The fund's duration assets, through inflation-linked government bonds and gold exposure, delivered positive contributions as yields fell. On the negative side of the ledger, the fund's exposure to commodity assets detracted from performance as uncertainty over the health of the global economy rose. Given the stability of the portfolio through these rapidly shifting sands, we resisted the temptation to make major changes. However, we did increase yen exposure to c 15% to enhance its role as a key protective asset in the portfolio's armoury.
There appears to be a growing dichotomy between the interpretation of recent events by bond and commodity markets compared to equities. The former are more than hinting that economic conditions are soon to deteriorate, whilst the latter is basking in another duration led rally catalysed by the fall in bond yields. We do not believe that both views can be held simultaneously for long. Our issue with the equity market's muscle memory is that given policymaker's battle with persistent inflation, you cannot have falling rates without a recession taking the heat out of the economy. We understand the logic that a lower discount rate makes future cash flows more valuable in the present, but we doubt that future cash flows will be unblemished in a tougher economic backdrop. Given this viewpoint, we continue to operate with a relatively modest exposure to risk assets (c 30% including equities and commodity exposure).
In 2022 investors were fixated on the rate of change of interest rates, however, we do not think financial markets are out of the woods even if policymakers appear to be reaching the final stages of their current rate hiking cycle. We operate in a financial system that has become accustomed to ever lower interest rates over the past four decades. The obvious outcome in such an environment is for leverage to increase - and increase it has. Whilst interest rates might have risen sharply over the last 12 months, the impact is not always felt instantaneously. As Warren Buffett once said, "only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked". A repricing of the cost of capital has already taken out the giddiest parts of the market but the longer rates are held at current levels, the further the pain is likely to spread.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/ruffer-in ... 00045968W/
So I'm not sure that there is anywhere to hide, or find opportunities to grow one's investments for some time yet. RICA and PNL have significant amounts in Gov bonds and TIPS, and some gold. I can't help thinking that cash in bank type accounts is currently offering returns of 3-4%. Or maybe I need to look again at multi-asset trusts of the "Flexible" AIC sector.
Disc: I hold Ruffer (RICA). I no longer hold PNL.