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Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#443669

Postby Jonetc15 » September 19th, 2021, 7:56 pm

It should be an interesting day tomorrow, Monday 20 September. So far as I can see, the FTSE 100 has been in a trading range 6800 to 7200 since last March, with a rising 200 dma. However, I haven’t seen any sign of a serious attempt to break above 7200 - as to which, please see a one year chart with 20, 50 and 200 dmas: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

At 6963.64 the FTSE is trading below its 50 dma and hovering above the 200 dma, which is above 6800. So any significant breach of the 6800 might suggest a period of weakness, as already indicated by the RSI and MACD.

I’m also noting the three year chart showing the context of the current market – i.e. heading into admittedly historical resistance: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Lastly, The P&F IFL [proxy] chart is described as a ‘Double Bottom Breakdown’ on 17 September : https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

I see no reason to commit any of my carefully hoarded cash to the market. But this post could be embarrassingly wrong… (So DYOR and E&OE, as ever).

ATB
Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#444060

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2021, 10:21 am

Reassuring bounce off the 200 dma (as at 10:15 this morning). Watching the market far more closely than usual. No idea what will happen at what seems to be a major point technically.

Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#444402

Postby Jonetc15 » September 22nd, 2021, 12:27 pm

Yesterday's (Tuesday 21) pattern on the FTSE 100 P&F chart is described as a 'Low Pole Reversal' - see: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

For a definition/explanation, see: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php ... pnf_alerts
For copyright reasons I'm only quoting part of one explanation (scrolling down to the end of the page):
"The low pole reversal is seen when a chart falls below a previous low by at least 3 boxes, before reversing to rise by at least 50 percent of the fall. The reversal implies that the supply that was making the prices fall has been absorbed and demand is taking over. [etc]..."

For other definitions see (e.g.) https://duckduckgo.com/?q=low+pole+reve ... 1-1&ia=web

The market is dithering, at least as I see it. (DYOR and E&OE)

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#467605

Postby Jonetc15 » December 20th, 2021, 5:46 pm

A thought-provoking article. For copyright reasons the extracts below are simply to encourage people to read it.

Retail investors riding the bull market could spur a populist backlash - https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/r ... -backlash/

“Arguably, the bull market of 2021 is the same one that started in 2009, with one big change. Retail investors, who sat on the sidelines for so many years, rushed in after the pandemic-induced flash crash last year and have since been buying every dip with mounting enthusiasm. They represent not only a new cohort of investors but a new voting bloc, increasing the risk of populist backlash should one of the dips turn into another bear market….

….But many retail investors are placing their bets in a highly speculative way, for example by buying one-day call options or stocks with low nominal value that are easy to lever up….

….None of this necessarily portends an imminent crash. There is still plenty of liquidity sloshing around the system and even some of the most sophisticated investors fret that there is no alternative to owning stocks with interest rates so low. But having done so much to inspire this retail investor mania, governments and central banks could face a major backlash when the next bear market inevitably arrives.”

Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#468886

Postby Jonetc15 » December 28th, 2021, 9:10 pm

'Triple Top Breakout' for the ISF.L proxy for FTSE 100 on 24-Dec-2021: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

Here's the FTSE 100 one-year chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

And the three-year: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Food for thought...

Jon
(E&OE)

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Re: Where are we now

#468893

Postby BT63 » December 28th, 2021, 10:13 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:'Triple Top Breakout' for the ISF.L proxy for FTSE 100 on 24-Dec-2021: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

Here's the FTSE 100 one-year chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

And the three-year: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Food for thought...

Jon
(E&OE)


How reliable is a breakout in the quirky, low-volume Christmas trading?
I seem to recall that the FTSE made what was then an all-time high (6930pts) on the last trading day of 1999 in light trade, and by the end of the first week of January 2000 it had fallen 7%, falling further to reach a 13% decline by mid-February.

GoSeigen
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Re: Where are we now

#468919

Postby GoSeigen » December 29th, 2021, 5:41 am

Jonetc15 wrote:'Triple Top Breakout' for the ISF.L proxy for FTSE 100 on 24-Dec-2021: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P


I agree, very bullish this, especially at the FTSE is pretty close to new all-time highs as well. I've closed all my short calls in the recent consolidation, think it might be a good time to write puts again...

GS

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#469039

Postby Jonetc15 » December 29th, 2021, 4:48 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:'Triple Top Breakout' for the ISF.L proxy for FTSE 100 on 24-Dec-2021: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P


I agree, very bullish this, especially at the FTSE is pretty close to new all-time highs as well. I've closed all my short calls in the recent consolidation, think it might be a good time to write puts again...

GS


Good to have replies from BT63 and you, GS.

I have to say that I was slightly cautious in saying 'Food for thought...' rather than suggesting that the charts are 'very bullish'. Good luck with your trades!

ATB

Jon


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