The Lemon Fool

scrumpyjack wrote:Hargreaves Lansdown have just issued a reasonably fair summary of SMT.

(snip: url removed)

SJ
You may want to edit the url in your posting above that you quoted to remove your client id and all the tracking info in the url, so that you don't let HL know that that when each lemon fool clicks on the url you provided, HL think it's you

For those that don't want to be tracked so much, here's an edited url:
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-may-2021-update

(I was going to post the same article but you beat me to it )
(I have edited your url out in my reply so as not to repeat it)

yorkshirelad1 wrote:

scrumpyjack wrote:Hargreaves Lansdown have just issued a reasonably fair summary of SMT.

(snip: url removed)

SJ
You may want to edit the url in your posting above that you quoted to remove your client id and all the tracking info in the url, so that you don't let HL know that that when each lemon fool clicks on the url you provided, HL think it's you

For those that don't want to be tracked so much, here's an edited url:
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-may-2021-update

(I was going to post the same article but you beat me to it )
(I have edited your url out in my reply so as not to repeat it)

Thanks, although my client number etc isn't in the link, though maybe they will think it is me if someone else clicks! I don't think they quite do justice to James Anderson's thought process but still interesting. What a difference compared to their previous favorite manager Mr Woodford!

scrumpyjack wrote:Thanks, although my client number etc isn't in the link, though maybe they will think it is me if someone else clicks! I don't think they quite do justice to James Anderson's thought process but still interesting. What a difference compared to their previous favorite manager Mr Woodford!

I shudder to think what might happen to a fund manager that becomes a "favourite" of HL: "kiss" and "death" come to mind: I hope not (and have holdings of SMT).

I see that SMT's NAV has now just about got back to its peak. NAV now is 1361p (sp 1321p) and when the sp hit the high of 1415p in mid Feb the NAV was 1369p

Obviously it is now at a small discount whereas then it was a small premium. If NAV continues to rise one could perhaps expect the shares to go back to a premium.

noshow1 was kind enough to thank me for my very first post on this now very long thread. It is quite instructive to read these posts of a year ago and see what has happened to the Scottish Mortgage share price since then.

Dod

"Whats happening at Scottish Mortgage IT?"

Video from BG: https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/whats-happening-at-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust/a1525713

scrumpyjack wrote:I see that SMT's NAV has now just about got back to its peak. NAV now is 1361p (sp 1321p) and when the sp hit the high of 1415p in mid Feb the NAV was 1369p

Obviously it is now at a small discount whereas then it was a small premium. If NAV continues to rise one could perhaps expect the shares to go back to a premium.

Best advice for SMT...
Hold. Sit and do nothing with these shares for 5-10 years.
Nice to see these climbing back - Over 1400p (all time high) by year end ?

Nice to see these climbing back - Over 1400p (all time high) by year end ?

Why so gloomy?

thehaggistrap wrote:

scrumpyjack wrote:I see that SMT's NAV has now just about got back to its peak. NAV now is 1361p (sp 1321p) and when the sp hit the high of 1415p in mid Feb the NAV was 1369p

Obviously it is now at a small discount whereas then it was a small premium. If NAV continues to rise one could perhaps expect the shares to go back to a premium.

Best advice for SMT...
Hold. Sit and do nothing with these shares for 5-10 years.
Nice to see these climbing back - Over 1400p (all time high) by year end ?

5-10 years of SMT at the rate it's performed over the past year is going to play havoc with the lifetime allowance in my SIPP

Exponential growth. £1K that doubles in a year becomes a million after ten years. Though by then a million won't buy you very much.

Hmmm.

Laughton wrote:

Nice to see these climbing back - Over 1400p (all time high) by year end ?

Why so gloomy?

For sure - it might well go higher by year end.
However given last 12 months performance I dont wish to be greedy / accused of ramping

UncleEbenezer wrote:

thehaggistrap wrote:

scrumpyjack wrote:I see that SMT's NAV has now just about got back to its peak. NAV now is 1361p (sp 1321p) and when the sp hit the high of 1415p in mid Feb the NAV was 1369p

Obviously it is now at a small discount whereas then it was a small premium. If NAV continues to rise one could perhaps expect the shares to go back to a premium.

Best advice for SMT...
Hold. Sit and do nothing with these shares for 5-10 years.
Nice to see these climbing back - Over 1400p (all time high) by year end ?

5-10 years of SMT at the rate it's performed over the past year is going to play havoc with the lifetime allowance in my SIPP

Exponential growth. £1K that doubles in a year becomes a million after ten years. Though by then a million won't buy you very much.

Hmmm.

£1,000 doubling every year is still far short of £1 million after ten years, like the grains of rice on a chess board. After 11 years though..............

Anyway I doubt very much that it will do that and it will probably not bother me very much if it does.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:£1,000 doubling every year is still far short of £1 million after ten years, like the grains of rice on a chess board. After 11 years though..............

After 1 year £2,000
After 2 years £4,000
After 3 years £8,000
After 4 years £16,000
After 5 years £32,000
After 6 years £64,000
After 7 yers £128,000
After 8 years £256,000
After 9 years £512,000
After 10 years (more than)

UncleEbenezer wrote: ... a million after ten years

OK I was counting it on my fingers. I am a year out by most calculations, confusing the calculation with visualising grains of rice on a chess board. It is not quite the same.

You could actually argue though that the million plus does not arrive until the beginning of year 11 but that is splitting hairs.

I still doubt very much that it will happen though.

Dod

If the SMT price goes up by a factor of 1000 over the next ten years, what will the rest of the market look like?

Scott.

As UE said, after ten years, not within ten years, so there!

Dod

Dod101 wrote:As UE said, after ten years, not within ten years, so there!

Dod

I even allowed for a platform fee. For example, at H-L's maximum charge of 0.45% - even if they removed the cap - it just tops the million.

swill453 wrote:If the SMT price goes up by a factor of 1000 over the next ten years, what will the rest of the market look like?

It could really happen. Or it could be delayed a while yet. Your question shouldn't be about the rest of the market, but about the pound.

With an investment like Scottish Mortgage (or Bitcoin come to that) how does one determine when to crystallise ones gain? Because as we all know one only makes anything when one sells this sort of investment.

Matchless wrote:With an investment like Scottish Mortgage (or Bitcoin come to that) how does one determine when to crystallise ones gain? Because as we all know one only makes anything when one sells this sort of investment.

I think equating SMT to Bitcoin is fairly insulting to Baillee Gifford! Bitcoin is one very specific 'crypto' asset which has no intrinsic value except on the 'greater fool' theory, whilst SMT is an investment in 90 or so underlying real businesses and BG have a long track record of brilliant selection, and timing, of these investments.

Personally I would not touch Bitcoin and would not describe it as an investment, but chacun a son gout, as they say. Tulips are prettier.

Also I don't agree that you have only made a gain when you sell (or a loss on the same logic). If I made a huge gain on SMT (which I have in fact ) and sell them on monday, but then reinvest back into SMT the next day (or my wife does to avoid the 30 day rule), have I only then made the real gain, even though I am in the same position as if I had not sold them?

Similarly if I held Carillion shares, would the loss only be real when the liquidator declared them as nil value?

Matchless wrote:With an investment like Scottish Mortgage (or Bitcoin come to that) how does one determine when to crystallise ones gain? Because as we all know one only makes anything when one sells this sort of investment.

I am somewhere in the middle between your sentiment and Srumpyjack's. I crystallised a gain several times last year as the price kept rising and my last sale was at £14.10 in February this year. I still hold more in SMT now than in January 2020, so I tend to sell to catch the rises. As it happens I would of course have been better just to have held them all but how do we know? My policy is to invest in the likes of SMT and then as gains arise sell and buy something else, usually with a decent dividend. That does two things, gives me a bit more income and a bit more diversification. I do not necessarily buy something new, it might just be a top up of one or two existing holdings.

Dod

Matchless wrote: Because as we all know one only makes anything when one sells this sort of investment.

Count me out of that "we", as my view is that is complete nonsense, which also applies to losses.