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Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

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GeoffF100
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Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493015

Postby GeoffF100 » April 9th, 2022, 11:03 am

I found this write up on Vanguard'd economic and market outlook:

https://www.vanguard.co.uk/content/dam/ ... k-2022.pdf

I have not ploughed through the details, but the portfolios at the end are of interest. Firstly note that their models are recommending a big UK bias. Also note that the models recommend holding commodities. Vanguard does not have a fund for that, in the UK at least. When they were interviewed, a couple of the chief UK van guards did not sound positive about the idea of introducing one.

Hariseldon58
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493132

Postby Hariseldon58 » April 9th, 2022, 6:25 pm

Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

On page 39 they discuss the error in their previous 10 years predictions for the US market, the predicted outcome was for $100 to grow to $213 but the outcome was $474…. Be interesting to see how their present predictions turn out.

GeoffF100
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493147

Postby GeoffF100 » April 9th, 2022, 7:00 pm

Hariseldon58 wrote:Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

An interview with two of the UK chief van guards suggested the 25% UK allocation was for marketing reasons. The portfolios at the end of the paper have a bigger UK bias.

Hariseldon58
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493284

Postby Hariseldon58 » April 10th, 2022, 12:11 pm

GeoffF100 wrote:
Hariseldon58 wrote:Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

An interview with two of the UK chief van guards suggested the 25% UK allocation was for marketing reasons. The portfolios at the end of the paper have a bigger UK bias.


Thats very true, about ⅓, more in line with the original Life Strategy when launched in the UK.

OhNoNotimAgain
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493389

Postby OhNoNotimAgain » April 10th, 2022, 5:59 pm

There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

Lootman
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493391

Postby Lootman » April 10th, 2022, 6:03 pm

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

And you can't tell us what that is because then you would be breaking a promise to someone to keep it a secret??

GeoffF100
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Re: Vanguard Economic & Market Outlook

#493488

Postby GeoffF100 » April 11th, 2022, 7:52 am

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

Vanguard has offered their economist's estimates, not forecasts.


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