Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
monabri
Lemon Half
Posts: 8396
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 1539 times
Been thanked: 3428 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#434430

Postby monabri » August 12th, 2021, 7:36 pm

Acorn

https://www.investegate.co.uk/acorn-inc ... 0000P1220/

Divi declaration and

"Update on the future of the Company

Further to the Company’s announcement on 17 May 2021, where the Board of the Company announced proposals to recommend the appointment of BMO Global Asset Management to manage the Company under a new Sustainable Global Equity Income investment strategy (the “BMO Proposal”), the Board has received further interest from managers regarding the future of the Company. Despite the Board continuing to believe that the BMO Proposal is an attractive investment proposition, after careful consideration of shareholder feedback the Board has concluded that an alternative proposal to the BMO Proposal may represent a more suitable proposition for the Company’s shareholders.

Given the continued shareholder consultations and the review process of alternative proposals, the Company confirms that the Extraordinary and Annual General Meetings will not be held in August 2021 as previously expected. An announcement with further details on the future of the Company will be published as soon as practicable and expected to be no later than mid-September. Thereafter, the Company expects to publish a circular in relation to the Board's proposals for the future of the Company, including a notice convening the Extraordinary and Annual General Meeting"

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#434441

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » August 12th, 2021, 8:14 pm

I see I neglected to post an update when I sold AIF in May 2021. I sold it and directed the proceeds partly into MYI (to bolster the immediate dividend yield) but mostly into increasing my holding in BlackRock UK Smaller Companies (BRSC). The reasoning was I did not want a global sustainable strategy when I had bought into a UK small and mid cap strategy with gearing and large dividends. They also flagged a dividend cut.

But now, it turns out that the Board are reviewing their approach anyway! I'm sticking with BRSC.

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#435991

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » August 19th, 2021, 4:14 pm

Although interim results for H1 2021 should be due in the coming weeks, there's been no 'new' news on DPP. Today's market movement therefore reflects the erratic and sharp movements in an illiquid stock! There is a big spread, however the mid price of 8.75p is up about 19% compared to my 7.37p top up nine days ago. I do not draw any vindication from this - it is a very long term investment - however it did make me realise the value of the tranche of DPP that I bought with STAN would be equivalent to 548p for my STAN shares, if I still held them. In fact, STAN has fallen to 446p so my capital is 23% higher than it would otherwise have been.

Usually if a buy a share it falls, or if I sell one it rises. :D

Best wishes

Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#438900

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » September 1st, 2021, 12:49 pm

I note the U-turn by AIF's board. They are now offering a rollover into the Unicorn open-ended fund or a cash exit nearer to NAV. I would have preferred AIF continuing in its original form but this was presumably inevitable.

As stated above, I sold on the open market when they proposed a complete change of mandate.

Best wishes


Mark

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#441946

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » September 13th, 2021, 5:00 pm

I added a new position today, funded by new capital into the portfolio: Evolution AB (recently they dropped 'Gaming' from the name). The new capital increases the number of income units by about 2.5% and this is about the position size of the new holding.

I had bought it in January 2021 inside my SIPP and had posted on these boards a few weeks earlier:

Evolution Gaming Group (EVOS)

Sector: Travel & Leisure; Subsector: Casinos and Gambling.

Here's their q3 2020 presentation: https://www.evolution.com/sites/default ... 0_pres.pdf

The key stats look impressive:
66.3% ROCE;
61.5% CROIC;
43.1% EBIT margin.

Turnover has grown over nine-fold from 2013 to 2019 (hitting 365.8 Euro million) and it's forecast to reach 899.5 Euro millions by 2021, which would be about 23 times the figure for 2013. Operating profit has more than followed!

On the basis of forecasts for 2020, 2021 and 2022, the EBIT margin should rise to about 55% by 2022. Earnings per share growth is forecast at about 35% in 2021 and about 21% in 2022.

Based on estimates for 2022, it's trading on a 2.2% free cash flow yield and it's forecast to have almost twice that year's free cash flow of 390 Euro millions sitting on the balance sheet as the company's cash position balloons. (For 2020, it's trading on a c. 1.5% free cash flow yield or 54 times earnings on the EPS figures, just above its three-year average of c. 52 times EPS.)


The holding in my SIPP doubled in SEK terms between purchase and April 2021. It's currently up about 70% in Sterling terms, based on weakness in the exchange rate and the share price. Although I planned to invest today anyway, I was lucky in that the shares fell 5%.

It has the potential for strong dividend growth and the last dividend increase was 68%. However, yet again I am diluting the current dividend per income unit because the new capital into the portfolio and deployed into EVO is going to be yielding 0.6% or less. The growth will take a great deal of time time to show up in the overall portfolio and that assumes it can sustain a decent pace of increases going forward (I am NOT assuming 68% a year!)

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#451883

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » October 21st, 2021, 8:50 am

Renishaw's final results were pleasing this morning.

The commentary was optimistic and they have a solid order book. Renishaw eliminated the dividend for 2020 due to COVID-19 but reinstated the interim 2021 dividend in full, at the same level as 2019; they have now confirmed the final dividend which means a total of 66p for the year - up 10% on 2019. (Based on my 2011 purchase, the nominal dividend yield on cost is 7.6%. Renishaw was a good purchase at a knock-down price but illustrates what I am hoping to do, which is achieve a higher dividend yield over time through growth of the dividend, even if from a lower base.)

Operating margin is 24.5% and return on capital employed 18.4%. The balance sheet is very healthy and with plenty of cash, which depresses the return on capital. (I did a quick thumb through of the figures and thought it might be in the mid-20s% if we adjusted for the fact the cash isn't doing anything much. They adopt a pretty conservative financial policy.)

The shares opened up about 7% as I write.

Best wishes


Mark.

doug2500
Lemon Slice
Posts: 657
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:51 am
Has thanked: 286 times
Been thanked: 245 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#452686

Postby doug2500 » October 24th, 2021, 2:30 pm

I was reading this and thought of you, knowing you hold Mastercard (and maybe visa?) It might be old news to you but it was informative for me.

It's a Troy asset management report on digital payments.

https://www.taml.co.uk/Portals/0/Litera ... No%208.pdf

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#453018

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » October 25th, 2021, 10:07 pm

Thanks for sharing, doug2500 - it looks like an interesting read over a hot cup of tea with a little whisky!

Yes, I'm quite keen on payments - MasterCard is one of my largest positions and I hold PayPal as well. They account for 12-13% of my portfolio. My major concern with MasterCard is that they can keep their moat and/or innovate into other areas. There is a theme of significant technological disruption. So far, COVID-19 excepted!, they are continuing to grow.

Sharepad has updated the 'consensus estimates' for Renishaw, now going through to 2024 inclusive because the 2021 estimates have dropped out and into the 'reported' results section. The dividend for 2024 is still shown at less than the 66p Renishaw has already paid for 2021.

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#459984

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 22nd, 2021, 8:37 am

Diploma raised its full year ordinary dividend 43%. Not too bad all things considered!

Best wishes

Mark

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#460924

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 25th, 2021, 5:58 pm

Sharepad updated the 'consensus' forecasts for Diploma, too.

Prior to 2021's results, the dividend per share was forecast at 42.6p for 2023 - oddly enough, they achieved that two years early. They now see a c. 2% rise to over 43p in 2022 and a c. 3% rise to almost 45p in 2023 followed by a 16% rise to over 52p in 2024. I suspect the rate of increase anticipated for 2022 and 2023 is too low and 2024 is probably too high!

To date, Diploma has achieved a nominal CAGR in dividends of almost 13% since purchase and a real CAGR in the double digits, too. The forecast 2024 dividend would represent a 3.5-fold increase in the dividend in twelve years. Were all my holdings so reliable and successful in delivering consistent, strong dividend growth!

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#463605

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 6th, 2021, 6:38 pm

Victrex's 2021 results confirmed the ordinary dividend for the full year had returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. They skipped the interim for 2020 and then reinstated the dividend by paying only a final for 2020, so they had 'sort of' already reinstated the dividend at the prior level. The final dividend was the same as for 2019 but the lack of an interim made it a cut. I had wondered at the time if they would simply pay a full year dividend as a final for 2020, but they opted not to. I thought they were being cautious because I believed they had capacity to pay.

What was particularly pleasing today was an unexpected 50p special dividend - it's paid three specials since 2017.

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#466277

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 16th, 2021, 9:39 am

Domino’s Pizza Group (DOM) was up 27% earlier today. It looks like the market is treating the resolution of the sub-franchisee dispute as very good news!

This takes DOM up to 2.3% of the portfolio.

Best wishes

Mark

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#478206

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » February 3rd, 2022, 9:16 am

Good news this week in that Kone held its ordinary dividend at 1.75 Euros per share but declared a special dividend for the second year in a row at 0.35. Its profit margin was weaker but return on capital employed edged up again and has averaged 34.4% since 2014. The net cash on their balance sheet already seems to be a bit higher than forecast for end 2022, but I will need to re-check the figures to be sure.

Renishaw, too, issued promising results this morning and increased the interim dividend for 2022 by over 14 percent. Despite eliminating the dividend in 2020, they restored it in short order and the 2021 dividend was already 10 percent above pre-COVID levels and the FY 2022 dividend might be 25 percent above if they maintain the same increase as for the interim.

PayPal on the other hand unwound all its pandemic share price gains.

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#485528

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 10th, 2022, 9:00 am

Two dividend announcements this week were pleasing: Domino's Pizza Group raised its full year dividend for 2021 by 7.7 percent and added a new share buyback equivalent to 3 percent of market cap.

Now, this morning Spirax Sarco raised its full year dividend by 15 percent. The latter is a good example of a company I bought with a low initial dividend yield which has grown strongly to deliver a good dividend stream relative to the original capital invested. The nominal dividend yield on cost is now 4.2 percent and yet this is a dividend which has grown at 11% or more for many decades. I was also pleased to note that their balance sheet is very strong and net borrowing (0.35 debt to EBITDA) was significantly lower than forecast. They are conservative in their balance sheet management and frequently have net cash, which builds up and results in special dividends.

Both dividend increases well above inflation although Domino's might be overtaken by April! Or even March!

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#501995

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » May 21st, 2022, 4:31 pm

My review for 2021-22 (1 May 2021 to 30 April 2022).

TRADES

As noted above, I sold Acorn Income Fund in the market, given the proposed change of mandate, with proceeds into Murray International and Blackrock Smaller Companies; and ended up selling Standard Chartered in August 2021, to top up DP Poland.

In September 2021, new capital was added to the portfolio and a position initiated in a Swedish gaming company, Evolution Gaming (now: Evolution). The company has demonstrated very strong dividend growth but from a low initial dividend yield. Following share price falls, further top ups were made until December 2021.

The combined outcome of these trades was to reduce the current dividend per income unit, because the replacements for the capital from Acorn Income and Standard Chartered yield less than the investments they replaced. The new capital added to the portfolio and invested in Evolution also added ‘new’ income units with a lower dividend yield than the existing portfolio.

CURRENT HOLDINGS (% of PORTFOLIO)



TOTAL RETURN – INDEX


Performance was not great, with the portfolio slightly negative at -0.7 per cent. However, it did narrow the gap slightly with the FTSE All World ($) which had surged ahead at the last review, because that fell -4.2 per cent. The FTSE 100 rose 12.3 per cent and the FTSE All Share was did similarly well, however the FTSE 250 was weak, falling -5.9 percent. Given the international exposure and the tilt to smaller and mid cap companies, I’m relatively pleased.

Since the ‘year-end’ (barely three weeks) the portfolio has fallen -4.2 per cent, outperforming all the indexes and in particular the FTSE All World ($) and FTSE 250, which was down -6.7 per cent when I last checked.

TOTAL RETURN – INDIVIDUAL HOLDINGS

Sometimes the stronger performers one year are weaker the next. Examples are PayPal and Renishaw. On the other hand, Diageo did consistently well and Spirax Sarco still attained a positive return despite the strong performance the prior year.



CURRENT HOLDINGS FROM PURCHASE TO DATE (30 APRIL 2022):

PayPal seemed to have done very well for the first year, more than doubling between April 2020 and July 2021. Then it essentially collapsed and is now underwater by 30.4 per cent (no dividend to compensate either). An example of deworsification? I added to MasterCard in April 2020 as well and perhaps the PayPal capital would have found a better home there, particularly since PayPal does not currently pay a dividend.



INCOME:

The ordinary dividend income per unit came to 3.06 pence with special dividends from Kone and Victrex adding 0.11 pence as specials on top. This is the fourth year out of six where specials have been paid. The ordinary dividend per unit grew 5.5 per cent year on year, lagging inflation of 9 per cent.

I am expecting the dividend per unit to be roughly flat in 2022-23 compared to 2021-22, before showing stronger growth from 2023-24.

To date, the portfolio has returned 19.51 per cent of the capital invested in dividends (ordinary and specials).

I wrote last year (May 2021) that: ‘The ordinary dividend per unit fell almost 15 per cent. Looking at the absolute figure, total dividends fell over 9 per cent and this highlights the dilution of the dividend per unit by adding substantial new lower yielding investments. Both figures exaggerate the fall to an extent because some dividends move into next year as a result of timing changes, even though they related to this period. Had they been paid on the normal dates, the decline is closer to 5 per cent.

As noted last year, the significant new capital added to the portfolio in March and April 2020 had a dilutive effect on the dividend per unit because it went into MasterCard and PayPal; together, they contributed virtually no yield (the current yield on this new capital was then 0.0037 per cent): “even without COVID I would have expected dividends to be slightly down at best in 2020-21”.’

I need to emphasize again the impact of the trades in 2021-22, which had the effect of reducing current dividend income, and the further dilution by the new capital added from September to December 2021. The portfolio’s size today (measured by number of income units) increased over 14 per cent compared to March 2020, because new capital was being added. However, that new capital has been invested in companies with a very low current dividend yield, thereby depressing the dividend per unit. The dividends received in absolute terms this past year are up 14.4 per cent compared to the first full year, whereas the ordinary dividend per income unit is up 0.3 per cent since inception (3.06p against 3.05p).

There were no dividend cutters, but the dividends received comparing tax year with prior tax year did decline in some cases due to currency movements (i.e. Unilver) or a smaller special dividend (i.e. Kone). Victrex’s ordinary dividend was basically flat but flattered be a special, while Rotork and Domino’s Pizza changed the timing of some payments which exaggerates the growth.



Diploma did extremely well with a 42 per cent increase and has already increased its interim dividend for 2022 by 20 per cent. Evolution also increased its dividend 101 per cent but was not in the portfolio the year prior. Again, the stronger growers have a lower current dividend yield and make up for a relatively small proportion of the portfolio dividends, so this strong growth is not reflected very well at a portfolio level.

I said before it is hard to get market data on dividends. However, I tried to create a comparison (of sorts) taking the historic dividend yield reported for each index to create an estimate of the relative total dividends paid during each year. For this exercise, the second row (total dividend growth) for my portfolio is the best one to compare with the indexes because (I presume) the index yield will include special dividends, as my total dividend data does.



Despite the dilution referred to above, on an income per unit basis the income stream appears to be relatively more resilient than the market, falling by less in 2020-21, although the recovery is (accordingly) more muted. It does lag the FTSE All World ($), which has (I think always) had a lower dividend yield.

To date, about 58 per cent of returns came from capital appreciation and 42 per cent from dividends. I would prefer a longer term balance of closer to two-thirds coming from capital and one third from dividends.

RUNNING COSTS

The running costs, based on the portfolio’s capital value at the end of the period, were: annual cost (inc dealing) 0.29% and annual cost (ex dealing) 0.19%. Both are down on the year before and at a new low as the portfolio scales up, which is welcome.

As I said last year: ‘What will the next year bring? Who knows.’

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#538358

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » October 17th, 2022, 8:36 pm

After April 2020, the portfolio started to lag the FTSE All Share TR ($) index and a widening gap emerged over the course of 2020-21. That had narrowed somewhat by April 2022 and I was pleased today when I noticed that the portfolio's accumulation units are now just ahead again, despite some shocking performances this year from several of my holdings. That may not last but it shows how perceptions can change over a relatively short period.

It remains ahead of the FTSE All Share TR, FTSE 250 TR and FTSE 100 TR (as it always has so far).

Best wishes


Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#543567

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 3rd, 2022, 2:49 pm

I was quite pleased to note that Blackrock UK Smaller Companies investment trust has reported strong recovery and growth in revenues, supporting an increase in the interim dividend of over 11 percent. The last dividend, the final for 2021, increased 7 percent and the trust continued to raise its dividend throughout the pandemic. It is trading at a significant discount to NAV and the dividend yield is not too bad either.

Best wishes


Mark

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1584
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 672 times
Been thanked: 479 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#548338

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 21st, 2022, 7:33 am

Diploma raised its final dividend for 2022, resulting in a 53.8p dividend for the year - up 26% ⬆️ and ahead of the forecast 2023 dividend payment.

Double digit real terms dividend growth…If only all my holdings managed that!

Best wishes


Mark

kempiejon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3488
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:30 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1145 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#548346

Postby kempiejon » November 21st, 2022, 7:43 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Double digit real terms dividend growth…If only all my holdings managed that!

Wow. I checked the annual report https://ir.q4europe.com/solutions/Diplo ... d=15618213
A very strong financial performance
· Organic growth of 15% driven by our revenue initiatives, positive demand, and pricing:
o Controls +24%: excellent Windy City Wire performance; International Controls accelerating growth in attractive end segments while broadening US and European exposure.
o Seals +14%: accelerated market share gains in North American Aftermarket and broad-based growth in International Seals.
o Life Sciences -4%: returned to growth in Q4 as expected; excluding last year's COVID-related revenues, organic growth in the year was 2%, moderated by hospital staffing shortages.
· Reported revenues +29%: positive contribution from high quality acquisitions and 5% foreign exchange benefit.
· Adjusted operating margin 18.9%: resilient value-added service model and pricing offsetting inflation.
· Adjusted EPS +26%; total dividend also +26%, demonstrating continued confidence in the strategy.
· Free cash flow conversion in-line with our model at 90%, including targeted investment in inventory.
· Attractive returns: ROATCE 17.3%.
· Resilient balance sheet to support growth: net debt/EBITDA of 1.4x and 50% of gross debt at fixed interest rates.

simoan
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2092
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:37 am
Has thanked: 463 times
Been thanked: 1456 times

Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#548405

Postby simoan » November 21st, 2022, 10:51 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Diploma raised its final dividend for 2022, resulting in a 53.8p dividend for the year - up 26% ⬆️ and ahead of the forecast 2023 dividend payment.

Double digit real terms dividend growth…If only all my holdings managed that!

Best wishes


Mark

The sign of a quality company with strong cashflow. I've had a couple beat that increase, most recently Burberry increased by 42% at its interims.

All the best, Si


Return to “Portfolio Management & Review”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests