The Lemon Fool

Smithson launched in October 2018 at 1000p a share.

It's trading this morning at a little over 2000p a share, which gives a capital gain in excess of 100% for those of us who invested at launch. I make the compound annual growth rate about 25.3%. Needless to say, 3 year-CAGRs cannot be extrapolated!

The benefit of compounding is investors only need a further 50% gain to make a triple-bagger.

Best wishes


Mark.

Well done to those still holding, I bought at launch but sold out at £16.50. Running your winners continues to pay off.

I've been very excited over the last few days to see it heading to this point and my portfolio is very very grateful for this return from Smithson as it's offset some really bad choices elsewhere.

They've done a marvellous job.

Vince wrote:Well done to those still holding, I bought at launch but sold out at £16.50. Running your winners continues to pay off.

I'm always amazed at the rebalancers.
Sell your winners and invest them in losers? No thanks!

wanderer wrote:I've been very excited over the last few days to see it heading to this point and my portfolio is very very grateful for this return from Smithson as it's offset some really bad choices elsewhere.

They've done a marvellous job.

Exactly
Research has shown you can make big money and only be right less than 50% of the time if you dump the losers and run your winners.

I was one who bought at launch and am delighted to say am still in, not that I ever intended to trade it anyway, at least not in the short term. Two years is much too short for me. I will look at it in another three years or so. Need to let it mature.

Apart from Scottish Mortgage though I unfortunately do not have too many like that.

Dod

What’s happened to the underlying FCF yield?

I should have bought at issue but didn’t. Held (and hold) Fundsmith and FEET so felt i had enough Smith!

Congrats for holding it. Remember you and Dod commenting on it on 20 March 20 when it had crashed back down to 1036 around its opening price and being in shock about it.

So really it's had rocketed in 19 months.

Shows benefit of holding out in a crash.

Spet0789 wrote:What’s happened to the underlying FCF yield?

Smithson's 'historical neutral FCF yield' was 3.9% in December 2018, 3.2% in December 2019 and 2.9% in December 2020. The respective figures for the MSCI World SMID Index (ex financials) were 4.2%, 3.5% and 3.2%. This data was from the Smithson AGM presentation.

The free cashflow yield has basically declined by 26%.

It is fair to say Smithson's portfolio has become more expensive on a free cashflow yield basis. However, it has not doubled in valuation so there has been underlying growth in free cash flow (which is what we want to see).

Best wishes


Mark.

I was slow into Smithson, bought in only 18 months ago as I was (wrongly) concerned about its potential at first. I have a large chunk in Fundsmith which also put me off Smithson a little. That has done well and for me is up 100% in 4 years, same with Monks, so lagging a little behind Smithson but not by a great deal. All of these pale when set against SMT of course, which is up about 350% over the past 4 years I think. It’s again a sizeable slice of my portfolio even after selling a third of my holding a while ago.
Anyway we’ll done to those who got in early and stayed with Smithson, you had more faith than I did, but I am pleased with my near 50% gain.

MM

Well the market certainly seems to have turned. Shocked to look today and see that Smithson has given up nearly 50% of its gains! What a rollercoaster.

wanderer wrote:Well the market certainly seems to have turned. Shocked to look today and see that Smithson has given up nearly 50% of its gains! What a rollercoaster.

Yes me too, it's 40% invested in technology which might have something to do with it. Last time I bought was April 2020 at £12.45, it slid to below £10 before coming back to finish at the end of 2021 at just over £20. Buy price is currently £15.66 but still trading at a small premium according to HL. I'm tempted to top up. Anyone else?

I bet Mr Jope is having a quiet smirk...might as well invest in Vanguards's S&P500 tracker at 0.07% OGC.

S...
S...
O....
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source : London Stock Ex. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/

monabri wrote:might as well invest in Vanguards's S&P500 tracker at 0.07% OGC.

As is the case for most shares, ITs and OEICs.
Most people would be better off with a global (or, as you say S&P) tracker fund rather than trying to predict the future.

absolutezero wrote:

monabri wrote:might as well invest in Vanguards's S&P500 tracker at 0.07% OGC.

As is the case for most shares, ITs and OEICs.
Most people would be better off with a global (or, as you say S&P) tracker fund rather than trying to predict the future.

Is that a prediction of the future?

mc2fool wrote:

absolutezero wrote:

monabri wrote:might as well invest in Vanguards's S&P500 tracker at 0.07% OGC.

As is the case for most shares, ITs and OEICs.
Most people would be better off with a global (or, as you say S&P) tracker fund rather than trying to predict the future.

Is that a prediction of the future?

No.
Predicting the future means trying to predict the fortunes of an individual company rather than the index, as I am sure you were aware.