Murray International (divi)

[nmdhqbc]

Murray International Trust PLC
Announcement of Second Interim Dividend

5 August 2022

The Board has today declared a second interim dividend in respect of the year ending 31 December 2022 of 12.0p net (2021: 12.0p) which will be payable on 18 November 2022 to Ordinary shareholders on the register on 7 October 2022, ex dividend date 6 October 2022.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/murray-in ... 24131378V/

Hmm, the same as last year's first, second and third dividends then.

It's been 12p for the first three quarters in each of the past three years with the Q4 dividend increasing slightly each time. I'm expecting a Q3 dividend of 12p and Q4 probably 19.5p or 20p (mainly just so they can boast an 18th consecutive year of dividend growth).

yeah, it seems like they're reluctant to commit to a q1-3 increase as that locks them in for a lot more the next year. they want to keep those 3 quarters flat or progressing. and i get that. SAIN (scottish american) lowered their Q1 dividend compared to their final the year before and it disappointed me. different for SAIN as their final has always been in line with the other 3 payment not higher like MYI. the Q1 was still higher than Q1 the year before but it was a disappointment nevertheless as my planning assumed progression or flat each quarter. i know now to not assume that with SAIN. it was a very temporary disappointment though as the Q2 is now back higher than the 2021 final divi.

[scrumpyjack]

The dividend still isn't quite covered by earnings so I doubt they will raise it, beyond a token increase, until it is.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

It's been 12p for the first three quarters in each of the past three years with the Q4 dividend increasing slightly each time. I'm expecting a Q3 dividend of 12p and Q4 probably 19.5p or 20p (mainly just so they can boast an 18th consecutive year of dividend growth).

Ditto.

I had been hoping for a round 20p for the final 2021 dividend, paid May 2022. I suspect they will increase the final dividend very slightly and then the interims may even remain at 12p in 2023, or be raised by a quarter penny or something.

The dividend still isn't quite covered by earnings so I doubt they will raise it, beyond a token increase, until it is.

Ditto.

And I think it will be a pretty rare investment trust that can raise its dividend in real terms over 2022-24. We may see some decent nominal increases but inflation will likely stay ahead.

Best wishes


Mark.

[simoan]

The dividend still isn't quite covered by earnings so I doubt they will raise it, beyond a token increase, until it is.

Given the weakness of Sterling against the dollar and other currencies YTD, there should at least be a currency related boost to income in GBP to cover the dividend. We all like receiving dividends, but I don't understand why you'd take the risk of investing in this trust for that reason alone because the risk/reward doesn't look great looking back, particularly given the poor track record of capital growth. It seems to have a value oriented approach and invests in "real assets" for inflation protection, which is all well and good, but if the main reason for holding is dividend income, then that income is not even close to keeping up with inflation.

All the best, Si

[CryptoPlankton]

The dividend still isn't quite covered by earnings so I doubt they will raise it, beyond a token increase, until it is.

Given the weakness of Sterling against the dollar and other currencies YTD, there should at least be a currency related boost to income in GBP to cover the dividend. We all like receiving dividends, but I don't understand why you'd take the risk of investing in this trust for that reason alone because the risk/reward doesn't look great looking back, particularly given the poor track record of capital growth. It seems to have a value oriented approach and invests in "real assets" for inflation protection, which is all well and good, but if the main reason for holding is dividend income, then that income is not even close to keeping up with inflation.

All the best, Si

Well, it was keeping ahead of inflation extremely comfortably until very recently. If you could point me to an investment that will pretty much guarantee an inflation-beating double digit TR over the next couple of years then I would be very grateful and seriously consider reallocating my holding in MYI.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I hold MYI as a core global holding with a rather more diversified, balanced style than the rest of my portfolio. It provides a decent dividend which has been growing ahead of inflation until recently. My approach has been to supplement my MYI holding with other investments which offer a lower initial dividend yield but much stronger growth over time.

Best wishes


Mark.

[simoan]

The dividend still isn't quite covered by earnings so I doubt they will raise it, beyond a token increase, until it is.

Given the weakness of Sterling against the dollar and other currencies YTD, there should at least be a currency related boost to income in GBP to cover the dividend. We all like receiving dividends, but I don't understand why you'd take the risk of investing in this trust for that reason alone because the risk/reward doesn't look great looking back, particularly given the poor track record of capital growth. It seems to have a value oriented approach and invests in "real assets" for inflation protection, which is all well and good, but if the main reason for holding is dividend income, then that income is not even close to keeping up with inflation.

All the best, Si

Well, it was keeping ahead of inflation extremely comfortably until very recently. If you could point me to an investment that will pretty much guarantee an inflation-beating double digit TR over the next couple of years then I would be very grateful and seriously consider reallocating my holding in MYI.

This is a silly argument. Nothing is ever guaranteed so you know full well you're asking the impossible. I don't generally invest in investment trusts - what's the point unless they are very focussed and have a specific aim, including capital growth? Without capital growth and little dividend growth that's a very poor risk/reward. All I see with MYI is a mish-mash of different companies from around the world and some emerging market bonds. Personally, I don't want any exposure at all to the latter.

However, if you had a portfolio of lower yielding shares in companies that are growing rather than paying out all their cashflow in dividends, you'd be more likely to to be able to achieve income growing closer to inflation. In the past few months 90% of the companies in my portfolio have increased dividends, and some by up to 20%. And as of July YTD my dividend income is up over 30% compared to same time last year and 120% compared to 2020.

[Itsallaguess]

I don't generally invest in investment trusts - what's the point unless they are very focussed and have a specific aim, including capital growth?

Without capital growth and little dividend growth that's a very poor risk/reward. All I see with MYI is a mish-mash of different companies from around the world and some emerging market bonds. Personally, I don't want any exposure at all to the latter.

However, if you had a portfolio of lower yielding shares in companies that are growing rather than paying out all their cashflow in dividends, you'd be more likely to to be able to achieve income growing closer to inflation.

In the past few months 90% of the companies in my portfolio have increased dividends, and some by up to 20%. And as of July YTD my dividend income is up over 30% compared to same time last year and 120% compared to 2020.

1 year total-return chart of Scottish Mortgage on the blue line, compared with Murray International on the yellow line -



Source - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/f/fundsmith-equity-class-i-accumulation/charts

I believe Scottish Mortgage invests in low-yield, high-growth investments...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Dod101]

IAAG has beaten me to it, not in illustrating Scottish Mortgage against Murray International (in any case his graph can easily be refuted depending on the timescale chosen)

I was going to make the broader point that ITs cannot be compared with investments in individual companies. That is like comparing sugar and salt; they are intended for different types of investor. The investments simoan is citing clearly have a much higher risk profile and need a good deal more research than simply buying a decent well spread investment trust.

Dod

[simoan]

I’m sorry IAAG but I stated quite clearly that I don’t invest in ITs and SMG in no way matches my portfolio, so this is a straw man of monumental proportions. Even then, you’ve probably specially selected a time period that suits your argument. Anyway, enjoy the recs.

[CryptoPlankton]

However, if you had a portfolio of lower yielding shares in companies that are growing rather than paying out all their cashflow in dividends, you'd be more likely to to be able to achieve income growing closer to inflation. In the past few months 90% of the companies in my portfolio have increased dividends, and some by up to 20%. And as of July YTD my dividend income is up over 30% compared to same time last year and 120% compared to 2020.

then:

I'm sorry IAAG but I stated quite clearly that I don’t invest in ITs and SMG in no way matches my portfolio, so this is a straw man of monumental proportions. Even then, you’ve probably specially selected a time period that suits your argument

It seems we are all liable to select time periods that suit our arguments

Nevertheless, congratulations on your recent performance.

The thing is, I prefer to spend more time on other things in life than researching investments too deeply. I have found a simple strategy that seems to have consistently delivered what I need and I am happy with that. I tend to hold for the long term and, while this can lead to periods of underperformance for some of my diverse holdings (MYI over recent times being a case in point), things seem to trundle along quite satisfactorily overall. Over the past 20 years, MYI has delivered a 280% capital return and has a 15 year compound annual dividend growth rate of about 7% - good enough for me.

I have no doubt people like yourself are capable of generating better overall returns than me, and you deserve to. All I am concerned with is continuing to provide for my retirement with the minimum of effort or fuss. Horses for courses...

[simoan]

The investments simoan is citing clearly have a much higher risk profile and need a good deal more research than simply buying a decent well spread investment trust.

Dod

This is not true. I am not talking about a portfolio with much higher risk. I’m talking about holding companies like Diageo, London Stock Exchange, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm etc. These are quality large caps with good profitability metrics and long term TR.

Obviously I’m wasting my breath amidst the rampant confirmation bias on this thread so there doesn’t seem much point taking part any further.

[Dod101]

The investments simoan is citing clearly have a much higher risk profile and need a good deal more research than simply buying a decent well spread investment trust.

Dod

This is not true. I am not talking about a portfolio with much higher risk. I’m talking about holding companies like Diageo, London Stock Exchange, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Qualcomm etc. These are quality large caps with good profitability metrics and long term TR.

Obviously I’m wasting my breath amidst the rampant confirmation bias on this thread so there doesn’t seem much point taking part any further.

Now you are spoiling your own argument. Horses for courses. You should have stopped when you responded to IAAG. That I agreed with . Your next response I do not. ITs are very suitable for people who have particular needs such as a steady income with no thought or interest in investment required. You are responding through the eyes of a reasonably seasoned investor I would guess. You would be surprised at how many investors have never heard of Diageo, Qualcomm and so on and certainly have not the slightest interest in knowing nor in discovering how to buy any of them.

I understand perfectly well what you are saying and there is no confirmation bias with me.

Dod

[Itsallaguess]

However, if you had a portfolio of lower yielding shares in companies that are growing rather than paying out all their cashflow in dividends, you'd be more likely to to be able to achieve income growing closer to inflation. In the past few months 90% of the companies in my portfolio have increased dividends, and some by up to 20%. And as of July YTD my dividend income is up over 30% compared to same time last year and 120% compared to 2020.

then:

I'm sorry IAAG but I stated quite clearly that I don’t invest in ITs and [SMT] in no way matches my portfolio, so this is a straw man of monumental proportions. Even then, you’ve probably specially selected a time period that suits your argument

It seems we are all liable to select time periods that suit our arguments

Well exactly...

I honestly thought we'd entered the Twilight Zone when we saw a low-yield, high-growth investor bragging about his recent income growth, but where it was then possible for an income-investor to actually show that the 1-year total-return performance of one of the most high-profile growth-IT's of recent times has had such a relatively poor TR-based return when compared to the high-yield Murray International...

I was hoping the irony wouldn't have been lost here, but there you go...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[OldPlodder]

However, if you had a portfolio of lower yielding shares in companies that are growing rather than paying out all their cashflow in dividends, you'd be more likely to to be able to achieve income growing closer to inflation. In the past few months 90% of the companies in my portfolio have increased dividends, and some by up to 20%. And as of July YTD my dividend income is up over 30% compared to same time last year and 120% compared to 2020.

then:

I'm sorry IAAG but I stated quite clearly that I don’t invest in ITs and [SMT] in no way matches my portfolio, so this is a straw man of monumental proportions. Even then, you’ve probably specially selected a time period that suits your argument

It seems we are all liable to select time periods that suit our arguments

Well exactly...

I honestly thought we'd entered the Twilight Zone when we saw a low-yield, high-growth investor bragging about his recent income growth, but where it was then possible for an income-investor to actually show that the 1-year total-return performance of one of the most high-profile growth-IT's of recent times has had such a relatively poor TR-based return when compared to the high-yield Murray International...

I was hoping the irony wouldn't have been lost here, but there you go...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Don't worry IAAG, there are plenty enough of us who get your meaning and are also having a good laugh on this thread to discover that the future Nobel Prize for divi growth is among us. Since the thread is for ITs, and he does not invest in ITs, I am wondering why he is getting worked up at all. Personally I do not believe him, but there you are, I am not easily persuaded that pigs can fly so sustained periods. After all even the wonderful DGE have only increased divis at the rate of 5.8% over the last 15 years!

Plodder

PS: Anybody who quote increases in divi income in absolute terms makes a meaningless statement anyway. The only way the statement can be solid is by calculating the growth of Divis per Income unit, and preferably over say a 15 year period, because else it is too easy to manipulate the data to one's purposes. One of the youngsters in our family has seen his divis increase by over 2000% in the last year, but of course his portfolio was minuscule the year before and received a massive (in relative terms) new funds injection, which prove absolutely NOTHING.

[simoan]

Well exactly...

I honestly thought we'd entered the Twilight Zone when we saw a low-yield, high-growth investor bragging about his recent income growth, but where it was then possible for an income-investor to actually show that the 1-year total-return performance of one of the most high-profile growth-IT's of recent times has had such a relatively poor TR-based return when compared to the high-yield Murray International...

I was hoping the irony wouldn't have been lost here, but there you go...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Again this is a gross misrepresentation of what I am saying. I am not a high growth investor and I am not a low yield investor either. In fact, the overall yield on my portfolio is currently 2.42% and I own shares on forward yields of 9%. It is an absolute fact that my dividend income is up 35% ytd. There are some reasons for that, including exchange rates, special dividends (BHP, Tate), changes to investments etc. but that's still way ahead of inflation if it's portfolio income in GBP we are discussing as originally.

And I have large holdings in all the companies I listed. Microsoft is by far my biggest holding when you take into account my holding in Fundsmith. BTW I note that the link you provided goes to Fundsmith Equity at HL, so I guess that didn't give the extreme comparison you were looking for using the HL website and SMG had to suffice. It's OK to disagree, I'm pretty good at it, but it doesn't help anyone if you just try to pull the wool over everyone's eyes by using misleading information to make a point. I think that's bang out of order unless what you're really looking for is confirmation bias of the worst kind. When you need to lie to yourself and others, it's time to look in the mirror.

[Itsallaguess]

It is an absolute fact that my dividend income is up 35% ytd.

There are some reasons for that, including exchange rates, special dividends (BHP, Tate), changes to investments etc. but that's still way ahead of inflation if it's portfolio income in GBP we are discussing as originally.

Flippin' heck Si - you're now admitting to an audience of largely income-investors on this thread that you cheat with your stated performance figures by claiming specials as income...

Stop digging!

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Itsallaguess]

BTW I note that the link you provided goes to Fundsmith Equity at HL, so I guess that didn't give the extreme comparison you were looking for using the HL website and SMG had to suffice.

It's OK to disagree, I'm pretty good at it, but it doesn't help anyone if you just try to pull the wool over everyone's eyes by using misleading information to make a point. I think that's bang out of order unless what you're really looking for is confirmation bias of the worst kind.

When you need to lie to yourself and others, it's time to look in the mirror.

Just on a minor point of order there Si - the bookmark URL for the HL site chart-comparison page that I use *always* has the Fundsmith chart set as it's default, and the first thing I always do when I want to use the process is to remove the Fundsmith chart and enter the investments I then want to compare, so there was no intentional sleight of hand going on there, thanks, and I hope we're able to leave things like accusations of 'lying' at the door here, please...

The SMT example was picked by me to represent a broad IT-based investment that hopefully covers a lot of relatively low-yield, high-growth investments, typical of the opposite end of the 'high yield spectrum' you often rail against, and the time period chosen was relatively short simply due to the fact that your own 'dividend growth' period was also similarly short, and self-selected of course, I should add...

But much more than that - my earlier involvement in this thread with that chart comparison was of course meant as a slightly tongue-in-cheek one, which I hope others have been able to recognise, and perhaps appreciate the 'Alice in Wonderland' irony of, even if you've sadly not...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[simoan]

It is an absolute fact that my dividend income is up 35% ytd.

There are some reasons for that, including exchange rates, special dividends (BHP, Tate), changes to investments etc. but that's still way ahead of inflation if it's portfolio income in GBP we are discussing as originally.

Flippin' heck Si - you're now admitting to an audience of largely income-investors on this thread that you cheat with your stated performance figures by claiming specials as income...

Stop digging!

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I'm not an income investor. If it's paid as a dividend, it's a dividend. Simple. I suppose you'll be telling me those IT's that pay out income from selling equities or writing options etc. is not really a dividend as well?

Investing based on high equity dividend yield only is IMHO only for people who already have a lot of money, or novice investors who don't and are attracted by shiny high yields without reference to the risk of this approach. For everyone else its a losing long term strategy. I am not aware of any successful investor who got rich through only investing in high yield equities.

[OldPlodder]

" If it's paid as a dividend, it's a dividend." says our friend

ABSOLUTELY WRONG IN THE CASE OF A SPECIAL DIVI ATTACHED TO A CONSOLIDATION.

Any investor who takes such as income, which of course they are free to do, is JUST KIDDING HIMSELF.


Such a special is basically a sale of part of your holding for which you get some cash, a neutral type of portfolio event by design at the outset.

Plodder

PS This was drilled into us on a unitisation course I attended decades ago, because counting such an event as a divi in unitisation terms would grossly distort the process.