Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#337987

Postby Jonetc15 » September 3rd, 2020, 8:43 pm

P.S.

The Dow Jones is down 3.30% as I write (around 20.30 hrs): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-marke ... /dow-jones

The NASDAQ is down 5.32% (also as I write): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/nasdaq

Tomorrow should be rather interesting.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#338042

Postby Jonetc15 » September 4th, 2020, 10:04 am

P.P.S.

Are the US markets, dominated of course by tech stocks, only taking a breather? The FTSE 100, entirely different in its component sectors,
appears (so far, at 09:53) to be waiting and seeing. Time to reflect over the weekend.

Jon

langley59
Lemon Slice
Posts: 325
Joined: November 12th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 120 times
Been thanked: 102 times

Re: Where are we now

#338059

Postby langley59 » September 4th, 2020, 10:57 am

The discussion on CNBC yeasterday evening implied that the fallback is in high flying tech 'work from home' stocks which have been subject to much short term speculation by retail investors 'working from home'. Hopefully this signals a sector rotation rather than a general collapse in share prices.

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#341738

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 3:22 pm

Today's downwards pressure on the FTSE 100 can be seen both from TA and fundamentals.

The six month chart shows the critical state of the index, below the 50 dma and with the 200 dma ready to provide further resistance: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 Is this going to lead to a major breakout down from a trading range 5800-6500 that's lasted since end-April?

The p&f for ISF, proxy for the FTSE 100 (link courtesy of GoSeigen), scrolling down past other interesting charts, is hardly encouraging: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too… Will there be some bargain-hunting and/or support?

Jon

P.S. What we now need to help with TA is a chart showing Fibonacci levels. Any offers?
P.P.S. Don’t forget my DYOR and E&OE disclaimers.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Where are we now

#341741

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2020, 3:31 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#341774

Postby Jonetc15 » September 21st, 2020, 5:41 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:
As for fundamentals, I remember that on 15 July Itsallaguess wrote: “…I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led".

Well, with the global markets falling and our concerns over Covid-19, we’ve got news too…


Well given the recent rapid and widespread up-tick in global COVID cases, and the poor outlook regarding that as we move into the winter months, then it seems to me that we've got falling markets because of that news, so I'll maintain the view that I took back in July that this is likely to be a primarily 'news-led' market for some time yet...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess



And I should have made it clearer, Itsallaguess, that I was quoting you because I think that you are entirely right. I feel that the bad news has come when, so far as TA is concerned, the picture is unattractive. In other words, TA tells us how the FTSE 100 got to where it is now. Put current news and TA together and arguably we have a perfect storm.

All the very best

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#346995

Postby Jonetc15 » October 11th, 2020, 8:14 pm

Are we nearly there?

In this context, for me as a complete amateur (so DYOR and E&OE) “there” is the point at which the FTSE 100 breaks out of the 5800-6000 range back into the slightly wider range of 6000-6300. Here is the six-month chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The chart shows that from May until now thhe FTSE 100 has traded within a remarkably tight range of 5800-6300, in which 5800 acted as strong support. Yet in spite of the considerable daily volatility of many of the FTSE’s component shares, 6300 became a resistance level – or, at least, it became the level above which there seemed to have been no desire to buy (apart from one brief rise to 6500 in June). Over five months spent in the narrow 500 point range 5800-6300 is remarkable under the circumstances, taking into account all of the global upheavals and domestic problems/uncertainties. Incidentally, there appears to be a down trend from the 6500 point in June, now at a key point, ready to be broken by an upward move, or else adding to the resistance.

So the FTSE 100 seems to have has reached a critical point where it has only just managed to close above the 50 daily moving average (at 6016.65 on Friday), and the falling 200 dma is a major hurdle, currently around 6300, and the down trend needs to be broken. The pattern of the (proxy ISF.L) P&F chart is described as “A Double Top Breakout 0n 08-Oct-2020” - https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO

I’m still observing from the side-lines, still wondering whether this is the time to start buying, but still preferring to preserve cash. Perhaps the trading pattern of the FTSE amounts to a collective “don’t know”. The question for me is how long this can continue.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#351093

Postby Jonetc15 » October 27th, 2020, 4:02 pm

To me the FTSE’s 100 critical support has for some time been 5800, per my previous jottings (which remain on the basis of DYOR and E&OE). This has seen trading in a relatively tight range.

The FTSE 100 closed on Wednesday (21st) at 5776.50, just above the day’s low of 5769.52, having traded up to 5903.38 at one stage. On Thursday (22nd) it closed at 5785.70, having recovered from a low of 5716.40. But it closed the week on Friday at 5860.30, with higher volume than for some time - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE ... E/history/

So yesterday and today I’ve been looking to see whether buyers will lift the FTSE back above the 5800 support. The FTSE 100 closed yesterday (26th) at 5792.02. Today the 5800 support is still being questioned. The FTSE 100 (3:40 pm) is 5732.91, having briefly hit 5806.23. Other markets are weak.

The ISF.L p&f chart (used as a proxy for the FTSE) shows lower highs and a recent support for a considerable time around the equivalent of 5800 – see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO .

The six month candlestick chart of the FTSE shows the 50 dma as a clear resistance, as too the 200 dma – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

I’m going to continue to preserve cash, especially taking into account all the domestic and international turmoil and stresses. Others may regard this as a potential buying opportunity. If so, good luck to them.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#353883

Postby Jonetc15 » November 5th, 2020, 7:54 pm

At the crossroads?

First a reminder. Most of the charts on this thread are updated during trading hours. So if you are looking at a previous post please check the date at the bottom of the chart. I’ve been caught out quite a few times by failing to remember this.

For some time I have treated 5800 (and previously 6000) as a significant support for the FTSE 100. After falling below 5600 it recovered to close yesterday (4th) at 5883.30. Today its closing level - 5906.18 – coincides with two significant features: not only the 50 dma, but also at the top of a well-established down trend from June – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Then there’s the 200 dma, usually regarded as significant as support or resistance. I have a question about this. It is still falling so steeply, in contrast to its usual smoother line (e.g. as before the precipitous fall earlier this year), that I wonder whether it will be easier to breach if there’s upward impetus from a rise in the FTSE above the 50 dma and, importantly, above and so out of the downtrend.

Scrolling down the ISF.L charts, proxy for the FTSE 100, shows the FTSE on a weekly and daily basis: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

For my purposes (observing from the sidelines) I wonder whether the FTSE will pause tomorrow Friday 6th for thought/consolidation. With the downtrend and the 50 dma converging with the FTSE just below the 200 dma, this would be a logical approach. Or does the FTSE (and do other markets) have momentum for a continuation of the recent recovery?

But I’m keeping in mind that all of this is short term, as illustrated by the three year chart – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#354982

Postby Jonetc15 » November 9th, 2020, 7:40 pm

Out of the blue – news of a vaccine

While the good news about a coronavirus vaccine was always a possibility, it came today out of the blue and the markets rose exceptionally strongly. By contrast, Biden’s election victory or otherwise was a ‘known unknown’ which has now been resolved. But TA tells us the context of today’s reaction.

The FTSE 100, in line with other stocks worldwide, closed up 4.67% at 6186.29 (having hit an intra-day high at 6258.31). Before the vaccine announcement it had (i) risen well above the 50 dma; (ii) broken out of the downtrend, and (iii) approached the 6000 level. It is now in the 6000-6300 and/or 6000/6500 ranges. And it has risen sharply through the 200 dma, which, if today’s action is sustained, will probably become a support level – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

The Dow Jones is (as at 7.23 pm) up 4.74%. – see: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU and note how it has bounced off the 200 dma and shot up way above the 50 dma.

For me one question is whether FTSE hold above the 200 dma. The other question is whether the FTSE is here to stay in a trading range above 6000. And, of course, DYOR/E&OE.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#357908

Postby Jonetc15 » November 18th, 2020, 8:11 pm

Double-crossing

There are two interesting signals – the ‘dead cross’ and the ‘golden cross’. As I understand it (and please remember that I’m very much an amateur when it comes to TA), the indicators have to be treated with caution because they lag the up-to-date price. Taking the three daily moving averages (dmas) that I’ve been using, a ‘dead’ cross appears when the 20 dma breaks below the 50 dma, and then the 50 dma breaks below the 200 dma. Conversely, with a ‘golden’ cross the 20 dma breaks up through the 50 dma, which in turn breaks up through the 200 dma.

At the end of March 2020 the 50 dma broke down through the 200 dma just as the precipitous fall of the FTSE 100 was happening. It was arguably too late to catch the first phase of the fall – see the 20, 50 and 200 dmas on the 1 year chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 But now there seems to be a strong case for saying that a golden cross is almost bound to appear shortly.

This is clearer if we look at the far shorter 14, 24 and 40 dmas on the same I year chart; a golden cross appears to have been almost completed – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 (I believe that traders use far shorter dmas.I’ll be very grateful for any comments correcting and/or rejecting anything that I write.)

The FTSE 100 has risen past the 6300 mark, closing today (Thursday 18th) at 6385.24, but it seems to be slightly reluctant to rise through the 6400 mark, which is not far short of the high of 6,484.30 last June. It may well need a period of consolidation, but IMHO (and, as usual, DYOR, E&OE) a Brexit agreement could possibly trigger a further rise in market, with investors looking 18 months ahead after (we hope) successful mass vaccinations against Covid and (again, we hope) there has been an eventual transition from the Trump to the Biden presidency. I venture to suggest that there’s the possibility of some sort of Santa rally ahead. That’s not a forecast or prediction, merely a possible scenario. National and international events could well and truly wreck it, testing the 5800-6000 support level severely.

One more point - upside resistance. Historically there’s the low of 6600 in December 2018/January 2019. Will this be a possible resistance, being the bottom of a major trading range from July 2016? See: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Please don’t take any of this seriously. I don’t want anyone to think that I know what I’m talking about (thinking aloud, per my OP), so I’ll probably take a break from posting and wait to see what happens. It really would help if others could critically comment.

Jon
P.S. Please remember that most of the charts on this thread are updated during trading hours. So if you are looking at a previous post please check the date at the bottom of the chart.

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#358386

Postby Jonetc15 » November 20th, 2020, 12:19 pm

P.S. A correction - "closing today (Thursday 18th) at 6385.24" should of course read "closing today (Wednesday 18th) at 6385.24

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#364168

Postby Jonetc15 » December 8th, 2020, 5:57 pm

This is how I see it, solely for my own purposes (i.e. DYOR, E&OE etc as always, per previous posts ad nauseam).

From a purely TA point of view there is a cluster of bullish indicators:

*The FTSE 100 has broken up through a major down trend
*It has also broken above 200 dma
*A golden cross (20, 50 dmas up through 200 dma) should shortly occur
*At 6550.23 at Friday’s close the FTSE 100 broke above its June high of 6484.30 and today (Tuesday 8th) closed at 6558.82.

For the above see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

*The ISF.L proxy P & F for the FTSE 100 appears to be bullish (but I could be wrong) - see:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

But of course the fundamental issue is BREXIT. Naturally I haven’t a clue how the market will react to the outcome of the current negotiations. BREXIT and Covid-19 show the obvious limitations of TA, which tells us how we got to where we are now and looks at possibilities and probabilities, but not predictions.

I really and truly would appreciate comments - and especially corrections - on any part or on all of the above. It's a bit lonely without any debate.

Jon

GoSeigen
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4349
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:14 pm
Has thanked: 1590 times
Been thanked: 1579 times

Re: Where are we now

#364212

Postby GoSeigen » December 8th, 2020, 7:52 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:I really and truly would appreciate comments - and especially corrections - on any part or on all of the above. It's a bit lonely without any debate.

Jon


The prolix DiamondEcho chased away regular posters.

The FTSE chart is short-term bullish but in a long-term consolidation, hasn't broken out to new highs yet. That is probably the major test and may take time to play out. I have been taking a bit of profit/adjusting allocation after recent rises, but still have a leveraged long position overall.

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#365101

Postby Jonetc15 » December 11th, 2020, 12:44 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:I really and truly would appreciate comments - and especially corrections - on any part or on all of the above. It's a bit lonely without any debate.

Jon


The prolix DiamondEcho chased away regular posters.

The FTSE chart is short-term bullish but in a long-term consolidation, hasn't broken out to new highs yet. That is probably the major test and may take time to play out. I have been taking a bit of profit/adjusting allocation after recent rises, but still have a leveraged long position overall.



As for possible upside resistance, the low of 6600 in December 2018/January 2019 is being tested, currently (12.40 pm) down 0.93% at 6538.17. It's the bottom of a major trading range from July 2016. See: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

That range allowed for BREXIT as a central issue, but of course excluded Covid-19 and its global disruption.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#368162

Postby Jonetc15 » December 20th, 2020, 8:39 pm

BREXIT and Covid

Here is a FTSE 100 three-year daily chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Another perspective is the FTSE five-year weekly chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Just in case anyone's thinking about it, here's Gold: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold

And here's GBP/USD: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GBPUSD

Consistent? Of course not. One of the messiest moments for many years. IMHO. And DYOR.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#380710

Postby Jonetc15 » January 25th, 2021, 7:58 pm

Just a quick note to say that I'm concerned about what I feel is the market's apparent lack of scope for upside.

The ISF.L p&f chart is described as "High Pole Warning" as of today - scroll down through https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L (See too a definition at https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... Warning%22: "The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure.") E&OE, DYOR etc etc.

Please remember that the charts on this thread are constantly updated so that the comments now don't match the updates.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#381514

Postby Jonetc15 » January 28th, 2021, 12:35 pm

Some charts for easy reference, automatically updated: FTSE 100, ISF.L, GBP/USD, Dow Jones, S & P 500, Gold

BigCharts

FTSE 100
One year:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Three years:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Five years:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

Other - Stockcharts

ISF.L (proxy for FTSE 100) Point & Figure:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

ISF.L (proxy for FTSE 100) - Daily, Weekly and Point & Figure views:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

GBP to USD:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GBPUSD

Dow Jones ($INDU):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

S & P 500 ($SPX):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX

Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#382542

Postby Jonetc15 » January 31st, 2021, 7:49 pm

The 50 and 200 DMAs are particularly significant support (or resistance) levels. So far I have used simple daily/weekly moving averages. But it’s interesting to look at a chart of the FTSE 100 using exponential moving averages.

Here is one of several possible websites where the difference is explained: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ulated.asp
The exponential moving average (EMA) is a technical chart indicator that tracks the price of an investment (like a stock or commodity) over time. The EMA is a type of weighted moving average (WMA) that gives more weighting or importance to recent price data. Like the simple moving average, the exponential moving average is used to see price trends over time, and watching several EMAs at the same time is easy to do with moving average ribbons.”

Here are the 50 and 200 dmas, with the FTSE 100 having broken down through the 50 dma:

Simple MAs – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The 200 dma is below 6200. The RSU and the MACD have both turned down. But there’s breathing space before the FTSE tests the 200 dma.

Exponential MAs – see: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The 200 dma is only just below 6400. The FTSE 100 is hovering just above it. The RSU and the MACD have both tgurned down. The FTSE needs to find immediate solid buying to avoid breaking below the 200 dma/ema.

In other words, tomorrow is going to be interesting… (Remember, however, to scroll to the bottom of the charts onwards, because they will be updated and you’ll need to refer to the date – 1 February – to see the relevance of my comments . As to which I’m an amateur, so DYOR, E&OE as ever.)

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Where are we now

#388523

Postby Jonetc15 » February 21st, 2021, 7:46 pm

The FTSE 100 is above both the one year exponential and simple 50 and 200 d.m.a.s: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 and https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

So it’s arguable that immediately before the Prime Minister tomorrow announces the way ahead there is technical support for the FTSE 100.

Until the last 10 days or so, when there was a spike upwards, there was the possibility of a head and shoulders forming, per the three-year chart: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11. That chart also shows that the FTSE 100 is in the area of the 6600-6800 lows in December 2018/January 2019. So there could be overhead resistance.

No - I haven’t a clue as to what will happen next at a time when there is so much macro-economic and political uncertainty. Yet again, we seem to be at new crossroads. (This post hardly merits the usual disclaimer DYOR - not that others did; I was just being cautious.)

Jon


Return to “Technical Analysis”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests