th, 2020, 12:19 pm

P.S. A correction - "closing today (Thursday 18th) at 6385.24" should of course read "closing today (Wednesday 18th) at 6385.24


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