Scottish Mortgage heading for where

[Dod101]

Scottish Mortgage is not without risk, in fact I daresay that it is much more risky than many shares. I have since 1 January extracted first 15% of the 1 January valuation and since then another 15% of the same valuation just to protect the gain. It is still my biggest holding and I intend to let it run now.

OTOH, talking of risk, HSBC has proved to be by far the worse risk. At 1 January, its shares were quoted at £5.91, now £3.79. The corresponding figures for Scottish Mortgage are £5.79 and £7.30. I was hoping to sell some HSBC at something over say £4.50!

Dod

I really don't think is 'much more risky than many shares'. Their largest holding is Tesla at 11%, followed by Amazon at 9.3%. Then lots of other companies which each represent 5% or so of their portfolio. In other words it is spread over a number of very successful companies. One can't equate buying shares in an investment trust like that with the risk of buying shares in a single UK company. One could argue that Tesla could well go pop in due course but that is only 11% of their portfolio (coincidentally about the same percentage as Mr Darwell's fund held in Wirecard!)

I have never sold any SMT with the result that it is rather a large part of my total portfolio. I will let it run.

As of today it is my biggest holding and when I top slice it is to transfer some funds into dividend paying share (of which despite the gloom and doom there are still quite a number) That is the intention with my growth portfolio.

Dod

[BrummieDave]

I ditched my income orientated IT portfolio originally based on Luni's B7a back in April and replaced it with a US and Tech tilted growth portfolio based on VWRP (Global ETF), VUAG (S&P ETF), CNX1 (NASDAQ ETF), PCT (Polar Capital Technology IT), SMT (Scottish Mortgage IT), and four PE ITs (SLPE, iii, HVPE and HGT).

It's soared in value overall, with SMT leading the pack, and PCT close behind. Time will tell of course, but having watched Tom Slater's Webinar last week, and listened to the ii podcast interview with him this morning, I'm very pleased with my change of direction from income to TR, with SMT and PCT as the largest holdings.

I have previously held SMT during my accumulation phase, and still hold it in my wife's SIPP, and kids' ISAs, bought back in 2016 at sub £4.

[Dod101]

Yes BrummieDave. I held it sub £4 in the 'old currency' before they had a was it 4 for 1 share split? It was just a bit above the current price when they did the split last time and this is not a Poseidon type share, just as a reminder to anyone from another planet.

Dod

[bluedonkey]

Yes BrummieDave. I held it sub £4 in the 'old currency' before they had a was it 4 for 1 share split? It was just a bit above the current price when they did the split last time and this is not a Poseidon type share, just as a reminder to anyone from another planet.

Dod

I think I remember Poseidon in the dim and distant past but could you elaborate your reference, please?

[Dod101]

As I recall, Poseidon was a Western Australia mining share which went through the roof pricewise around 1969 owing to a shortage of nickel I think it was. One or two of my European friends in Hong Kong made a lot of money from it but a lot of others of course lost badly when it fell to earth. As you say, the dim and distant past. I expect that it may be on Google still. Very famous at the time. I had very recently arrived in HK and had no money for it anyway.

Dod

[kempiejon]

I think I remember Poseidon in the dim and distant past but could you elaborate your reference, please?

Ernest Borgnine and Gene Hackman, upside down boat?

[jackdaww]

I'm very pleased with my change of direction from income to TR, with SMT and PCT as the largest holdings.

====================================

i have always been TR , not seeing any sense in dividend income.

but also now moving from individual shares to IT's and also some ETF's , which hold very similar portfolios but with much lower charges and no stamp duty.

[MaraMan]

I too am in a worrying position as I have had a lump of SMT in my SIPP for 3 years and its now up 100% and by some margin my largest holding, in a similar vein, and because I have always been impressed by them, I bought a reasonably large amount of Amazon shares at the same time, and they have nearly tripled in value. I am still worrying about whether to take some of the profits or just let them run, I am erring on the side of that latter as it is my SIPP and so long term.

I do appreciate I am very exposed to Amazon though. When I retired three years ago I put roughly equal amounts of my SIPP into SMT, Monks, Fundsmith, Finsbury Growth, Caldonian and RIT. The outperformance of the first 3 has more than compensated for the weaker performance of the last 3 and along with my Amazon holdings my SIPP is at a record high. The same cannot be said for my ISA where I pursued a more flexible and partially income based strategy, and as a result that is down around 20%. Although the current market conditions are unprecedented I can't help but think I should have done the same with my ISA as my SIPP and just adopted a TR perspective, but it's probably too early to draw too many conclusions. HIndsight is a wonderful thing.

MM

[Dod101]

Thanks to Scottish Mortgage and, as it happens, Unilever amongst others, I am down only 11.5% as of last evening from my all time high on 18 January. But I like your choice of ITs for your SIPP but I would say that as I hold four of them, SMT, Finsbury, Caledonia and RIT plus Smithson. I have this year twice trimmed SMT but it remains neck and neck with Unilever as my biggest holding by some margin. I may trim both before long.

Incidentally are you sure holding Amazon directly as well as SMT and Monks is not putting too many Amazon eggs in one basket?

Dod

[MaraMan]

Thanks Dod and yes you are right I am now very overexposed to Amazon. I hold directly, through SMT and through Monks. The bear part of my brain says to trim this exposure and take some profits, the bull part says no, you bought this as a hold forever share and the reasons you like it remain. I cannot justify Amazon's valuation but equally I see it's businesses getting stronger and stronger. Maybe I should sell the direct holding and just stick to IT's and the inherent diversification they offer. I will have to mull it over.

MM

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Thanks Dod and yes you are right I am now very overexposed to Amazon. I hold directly, through SMT and through Monks. The bear part of my brain says to trim this exposure and take some profits, the bull part says no, you bought this as a hold forever share and the reasons you like it remain. I cannot justify Amazon's valuation but equally I see it's businesses getting stronger and stronger. Maybe I should sell the direct holding and just stick to IT's and the inherent diversification they offer. I will have to mull it over.

To be honest, if you buy a collective such as an investment trust then you've basically outsourced management of that part of your capital to the trust's manager. Let them worry about it IMHO.

Best wishes

Mark.

[fca2019]

Big write up in yesterday's Mail, some interesting points on SMT.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/inves ... eturn.html

[Dod101]

Thanks Dod and yes you are right I am now very overexposed to Amazon. I hold directly, through SMT and through Monks. The bear part of my brain says to trim this exposure and take some profits, the bull part says no, you bought this as a hold forever share and the reasons you like it remain. I cannot justify Amazon's valuation but equally I see it's businesses getting stronger and stronger. Maybe I should sell the direct holding and just stick to IT's and the inherent diversification they offer. I will have to mull it over.

To be honest, if you buy a collective such as an investment trust then you've basically outsourced management of that part of your capital to the trust's manager. Let them worry about it IMHO.

Best wishes

Mark.

Yes but that is hardly the point. In addition to buying and holding Scottish Mortgage and Monks the OP has a direct holding in Amazon, and it is the overall accumulation that he is discussing. I agree that if you buy an IT based on its performance then you cannot second guess the manager and say yes, but I don't like such and such a holding. You buy it all or nothing, but the manager is not saying to hold Amazon directly as well!

Dod

[ian56]

It's soared in value overall, with SMT leading the pack, and PCT close behind. Time will tell of course, but having watched Tom Slater's Webinar last week, and listened to the ii podcast interview with him this morning, I'm very pleased with my change of direction from income to TR, with SMT and PCT as the largest holdings.

Does anyone know if the webinar was recorded and available to view at the moment, I can't seem to find it anywhere.

Ian

[kempiejon]

Thanks Dod and yes you are right I am now very overexposed to Amazon. I hold directly, through SMT and through Monks. The bear part of my brain says to trim this exposure and take some profits, the bull part says no, you bought this as a hold forever share and the reasons you like it remain. I cannot justify Amazon's valuation but equally I see it's businesses getting stronger and stronger. Maybe I should sell the direct holding and just stick to IT's and the inherent diversification they offer. I will have to mull it over.

To be honest, if you buy a collective such as an investment trust then you've basically outsourced management of that part of your capital to the trust's manager. Let them worry about it IMHO.

Best wishes

Mark.

If you have a share that's soaring away, in this instance Amazon and hold it in significant proportions in other vehicles - SMT, Monks then perhaps a stop loss in the direct holding, there's a chance your managers in the trusts might employ a similar strategy, let your winners run but be prepared to get out still ahead if the worst happened. IN my example I bought BT directly over several years post 2008, between £1 and £2.00 held it also in the investment trust CTY and FTSE100 etf VUKE. BT got to about a fiver and my direct holding out weighed all my other holdings. That problem has gone now it's dropped back to £1.20 odd.

[MaraMan]

Thanks Kempijon, that's an excellent suggestion. I will do that for the time being.

MM

[Dod101]

It's soared in value overall, with SMT leading the pack, and PCT close behind. Time will tell of course, but having watched Tom Slater's Webinar last week, and listened to the ii podcast interview with him this morning, I'm very pleased with my change of direction from income to TR, with SMT and PCT as the largest holdings.

Does anyone know if the webinar was recorded and available to view at the moment, I can't seem to find it anywhere.

Ian

It and the one by James Anderson may appear on the Baillie Gifford website before too long. Both are usually well worth listening to.

Dod

[fca2019]

Does anyone think SMT is heading into bubble territory. It is up 74% since 23 March, and since lockdown its growth rate has been remarkably consistent. We've obviously had a bounce back after a crash but looks unsustainable. Do you think its taking more and more risks to get this level of growth, or is it luck, or herd behaviour driving prices about where they should be?

[scrumpyjack]

It simply reflects the market prices of the shares it owns, Amazon, Tesla etc
There is usually a small premium compared to NAV but it does sometimes go to a small discount.

If there is a bubble it is Amazon etc not SMT, but the market seems to take the view that CV makes the sort of shares SMT owns even more valuable and less risky

[Dod101]

It is only on a very modest premium to NAV and so I do not see that SMT's price is in bubble territory. I daresay it could be that some of the underlying shares are but then I hope that the managers will recognise that and do something about it. Not to say I might not top slice again before too long.

Dod