Timing a couple of switches?

[Newroad]

Morning All.

As alluded to in post(s) elsewhere, I am mulling a couple of wholesale switches.

The first of these is likely to be from WTAN to MNP, for our ISA's. The second of these is likely to be from MYI to MNKS for one grand-parental top-up to the kids JISA's.

As a practical matter, these switches could be done anytime in a six month timeframe, say December through May. I am aware of the premiums/discounts to NAV of all trusts listed.

Any thoughts on how to time these switches, taking into account the relevant factors, e.g. US election result, Brexit, Covid-19 etc? If not, should I just get on with it whenever most convenient (which would mean roughly now for the first and say April in the new financial year for the second)?

Regards, Newroad

[Mike88]

As you are already invested and merely want to switch I think the question of timing is largely irrelevant especially as the second of your investments is probably/hopefully very long term.

[Itsallaguess]

Any thoughts on how to time these switches, taking into account the relevant factors, e.g. US election result, Brexit, Covid-19 etc?

If not, should I just get on with it whenever most convenient (which would mean roughly now for the first and say April in the new financial year for the second)?

I take the view nowadays that any local-timing effects on this type of switching is likely to be lost in the noise within 18 months anyway, so I like to get it off the 'to-do' list and onto the 'done' list and get it out of the way...

This is likely to be especially true with the second Junior ISA switch, which I'll assume is going to have a relatively long-term horizon.

You've done the hard part, in deciding what you want to do. I think the 'when' is another layer of fuddlement that just gets in the way, unless there's a very strong reason for it...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Newroad]

Thanks Mike88 and ItsAllAGuess.

I suspect you are both right - that it doesn't really matter and therefore get on with it. No harm asking though

On the first one there is about a 10% difference is NAV's, so if there is any prospect of mean reversion (and it outweighing possible differences in performance) it is worth considering. On the second one, MYI has had a reasonable recent run - if that might continue in a relative sense, it might be worth waiting a bit.

Overshadowing all the above are the unusually powerful macro-factors currently in play.

Regards, Newroad

[88V8]

Next week I shall start switching out of preference shares into ITs, and other FI.
Other than looking for a discount to NAV as regards the ITs - not that I have great faith in NAVs but that's another matter - I won't worry too much about timing.

I came somewhat unstuck with my Grand Plan which was to wait until January when the Brexit chaos has kicked in and CV19 is still on the rampage, the market will be on the floor, and I have a large war chest. Where's the emoticon that means 'rubbing hands gleefully'.
Then the vaccines.
Duh.

Oh well, they do say one can't time the market.

V8

[Newroad]

Thanks, V8.

As fundamental analysis (or gut feel) aren't indicating to me or anyone who's read this when in a six month time frame might make sense, I might have a look at some technical analysis over the Christmas Period.

I've wanted to have a look at ShareScope anyway for a bit, more for interest than anything else - maybe it will have an "opinion"

Regards, Newroad

[johnstevens77]

Be aware of ex dividend dates.

I received Murray Income shares for my Perpetual Income and Growth shares but I have a full holding in the murray fund so will sell them to buy Law Debenture. I shall hold onto the Murray Income shares until after they go ex dividend on 18th Feb., then buy Law debenture befor they go ex dividend on 12th March.

john

[swill453]

Be aware of ex dividend dates.

I received Murray Income shares for my Perpetual Income and Growth shares but I have a full holding in the murray fund so will sell them to buy Law Debenture. I shall hold onto the Murray Income shares until after they go ex dividend on 18th Feb., then buy Law debenture befor they go ex dividend on 12th March.

I find it's as well to ignore ex-dividend dates. All else being equal, the share price will go down by the dividend, so you neither gain nor lose.

Scott.

[Padders72]

On the basis that my portfolio was a bit FI heavy I moved around £35K of LLPD and BOI into a selection of ITs recently. I too pondered the timing but figured there was no time like the present. You can kick yourself that months ago some of the receiving funds were at 50-60% of today's levels but then so were the instruments I am selling down. If the instrument you are investing in is of sufficient quality, within reason the timing shouldn't matter too much since sitting on duffers is an opportunity cost in itself. Not that I am suggesting that the above are duffers, I just had too many for too long.

[richfool]

Be aware of ex dividend dates.

I received Murray Income shares for my Perpetual Income and Growth shares but I have a full holding in the murray fund so will sell them to buy Law Debenture. I shall hold onto the Murray Income shares until after they go ex dividend on 18th Feb., then buy Law debenture befor they go ex dividend on 12th March.

john

John, This thread (link immediately below) and the posts by OllyDrod and myself near the bottom of the first page may be of interest:
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=26332

I did reduce my holding of MUT straight after the amalgamation and whilst MUT was at a c 3.4% premium, having secured the larger dividend (due 17/12/20), in the knowledge that the next dividend (Feb/March 2021) would be smaller, and whilst there was perhaps more euphoria around MUT.

I distributed the funds between DIG and MRCH for the time being. I may top MUT back up again up later, perhaps after the March dividend, depending on movements in the SP and premium/discount of MUT and the various contenders.

Type Ex-div date Payment date Amount
3rd interim * 20/05/2021 17/06/2021 8.25p
2nd interim * 18/02/2021 18/03/2021 3.95p
1st interim * 29/10/2020 17/12/2020 12.55p

[johnstevens77]

Be aware of ex dividend dates.


john

John, This thread (link immediately below) and the posts by OllyDrod and myself near the bottom of the first page may be of interest:
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=26332

I did reduce my holding of MUT straight after the amalgamation and whilst MUT was at a c 3.4% premium, having secured the larger dividend (due 17/12/20), in the knowledge that the next dividend (Feb/March 2021) would be smaller, and whilst there was perhaps more euphoria around MUT.

Thanks,I did follow that thread, made sense but I prefer an easy life and thought that I could get another, earlier dividend out of it. I have full holdings in MRCH AND DIG. I also hold Standard Life Aberdeen in my HYP and in theory that could be topped up but I am slowly switching into investment trusts nowadays, besides, SLA's dividend is only 0.8% covered.
DIG was a dog, capital wise for years but the dividend was stable, I doubled my holding when the managers changed their strategy a few years ago, the dividend growth has improved since then, does it for me anyway.

john

[jackdaww]

Be aware of ex dividend dates.

I received Murray Income shares for my Perpetual Income and Growth shares but I have a full holding in the murray fund so will sell them to buy Law Debenture. I shall hold onto the Murray Income shares until after they go ex dividend on 18th Feb., then buy Law debenture befor they go ex dividend on 12th March.

I find it's as well to ignore ex-dividend dates. All else being equal, the share price will go down by the dividend, so you neither gain nor lose.

Scott.

====================================

yes, xd dates are a total red herring .

[Newroad]

In case anyone remains interested ...

... I've been keeping an eye on the possible switches (MYI -> MNP & WTAN -> MNKS or MYI -> MNKS & WTAN -> MNP). I finally found a place to do so from a technical perspective as well as fundamentals (Stockcharts.com, but more importantly, its RRG Relative Strength indicator).

By accident since my original post on November 26th, its been a case of masterful inaction. The technicals, if anything, suggest going the other way as far as I can tell, i.e. keep WTAN and/or MYI.

I can sort of understand MYI's recent good performance from a fundamental perspective, there appears to have been a rotation into the sort of holdings it prefers.

What I can't understand is why WITAN has done so well recently, notwithstanding changes to its devolved investment managers around mid-year. Is it just some of the discount being reclaimed, or something more than that?

In any case, my inclination is maybe to leave alone for a while (keeping an eye on the technical) with a view to switching sometime in the new financial year, if at all. However, if the technicals clearly suggest moving earlier, I'll probably still run with that.

Regards, Newroad

[Newroad]

Morning, All.

If anyone is interested, I've finally pulled the trigger on the first switch. For both the kids JISA's, I've sold completely out of MYI and used the proceeds to buy MNP.

The remaining switch (which would now be WTAN -> MNKS, for our respective ISA's) remains in doubt, partly due to improved performance from WTAN and partly due to poorer/uncertain outlook (including changed management) for MNKS.

Regards, Newroad

[Newroad]

Hi All.

I just had cause to look at whether the decision to sell MYI for MNP on 17th June was a good one (so far). I have only ever had 10 holdings across the three portfolios - and since that date, MNP is the best and MYI the worst. The difference is almost 15%!

Not that it directly affects me anymore, but anyone know the issue, perception or otherwise, with MYI - as it does seem to be trailing quite badly?

Regards, Newroad

PS As a bonus question, anyone able to explain the the relative pricing/performance (including premium/discounts) of NCYF vs HDIV/BIPS?

[scotia]

Hi All.

I just had cause to look at whether the decision to sell MYI for MNP on 17th June was a good one (so far). I have only ever had 10 holdings across the three portfolios - and since that date, MNP is the best and MYI the worst. The difference is almost 15%!

Not that it directly affects me anymore, but anyone know the issue, perception or otherwise, with MYI - as it does seem to be trailing quite badly?

Regards, Newroad

PS As a bonus question, anyone able to explain the the relative pricing/performance (including premium/discounts) of NCYF vs HDIV/BIPS?

Murray International (MYI) and Martin Currie Global (MNP) are quite different beasts. MYI focusses on income (dividend 4.74%) while MNP focusses on growth (dividend 0.78%). In recent years growth oriented ITs have (in the main) shown a substantially higher total return than income oriented ITs.
The 5 year total returns are MYI = 36.54%, and MNP = 125.55%.
Of course, fashions may change, usually slowly. So I would not pay too much attention to short term fluctuations.
I have investments in neither MYI or MNP, but my IT selections are (currently) chiefly growth-based. I suspect there are a substantial number of investors on these boards who would favour income-based ITs due to their substantial (and usually growing) dividends.

[monabri]

What precipitated the swap - the news out of China ? (relative percentages of ASIA Pac in MYI (28%) versus 6% MNP).

[Newroad]

Thanks, Scotia.

And of course, I agree they are different beasts.

However MNP (which this isn't really about) has also done better than MWY, FCIT, ATST - the others I hold from the same sector. Conversely, MYI has done worse than HDIV and BIPS - from the Debt sector.

If you're saying the 15% or so can be explained at a sectoral level, i.e. Global Equity vs Global Equity Income, fair enough, but it seems to me more like an issue with (or the perception of) MYI.

Regards, Newroad

[Newroad]

Hi Monabri.

I assume you were asking me (about the swap[s])?

As mentioned right back at the start of the chain, I was looking to get out of MYI and WTAN at some practical point - the former because it was Equity Income and the latter for perceived performance reasons. In fairly simple terms, I wanted to focus on the Global Equity sector for the replacements, so, as much as anything else, looked at the high (5* or 4*) Morningstar rated ones from that sector that I didn't hold. Rightly or wrongly, I ruled out LTIT/SMY for stylistic reasons and initially focused on MNP and MNKS.

I used some limited Technical Analysis to try and time any potential switch, which led me to hold on to MYI and WTAN for quite some time. Finally, it looked OK to do MYI -> MNP, so I did (17th June). In parallel, the technical for MNKS looked less good, so I went through a phase of thinking about BNKR instead, before settling on MWY. When the time looked roughly right technically (basically, an up day for WTAN and a down day for MWY) I made the switch (23rd July).

None of it was about my personal view on a region, factor or whatever - that's why I go Global Equity sector - I let someone else worry about that. Perhaps one factor at the margins was my perception that MNP and MWY were slightly more concentrated - which is what I want from the Active side of the portfolio (to counterbalance the VWRL holding).

Regards, Newroad

[richfool]

Thanks, Scotia.

And of course, I agree they are different beasts.

However MNP (which this isn't really about) has also done better than MWY, FCIT, ATST - the others I hold from the same sector. Conversely, MYI has done worse than HDIV and BIPS - from the Debt sector.

If you're saying the 15% or so can be explained at a sectoral level, i.e. Global Equity vs Global Equity Income, fair enough, but it seems to me more like an issue with (or the perception of) MYI.

Regards, Newroad

Hi Newroad. I some how missed this thread (maybe due to the title).

I sold out of MYI a couple of years back, then dabbled again for a while and then sold out again early this year, (based on its poor capital performance). I added Mid Wynd (MWY) late last year and topped up earlier this year..

Then last month I sold out of HINT for much the same reasons as I sold MYI (poor of capital performance). (I now hold only JGGI and SAIN in the global growth & income sector). With the proceeds of HINT, I bought into MNP and topped up SAIN. With some other funds that became available, I bought REIT EPIC and added to renewables, energy efficiency and storage companies: SEIT, JLEN, GRID and GSF, to compensate for the reduced income and to increase my holdings of alternative assets.

My slight concern currently is the risk of a setback in the big global growth stocks and what my exposure is to that. MWY has some exposure there (along with Monks and SMT and US IT's), but MNP seems to have less exposure to those.