Finsbury Growth and Income/Nick Train

[simoan]

Video of Nick Trains commentary at todays AGM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yBNASpjg0s&t=24s

All the best, Si

[KnightOfSpring]

Thanks Si. Lots of recent stuff from Nick, but again plenty of extra things in this video. Nice to hear Madeline Wright talk about Experian and Fever Tree also- she has written quite a few good Investment Insight Reports, but I had never heard her speak before (I thought her voice sounded odd and then I realised I listen to Nick at 1.5x normal speed because he speaks slowly and hadn't changed the settings ).

[monabri]

I realised I listen to Nick at 1.5x normal speed because he speaks slowly and hadn't changed the settings ).

Me too!

[Dod101]

I realised I listen to Nick at 1.5x normal speed because he speaks slowly and hadn't changed the settings ).

Me too!

I quite like Nick Train's natural delivery although he can sound quite eccentric. I think the point is though that he is not a one man band and has very clear and distinct views.

Dod

[vand]

I have a lot of time for Nick Train because his high conviction style appeals; he has a clear process, and he invests the way he sees the world unfolding.

That said, none of his big ideas (apart for DGE) seem to have paid off, and FGT has been more positioned more for "Growth" than "Income" in recent years, and that has shown through in their underperformance lately as growth as been sold off.

Personally if I wanted to invest with him then the LTI Trust is a better bet.

[Dod101]

I have a lot of time for Nick Train because his high conviction style appeals; he has a clear process, and he invests the way he sees the world unfolding.

That said, none of his big ideas (apart for DGE) seem to have paid off, and FGT has been more positioned more for "Growth" than "Income" in recent years, and that has shown through in their underperformance lately as growth as been sold off.

Personally if I wanted to invest with him then the LTI Trust is a better bet.

As always it depends on what period you are looking at. Until about a couple of years ago, Finsbury has been doing very well, but as you say, some of the 'growthier' investments have fallen back for a variety of reasons in recent times. You could say the same about James Anderson and Scottish Mortgage, or even Terry Smith with Smithson.

Dod

[vand]

I have a lot of time for Nick Train because his high conviction style appeals; he has a clear process, and he invests the way he sees the world unfolding.

That said, none of his big ideas (apart for DGE) seem to have paid off, and FGT has been more positioned more for "Growth" than "Income" in recent years, and that has shown through in their underperformance lately as growth as been sold off.

Personally if I wanted to invest with him then the LTI Trust is a better bet.

As always it depends on what period you are looking at. Until about a couple of years ago, Finsbury has been doing very well, but as you say, some of the 'growthier' investments have fallen back for a variety of reasons in recent times. You could say the same about James Anderson and Scottish Mortgage, or even Terry Smith with Smithson.

Dod

Yes, indeed. While the last 20-25 years have been great, the last 5 years have been underwelming, and last year he seems to have run into a myriad of setbacks in the last 12 months even as UK and global markets have thrived, which has been reflected in the discount to NAV that has become very evident over that time.

Like I said, I like Nick Train, and all managers and style can have periods of underperformance. I do think that he needs to re-evaluate his position on all his drink brands, though. It's perhaps indicative that he's concentrating too much on single themes rather than looking for good opportunities from across the board.

[Dod101]

Yes, indeed. While the last 20-25 years have been great, the last 5 years have been underwelming, and last year he seems to have run into a myriad of setbacks in the last 12 months even as UK and global markets have thrived, which has been reflected in the discount to NAV that has become very evident over that time.

Like I said, I like Nick Train, and all managers and style can have periods of underperformance. I do think that he needs to re-evaluate his position on all his drink brands, though. It's perhaps indicative that he's concentrating too much on single themes rather than looking for good opportunities from across the board.

Frankly these comments do not make a lot of sense to me. He seems to have three drinks brands, Diageo, Fevertree and A G Barr. Diageo is doing well, and A G Barr has struggled for some time. Fevertree? Well who knows? Is it in a pause for breath mode or in permanent decline? I have neve understood it personally and find Schweppes perfectly fine but a lot of people seem to like it.

No fund manager does well all of the time, but as long as they do better for most of the time that is all that I am concerned about and I cannot see Nick Train changing from his 'premium brands' approach any more than James Anderson and his successor changing from their support of disruptors.

Dod

[EmptyGlass]

To the 3 drinks brands above add Heineken and Remy Cointreau.
And maybe the tiny holdings in Fuller Smith & Turner, and Young & Cos Brewery as well.

[Arborbridge]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

[Dod101]

To the 3 drinks brands above add Heineken and Remy Cointreau.
And maybe the tiny holdings in Fuller Smith & Turner, and Young & Cos Brewery as well.

Thanks yes. I had not looked up the portfolio and forgot about them.

Dod

[Dod101]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

It's just that the language used in this thread resonated with the language used by posters in the CTY thread. I wasn't comparing them (they are quite different), but views expressed seem similar.

[mc2fool]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

Actually, CTY and FGT are both in the same sector, UK Equity Income*, although I've always thought that FGT is somewhat misplaced there, with always the lowest yield at typically around 2%. Maybe it's just 'cos it's got "income" in its name...

* https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sec=UGI

[vand]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

Probably, yes.
But periods of underperformance are not a bad time to reflect and to rightly ask if the strategy is still as powerful as it used to be.

[pje16]

I have no interest (holdings) in this
but in this weeks (A J Bell) Share magazine there is a 2 page article pp 30-31 on this
https://issuu.com/shares-magazine/docs/ ... zQ2MzgxNjE

Login required

[Dod101]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

Actually, CTY and FGT are both in the same sector, UK Equity Income*, although I've always thought that FGT is somewhat misplaced there, with always the lowest yield at typically around 2%. Maybe it's just 'cos it's got "income" in its name...

* https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sec=UGI

I never look at sectors, and as you say, Finsbury is hardly an income IT whatever it may be. I would place City of London alongside Edinburgh and Temple Bar for instance, but not Finsbury.

Dod

[richfool]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

Actually, CTY and FGT are both in the same sector, UK Equity Income*, although I've always thought that FGT is somewhat misplaced there, with always the lowest yield at typically around 2%. Maybe it's just 'cos it's got "income" in its name...

* https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sec=UGI

I never look at sectors, and as you say, Finsbury is hardly an income IT whatever it may be. I would place City of London alongside Edinburgh and Temple Bar for instance, but not Finsbury.

Dod

RE: "We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.".

My bolding above. Perhaps Dod should have said in their respective pigeon holes, or, separate parts of the one pond.

[BullDog]

Some of these recent comments about FGT not doing too well lately, or in the past five years, .... no where have I heard that before.

Ah! Yes, Job Curtis and City of London.

Do we all need to be more patient?

Arb.

We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.

Dod

Actually, CTY and FGT are both in the same sector, UK Equity Income*, although I've always thought that FGT is somewhat misplaced there, with always the lowest yield at typically around 2%. Maybe it's just 'cos it's got "income" in its name...

* https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sec=UGI

I never look at sectors, and as you say, Finsbury is hardly an income IT whatever it may be. I would place City of London alongside Edinburgh and Temple Bar for instance, but not Finsbury.

Dod

RE: "We all need to be more patient but I would not be comparing Nick Train with Job Curtis. Both do a good job in their respective sectors which are of course very different.".

My bolding above. Perhaps Dod should have said in their respective pigeon holes, or, separate parts of the one pond.

A perennial problem. How patient should you be before you give up and move your money to somewhere different? Difficult to answer, but a serious question.

[Dod101]

A perennial problem. How patient should you be before you give up and move your money to somewhere different? Difficult to answer, but a serious question.

I do not know but what I do know is that Nick Train has got a great record and there is nothing wrong with his choices of investments that I can see. So he has had one poor year? I am certainly prepared to wait another year or two. No share, whether an IT or otherwise, goes up in a straight line, whether it is called Finsbury Growth and Income or Scottish Mortgage for that matter.

Of course there is a limit but some held on to, maybe are still holding on to, Lloyds Banking Group from the disasters of 2008. That surely was stretching most people's patience too far, including mine but most I think could see that it was a failing business and would take years to recover.

I do not judge that to be the case with Finsbury and Lindsell Train's funds in general. Of course we need to recognise that LT's portfolios are 'conviction' ones and fairly homogeneous so that when they do well they do very well but the opposite occurs when they falter.

I only move my money to something else when the share I hold fails to do its job. A pause for a year or two is not failing in my book.

Dod