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Scottish Mortgage heading for where

Closed-end funds and OEICs
Newroad
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#470942

Postby Newroad » January 6th, 2022, 7:08 pm

FYI for those interested.

Here is the data from the most recent peak to the present (source: Investing.com)

Image

I have no skin in the game (I don't and have never held SMT). Conversely, I have a friend who started putting in (I think) £30 a month into it an eternity ago, over thirty years I'm fairly sure and maybe close to forty, making a small fortune on the back of it.

Regards, Newroad

TUK020
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474119

Postby TUK020 » January 18th, 2022, 3:26 pm

??
Buying opportunity?

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474128

Postby Dod101 » January 18th, 2022, 3:48 pm

TUK020 wrote:??
Buying opportunity?


Now £11.16. Could be but it depends on your time frame. That is only down about 21% from its peak. Could go down quite a bit yet.
If I were you and you are wanting to buy I would be looking for say £10. This is a volatile share and could be at £10 by this time next week.....or tomorrow afternoon, but I think down is more likely than up at the moment.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474131

Postby scrumpyjack » January 18th, 2022, 4:05 pm

Once again it is important to bear in mind that the SMT share price reflects the net asset value, being the market value of their investments, plus or minus the premium/discount. Usually they sell at a 3% or so premium to NAV, but at the moment it's a 5% discount. So that change in sentiment on its own is an 8% downward swing. That change in sentiment amplifies the ups and downs of this share.

Personally I wouldn't bother trying to time my buys or sells in this investment trust, but if I were to do so I would keep an eye on the premium/discount and buy when the discount becomes abnormally high - when the market is at the maximum level of pessimism.

The managers always warn their SP can be volatile and performance needs to be considered on at least a 5 year period.

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474134

Postby scrumpyjack » January 18th, 2022, 4:17 pm

Interesting article on a broker's view (always to be taken with a large pinch of salt!)

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news ... +Afternoon

Charlottesquare
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474161

Postby Charlottesquare » January 18th, 2022, 5:20 pm

I am certainly not selling, last time I sold (A family trust) it was because SMT had become too big a proportion of the portfolio, it was initially 1/6th of the funds invested and when it got to the point where it had become 1/3rd I trimmed the holding by half, big mistake, last time I got a statement the remaining holding (31.10.21) it was back at 35% of the total and sporting a 640% gain from original purchase in October 2013.

I liked it so much a few years back I also bought a chunk in my own SIPP and every so often I use some of my dividends to buy a few more.

Apart from some miners/oilies years ago, and my one 10 bagger, one of the best investments I ever made

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474163

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 18th, 2022, 5:30 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Usually they sell at a 3% or so premium to NAV,


Based on whose figures? From what I've seen, they managed the premium (at times when there was one) to avoid going above about 2% by issuing new equity - more than once a week at peak. And AIC shows it at a discount for most of 2021. Looks like about 3 or 4 years at a premium to 16 or 17 at a discount in the past 20 years.

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474166

Postby scrumpyjack » January 18th, 2022, 5:38 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:Usually they sell at a 3% or so premium to NAV,


Based on whose figures? From what I've seen, they managed the premium (at times when there was one) to avoid going above about 2% by issuing new equity - more than once a week at peak. And AIC shows it at a discount for most of 2021. Looks like about 3 or 4 years at a premium to 16 or 17 at a discount in the past 20 years.


According to the article I linked to they have derated from a 6% premium to a 3% discount.

The Baillee Gifford website has a chart of the premium discount over the last 4 years and it is normally a premium of 2.5% or more but swings about.

Newroad
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474192

Postby Newroad » January 18th, 2022, 7:28 pm

Hi Dod.

I'd check your numbers on the degree of the fall (thus far)!

Regards, Newroad

absolutezero
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474211

Postby absolutezero » January 18th, 2022, 8:29 pm

Significantly below (~15%) the 10 month moving average so my (manual) stop loss has triggered.
10 month MA is 1337p and it's now 1118p.
Chris Dillow in the Investors' Chronicle suggests the 10 month MA is a good way of avoiding significant losses due to negative momentum. Problem is it can trigger too frequently so I go another 10% before I click the button.
Gone!

swill453
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474218

Postby swill453 » January 18th, 2022, 8:52 pm

absolutezero wrote:Significantly below (~15%) the 10 month moving average so my (manual) stop loss has triggered.
10 month MA is 1337p and it's now 1118p.
Chris Dillow in the Investors' Chronicle suggests the 10 month MA is a good way of avoiding significant losses due to negative momentum. Problem is it can trigger too frequently so I go another 10% before I click the button.
Gone!

Wow, I'd be more likely to buy than sell right now.

But as usual I'll actually be doing precisely nothing.

Scott.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474220

Postby monabri » January 18th, 2022, 9:17 pm

Newroad wrote:Hi Dod.

I'd check your numbers on the degree of the fall (thus far)!

Regards, Newroad


1543 to 1116p. Approx 28% drop.

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474222

Postby Dod101 » January 18th, 2022, 9:27 pm

Newroad wrote:Hi Dod.

I'd check your numbers on the degree of the fall (thus far)!

Regards, Newroad


monabri has helpfully told us that it hit £15.43. That must have been a very brief peak which I missed. I would not call £15.43 an established peak which I think we ought to be more interested in than a fleeting peak but I am not making excuses.

I only keep records weekly on a Saturday and I have no record on that basis of it being over £15.

Dod

Newroad
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474225

Postby Newroad » January 18th, 2022, 9:35 pm

Hi Dod.

See two posts up from your earlier comment.

Regards, Newroad

PS It might even have been slightly higher - those figures were weekly

monabri
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474226

Postby monabri » January 18th, 2022, 9:38 pm

Recent shareprice data for information. Intraday values may have been higher...(it's only probably relevant if one bought or sold at the recent peak).

Source
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/sto ... mpany-page

Image

vand
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474245

Postby vand » January 18th, 2022, 10:54 pm

I am not a holder of SMT but I have been following it’s fortunes fairly closely.

Firstly, I want to say that I do think SMT are good money managers as they have proven able to beat the market over several cycles, including 2003-2007 where the NAV climbed above its 2000 peak despite it being a difficult period for growth stocks.

That said, I don’t see any reason why they can easily get cut in half. Stocks like Nvidia and Tesla they’ve had the good sense to own and hold through their huge gains, but now it’s difficult defend their price as anything other than grossly inflated and priced such that even best case projections can’t justify.

I can’t bring myself to get excited about a fund that went up so much and where the froth is only just starting to be blown off. They’ve ridden the tech bull/bubble but if the worm is fully turning instead of just having a wiggle then there could be a lot more downside.

Urbandreamer
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474280

Postby Urbandreamer » January 19th, 2022, 7:31 am

vand wrote:They’ve ridden the tech bull/bubble but if the worm is fully turning instead of just having a wiggle then there could be a lot more downside.


Is technology a bubble?
Many were increasingly of the opinion that they'd all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.
D Adams

Seriously SMT is holding a lot of Moderna. There are reasons that the price of that share could collapse. They also hold lots of other tech stuff, which could go up in price. Personally I see tech in general (rather than specific parts) as always on an upward trend. Be it rubber plantations* for tyres used on those new fangled horseless carriages, battery's for the same, computer vision for self driving cars or modern medical miracles.

*The Mortgage in SMT came from mortgages provided to rubber plantations.

vand
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474293

Postby vand » January 19th, 2022, 8:16 am

Urbandreamer wrote:
vand wrote:They’ve ridden the tech bull/bubble but if the worm is fully turning instead of just having a wiggle then there could be a lot more downside.


Is technology a bubble?
Many were increasingly of the opinion that they'd all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.
D Adams

Seriously SMT is holding a lot of Moderna. There are reasons that the price of that share could collapse. They also hold lots of other tech stuff, which could go up in price. Personally I see tech in general (rather than specific parts) as always on an upward trend. Be it rubber plantations* for tyres used on those new fangled horseless carriages, battery's for the same, computer vision for self driving cars or modern medical miracles.

*The Mortgage in SMT came from mortgages provided to rubber plantations.


A lot of the shares look grossly overpriced to me. Look at Nvidia and the semi-conductor sector as a whole.
Nvidia has been around for a while. It's not a new company. They used to make graphic cards that you bung into your PC in the forlorn hope that your game could run above 10fps. I'm not saying they're not a good company, but the market is treating them as if they're the second coming, apparently worth $625bn offt the back of $25bn revenue... I know there's a chip shortage but, c'mon, its ridiculously overrated, imo.
Last edited by vand on January 19th, 2022, 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474294

Postby Dod101 » January 19th, 2022, 8:17 am

Newroad wrote:Hi Dod.

See two posts up from your earlier comment.

Regards, Newroad

PS It might even have been slightly higher - those figures were weekly


Thanks. I can see what has happened. I got a new PC about then and managed to lose my records for the whole of November (and a bit earlier as well). So actually SMT hit well over £15 for most of the month in which case my apologies. So we can take the price as at least 28% down from its peak. Interesting, but I do not think that signals the end for SMT although it could I have no doubt go lower still but who knows? It is volatile though and always has been. I will be doing nothing.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#474416

Postby Urbandreamer » January 19th, 2022, 12:43 pm

vand wrote:They used to make graphic cards that you bung into your PC in the forlorn hope that your game could run above 10fps. I'm not saying they're not a good company, but the market is treating them as if they're the second coming, apparently worth $625bn offt the back of $25bn revenue... I know there's a chip shortage but, c'mon, its ridiculously overrated, imo.


Obviously because you think that they only do graphic accelerators for games.

I think that I did mention self driving cars.

https://www.nvidia.com/en-gb/self-driving-cars/
https://www.nvidia.com/en-gb/self-drivi ... /partners/

Of course that isn't obvious if you don't read the industry technical journals.


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