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Where are we now

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Dod101
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Re: Where are we now

#325806

Postby Dod101 » July 13th, 2020, 12:51 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............


jonetc15 was writing about the FTSE: I don't think 7-10% is "missing a great rally". Should we really believe the FTSE is flat from here or going down? If so, why (noting which board we are on)?


Well it may not be a great rally and if the FTSE is only up by 7/10% since 28 March I am pleased that I do not buy trackers because I am up by a good 15% in that time. Where is it going from here? Not the slightest idea and really I do not care very much. I seem to be doing |OK and that is what matters.

Dod

GoSeigen
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Re: Where are we now

#325822

Postby GoSeigen » July 13th, 2020, 2:25 pm

Dod101 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............


jonetc15 was writing about the FTSE: I don't think 7-10% is "missing a great rally". Should we really believe the FTSE is flat from here or going down? If so, why (noting which board we are on)?


Well it may not be a great rally and if the FTSE is only up by 7/10% since 28 March I am pleased that I do not buy trackers because I am up by a good 15% in that time. Where is it going from here? Not the slightest idea and really I do not care very much. I seem to be doing |OK and that is what matters.

Dod


Well if you don't care very much then maybe take your criticisms somewhere else. Typical hindsight merchant, can't tell Jon anything about the outlook now but quite happy to come around a few weeks later to criticise him and boast about what a wonderful investor you've been!


GS

Dod101
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Re: Where are we now

#325825

Postby Dod101 » July 13th, 2020, 2:42 pm

I
GoSeigen wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
jonetc15 was writing about the FTSE: I don't think 7-10% is "missing a great rally". Should we really believe the FTSE is flat from here or going down? If so, why (noting which board we are on)?


Well it may not be a great rally and if the FTSE is only up by 7/10% since 28 March I am pleased that I do not buy trackers because I am up by a good 15% in that time. Where is it going from here? Not the slightest idea and really I do not care very much. I seem to be doing |OK and that is what matters.

Dod


Well if you don't care very much then maybe take your criticisms somewhere else. Typical hindsight merchant, can't tell Jon anything about the outlook now but quite happy to come around a few weeks later to criticise him and boast about what a wonderful investor you've been!


I do not know what is bugging you but I suggest that you are a bit more circumspect with your comments in future. I am no boaster about investor prowess.

Dod

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Re: Where are we now

#325880

Postby Jonetc15 » July 13th, 2020, 7:27 pm

Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............

Dod



Fair comment, Dod, except that (in the real world...) years ago I bought the iShares S & P 500 (thanks Odysseus2000 on TMF), and use a couple of investment trusts for global purposes. I feel that the FTSE 100 is or will at some time be undervalued. But my main purpose has been to try to generate a discussion, and the FTSE 100 seemed to be an obvious choice because everyone would be familiar with it.


Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#325882

Postby Jonetc15 » July 13th, 2020, 7:32 pm

Lootman wrote:
Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world.

I have often thought that tacticians and technicians tend to be bearish because to them every bet is a binary one. Whereas in practice markets go up 2/3 or more of the time.

I do not trash TA and use it in certain limited ways. But back when i worked in the markets the TA guys were far from the highest paid, which might tell you something. They did get away with being the worst dressed, however :D


At my advanced age my caution tries to keep me out of too much trouble. I’ve never made an investment decision on the basis of TA alone. I think that it is a very useful tool to supplement fundamental analysis. And perhaps following TA is a way of seeing how professionals use algorithms and automatic trading.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#325883

Postby Lootman » July 13th, 2020, 7:34 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Dod101 wrote:And meanwhile, jonetc15 has missed a great rally. I appreciate that charts can tell us stuff but meanwhile, back in the real world..............

jonetc15 was writing about the FTSE: I don't think 7-10% is "missing a great rally". Should we really believe the FTSE is flat from here or going down? If so, why (noting which board we are on)?

Losing 7% to 10% is not the end of the world. But it is the return that the market generally gives you in an average year. So it would be ideal not to miss that.

As a more academic point, I do not personally believe that the use of TA means that you ignore fundamentals. So for instance i might decide that a particular security is attractive based on fundamentals, and then use TA to decide at what price point to get in and out. After all, options trading relies on TA and charts a lot but you still need some kind of overall view on the underlying to decide how to structure your bet.

So I am at least partially in Dod's camp if what he is saying is that TA may not tell you what to buy/sell so much as when to buy/sell and at what price levels.

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#325884

Postby Jonetc15 » July 13th, 2020, 7:35 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:First of all a special plea. Please can someone very kindly provide a link to a P&F chart of the FTSE 100. This would massively help my thinking.


This should be good enough:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L

GS



Many thanks for this link, GS. It may help others if I say that I clicked on the SharpChart menu at the top of the page and selected ‘Point & Figure’ and then entered the name ISF.L. I’ll ponder the result…

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#325885

Postby Itsallaguess » July 13th, 2020, 7:38 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
This should be good enough:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L


It may help others if I say that I clicked on the SharpChart menu at the top of the page and selected ‘Point & Figure’ and then entered the name ISF.L.


Hi Jon,

If that's the case, then this URL will take you straight to the 'Point & Figure' chart without having to use those extra steps -

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Where are we now

#325890

Postby GoSeigen » July 13th, 2020, 8:17 pm

:D
Itsallaguess wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
This should be good enough:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ISF.L


It may help others if I say that I clicked on the SharpChart menu at the top of the page and selected ‘Point & Figure’ and then entered the name ISF.L.


Hi Jon,

If that's the case, then this URL will take you straight to the 'Point & Figure' chart without having to use those extra steps -

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

Or even easier, P&F is right on the page I originally linked to, just scroll down. :D

GS

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Re: Where are we now

#326041

Postby Jonetc15 » July 14th, 2020, 12:45 pm

GoSeigen wrote::D
Itsallaguess wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:


It may help others if I say that I clicked on the SharpChart menu at the top of the page and selected ‘Point & Figure’ and then entered the name ISF.L.


Hi Jon,

If that's the case, then this URL will take you straight to the 'Point & Figure' chart without having to use those extra steps -

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=ISF.L,P

Or even easier, P&F is right on the page I originally linked to, just scroll down. :D

GS


Thanks Itsallaguess for your help, and to GS for genially pointing out that I had failed to notice the blinding obvious!

ATB
Jon

Itsallaguess
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Re: Where are we now

#326243

Postby Itsallaguess » July 15th, 2020, 8:41 am

One of the problems I'd have with trying to use technical analysis during this type of market is that we're only really one test-tube result away from a major positive intervention in that market, and I'm really not sure that charts will help to predict when that might arise...

I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led -

Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine led patients to produce antibodies that can neutralize the novel coronavirus that causes the disease, though it caused minor side effects in many patients, according to the first published data from an early-stage trial of the experimental shot. (July 14, 2020)

...

“The hallmark of a vaccine is one that can actually mimic natural infection and induce the kind of response that you would get with natural infection. And it looks like, at least in this limited, small number of individuals, that is exactly what’s happening,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NIH branch that conducted the trial. “The data really look quite good,” he added. “There were no serious adverse events.”


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Where are we now

#326286

Postby bluedonkey » July 15th, 2020, 11:15 am

The fastest time to develop a vaccine was for measles. It took 4 years. This time could be different, perhaps.

Jonetc15
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Re: Where are we now

#326568

Postby Jonetc15 » July 16th, 2020, 11:43 am

Itsallaguess wrote:One of the problems I'd have with trying to use technical analysis during this type of market is that we're only really one test-tube result away from a major positive intervention in that market, and I'm really not sure that charts will help to predict when that might arise...

I think this type of market is going to be news-led (positive and/or negative), and not primarily chart led -

Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine led patients to produce antibodies that can neutralize the novel coronavirus that causes the disease, though it caused minor side effects in many patients, according to the first published data from an early-stage trial of the experimental shot. (July 14, 2020)

...

“The hallmark of a vaccine is one that can actually mimic natural infection and induce the kind of response that you would get with natural infection. And it looks like, at least in this limited, small number of individuals, that is exactly what’s happening,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NIH branch that conducted the trial. “The data really look quite good,” he added. “There were no serious adverse events.”


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess



Thanks Itsallaguess. I entirely agree and made this point – briefly – a couple of times:

I always look at fundamentals as well as the charts, and the latter have to be treated with considerable caution as unforeseen (‘Black Swan’/’unknown unknowns’) events hit individual shares and indices/markets” (14 May, 308610).

All of this ignores the torrent of national and global events. At the moment TA charts only tell me where we are and how we got there. All that the simple charts tell me for my purposes is to continue to sit tight and observe from the sidelines” (28 June, 322308).

To give one specific example, when it comes to company results and/or specifically exploration companies’ successes and failures TA has a very restricted relevance.

All the best

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#329683

Postby Jonetc15 » July 30th, 2020, 12:58 pm

Things are a bit critical. The FTSE 100 continues to trade (6023 at 12.45 pm, 15 minute lag) below the 50 daily moving average – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The RSI is falling, and the MACD looks like turning negative.

The FTSE 100 is at the bottom of the range 6000-6500 and the (proxy ISF.L) P&F chart doesn’t look too positive – see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20] Could buyers be tempted?

Interesting to hear what other folk think. I’m not thinking of buying at the moment but still watching. DYOR and E&OE, because all that I can offer are tentative comments.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#329709

Postby GoSeigen » July 30th, 2020, 1:54 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:Things are a bit critical. The FTSE 100 continues to trade (6023 at 12.45 pm, 15 minute lag) below the 50 daily moving average – see https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com 50DMA chart The RSI is falling, and the MACD looks like turning negative.

The FTSE 100 is at the bottom of the range 6000-6500 and the (proxy ISF.L) P&F chart doesn’t look too positive – see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/ P&F chart Could buyers be tempted?

Interesting to hear what other folk think. I’m not thinking of buying at the moment but still watching. DYOR and E&OE, because all that I can offer are tentative comments.


Fixed links.


GS

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Re: Where are we now

#329718

Postby Jonetc15 » July 30th, 2020, 2:33 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:Things are a bit critical....rsqb;]


Fixed links.

GS


Very many thanks GS. I did in fact hope that I had solved this and that you wouldn’t have to come to my rescue yet again. I’ll possibly ask about the problem and how to solve it on another suitable board.

All the very best
Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#329813

Postby GoSeigen » July 30th, 2020, 6:29 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:Things are a bit critical....rsqb;]


Fixed links.

GS


Very many thanks GS. I did in fact hope that I had solved this and that you wouldn’t have to come to my rescue yet again. I’ll possibly ask about the problem and how to solve it on another suitable board.

All the very best
Jon


The easiest way is to preview your post and then if the links don't work, use a link shortening service like http://bit.ly

GS
[EDIT: Don't use link shortening excessively though -- the obfuscation of the address can be annoying...]

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Re: Where are we now

#329825

Postby Jonetc15 » July 30th, 2020, 8:11 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Fixed links.

GS
.....The easiest way is to preview your post and then if the links don't work, use a link shortening service like http://bit.ly

GS
[EDIT: Don't use link shortening excessively though -- the obfuscation of the address can be annoying...]



Thanks again GS, but I’m a bit puzzled, because I do use Preview and click on each link for the charts to check before submitting. Obviously I’m getting something wrong and I really appreciate your helpful advice.

Meanwhile it will be very interesting indeed to see whether tomorrow (31st) the markets recover their collective nerve. Closing today below 6000 is interesting...

ATB

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#335334

Postby Jonetc15 » August 23rd, 2020, 9:15 pm

The FTSE 100 is at the 6000 support, below the 50 dma and also below the 200 dma. Not for the first time I wonder whether this level will tempt potential buyers back into the market, or whether the weight of overhead resistance (and monumental domestic and global uncertainty) will lead to sellers finally prevailing, and if so how far the market(s) will fall in possibly thin trading.

Jon

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Re: Where are we now

#337985

Postby Jonetc15 » September 3rd, 2020, 8:22 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:The FTSE 100 is at the 6000 support, below the 50 dma and also below the 200 dma. Not for the first time I wonder whether this level will tempt potential buyers back into the market, or whether the weight of overhead resistance (and monumental domestic and global uncertainty) will lead to sellers finally prevailing, and if so how far the market(s) will fall in possibly thin trading.

Jon


Here is an update (03.09.2020), telling us that things aren’t looking too great:

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11 The (very short-term) 20 dma is below the 50 dma, below the 200 dma. The RSI has turned down. Is the 6000 to 6200 level going to be primary resistance to any serious attempt to move upward?

The five-year chart puts this in context: https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=11

In addition, the P&F pattern on the ISF.L chart (kindly provided previously by GoSeigen as a proxy for the FTSE 100) is described as ‘Double Bottom Breakdown on 01-Sep-2020' - please see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf. ... PWTBDANRNO

Why should anyone want to buy the FTSE 100? On an optimistic view that things can only get better over the next 18 months? Will the FTSE 100 quickly recover into the trading range of 6000-6500? As always, DYOR and E&OE.

Jon


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