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Private Equity Upside

Closed-end funds and OEICs
toofast2live
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Re: Private Equity Upside

#443640

Postby toofast2live » September 19th, 2021, 5:41 pm

3.45%! Modest? Hardly. Several years of BS interest in one day.

I only wish I had a “modest” holding ;)

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#444622

Postby SKYSHIP » September 23rd, 2021, 8:47 am

JPEL Private Equity (JPEL) – in wind-down - possible 25% gain within a year

On 23rd July JPEL made a pretty momentous announcement, at least for JPEL shareholders:
===============================
JPEL is pleased to announce the realisation of its investment in the Company's largest portfolio company, Swania International SA ("Swania").

The realisation results in an investment return of approximately 3.9x and an IRR of approximately 25.8% for JPEL.(1) As part of the transaction, JPEL expects to receive gross proceeds of approximately US$78 million, representing approximately 70% of JPEL's overall market capitalisation as of 22 July 2021 and an approximate 19% uplift to the current carrying value at 31 May 2021. At 31 May 2021, Swania represented 47.7% of JPEL's private equity portfolio value.

Upon receipt of the net proceeds relating to the sale of Swania, the Board anticipates conducting its ninth mandatory redemption to shareholders as soon as practicable.
================================

Less than 2 weeks later, the redemption arrived:
# JPEL WILL RETURN $85 MILLION TO SHAREHOLDERS
# REDEMPTION DATE 12 August 2021
# REDEMPTION REPRESENTS 51.5% OF US$ EQUITY SHAREHOLDER NET ASSET VALUE AT 30 JUNE
# REDEMPTION @ NAV level of $2.00

After the redemption the company has just 40,017,883 shares in issue.

This is a trust managed by the giant JP Morgan, yet after 3yrs of wind-down the trust now has a MCap of just £46m at 115p (158c).

The question now has to be – where do we go from here. Frankly the trust is now too small and irrelevant to continue. A trade sale within the PE sector has to be the most likely outcome – sell the portfolio, make a final redemption and wind-up.

We may get some clarity with the Annual Report statement due in c2weeks – 8th October last year.

The obvious investment case has to be – almost Zero risk with a now widely diversified portfolio of small PE plays, split practically equally between direct investments & PE funds:

https://www.jpelonline.com/~/media/File ... review.pdf

Zero Risk; but serious short-term upside of c25%, OK perhaps only 20% if the portfolio has to be sold at a discount.

There is one catch – liquidity. You have to be patient and buy when available; also can only be phone traded, consistently no offer online.
One last thing. Quoted in US$, but UK listed; so no FX charges.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#448551

Postby SKYSHIP » October 7th, 2021, 2:16 pm

The 5% pullback in PIN after recently achieving the 3000p target, does now represent a good entry point again as at 2845p the discount is up to 26.7%. This whilst PIN has also started buybacks, which should help underwrite current levels.

I've posted the chart on ADVFN's PE thread:

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=26570589

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#449875

Postby UncleEbenezer » October 13th, 2021, 4:43 pm

Dunedin Enterprise's turn today. Partial realisation of GPS, for an uplift of 44p/share.

Share price is up by just one third of that on the day.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 000009270O

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#451232

Postby SKYSHIP » October 19th, 2021, 10:54 am

ICGT – The annoying thing with ICGT is the quarterly rather than monthly NAV declaration.

At the July declaration of 1523p the discount at 1145p is a peer high of 24.6%. This versus 23.7% for HVPE on their September declaration; and on their August declarations – NBPE at 22.4%; PIN at 22.5% & SLPE at 21.1%.

Those 4 peers declared an average NAV gain of 5.4% in August; and the only September declaration thus far is HVPE at 2%.

So, it might be fairly safe to assume that the declarable NAV for ICGT may well be North of 1600p; and at that level the discount rises to 28.4%!

Coupling that with the fact that ICGT looks anomalously oversold after a recent pullback from the 1200p level; and is trading on the 38.2% FIB support level; I believe they warrant a BUY at the current level.

I have done so at an average of 1145p.

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=26570589

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#452821

Postby SKYSHIP » October 25th, 2021, 8:15 am

I see that since my 20th July post, PIN unsurprisingly did hit £30; and NBPE now looking at £17.

Both trusts announced their September stats last Friday:

# NBPE: + 4.8% (+35.9% YTD)

# PIN: + 2.0% (+28.0% YTD).....though admittedly most of that Sept. gain was Forex!

Pretty dramatic performances, yet they languish on respectively 24.0% & 25.0% discounts!

Clearly both are undervalued and should continue their rises...

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#453664

Postby kempiejon » October 27th, 2021, 5:40 pm

SKYSHIP wrote:The 5% pullback in PIN after recently achieving the 3000p target, does now represent a good entry point again as at 2845p the discount is up to 26.7%. This whilst PIN has also started buybacks, which should help underwrite current levels.

SKYSHIP

Thanks for PIN I must have seen your post 7th October below and soon after bought so a tasty 10% in 2 weeks. I hope there's further to come but when would you cash in 20% plus discount for a while, are we at about 12 month average discount just now. Do you reckon that gap aught to close below 20%? Ta.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#454757

Postby kempiejon » November 1st, 2021, 11:27 am

Pantheon International PIN corporate action.

Something fishy in my holding this morning.

Looks OK now and I found details here https://www.piplc.com/
PIP’s 1 for 10 share split takes effect from 1 November 2021
The Company’s issued share capital has multiplied by ten, but each shareholder retains the same proportion of voting rights and economic interest in PIP as before.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#454821

Postby SKYSHIP » November 1st, 2021, 1:46 pm

PIN - ex today's 10:1 split they now trade @ 315p - the equivalent of 3150p

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#456065

Postby SKYSHIP » November 6th, 2021, 1:53 pm

On 25th October I pointed out above just what good value was available in NBPE (1690p) & PIN (294p).

Both trusts have enjoyed great gains over the past few days - respectively 6.8% & 9.9%.

I have now banked those gains. Not because of any change in view as to their fundamental value; but because of a personal wish to up liquidity.

Like many others I am fearful of one of those recurring market shakeouts. There are after all so many bearish factors lurking in full view; but thus far failing to pounce. Indeed, this past week's breakout through the 7220 resistance, looks encouraging for further gains to the pre-Covid top formation in the 7700 region.

Nevertheless, shakeouts can hit overnight, or erode over a few months as per H2'18 with its 15% decline. It is that sort of action I am concerned about, especially as gains YTD have been so much better than expected; and I am reluctant to give them back!

So, for the time-being, I've gone to 25% cash. But if my past is anything to go by; I'll find a few bargains and will be back fully invested in a week....

HeyHo - the dichotomy in this game. Play the Momentum or be the contrarian...

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#465708

Postby SKYSHIP » December 14th, 2021, 11:59 am

Yet another fantastic monthly NAV performance by NBPE. November UP 3%; this combined with the stronger $ takes the NAV up to 2369p, so at the offer price of 1835p the discount shoots back up to 22.5%. Clearly under-valued yet again, sp not keeping up with events.

They had a little run-up at the open on small PI purchases (inc. me!); but would expect a second move over the next few days. Even at 1900 they would still be on a far higher discount than peers - 19.8%. These are headed to 2000p IMO.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/londo ... i/86798202

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#470495

Postby Coobster » January 5th, 2022, 2:37 pm

Thanks Skyship for your tips on Private Equity IT's.

I have some small holdings in HgCapital (HGT) and Pantheon International (PIN) and today I was going to purchase a small stake in NB Private Equity (NBPE) . I was waiting for the increase in SP to stop but the price kept going up.
I use IWEB for our ISA's (mine and my wife's ) but unfortunately IWEB don't allow you to purchase shares in NBPE as this stock isn't available to retail investors, which is a shame.
I'll have another look on AIC to see if there are other candidates. Any other suggestions welcomed. I might just top up PIN.
According to the linked Daily Mail article Harbourvest is a Fund of Funds IT which doesn't appeal.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#470501

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 5th, 2022, 2:46 pm

Coobster wrote:According to the linked Daily Mail article Harbourvest is a Fund of Funds IT which doesn't appeal.

As a rule I'd agree: a fund of funds seems pointless.

In the case of PE, it may be a little different. The funds it invests in may not themselves be available to retail investors. If you want that sector but don't have a million stake to invest, the way in is through a fund of funds.

Of course, it still has the drawbacks: an extra layer of charges, less transparency, more scope for things to go bad.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#485132

Postby UncleEbenezer » March 8th, 2022, 12:36 pm

Some sharp falls in the sector, and discounts looking rather juicy - though that could of course be an artifact of published NAVs lagging. SLPE is now showing in the red in my ISA, while Pantheon and to a lesser extent Princess have also pulled back.

A buying opportunity?

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#487271

Postby UncleEbenezer » March 18th, 2022, 1:36 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:Some sharp falls in the sector, and discounts looking rather juicy - though that could of course be an artifact of published NAVs lagging. SLPE is now showing in the red in my ISA, while Pantheon and to a lesser extent Princess have also pulled back.

A buying opportunity?

Looks like it was exactly that, as the sector has already substantially bounced back.

Why didn't I have the courage of my convictions?

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#499937

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 11th, 2022, 7:41 pm

Amid a sea of red through the portfolio, a beacon of Good News as DNE continues to rise. Quarterly report to end-March in RNS https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 326321392L , and I note today's share price has risen even a little further since the end of March. Once again, I wish DNE was a bigger part of my portfolio.

Though I note the sector as a whole hasn't escaped gravity.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#542528

Postby UncleEbenezer » October 30th, 2022, 11:39 pm

Most of the sector is now looking bombed out, having discounts in the 30-50% range on current AIC figures. A few honorable exceptions, including DNE whose rise continues as it winds gradually down: it was with a view to topping up ahead of their tender offer that I looked at AIC!

So who's bargain-hunting the sector today?

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#542550

Postby 77ss » October 31st, 2022, 7:48 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:Most of the sector is now looking bombed out, having discounts in the 30-50% range on current AIC figures. A few honorable exceptions, including DNE whose rise continues as it winds gradually down: it was with a view to topping up ahead of their tender offer that I looked at AIC!

So who's bargain-hunting the sector today?


Bargain hunting? Not really, but I get enough dividends in my ISA this month to make a top up of something worthwhile.

APEO, at a discount of 43.5%, is currently the front runner, competing with RIO - should the miner's SP fall much more.

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#542674

Postby SKYSHIP » October 31st, 2022, 3:20 pm

Well, IMO the sector has been stupidly oversold and there are now some great opportunities in the better managed PEITs.

The 3 standout buys are the ones on anomalously high NAV discounts:

# ICGT @ 1030p for a 44.7% discount

# HVPE @ 2175p for a 48.5% discount

# PIN @ 253p for a 48.6% discount

These discount levels are patently absurd when most of the sector is still revealing underlying NAV growth; admittedly
in some cases Forex assisted.

Brokers Stifel have just come out with a note recommending bargain hunting; as revealed in the Citywire article - link below:

Private equity: 40% discounts will provoke bids, says Stifel

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-i ... l/a2400959

A good time to play for a bounce...

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Re: Private Equity Upside

#542830

Postby 88V8 » November 1st, 2022, 10:02 am

SKYSHIP wrote:...anomalously high NAV discounts:

Haven't looked into these specifically, but in general what do you think about the NAVs, given they often hold a good deal of unlisted stuff?

V8


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