The Lemon Fool

fca2019 wrote:Does anyone think SMT is heading into bubble territory. It is up 74% since 23 March, and since lockdown its growth rate has been remarkably consistent. We've obviously had a bounce back after a crash but looks unsustainable. Do you think its taking more and more risks to get this level of growth, or is it luck, or herd behaviour driving prices about where they should be?

I think it is herd behaviour and it will correct back. One "I prepared earlier"...a plot of total return over the last 5 years showing the significant increase in the last couple of months compared to general performance.

Dod101 wrote:It is only on a very modest premium to NAV and so I do not see that SMT's price is in bubble territory. I daresay it could be that some of the underlying shares are but then I hope that the managers will recognise that and do something about it. Not to say I might not top slice again before too long.

The kind of shares that SMT holds are the kind of shares that I think that Fools and Lemons would struggle to own themselves. The sky-high PE ratios and near complete absence of dividends would make most here baulk at buying them individually. And that is why SMT is an important IT to own, precisely because it gives exposure to dynamic shares that you probably would otherwise miss out on.

So it should not be your only investment, but it gives you something that few other funds do. In my case I do own Amazon shares directly, which have tripled in value since I bought them. But I don't own SMT's other big positions and so it is an important holding for me. Not at all tempted to sell.

fca2019 wrote:Does anyone think SMT is heading into bubble territory. It is up 74% since 23 March, and since lockdown its growth rate has been remarkably consistent. We've obviously had a bounce back after a crash but looks unsustainable. Do you think its taking more and more risks to get this level of growth, or is it luck, or herd behaviour driving prices about where they should be?

You will have read the various comments but to answer your questions directly. It is not that SMT's price is unsustainable. To take a view on its sustainability you need to look at the underlying shares which it owns. If you listen carefully to James Anderson and Tom Slater who manage this trust I do not think you would regard them as undue risk takers. They do not follow the herd nor attempt to follow an index and if you have not listened to them I commend a visit to the Baillie Gifford website and listen to what they have to say. Neither do I think their choices of investments is down to luck. They have deliberately sought out the shares they think are the future.

Who knows how far the price will go but it is an enjoyable ride.

Dod

If you contract Scottish Mortgage, does it become Scottish Midge?

Sorry. I'll pack me tent.

This is beginning to get serious. £8.39 this morning.

Dod

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

Dod101 wrote:This is beginning to get serious. £8.39 this morning.

Dod

Recent rise in Tesla, now the world's most valuable car manufacturer. Have the lunatics taken over the asylum with Tesla?

RVF

I wouldn't bet against Musk personally, so I'd say not.

RC

It has to be the Tesla affect, as I note USA (Baillie Gifford US Growth trust) has also jumped this morning, currently +3.62%. Tesla is USA's third largest holding at 7.00% of the trust.

FWIW

I sold about 25% of my holding at £8.2862 today which totally covered my entry costs and provided me with a 10% profit on the original investment. I feel 'happier' - I'm not sure what is the right term - knowing that whatever the value of my SMT holding is now pure profit. I seem to remember it is never wrong to take a profit sometimes. So it's bound to reach £12 by the end of the year....

Eb.

Correction to the above: £8.3862 was the struck price.

Eb

Hmmmmph, I sold my SMT holding at 756,being at the time the 52 week,high, in the hope of buying again when (if) they came down again (they had been quite volatile).
So much for that strategy, in the short term.
Any views on them coming down again (eg: if there is a second wave of coronavirus) ?.......

unperplex wrote:Hmmmmph, I sold my SMT holding at 756,being at the time the 52 week,high, in the hope of buying again when (if) they came down again (they had been quite volatile).
So much for that strategy, in the short term.
Any views on them coming down again (eg: if there is a second wave of coronavirus) ?.......

I think patience is the order of the day here. As you say SMT is pretty volatile and seems to go on sales at least once a year. Im not a buyer at these levels but do have some cash in my SIPP waiting for a drop.

JuanDB wrote:

unperplex wrote:Hmmmmph, I sold my SMT holding at 756,being at the time the 52 week,high, in the hope of buying again when (if) they came down again (they had been quite volatile).
So much for that strategy, in the short term.
Any views on them coming down again (eg: if there is a second wave of coronavirus) ?.......

I think patience is the order of the day here. As you say SMT is pretty volatile and seems to go on sales at least once a year. Im not a buyer at these levels but do have some cash in my SIPP waiting for a drop.

I agree. My holding in SMT is so large that I am unlikely to top up, but if I was contemplating a top up, it would not be when SMT is flying, I always wait for bad news to go in, then I go in heavy, as I did ( not SMT but there were so many choices anyway) when things looked really bad earlier this year.

I am definitely not in the ‘the time to invest is always now’ brigade.

Bagger

Scottish Mortgage has not been very volatile this year but it has that reputation. Eboli did well. I have sold some twice this year. First in January at £5.85 and again in April at £6.12. Seemed like good ideas at the time. It is once again my biggest holding and I too must have long since extracted my original purchase price.

Probably just sit on them now and see what happens. £8.56 as I write.

Dod

i panicked myself into selling SMT ( and several other good shares ) at around 500 in march .

bought back in in again at 750 .

my stock selections have been mostly good , but i've lost a good deal trying to guess the market direction .

Thanks, Dod and others. I shall continue to sit on the sale proceeds of my SMT sale and await any significant fall.856.50p at the moment - blow, drat, growl.....

One must I suppose be thankful for small mercies. I had forgotten that I sold before they went ex div and was pleasantly surprised the other day to receive the dividend.I will not be buying many Rolls Royces with it (or even many Big Macs), however.

I'm a late addition to the SMT share register, having only purchased in May 2020. Perhaps I bought the shares that some here top sliced! The holding is about 2% of my portfolio. I really don't know whether the share price is at the mountaintop or still in the foothills, or halfway. It certainly makes for a very different part of my portfolio, with its very concentrated holdings combined with PE.

I do hope that in 5 years time, I'll be posting here to say that I've had to top slice as it has become too large a % of the PF ... alright, maybe 10 years time.

Another 3.2% up today. its the gift that keeps on giving!! Currently and without any guarantee it will actually keep on giving that is.

I changed a lot of my pension to this fund at 467p. Looking at the price history this was literally the lowest it went. Total luck but I will take it. 880p now.

DavidM13 wrote:Another 3.2% up today. its the gift that keeps on giving!! Currently and without any guarantee it will actually keep on giving that is.

I changed a lot of my pension to this fund at 467p. Looking at the price history this was literally the lowest it went. Total luck but I will take it. 880p now.

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very similar low charging funds are ---

FCIT

MNKS

ATST.

I have a small amount in SMT, Monks and MNL (Manchester & London). I am thinking that Monks should give me similar themes to SMT but with less volatility and a lower risk than the other two?