Scottish Mortgage heading for where

[EthicsGradient]

I'll bite.

"And it's meteorites that hit the earth... "

torata

No it isn't. Research!

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids- ... Abody_type

Sorry about more off-topic posts, but your link says "When a meteoroid survives a trip through the atmosphere and hits the ground, it’s called a meteorite." So I'm not sure what your point is.

[Bouleversee]

For goodness sake, with all that is going on and so many potential risks, some far more important than money, can we please refrain from point scoring and focus on the basics, though even they may be short term.

[UncleEbenezer]

For goodness sake, with all that is going on and so many potential risks, some far more important than money, can we please refrain from point scoring and focus on the basics, though even they may be short term.

You can met eor nemesis on this thread.

SMT remains my biggest single investment and biggest profit. From which you can deduce my portfolio has taken a bit of a hit in recent months. Ho, hum.

[jimmyfromlargs]

I would be interested in opinions on SMT……

1. As we know James Anderson is about to retire….I wish him well, do we have confidence in his replacement. He is about to go through the wringer….very quickly.

2. There is a China component in this fund, SMT has done well from this and I do recall some of its successes were buying in early into Alibaba as an example. Going forward do we have confidence in the SMT China play ? There is an opacity about investing in China which makes me slightly queasy. Another point I’m in BGCG which I’m concluding could be a dud.

I’m still long on SMT any opinions on the above would be interesting………Jim

[BullDog]

I would be interested in opinions on SMT……

1. As we know James Anderson is about to retire….I wish him well, do we have confidence in his replacement. He is about to go through the wringer….very quickly.

2. There is a China component in this fund, SMT has done well from this and I do recall some of its successes were buying in early into Alibaba as an example. Going forward do we have confidence in the SMT China play ? There is an opacity about investing in China which makes me slightly queasy. Another point I’m in BGCG which I’m concluding could be a dud.

I’m still long on SMT any opinions on the above would be interesting………Jim

My answer is that I am probably going to sell my small SMT holding when I break even. Which is now very close (I need to check, it might have happened and I will sell). I know it doesn't matter in the overall scheme of the universe, but I am very uncomfortable after China's refusal to condemn the Russians in Ukraine. For sometime, I have been getting increasingly uncomfortable at the communist party having unfettered power over private shareholders of Chinese stocks. Ukraine is the last straw. SMT will be gone soon, if not today.

[Dod101]

I would be interested in opinions on SMT……

1. As we know James Anderson is about to retire….I wish him well, do we have confidence in his replacement. He is about to go through the wringer….very quickly.

2. There is a China component in this fund, SMT has done well from this and I do recall some of its successes were buying in early into Alibaba as an example. Going forward do we have confidence in the SMT China play ? There is an opacity about investing in China which makes me slightly queasy. Another point I’m in BGCG which I’m concluding could be a dud.

I’m still long on SMT any opinions on the above would be interesting………Jim

My answer is that I am probably going to sell my small SMT holding when I break even. Which is now very close (I need to check, it might have happened and I will sell). I know it doesn't matter in the overall scheme of the universe, but I am very uncomfortable after China's refusal to condemn the Russians in Ukraine. For sometime, I have been getting increasingly uncomfortable at the communist party having unfettered power over private shareholders of Chinese stocks. Ukraine is the last straw. SMT will be gone soon, if not today.

I will most likely hang on to my holding in Scottish Mortgage. It has always been volatile so I am not in the least surprised that it is not doing much now. It is still my second largest holding and I have long since extracted far more than I ever invested in it. I have just sold my remaining small holding in B G China Growth. I more or less broke even on it having seen it soar early on so that was not exactly a successful investment but SMT seems to me to be different. I do not know what its exposure to China is now (its year end is 31 March) but at 30 September it had about 17% of its assets in Chinese companies.

Do not follow my opinions though, DYOR as always.

Dod

[scrumpyjack]

I do have confidence in the BG management team and accept that this is going to be very volatile but on a long term basis has always come up trumps eventually. I am glad their exposure to China is relatively small. I have always felt that the interests of overseas investors will always be at the bottom of Chinese priorities and if they can 'shaft' us they will. They have a long track record of doing so. You only have to look at sagas such as Naibu, recommended by the Inv Chronicle in spite of being an obvious scam, or what has happened with ARM's Chinese subsidiary which has essentially been 'stolen' by the Chinese management as I understand it. The Chinese do not hold foreigners in high regard, to put it mildly.

[UncleEbenezer]

but I am very uncomfortable after China's refusal to condemn the Russians in Ukraine.

At the risk of opening a new can of worms, does your discomfort extend to India and others who have refused to take sides on Ukraine? My understanding is that they won't vote with the West because that would (could?) be seen as supporting the West's long-term interference in Ukraine that led to the present circumstances.

I'd say China's neutrality is nothing more than their customary reluctance to take sides in third-party disputes. Same as when the West bombs somewhere and China declines to get involved.

[Dod101]

I do have confidence in the BG management team and accept that this is going to be very volatile but on a long term basis has always come up trumps eventually. I am glad their exposure to China is relatively small. I have always felt that the interests of overseas investors will always be at the bottom of Chinese priorities and if they can 'shaft' us they will. They have a long track record of doing so. You only have to look at sagas such as Naibu, recommended by the Inv Chronicle in spite of being an obvious scam, or what has happened with ARM's Chinese subsidiary which has essentially been 'stolen' by the Chinese management as I understand it. The Chinese do not hold foreigners in high regard, to put it mildly.

I would take issue with your last sentence. The Chinese Government does not hold foreigners in high regard, fruit, ripe for the picking I think is one way to put it. The average Chinese man in the street is ambivalent at worst. Unless things have changed dramatically the average Chinese citizen is perfectly friendly to foreigners but the language is a major barrier. And I am not just writing of Hong Kong residents.

Dod

[Dod101]

but I am very uncomfortable after China's refusal to condemn the Russians in Ukraine.

At the risk of opening a new can of worms, does your discomfort extend to India and others who have refused to take sides on Ukraine? My understanding is that they won't vote with the West because that would (could?) be seen as supporting the West's long-term interference in Ukraine that led to the present circumstances.

I'd say China's neutrality is nothing more than their customary reluctance to take sides in third-party disputes. Same as when the West bombs somewhere and China declines to get involved.

I don't think we can expect China to condemn Russia. As I said earlier I do not think there is any great love lost between them but they are, as it were, on the same side of dictatorship against freedom.

Dod

[scrumpyjack]

I do have confidence in the BG management team and accept that this is going to be very volatile but on a long term basis has always come up trumps eventually. I am glad their exposure to China is relatively small. I have always felt that the interests of overseas investors will always be at the bottom of Chinese priorities and if they can 'shaft' us they will. They have a long track record of doing so. You only have to look at sagas such as Naibu, recommended by the Inv Chronicle in spite of being an obvious scam, or what has happened with ARM's Chinese subsidiary which has essentially been 'stolen' by the Chinese management as I understand it. The Chinese do not hold foreigners in high regard, to put it mildly.

I would take issue with your last sentence. The Chinese Government does not hold foreigners in high regard, fruit, ripe for the picking I think is one way to put it. The average Chinese man in the street is ambivalent at worst. Unless things have changed dramatically the average Chinese citizen is perfectly friendly to foreigners but the language is a major barrier. And I am not just writing of Hong Kong residents.

Dod

My comments were based on the view that Western investors are 'ripe for the plucking' as you say. I don't think BG and others have taken that danger sufficiently into account. I say that on the subjective impression that they have not mentioned that risk much when talking about their investments in Chinese companies.

Western investors mostly cannot hold shares in Chinese companies and it has to be done by using a VIE mechanism. All very dodgy IMO
https://gci-investors.com/chinese-vie-s ... the-risks/

[TahiPanasDua]

The Chinese do not hold foreigners in high regard, to put it mildly.

Wow! You are way off the beam there. I have Chinese friends whom I have known for decades. In fact one or their sons is coming to stay with us tomorrow for 2 weeks.

In my experience they can be absolutely merciless in business but that is not the same thing.

TP2.

[Dod101]

I do have confidence in the BG management team and accept that this is going to be very volatile but on a long term basis has always come up trumps eventually. I am glad their exposure to China is relatively small. I have always felt that the interests of overseas investors will always be at the bottom of Chinese priorities and if they can 'shaft' us they will. They have a long track record of doing so. You only have to look at sagas such as Naibu, recommended by the Inv Chronicle in spite of being an obvious scam, or what has happened with ARM's Chinese subsidiary which has essentially been 'stolen' by the Chinese management as I understand it. The Chinese do not hold foreigners in high regard, to put it mildly.

I would take issue with your last sentence. The Chinese Government does not hold foreigners in high regard, fruit, ripe for the picking I think is one way to put it. The average Chinese man in the street is ambivalent at worst. Unless things have changed dramatically the average Chinese citizen is perfectly friendly to foreigners but the language is a major barrier. And I am not just writing of Hong Kong residents.

Dod

My comments were based on the view that Western investors are 'ripe for the plucking' as you say. I don't think BG and others have taken that danger sufficiently into account. I say that on the subjective impression that they have not mentioned that risk much when talking about their investments in Chinese companies.

Western investors mostly cannot hold shares in Chinese companies and it has to be done by using a VIE mechanism. All very dodgy IMO
https://gci-investors.com/chinese-vie-s ... the-risks/

Interesting. BG has had an office in Shanghai for some time, employing mostly local Chinese staff so I think they would see that as giving them an edge, and of course they are not running a trading company. They should therefore know their way around pretty well. They invest in local companies but as in the case of Alibaba these companies can be interfered with at the whim of some regulator and that to me is where the risk lies. Anyway this is the SMT thread so I will leave it there.

Dod

[Urbandreamer]

The Chinese Government does not hold foreigners in high regard, fruit, ripe for the picking I think is one way to put it.
Dod

As it happens I was reading a piece in a technical journal commenting about historic concerns over a joint venture. The company eventually went ahead. Some years later that countries government "siezed" (my words) the investment. Ok, "siezed" was not the word used, that was "Nationalized". The country was France.

Geopolitical risks exist and abound. Three to four years ago I was seriously considering investing in Russia.

Back to SMT, I'm happy with my holding. It should be the largest of my holdings, but the fall in price means that others have displaced it as the largest holding. At these prices, I would be tempted to buy, if other trusts that I hold, were not impacted worse, by what I view as incorrect sentiment.

[Dod101]

The Chinese Government does not hold foreigners in high regard, fruit, ripe for the picking I think is one way to put it.
Dod

As it happens I was reading a piece in a technical journal commenting about historic concerns over a joint venture. The company eventually went ahead. Some years later that countries government "siezed" (my words) the investment. Ok, "siezed" was not the word used, that was "Nationalized". The country was France.

Geopolitical risks exist and abound. Three to four years ago I was seriously considering investing in Russia.

Back to SMT, I'm happy with my holding. It should be the largest of my holdings, but the fall in price means that others have displaced it as the largest holding. At these prices, I would be tempted to buy, if other trusts that I hold, were not impacted worse, by what I view as incorrect sentiment.

That's an interesting way to put it for a market fall. An 'incorrect sentiment'. That sounds almost Putinesk. Compare 'Special Military Operation'.

Dod

[scrumpyjack]

They are currently priced at about net asset value so the poor sentiment is not sentiment about SMT but about the companies they have invested in.

[Urbandreamer]

Back to SMT, I'm happy with my holding. It should be the largest of my holdings, but the fall in price means that others have displaced it as the largest holding. At these prices, I would be tempted to buy, if other trusts that I hold, were not impacted worse, by what I view as incorrect sentiment.

That's an interesting way to put it for a market fall. An 'incorrect sentiment'. That sounds almost Putinesk. Compare 'Special Military Operation'.

Dod

Well I do really question the extent of falls in the price of shares in Indian or Taiwan companies relates to issues on Russian borders with the west.
Pacific Horizons is 1/4 invested in India last I looked. Isn't that country also "Neutral"?

SURE. my holding in Shell will have suffered. They are going to have to right off their 30 year investment. But seriously, do you maintain that EVERYTHING should be marked down, that is? That the market can't get it wrong on anything? Not companies that do "back office" stuff for GP's, or provide buildings for them to work in?

I'm sorry, but I do think that the sentiment on some investments is correct, and incorrect in other cases.

I may be proved wrong, but that's the difference between active and passive investment isn't it? Isn't this sort of thing that we pay the team at SMT to think about?

I'm deeply distressed by events in the Ukraine, but they are closer to home than some places that I invest.

PS, currently my largest holding is Ruffer. A huge surprise to me. I didn't expect the rest to drop as much as they have.

[Dod101]

Back to SMT, I'm happy with my holding. It should be the largest of my holdings, but the fall in price means that others have displaced it as the largest holding. At these prices, I would be tempted to buy, if other trusts that I hold, were not impacted worse, by what I view as incorrect sentiment.

That's an interesting way to put it for a market fall. An 'incorrect sentiment'. That sounds almost Putinesk. Compare 'Special Military Operation'.

Dod

Well I do really question the extent of falls in the price of shares in Indian or Taiwan companies relates to issues on Russian borders with the west.
Pacific Horizons is 1/4 invested in India last I looked. Isn't that country also "Neutral"?

SURE. my holding in Shell will have suffered. They are going to have to right off their 30 year investment. But seriously, do you maintain that EVERYTHING should be marked down, that is? That the market can't get it wrong on anything? Not companies that do "back office" stuff for GP's, or provide buildings for them to work in?

I'm sorry, but I do think that the sentiment on some investments is correct, and incorrect in other cases.

I may be proved wrong, but that's the difference between active and passive investment isn't it? Isn't this sort of thing that we pay the team at SMT to think about?

I'm deeply distressed by events in the Ukraine, but they are closer to home than some places that I invest.

PS, currently my largest holding is Ruffer. A huge surprise to me. I didn't expect the rest to drop as much as they have.

Sorry, I was not really arguing about whether the the falls in various parts of the market were right or wrong, although I must say that the last time I looked Shell was doing fine. It closed last night at over £20. I was simply amused at your terminology. Never before heard of market falls being called 'incorrect sentiment'. However even if I thought that some falls are overdone, I would be hard pressed to see that the market has collectively got it wrong. The market is usually telling us something and in this case it is uncertainty.

Dod

[absolutezero]

Sorry, I was not really arguing about whether the the falls in various parts of the market were right or wrong, although I must say that the last time I looked Shell was doing fine. It closed last night at over £20. I was simply amused at your terminology. Never before heard of market falls being called 'incorrect sentiment'. However even if I thought that some falls are overdone, I would be hard pressed to see that the market has collectively got it wrong. The market is usually telling us something and in this case it is uncertainty.

Dod

Interesting idea that market movements are 'wrong'.
They are neither right nor wrong. They are what they are.
Your job is to make use of that to profit.

[Dod101]

Sorry, I was not really arguing about whether the the falls in various parts of the market were right or wrong, although I must say that the last time I looked Shell was doing fine. It closed last night at over £20. I was simply amused at your terminology. Never before heard of market falls being called 'incorrect sentiment'. However even if I thought that some falls are overdone, I would be hard pressed to see that the market has collectively got it wrong. The market is usually telling us something and in this case it is uncertainty.

Dod

Interesting idea that market movements are 'wrong'.
They are neither right nor wrong. They are what they are.
Your job is to make use of that to profit.

Look I had no intention of starting War and Peace. I was simply amused at your use of the expression 'incorrect sentiment' for market moves that you think are misguided (at least that is what I assume you mean)

Dod