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Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

Index tracking funds and ETFs
portmoon
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Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#324411

Postby portmoon » July 7th, 2020, 6:34 pm

OK I realise none of us have a crystal ball

But fun to speculate...

On the 8th May 2018 the FTSE was 4273. I *think* this was the highest it's ever been (please correct me if I'm wrong).

Who wants to have a stab at guesstimating when it will return to this level?

Answers on a postcard....

Patterns from previous bubbles
- August 2000 - 3154 - took until Oct 2006 to get back to that level (6 years)
- July 2007 - 3454 - April 2013 (6 years)
- May 2018 - are we looking at 2024?

swill453
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Re: Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#324413

Postby swill453 » July 7th, 2020, 6:44 pm

But looking at the chart it's not really anything like a 6 year cycle - it got to within 0.4% of it 2018 high in January this year (the Boris bounce) so only pure chance it didn't exceed it at market close.

Scott.

Hariseldon58
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Re: Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#325236

Postby Hariseldon58 » July 10th, 2020, 4:57 pm

It might be helpful to refer to the All Share to differentiate between it and the FTSE 100, which many will assume you are referring to when you refer to the FTSE

It’s remarkable that the FTSE All Share has not made a lot of progress over the last 20 years, (in capital terms), makes any meaningful answer to the question very much akin to throwing a dart in the dartboard !

thirty06
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Re: Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#325777

Postby thirty06 » July 13th, 2020, 11:06 am

Is it the way the index is constructed that gives this behaviour ?

I mean, obviously it is, because that's what it does, thatI 'm trying to express is that the 100 is fairly straightforward. the 100 biggest companies by share value. If the shares go up, it goes up. If a company shrinks, it gets demoted and another company takes its place.

I used to assume that the all share was a measure of, well, all the shares, but apparently it's 641 (or something) of all the shares. So it might be a good measure for economists to 'take the temperature' of the stock market, but it's not an investment plan.

Anyway, FTSE ASX will get to 4273 at 9:46 and 32 seconds on the 11th of October in 2023. This will be result of increasing public confidence in the world situation after an announcement by President West of USAR (United States Autonomous Region) formerly the USA.

hiriskpaul
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Re: Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#326555

Postby hiriskpaul » July 16th, 2020, 11:08 am

thirty06 wrote:Is it the way the index is constructed that gives this behaviour ?

Not really. The index gives the returns of virtually the whole market. If you add up the value of all the shares in the market at one point in time and get a value of X, do the same thing at a future time and get Y, the capital performance would be Y/X. If you take the value of the index at the same points in time and get A and B, then B/A would be very close to Y/X.

The same index construction technique is used for other FTSE, MSCI, etc. indexes around the world and I don't see FTSE World investors complaining about performance. Performance of the UK market has been poor purely because of the companies listed on it.

thirty06
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Re: Just for fun - when will the FTSE ASX get back to 4273?

#327069

Postby thirty06 » July 18th, 2020, 2:38 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:
thirty06 wrote:Is it the way the index is constructed that gives this behaviour ?

Not really. The index gives the returns of virtually the whole market. If you add up the value of all the shares in the market at one point in time and get a value of X, do the same thing at a future time and get Y, the capital performance would be Y/X. If you take the value of the index at the same points in time and get A and B, then B/A would be very close to Y/X.

The same index construction technique is used for other FTSE, MSCI, etc. indexes around the world and I don't see FTSE World investors complaining about performance. Performance of the UK market has been poor purely because of the companies listed on it.


That's probably completely correct. I think I'm just a little miffed because my company pension appears to be a bunch of trackers, including ASX.


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