The Lemon Fool

Vanguard thinks that domestic, GBP-denominated bonds will offer UK-based investors returns of between 4.7% and 5.7%. Global bonds (excluding UK bonds, hedged to GBP) are expected to offer around 4.3% to 5.3% per annum over the next decade.

For UK investors, Vanguard thinks that UK shares are likely to return between 4.6% and 6.6% per year over the next decade while global shares (ex-UK, unhedged) will return between 6.1% and 8.1%.

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/arti ... et-outlook

Their model has gone sour on UK equities.

Whilst I like their products and own a large slug of their ETFs, Vanguard know no more than anyone else.
File their predictions under 'pin the tail on the donkey' and ignore.

I do not think Vanguard's expectations have much predictive value either. Nonetheless, they are interesting, particularly when they are horribly wrong. Vanguard was stoutly defending bonds shortly before they crashed. A cynic would say they had no choice, given their products and the regulatory environment. Vanguard advertises heavily and offers regulated financial advice. Lots of people do take their pronouncements more seriously than they should. Nonetheless, even if you think their public views are worthless, those views are often a reflection of what a large proportion of the market thinks.