Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18679
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6561 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#135997

Postby Lootman » May 1st, 2018, 12:27 pm

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:Dividends are inflation proofed as company's product prices, and usually profits and dividends, rise with inflation.

Yes, the total return partly reflects inflation, but there is no reason to deflate capital but not dividends with that effect.

You are trying to have your cake and eat it too, and we're not falling for it. Dividends provide about 40% of total returns. Moreover there is no evidence that total return is correlated to dividend yield. If there was then a share yielding 8% would give the highest return and one yielding 0% would give the lowest.

GoSeigen
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4349
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:14 pm
Has thanked: 1590 times
Been thanked: 1579 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136026

Postby GoSeigen » May 1st, 2018, 1:44 pm

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:
Dividends are inflation proofed as company's product prices, and usually profits and dividends, rise with inflation.


Oh, so dividends rise with inflation and profits do, but you believe retained profits do not, and expected future earnings do not, so that market value of the company priced off those two variables also does not rise in line with inflation?

The magical dividends of fairyland!


GS

OhNoNotimAgain
Lemon Slice
Posts: 767
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 147 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136031

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » May 1st, 2018, 2:03 pm

Lootman wrote:
OhNoNotimAgain wrote:Dividends are inflation proofed as company's product prices, and usually profits and dividends, rise with inflation.

Yes, the total return partly reflects inflation, but there is no reason to deflate capital but not dividends with that effect.

You are trying to have your cake and eat it too, and we're not falling for it. Dividends provide about 40% of total returns. Moreover there is no evidence that total return is correlated to dividend yield. If there was then a share yielding 8% would give the highest return and one yielding 0% would give the lowest.


Repeatedly quoting an incorrect figure does not make it right.

No one, other than you, is talking about dividend yield. That incorporates price wheres I am talking only about dividends.

OhNoNotimAgain
Lemon Slice
Posts: 767
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 147 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136033

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » May 1st, 2018, 2:06 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
OhNoNotimAgain wrote:
Dividends are inflation proofed as company's product prices, and usually profits and dividends, rise with inflation.


Oh, so dividends rise with inflation and profits do, but you believe retained profits do not, and expected future earnings do not, so that market value of the company priced off those two variables also does not rise in line with inflation?

The magical dividends of fairyland!


GS


I think expected future earnings can often be fairyland stuff. Dividends are verified by a cash transfer, there is nothing magical about them.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18679
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6561 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136058

Postby Lootman » May 1st, 2018, 4:16 pm

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:No one, other than you, is talking about dividend yield. That incorporates price wheres I am talking only about dividends.

Since yield is the dividend expressed as a percentage of the price, it's the exact same thing, merely expressed differently.

And there is no more evidence that returns correlate to high dividends than that returns correlate to high yield.

OhNoNotimAgain
Lemon Slice
Posts: 767
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 147 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136059

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » May 1st, 2018, 4:26 pm

Lootman wrote:
OhNoNotimAgain wrote:No one, other than you, is talking about dividend yield. That incorporates price wheres I am talking only about dividends.

Since yield is the dividend expressed as a percentage of the price, it's the exact same thing, merely expressed differently.

And there is no more evidence that returns correlate to high dividends than that returns correlate to high yield.


With respect they are entirely different. A dividend is hard cash number. Yield is relative figure entirely dependent on the valuation, which is subjective, placed on it by a third party which can change. Once paid a dividend can never be changed.

DiamondEcho
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3131
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:39 pm
Has thanked: 3060 times
Been thanked: 554 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#136990

Postby DiamondEcho » May 4th, 2018, 10:38 pm

Lootman wrote:It's interesting that in the UK a low nominal share price is deemed desirable, whereas in the US a high nominal share price confers a sense of status and success. In reality of course it doesn't matter at all, except if you use options.


There is or certainly was something to this, historic I expect. US listed shares 'were expected' to fall within price bands, or else something within the commission or similar structure started handicapping them. So for example companies often had 'splits' at $100. Others engineered keeping their price above $10 or $20 for parallel reasons.
[I forget the rationale now, this is back from when I did my Series-7 in the 90s. It all seems rather arbitrary/archaic now, but that's how it was].

TUK020
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2039
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 7:41 am
Has thanked: 762 times
Been thanked: 1175 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#224686

Postby TUK020 » May 27th, 2019, 11:11 am

Link courtesy of Monevator

Mathematics Investor don't think much of techncial analysis:

https://mathinvestor.org/2019/05/techni ... ial-media/

SentimentRules
Lemon Slice
Posts: 296
Joined: July 6th, 2019, 11:28 am
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 21 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#234387

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 11:43 am

Charts are a vital tool. The problem is interpretation or/and , what your trying to identify. I dont view charts as technical. They are the story of fundamentals. In real-time too which is important. Probably best to forget what we (retail ) are doing. Their use is to identify what the funds are at. Nobody else matters really.

Fundamentals have their use too. But I find fundamentals pretty useless without charts. Fundamentals are the very same as charts... we interpret them. So it's always best to make sure the money is entering your perception.

It isn't a case of technical v fundamental. It's technical plus fundamental.

And lets be honest. I have read forums for years. Who can honestly say that either have been more successful than the other? I see an equal failure rate.

I have watched people show great expertise. Example I could use is maybe HUR and some retail knowledge of the oil industry . They made a great case for HUR between 56 to 64p. Then I saw another guy on a forum come in and say ' volumes and moneyflow are exiting. Its screwed' He had no knowledge of the oil sector. Then it crashed a week later.

In markets, knowledge is a dangerous thing if you can't back it up technically.

As one famous investor said:

I use fundamentals and charts. But if I was stranded on an island with only one tool at my disposal? It would have to be charts.

SentimentRules
Lemon Slice
Posts: 296
Joined: July 6th, 2019, 11:28 am
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 21 times

Re: Where Have all the Chartists Gone?

#234394

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 12:02 pm

Lootman wrote:
OhNoNotimAgain wrote:
Lootman wrote:Once a dividend is paid, it is cash. If you choose to use that cash to buy more shares then, over time, you will have more money than someone who spends them. However that does not prove that the majority of returns comes from dividends. It comes from investing cash.

In my view that is cash from the original investment, you are not reaching into your back pocket to commit fresh capital. It is cash that is only available because of the dividend paid by that company and would not be available from a company that did not pay dividends, or paid out less.

Some companies choose to give more of their returns as dividends. Others choose to give it more in terms of capital gains. You have not demonstrated the former is superior. You have only reiterated what everyone knows about compounding. And gains compound just like dividends do.

About 40% of returns derive from dividends versus 60% from capital gains. That is obvious from the fact the dividend yield on the index is less than half the long-term annualised rate of total return.


Dividend is a fools game. On the whole, on ex dividend date, the SP drops the same percentage as dividend rate. It's a zero sum game. There will be many arguments about its benefits. However has anyone researched where fund money is primarily buying over the last few years? The majority of that money doesn't seem too interested in dividends . And its their money that counts. Not ours.


Return to “Technical Analysis”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests