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Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

Index tracking funds and ETFs
Newroad
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Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328771

Postby Newroad » July 26th, 2020, 11:02 am

Hi All.

With certain key tech stocks, big components of indexes, looking (arguably) toppy, I was musing whether a conceptual equal-weight global equity ETF might be wise. For background, all my family's investments are of the form

  • 60/40 for my wife and I (SIPP's, ISA's) or 70/30 for my children (JISA's) equity/bonds
  • Within those splits, for each sub-investment, 50% passive (VWRL/VAGP), 50% active (one global equity investment trust/one global bond investment trust)

I could be wrong, but I suspect such a thing does not yet exist - perhaps due to logistical reasons relating to not easily being able to compare (or invest equally in) regions. With VWRL's current 3473 stock holding, if applied literally, it would mean each holding would be c0.03%.

However, perhaps one could synthesise something close to it at similar cost, by putting together regional level equal weighted ETF's in keeping with the existing regional weightings of VWRL (e.g. 58.7% North America) and using non-equal weighted ETF's for regions where they don't exist.

In this context, has anybody

  • Previously thought about this, and/or
  • Got an idea of the best way to achieve it, and if so
  • Know the best way to back test the performance vs, say, VWRL (to see if it's worth doing at all, amongst other things)?

I would prefer Vanguard products, all things being equal.

Regards, Newroad

dspp
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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328777

Postby dspp » July 26th, 2020, 11:28 am

Newroad wrote:Hi All.

With certain key tech stocks, big components of indexes, looking (arguably) toppy, I was musing whether a conceptual equal-weight global equity ETF might be wise. For background, all my family's investments are of the form

  • 60/40 for my wife and I (SIPP's, ISA's) or 70/30 for my children (JISA's) equity/bonds
  • Within those splits, for each sub-investment, 50% passive (VWRL/VAGP), 50% active (one global equity investment trust/one global bond investment trust)

I could be wrong, but I suspect such a thing does not yet exist - perhaps due to logistical reasons relating to not easily being able to compare (or invest equally in) regions. With VWRL's current 3473 stock holding, if applied literally, it would mean each holding would be c0.03%.

However, perhaps one could synthesise something close to it at similar cost, by putting together regional level equal weighted ETF's in keeping with the existing regional weightings of VWRL (e.g. 58.7% North America) and using non-equal weighted ETF's for regions where they don't exist.

In this context, has anybody

  • Previously thought about this, and/or
  • Got an idea of the best way to achieve it, and if so
  • Know the best way to back test the performance vs, say, VWRL (to see if it's worth doing at all, amongst other things)?

I would prefer Vanguard products, all things being equal.

Regards, Newroad


Someone here (I forget who, likely HarriSeldon though I may mis-remember) has previously done the sums and calculated that by substituting VWRL with VAPX+VUKE+VERX+etc (and I cannot remember the others) one can shave a small but useful amount off of VWRL's fee and still retain almost the breadth of VWRL (in fact I think they had calculated it was indeed exactly VWRL, as they think that internally it is the same pool). Then by adjusting the % splits between the parts one can adjust geographical exposure as one prefers vs VWRL.

Personally I use equal splits of VWRL+VUKE+VERX+VAPX as I look on the VWRL as being 50% US-biased, and all the others as being non-US, and so by doing it this way I obtain a slightly non-US bias vs just being VWRL. But I have not back-tested that. My personal rationale is that I am unlikely to retire into the USA; and that USA has always looked most overvalued vs other markets. However against my own thoughts I would also say that USA has been the best performing economy in many respects and so I am not necessarily correct to do this (though most of that overperformance is ascribable to the FANGs, or should that now be FANGT).

Out of interest which bond products do you use ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328779

Postby Newroad » July 26th, 2020, 11:41 am

Hi dspp,

Thanks for the reply.

Just to be clear, I'm not bothered about a marginal saving (or non-saving) of costs, the only reason I would do this is if I could get something approximating an equal-weighted version of VWRL (i.e. it's about risk reduction) - which is something I don't think you addressed - my apology if it's inferred and I missed it?

To answer your bond question, for the active component

  • ISA's: HDIV
  • SIPP's: IPE
  • JISA's: CMHY

For the passive component

  • VAGP for all

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328796

Postby mc2fool » July 26th, 2020, 2:12 pm

Newroad wrote:I was musing whether a conceptual equal-weight global equity ETF might be wise ... I could be wrong, but I suspect such a thing does not yet exist - perhaps due to logistical reasons relating to not easily being able to compare (or invest equally in) regions. With VWRL's current 3473 stock holding, if applied literally, it would mean each holding would be c0.03%.

Indeed, however VWRL's smallest holdings currently are 0.00001% which, given that VWRL has $4.6bn total assets, means that the smallest holdings are worth just $460. (Makes you wonder how much dickering around with tiddlers like that affects costs.)

An equal weighting would make each holding be $1,324,503, and I doubt that would be a problem in itself, as it's not the companies themselves that are tiddlers: one of the current 0.00001% holdings is AIB (Allied Irish Bank) Group, which has a market cap of €3.28bn.

I too suspect it doesn't exist, and I think that the closest easy thing you can do (which, yes,isn't very close) is to just give a much greater weight to "smaller" companies.

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328801

Postby dspp » July 26th, 2020, 2:38 pm

Newroad wrote:Hi dspp,

Thanks for the reply.

Just to be clear, I'm not bothered about a marginal saving (or non-saving) of costs, the only reason I would do this is if I could get something approximating an equal-weighted version of VWRL (i.e. it's about risk reduction) - which is something I don't think you addressed - my apology if it's inferred and I missed it?

To answer your bond question, for the active component

  • ISA's: HDIV
  • SIPP's: IPE
  • JISA's: CMHY

For the passive component

  • VAGP for all

Regards, Newroad


Thanks re bonds.

Re equal-weighting, do you mean at company-level, or at geographic-level, or what ? As I understand it VWRL is cap-weighted, and (within their remits) so too are the more specific VUKE, VAPX, etc. Why would you want to weight (say) Ford equally with Nestle with Shell ? Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328832

Postby mc2fool » July 26th, 2020, 4:55 pm

dspp wrote:As I understand it VWRL is cap-weighted, and (within their remits) so too are the more specific VUKE, VAPX, etc. Why would you want to weight (say) Ford equally with Nestle with Shell ? Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?

Are you sure? :) What do you consider more risky, a holding of 3 stocks or an equal(ish) value holding of 507 stocks?

FTSE All-World Index (PDF):

8.78% Microsoft + Apple + Amazon
7.59% Japan

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328833

Postby Newroad » July 26th, 2020, 5:01 pm

Hi dspp.

Yes, I suppose it depends on the type of risk trying to be avoided. In the context I intended, I was suggesting that having four stocks above 1% of the portfolio and already having had a very good run (and 20 above 0.5%) was "risky".

In terms of how to potentially mitigate it, I was heading towards (if I knew the answer, I wouldn't need to ask) equal weighting at the greatest grouping(s) possible, obviously world would be best but I don't think it exists, filled out with non-equal weighted where they don't.

I'm guessing the mostly likely groupings would be geographic, but I was not being prescriptive.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328840

Postby Lootman » July 26th, 2020, 7:16 pm

dspp wrote:Someone here (I forget who, likely HarriSeldon though I may mis-remember) has previously done the sums and calculated that by substituting VWRL with VAPX+VUKE+VERX+etc (and I cannot remember the others) one can shave a small but useful amount off of VWRL's fee and still retain almost the breadth of VWRL (in fact I think they had calculated it was indeed exactly VWRL, as they think that internally it is the same pool). Then by adjusting the % splits between the parts one can adjust geographical exposure as one prefers vs VWRL.

This topic, perhaps?

viewtopic.php?f=55&t=15906

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328848

Postby dspp » July 26th, 2020, 8:07 pm

mc2fool wrote:
dspp wrote:As I understand it VWRL is cap-weighted, and (within their remits) so too are the more specific VUKE, VAPX, etc. Why would you want to weight (say) Ford equally with Nestle with Shell ? Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?

Are you sure? :) What do you consider more risky, a holding of 3 stocks or an equal(ish) value holding of 507 stocks?

FTSE All-World Index (PDF):

8.78% Microsoft + Apple + Amazon
7.59% Japan


Yes, but on the one hand there is the theory of reversion to the mean (so buy Japan), and on the other hand that would be rewarding failure (so don't buy Japan).

To my mind the whole point of an index tracker is that it is market-cap weighted. To do otherwise, at company level, seems rather odd. As in "if I was going there, I wouldn't be starting from here".

You are posing a very valid question mind you, and I personally don't profess to have an answer, only counter-questions.

regards, dspp

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328903

Postby torata » July 27th, 2020, 9:32 am

Newroad wrote:However, perhaps one could synthesise something close to it at similar cost, by putting together regional level equal weighted ETF's in keeping with the existing regional weightings of VWRL (e.g. 58.7% North America) and using non-equal weighted ETF's for regions where they don't exist.

In this context, has anybody

  • Previously thought about this, and/or
  • Got an idea of the best way to achieve it, and if so
  • Know the best way to back test the performance vs, say, VWRL (to see if it's worth doing at all, amongst other things)?

I would prefer Vanguard products, all things being equal.

Regards, Newroad


I set up my SIPP (in 2006) to have equal weightings from the start along the following lines.

10% Asia ex-Japan
10% EM
10% EU
10% USA
10% UK (now 7.5%)
10% Beta (was another category before)
15% Managed (4 ITs)
15% FI
5% Global SC (now 7.5% with PE)
5% Property, Infra

I used vanguard ETFs where possible, and generally each region had 2 stocks (1 tracker ETF for the index, and another slightly different ETF or IT, e.g. HY). There was a certain amount of rearranging over time as the number and range of ETFs available to buy increased, but it's not changed greatly.
I've subsequently reduced UK % as I have an HYP and instead introduced PE into the SC bucket.

The intention was to rebalance once a year, but in fact I've generally stuck to investing the dividends appropriately. I've top sliced Scottish Mortgage twice (2019 & 2020), but the previous rebalancing action was before 2010.
The two Beta ETFs are Vanguard Momentum and Value. The intention was to also rebalance those two between themselves, but it's not been worth it so far.

Of course, with hindsight, I would have benefited from having a higher % in US trackers, reflecting world % breakdown more accurately, but then hindsight's a wonderful thing.

Performance is what you asked about

Unit value in Dec 2009*: 100
Unit value in Dec 2019: 224
Accumulation (so just accounting for the limited SIPP contributions made, not adjusting for buys and sells and dividends)

Annual rate of return since 2009* to date is 8% (MS Money figures)
[*I only started tracking performance then]

Personally I get a certain amount of pleasure from investing dividends as they pile up trickle in. More fun than bunging it all in LifeStrategy.

HTH
torata

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328924

Postby Newroad » July 27th, 2020, 11:09 am

Thanks, Torata.

Good to see you've stuck to your plans!

I would be interested in whether you have used "Equal Weight" ETF's* within those regional allocations, where possible, or whether your equal weighting predominantly only refers to the regional allocations.

Regards, Newroad

* and if so, what those ETF's are?

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328969

Postby torata » July 27th, 2020, 2:07 pm

Newroad wrote:Thanks, Torata.

Good to see you've stuck to your plans!

I would be interested in whether you have used "Equal Weight" ETF's* within those regional allocations, where possible, or whether your equal weighting predominantly only refers to the regional allocations.

Regards, Newroad

* and if so, what those ETF's are?


It's only regional allocations that were % fixed (as equal weights).
The only equal weight ETF I used was the now-defunct X-tracker Ftse 100.
torata

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328975

Postby mc2fool » July 27th, 2020, 2:22 pm

dspp wrote:
mc2fool wrote:
dspp wrote:As I understand it VWRL is cap-weighted, and (within their remits) so too are the more specific VUKE, VAPX, etc. Why would you want to weight (say) Ford equally with Nestle with Shell ? Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?

Are you sure? :) What do you consider more risky, a holding of 3 stocks or an equal(ish) value holding of 507 stocks?

FTSE All-World Index (PDF):

8.78% Microsoft + Apple + Amazon
7.59% Japan

Yes, but on the one hand there is the theory of reversion to the mean (so buy Japan), and on the other hand that would be rewarding failure (so don't buy Japan).

To my mind the whole point of an index tracker is that it is market-cap weighted. To do otherwise, at company level, seems rather odd. As in "if I was going there, I wouldn't be starting from here".

You are posing a very valid question mind you, and I personally don't profess to have an answer, only counter-questions.

I'm not clear what the relevance of your first sentence re Japan is to this; what you say is correct in as much as it would influence whether you bought "Japan" or not, but in VWRL you don't have that choice, and what I'm talking about is its weights and "risk" thereof.

The situation right now (and for quite a while) is that those three companies together are bigger that the whole of Japan, market cap wise (or, rather, the 507 Japanese companies in the FTSE All-World Index, which VWRL tracks). The three largest countries in the index are USA, Japan and China respectively, and so that means that, in effect, Microsoft+Apple+Amazon are the second largest "country" in the index, and, in fact, any two of them are the third (any two together being smaller than Japan but bigger than China).

Well I think it's pretty self-evident that the subset of VWRL that is Microsoft+Apple+Amazon is much more risky than the similarly sized subset that is Japan. There is huge company specific risk with the three, whereas with the 507-stock Japan that's pretty minimal. Of course, it does also work the other way, if one or more of the three does well it'll have a much greater benefit than a few Japanese stocks doing so.

Now, if it seems I'm picking on Microsoft+Apple+Amazon that's just 'cos they stick out like a sore thumb and are perhaps the most obvious example of the "concentration risk" that comes about with market cap weighting, and while I don't know the answer definitively, I would suggest that your comment about equal weighting that I was replying to, "Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?", just possibly may not be so. :)

Googling for does equal weighting reduce risk does throw up quite a bit of reading on the matter though .... :D

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#328981

Postby Lootman » July 27th, 2020, 2:40 pm

mc2fool wrote:Well I think it's pretty self-evident that the subset of VWRL that is Microsoft+Apple+Amazon is much more risky than the similarly sized subset that is Japan. There is huge company specific risk with the three, whereas with the 507-stock Japan that's pretty minimal. Of course, it does also work the other way, if one or more of the three does well it'll have a much greater benefit than a few Japanese stocks doing so.

Now, if it seems I'm picking on Microsoft+Apple+Amazon that's just 'cos they stick out like a sore thumb and are perhaps the most obvious example of the "concentration risk" that comes about with market cap weighting, and while I don't know the answer definitively, I would suggest that your comment about equal weighting that I was replying to, "Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?", just possibly may not be so. :)

Despite the huge size of the three shares you mentioned, with a combined market cap of over $4 trillion, the concentration risk isn't that excessive. Each of those names must be about 3% of VWRL. So whilst you would not want to lose 3% of your portfolio value in the unlikely event that one of them goes to zero, that is still a small allocation compared to some other situations.

Equal-weighting does address concentration risk to some extent. More generally equal-weighted ETFs are really a bet that smaller companies will out-perform. So they could make more sense at some points in a market cycle than other points.There is an ETF that gives you the S&P 500 equal-weighted, ticker RSP. It has under-performed recently but one might reasonably expect a reversion to the mean.

But where I have seen equal-weighted ETFs the most is with sector funds. That makes sense to me because within a single sector you can have much higher concentrations on just one or two companies. The one I hold is XBI, which is an equal-weighted biotech ETF. It is not dominated by the giants in that space - Amgen and Gilead. What it does give you is a meaningful sized spread across all US biotech companies. That makes sense to me because unless you are an expert in biotech, you will never know which ones will discover the blockbuster new drug or which ones will be taken over by big pharma companies.

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329004

Postby dspp » July 27th, 2020, 3:57 pm

mc2fool wrote:
dspp wrote:
mc2fool wrote:Are you sure? :) What do you consider more risky, a holding of 3 stocks or an equal(ish) value holding of 507 stocks?

FTSE All-World Index (PDF):

8.78% Microsoft + Apple + Amazon
7.59% Japan

Yes, but on the one hand there is the theory of reversion to the mean (so buy Japan), and on the other hand that would be rewarding failure (so don't buy Japan).

To my mind the whole point of an index tracker is that it is market-cap weighted. To do otherwise, at company level, seems rather odd. As in "if I was going there, I wouldn't be starting from here".

You are posing a very valid question mind you, and I personally don't profess to have an answer, only counter-questions.

I'm not clear what the relevance of your first sentence re Japan is to this; what you say is correct in as much as it would influence whether you bought "Japan" or not, but in VWRL you don't have that choice, and what I'm talking about is its weights and "risk" thereof.

The situation right now (and for quite a while) is that those three companies together are bigger that the whole of Japan, market cap wise (or, rather, the 507 Japanese companies in the FTSE All-World Index, which VWRL tracks). The three largest countries in the index are USA, Japan and China respectively, and so that means that, in effect, Microsoft+Apple+Amazon are the second largest "country" in the index, and, in fact, any two of them are the third (any two together being smaller than Japan but bigger than China).

Well I think it's pretty self-evident that the subset of VWRL that is Microsoft+Apple+Amazon is much more risky than the similarly sized subset that is Japan. There is huge company specific risk with the three, whereas with the 507-stock Japan that's pretty minimal. Of course, it does also work the other way, if one or more of the three does well it'll have a much greater benefit than a few Japanese stocks doing so.

Now, if it seems I'm picking on Microsoft+Apple+Amazon that's just 'cos they stick out like a sore thumb and are perhaps the most obvious example of the "concentration risk" that comes about with market cap weighting, and while I don't know the answer definitively, I would suggest that your comment about equal weighting that I was replying to, "Surely that would increase risk, not reduce it ?", just possibly may not be so. :)

Googling for does equal weighting reduce risk does throw up quite a bit of reading on the matter though .... :D


"reversion to the mean" is shorthand for things tending to go in cycles, i.e. some would suggest that the fortunes of Japan Inc will rise, and the fortunes of MSFT+AMAZ+APPL will decline. So if one thinks that is a correct prediction one increases weighting in Japan Inc, and underweights FANGs.

The opposing dictum would be that the "best predictor of future is the past". On that basis in the recent past the FANGs have been a sustained success, and Japan inc less so, so why "reward failure" by buying (overweighting) Japan Inc if you think the FANGs are going to continue on a good trend, and you think Japan Inc will continue on a not-so-good trend.

Hope that explains it.

regards, dspp

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329171

Postby 1nvest » July 28th, 2020, 12:22 pm

When I looked at holding a world stock fund and also considered a equal weighted alternative I ended up looking at directly holding a bunch of global mega-caps diversified across sectors. The ultimate conclusion I came to however was that I'd rather equal weight 'currencies' and assets. UK home £/land, US stocks/$, gold (global currency/commodity).

In 1971 the US ended the gold standard and the US$ became the primary reserve currency, which means they can print/spend as many $'s as they can get away with. Before that the $ (and £) were backed by something tangible and finite (gold). President Nixon ended that gold coupling as a means to pay down the cost of the Vietnam war. As the US devalues the $ (prints/spends), so others have also done likewise, and many further devalued their currencies relative to the US$. Within that, stocks from across a range of currencies have generally correlated - tended to zig and zag around the same time as each other.

Image

Interesting in the first chart of the following image to see how Japan grew its global market share during the 1970's and 1980's whilst the US saw its share decline from around 70% down to around 30%, and then that turned around and Japan's share declined as the US's share doubled back up again from around 30% to 60%.

Image

As the US$ is the primary reserve currency, I want to hold some of that. As the $ tends to debase against gold I'm content to also hold some of that. As I live in the UK a UK home/£ is appropriate.

The US intentionally has a superior military capacity as that is primary in sustainability. Has a large land mass and its $ is the primary reserve currency. It's practice is to simply print and buy up what looks to be the future. A larger scale of Microsoft - just buy out any competitors (preferably early when the price is low).

Equal weighted land/stock/commodity £/$/gold has land (home) being illiquid, so primarily its a 50/50 US stock/gold asset blend. There's a indicator of how that performed historically here. Not forgetting that the Pound has also relatively declined compared to the US$ so that added further benefits/reward.

That's a asset allocation that the ancient Talmud recorded millennia ago, division equally between land, commerce and cash in hand (gold). It's also what old money (generational wealth) tends to follow, 'a third, a third, a third', mantra - land, gold, art ... but with art swapped for stocks.

As such I now have no desire to hold VWRL or suchlike. Where each country takes a (variable) amount of the dividends that stocks listed within its realm pay, and where the fund manager takes their cut, typically also out of dividends. If I did I'd be more inclined to go with the likes of something like this, 5 sectors, Financials (BRK), Consumption (Unilever), Tech (Apple/Microsoft), health (Glaxo/AZN), Oils (BP/Shell). But with BRK and Unilever also partnered ... so 5 sectors, 10 stocks, 10% weighting per stock. A major index such as the FT100 and/or S&P500 can hold 10% weightings in single stocks at times. So assuming 10 stocks each 10% weighted, perhaps with 7 of the stocks listed in London - where no dividend withholding tax is applied, Berkshire Hathaway pays no dividends, so that makes 8 of the 10. If the other two were paying say 4% dividends, and 15% of that is withheld by the US, then that's a 0.12% proportional cost relative to the whole. In contrast if being held via actual foreign holdings and stocks were paying 4% dividends and perhaps seeing a average 20% of dividends being withheld, then that's a 0.8% cost. Factor in fund managers fees and you might be looking at 0.2% versus 1% differences. Which if overall gross rewards were 4% real (after inflation) then a 1% slice out of that is substantial.

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329200

Postby Newroad » July 28th, 2020, 2:18 pm

Hi 1nvest.

Thanks for the response. There are a least half a dozen points of interest we could discuss/debate from it, but that would be for another time.

On the so-called Talmudic investment strategy, I don't have a meshugas with respect to it one way or the other. However, let's accept it as reasonable at face value. So 1/3 Cash, 1/3 Land, 1/3 Business - you still have the same question I originally posed, with the latter component.

Many such strategies say just use an ETF, e.g. VWRL, for that component. You muse on a concentrated set of holdings of blue chips, but that, if anything, exacerbates the risk I would prefer to avoid (though with a different set of stocks). I am looking to see if there is some way "equal weighted broad diversification" can be achieved. On the fees sub-plot, with (say) a 4% real return, I am OK paying c0.25% in overheads etc.

I very rarely try to shoot the lights out in this kind of thing. I am a farmer's son, who went to school with many kids who came from wheat'n'sheep country. So often, after one good season of (say) grain prices, they went 100% wheat on their land next year, only to find wool prices better than grain prices the following year. This is above and beyond the fact that the two types of agriculture have different effects on the soil. So, in a simplified* two paddock (field) model, it always made sense to me to go one wheat, one sheep, then switch the paddocks around the following year - both nutrient rebalancing and de-risking the chance of a very bad year for prices (or production).

I view investing similarly.

Regards, Newroad

* It's never quite this simple of course - wheat requires harvesters, sheep require live transport etc, only requiring one set helps minimise infrastructure costs - and there are tillage (minimum or otherwise) considerations

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329203

Postby dspp » July 28th, 2020, 3:03 pm

Newroad wrote:Hi 1nvest.

Thanks for the response. There are a least half a dozen points of interest we could discuss/debate from it, but that would be for another time.

On the so-called Talmudic investment strategy, I don't have a meshugas with respect to it one way or the other. However, let's accept it as reasonable at face value. So 1/3 Cash, 1/3 Land, 1/3 Business - you still have the same question I originally posed, with the latter component.

Many such strategies say just use an ETF, e.g. VWRL, for that component. You muse on a concentrated set of holdings of blue chips, but that, if anything, exacerbates the risk I would prefer to avoid (though with a different set of stocks). I am looking to see if there is some way "equal weighted broad diversification" can be achieved. On the fees sub-plot, with (say) a 4% real return, I am OK paying c0.25% in overheads etc.

I very rarely try to shoot the lights out in this kind of thing. I am a farmer's son, who went to school with many kids who came from wheat'n'sheep country. So often, after one good season of (say) grain prices, they went 100% wheat on their land next year, only to find wool prices better than grain prices the following year. This is above and beyond the fact that the two types of agriculture have different effects on the soil. So, in a simplified* two paddock (field) model, it always made sense to me to go one wheat, one sheep, then switch the paddocks around the following year - both nutrient rebalancing and de-risking the chance of a very bad year for prices (or production).

I view investing similarly.

Regards, Newroad

* It's never quite this simple of course - wheat requires harvesters, sheep require live transport etc, only requiring one set helps minimise infrastructure costs - and there are tillage (minimum or otherwise) considerations


With your preferred switch-each-year strategy in the two paddock model you have just described how to manage reversion-to-the-mean in performance. It is a good strategy when you think there are factors beyond ones control (or beyond the control of the company) that affect outcome. But in situations like AAPL Apple Inc (or any of the FANGs / FANGT) the company appears to have the zeitgeist of its consumers finely discerned and controlled and is able to harvest them successfully, so letting-winners-run would appear to be a better strategy than the "rewarding-failure-strategy" of equal-weighting with Sony who very badly stumbled in that respect.

This is the FTSE-100 ordered by mkt cap https://lsemarketcap.com/ (or at least is should be ordered by mkt cap, if not select mkt cap by the arrow)

An equal weighted portfolio would put the same amount into ULVR (#1, £188bn) as NMC Health (#100, £10 mln*) or MCRO (#99, £951 mln)

Surely an equal-weighted strategy is dialling up the risk in some huge and unquantified way. At least by doing it by market cap one is able to access the wisdom of crowds for guidance. And if one accepts that mkt cap is a good weighting method then why not go the whole hog and use VWRL or a similar big tracker with similarly low fees. That tends towards being a 'letting-winners-run' strategy rather than a "rewarding failure" strategy.

regards, dspp

*surely that is an error for NMC at £10 mln. Surely the FTSE100 is not quite trawling the bottom that badly ?

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329207

Postby kempiejon » July 28th, 2020, 3:23 pm

Newroad wrote:However, perhaps one could synthesise something close to it at similar cost, by putting together regional level equal weighted ETF's in keeping with the existing regional weightings of VWRL (e.g. 58.7% North America) and using non-equal weighted ETF's for regions where they don't exist.


There used to be an equal weighted ETF for FTSE100 Xtrackers code XFEW, it was opened a few years ago and closed recently, I held it but the history wasn't long enough to compare meaningfully to a cap weighted. In the US there's a few more options, there's an S&P equal weighted, I thought db trackers ran it but Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF was the reference I found here https://www.etf.com/channels/equal-weighted-etfs

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Re: Equal weight equivalent of VWRL (or similar)

#329226

Postby Newroad » July 28th, 2020, 5:11 pm

Hi dspp.

I agree with the initial tenor of your reply, identifying letting winners run vs mean reversion (and a similar argument can be made for active vs passive in small cap vs large cap). However, as before, and I think questioned by Lootman, I don't think your apparent conclusions re risk necessarily follow.

Perhaps it's me with the mental block, but it seems fairly evident, almost by inspection, that something closer to equal weighted is inherently less risky than something closer to market cap weighted. This is not to say it will produce the maximum outcome, whatever that is defined as - any more than 60% stocks/40% bonds would have versus 100% stocks over modern history - but that what it did produce would likely have been achieved in a more risk optimised way. That also goes back to my original post - if it could be done now, could it be sensibly back-tested - which might conclude in an adverse finding either

  • It was materially worse, or perhaps more likely
  • It simply wasn't worth the effort

As an aside, I think the two paddock strategy is closer to an

  • asset class, than
  • asset within asset class allocation
strategy, but who knows? :)

Regards, Newroad


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