DavidM13 wrote:That is indeed the case but it is not a sophisticated dividend forecasting model and is always designed to be as conservative as possible. An example of their forecasting methodology:
Company A pays 2 dividends per year and for 2018 it was:
June 6p
December 7p
Total = 13p.
So for 2019 the forecast is also 13p. As we move through 2019 and more information becomes available this may change. So if the June 2019 dividend is 7p instead of 6p, the forecast for the whole year would notch up to 14p . In the absence of more information they anticipate the final dividend to be unchanged.
In reality this is little different to the 12m rolling yield which is another industry standard but mainly created for open-end funds.
So to call it "forecasting" is a little misleading, as that implies advanced modelling based on underlying portfolios. This is rather balancing up the anticipated annual dividends based upon latest information.
Hope that makes sense.
Not an awful lot, no. Firstly, I think you'll find that 12m rolling yield is
the standard that everyone looks at for all equity investments (and their portfolios overall), not something "mainly created for open-end funds", and secondly, given your description above, if you are assuming that the "forecast" dividends will be the same as that in the past 12m then why not just go with the standard 12m rolling yield anyway?
Or are you saying that if, say, XYZ,
declares that they intend to double the dividend for the next year then the AIC site will show a doubling of the yield, even though none of it has been paid out yet?
If so I personally think that's confusing, and you may care to take a poll on this board as to what people expect and want "yield" to mean.
However, in either case, I note looking through my correspondence with Marie Sadler on the matter that she said "
Sorry for the confusion, I intend to make the Glossary notes clearer so that users will understand how the data is calculated." but that never seems to have happened.
On an aside, please note the discussion at
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=17415#p217849. It seems that either there's nowhere on the AIC site that lists the definitions of the AIC Sectors, or if there is it isn't easily findable, so please pass that onto the relevant people.