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Average Earnings Index K54U

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
tjh290633
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Average Earnings Index K54U

#195646

Postby tjh290633 » January 22nd, 2019, 5:44 pm

I download the spreadsheet EARN01 from the ONS website, https://www.ons.gov.uk/ each month and record the figures for Average Earnings Index, K54U in my own spreadsheet.

Normally the figures for 4 or 5 months back change slightly in each subsequent issue, but this month the figures vary from the December issue, back for a number of years. For example, January 2015 was 151.9 in December's spreadsheet and 151.7 in January's spreadsheet.

The changes appear from December 2013 onwards, increasing in amplitude from July 2014 onwards.

Why might this be? https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... y-earnings does not mention any adjustments.

TJH

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Re: Average Earnings Index K54U

#195708

Postby GoSeigen » January 22nd, 2019, 9:31 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I download the spreadsheet EARN01 from the ONS website, https://www.ons.gov.uk/ each month and record the figures for Average Earnings Index, K54U in my own spreadsheet.

Normally the figures for 4 or 5 months back change slightly in each subsequent issue, but this month the figures vary from the December issue, back for a number of years. For example, January 2015 was 151.9 in December's spreadsheet and 151.7 in January's spreadsheet.

The changes appear from December 2013 onwards, increasing in amplitude from July 2014 onwards.

Why might this be? https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... y-earnings does not mention any adjustments.

TJH


Does this page help?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... p/previous

If not, maybe contact Roger Smith listed on the page as responsible for the series and ask him what has changed.


GS

tjh290633
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Re: Average Earnings Index K54U

#195740

Postby tjh290633 » January 22nd, 2019, 11:09 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Does this page help?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... p/previous

If not, maybe contact Roger Smith listed on the page as responsible for the series and ask him what has changed.


GS

I am used to seeing changes to recent months, as data are presumably refined.

I can't really conceive what change caused figures going back 5 years to be revised.

Good idea about contacting him.

TJH

tjh290633
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Re: Average Earnings Index K54U

#195973

Postby tjh290633 » January 23rd, 2019, 10:31 pm

Reply received from ONS:

Thank you for your query below.

The usual revision policy is as follows:

Unadjusted data (EARN02 and EARN03) carries provisional data for the current month and the previous month is open for revision.
Seasonally Adjusted data (EARN01) carries provisional data for the current month with the previous two months and the same three months one year ago open for revision.

On the latest dataset:

Unadjusted - the data was open for revision from 201404 to take on updates to the estimates for companies with few than 20 employees.
Seasonally Adjusted - due to the updates to the unadjusted data, plus extra data availability for the 'real' AWE series, a seasonal adjustment review was carried out. When there is a seasonal review of this nature all periods are open for revision on EARN01 (200001 - current).

Please see note 1 on the 'Introduction' tab of EARN01 where these changes are detailed.

I hope this helps but please come back to us if you require further information.

Kind regards
Sandra

The Note on Earn01 says:

1 In January 2019, estimates were revised back to the start of the series in January 2000. 
This was due to a) a review of the seasonal adjustment process, b) utilising the latest information from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings to improve the estimation of earnings of employees of small businesses and c) addition of real awe estimates from 2000 to December 2004, facilitated by ONS publication of pre-2005 CPIH estimates.   
i) An article providing details about the improvements to estimation of earnings of employees of small businesses is published in this link: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... thodology/
ii) detail about ONS's publication of pre-2005 CPIH estimates (which are not a National Statistic) is published in this link: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... 1988to2004
The seasonal adjustment models for real awe are based on the full data series, from 2000 onwards

TJH


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