GeoffF100 wrote:This is the passive investing board. If you want less risk, you can hold more bonds. The market thinks that the risk adjusted return from DM and EM will be the same. Nobody knows what the actual returns will be. The passive investing approach is to spread your equity risk as wide as you reasonably can. Passive investors do not sell on trouble. They just ride it out - or buy more to rebalance. You can find out more here:
https://monevator.com/tag/kroijer/
I've read his book. I thought this forum was for the discussion of passive investments (trackers/passive ETFs) which don't require one to subscribe to a particular ideology. People buy these funds for various reasons and not all buy into the whole don't asset allocate, stay static, don't use any actives, keep to market cap waiting of stock (but ignore the fact that bonds are the biggest asset class in existence and allocate to them to give a risk profile) mindset. Sure, people are free to choose it but it's not the law.
The original poster posted in another forum asking for a world tracker. (s)He was directed here as passive investments are discussed here by people who use them (but not necessarily exclusively). I suggested SWDA which follows MSCI World. He didn't ask for answers that were governed by a particular investment philosophy.
My own philosophy is that I have been lucky with most of the calls I made (but not my "buying the dips" investment in Woodford's Patient Capital!) but am finding it hard to be confident of adding value at the top of the market and will probably move from my 50% active (small caps and Asia):50% passive portfolio to a bigger passive allocation. Even then though I don't share your apparent outlook as I would probably increase my IT allocation when discounts widen after a major correction.
I invest in Passives but am therefore a passive investor. If markets were efficient then an AIM tracker would be the best way to profit from AIM. It's not so I invest actively in small caps. US Small caps and Large Caps are of course efficient enough that passive investing makes sense.
I think you'll find that most passive fund investors are active in some way be it asset allocation, use of OEICs/ITs, market biases, timing, TAA, varying contributions or even investing in funds like LifeStrategy where the allocation is adjusted by committee.
Are you saying those people shouldn't post here? It would exclude the Bogleheads!