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Scottish Mortgage heading for where

Closed-end funds and OEICs
SoBo65
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393589

Postby SoBo65 » March 8th, 2021, 11:45 am

I picked up the ones I previously sold at £13.50 this morning for £9.51 - maybe I will look foolish, but do see this as an over reaction.

bluedonkey
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393592

Postby bluedonkey » March 8th, 2021, 11:51 am

Rather like a stopped watch which is right twice a day, eventually we may see the very first post on this thread being true again.

Parky
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393604

Postby Parky » March 8th, 2021, 12:36 pm

richfool wrote:Technology is still falling, thus SMT is also still falling, as is PHI, USA and to a small extent Monks.

Not to mention Edinburgh Worldwide, down one third from its high last month. It will be interesting to see if this is the end of Baillie Gifford's days of glory.

thehaggistrap
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393612

Postby thehaggistrap » March 8th, 2021, 12:50 pm

Vince wrote:Painful last couple of weeks, but the panic selling will stop to be replaced by people wanting to get into what is by any metric, a great investment.


Painful losses in both SMT and Edinburgh Worldwide in recent weeks.
Though the long-term performance and trend of both funds remain good - as does the general investment policy.
As a private investor I think they only thing you can do is to sit tight and wait longer-term.
Panic selling now would likely mean selling at bottom of the dip.

The real question is where this might be in 6-12 months?
My *guess* is slowly upwards- though it might take a longer period of time to regain previous highs.

DavidM13
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393617

Postby DavidM13 » March 8th, 2021, 12:56 pm

SoBo65 wrote:I picked up the ones I previously sold at £13.50 this morning for £9.51 - maybe I will look foolish, but do see this as an over reaction.


How can you be sure they were the same ones? ;)

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393642

Postby Dod101 » March 8th, 2021, 2:18 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:This is where, purely from an investment PoV, Dod's cautious policy of periodically trimming as it rose is vindicated. Cash in on that rise while you can ...

It could be quite a while before we see 1400 again.


Thanks UE. Having seen it all before I am determined not to get too carried away, especially with growth shares. I was badly burned in the tech boom and bust of 2000 and do not want that again so I tend, especially with growth shares, to extract funds on the way up so that when the inevitable happens, I can rest easy.

Sadly, talk of SMT having a support level at £9.70 or whatever cannot be true because its price is fundamentally a derivative of the price of its investments which is what we would need to concentrate on to try to guess a support level. Obviously its own price differs with supply and demand to some extent but it is surely mostly driven by its NAV.

I doubt that BG will say much. What can they say? Everyone knows where they are invested and that SMT is as a result, a volatile investment.

People currently buying are of course, and I am sure they know it, taking a chance that over the next few years SMT's price will be higher than it is now. They may well be right but who knows for the next 6 or even 12 months?

Dod

monabri
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393666

Postby monabri » March 8th, 2021, 3:57 pm

One of today's top risers (*)! Definitely a giddy ride!


(* ) at the time of posting...15 min delay! ;)

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393676

Postby scrumpyjack » March 8th, 2021, 4:47 pm

As others have said, one should take a long term view of SMT. But looking at the short term it seems they have gone to an unusual discount of about 10% based on friday's closing NAV per the RNS of 1155p. If the Nasdaq steadies and there is calm, that might unwind somewhat if the managers resume their customary buybacks when the shares are at a discount to NAV.

thehaggistrap
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393688

Postby thehaggistrap » March 8th, 2021, 5:28 pm

Sit tight - my *guess* is this will bounce back to 1100-1200 over next few months?
Today's share price is still greater than the high reached at end of October (which I was delighted with at time).

Recent drop, whilst disappointing, a reflection of the fact that share prices got ahead of themselves from Dec 20 -> Feb 21.
Nothing can go up forever. Recent pull back a reflection of that.
Longer-term trend and fundamentals still seem legitimate.

scotia
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393706

Postby scotia » March 8th, 2021, 6:01 pm

Parky wrote:
richfool wrote:Technology is still falling, thus SMT is also still falling, as is PHI, USA and to a small extent Monks.

Not to mention Edinburgh Worldwide, down one third from its high last month. It will be interesting to see if this is the end of Baillie Gifford's days of glory.

Baillie Gifford Edinburgh Worldwide IT was down about 10% this morning around 11am, then by the close it was up about 1%. The perils of ITs! Its OEIC counterpart Baillie Gifford Global Discovery gets valued once a day on a NAV basis - and doesn't get the wild inter-day swings. In the past 3 months they were both up about 30% (mid February) and have ended the three months about 2% up (the OEIC) and 5% down (the IT).

toofast2live
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393717

Postby toofast2live » March 8th, 2021, 6:59 pm

The stench of 2000 hangs in the air. Gird yer loins and prepare for an 80% hit. I experienced it once in the 70s. As a result I avoided it 20 years ago.

You soon learn once you’ve lost 80%.

If you’ve got 30+ years to retirement don’t worry. Otherwise protect your wealth.

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393744

Postby Dod101 » March 8th, 2021, 9:36 pm

toofast2live wrote:The stench of 2000 hangs in the air. Gird yer loins and prepare for an 80% hit. I experienced it once in the 70s. As a result I avoided it 20 years ago.

You soon learn once you’ve lost 80%.

If you’ve got 30+ years to retirement don’t worry. Otherwise protect your wealth.


Yes That is about what I lost on Cable & Wireless in 2000. Rather I lost about that from its peak, not from my buying price.

dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393760

Postby MusingMarket » March 8th, 2021, 11:14 pm

SMT bought back 1.5m shares today (Monday). Nasdaq 100 down 2.3% between London and New York close.

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393767

Postby Dod101 » March 8th, 2021, 11:41 pm

MusingMarket wrote:SMT bought back 1.5m shares today (Monday). Nasdaq 100 down 2.3% between London and New York close.


I rather think that we will all need to just take a calm look at SMT in say a couple of weeks and see where things are. It could hang around this level (if we are lucky) for quite some time. Unfortunately Neither SMT nor any other share is a one way escalator to paradise.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393778

Postby UncleEbenezer » March 9th, 2021, 7:24 am

Dod101 wrote: to paradise.

Dod

At times like this one might suggest it's more throwthedice.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393820

Postby seagles » March 9th, 2021, 10:30 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Dod101 wrote: to paradise.

Dod

At times like this one might suggest it's more throwthedice.


Well I threw the dice and seem to have caught the bounce. Sold ITV in my Daughters portfolio after the announcment today of no dividend (for now) and made the decision to add a bit of "growth stock" to what has been a HYP portfolio. 30 minutes later and 3.67% SP rise am happy. Brought at 10.7489

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393840

Postby vagrantbrain » March 9th, 2021, 11:17 am

toofast2live wrote:The stench of 2000 hangs in the air. Gird yer loins and prepare for an 80% hit. I experienced it once in the 70s. As a result I avoided it 20 years ago.

You soon learn once you’ve lost 80%.

If you’ve got 30+ years to retirement don’t worry. Otherwise protect your wealth.


Hmmmm... I think if we're in the economic environment where the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon lose that kind of value then heading to the hills with tins of beans and a shotgun to preserve your life would be a greater priority!

Volatile shares being volatile.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393917

Postby XFool » March 9th, 2021, 3:38 pm

toofast2live wrote:The stench of 2000 hangs in the air. Gird yer loins and prepare for an 80% hit.

I dunno. But there is a whiff in the air of people believing there is a stench of 2000 hanging in the air!

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393932

Postby scrumpyjack » March 9th, 2021, 4:24 pm

XFool wrote:
toofast2live wrote:The stench of 2000 hangs in the air. Gird yer loins and prepare for an 80% hit.

I dunno. But there is a whiff in the air of people believing there is a stench of 2000 hanging in the air!


I think the difference between 2000 and now is that today the tech companies are huge and making real profits and on an upward trend. Then it was companies with no profit, no business etc (Lastminute.com etc). Not the same at all.

thehaggistrap
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#393936

Postby thehaggistrap » March 9th, 2021, 4:39 pm

Well done to everyone who held. Unpleasant dip but now rebounding strongly. With patience and a longer term view SMT will do well


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