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ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#654419

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 18th, 2024, 10:06 pm

simoan wrote:The back end of 2020 is when Fundsmith sold out near the top for the share price after the Covid rise. The Mead Johnson acquisition was in 2017 but ROCE was already in decline because capital turnover was on a steady downtrend. I assume the acquisition didn’t look totally stupid at the time given Fundsmith held on following it.

Personally, I wouldn’t sell out here. From experience in similar situations, the reaction to the court case looks overdone to me if you take a longer term view. They still have good brands, good margins and the debt is being reduced. If they can reduce it further and get ROCE back up to 20%, it looks decent value.


Yes, ROCE had declined from the heights in the late 2000s and early 2010s but had seemed to stabilise at what it was in the early 2000s. What happened later was an utter collapse.

Consensus forecasts currently have operating margin recovery and rising ROCE into 2025.

I'm still holding (for better or worse).

An interesting article in the Guardian FWIW:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ni ... -nutrition

Jefferies' worst case scenario of £8 billion would wipe out almost three years of profits.

flyer61 wrote:interested in your thoughts on MYI as I note it remains a substantial holding. Have toped up here as the discount had reached 10% given the underlying Companies are decent. So taking a long term view should be ok.

One IT you might like to look at is LTI. The share price seems to have lost the plot! Mind you there are many IT's you could say the same about. Have a look at the underlying equities then look at the SP versus the value placed on the FM business and I am happy to just keep on buying. Probably a dividend cut coming down the line but the board may yet surprise us and use 'reserves' to keep it unchanged. Over to you!


Well, a dividend cut would be a red flag for me in general but I do hold some companies such as Renishaw that have cut the dividend or eliminated and then reinstated it right back, maintaining a generally strong rising trend. I'll check it out, thanks.

MYI? Its ongoing charges are not bad; it provides unusual geographic diversification and a general focus on cash generative, strong companies; 20 year performance is ahead of benchmark. I have a feeling it went through a good 2000s, poorer 2010s and now may be set for a better 2020s - or is that a triumph of hope over experience? I get a decent current dividend but look to get the growth from elsewhere!

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656177

Postby simoan » March 27th, 2024, 10:06 am

Hi Mark,

Lovely earnings accretive acquisition by Diploma announced this morning: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... n/16396713

Interesting company name: Peerless. I’d say that’s a decent description of Diploma’s management in performing high quality acquisitions - easily the highest quality buy and build on the London market and a happy long term hold for me. How do they get away with it? They’ve paid 7x EV/EBIT (earnings yield of 14%!) for a company with 30% operating margins and ROATCE of 15%. Share price up appropriately today in recognition.

All the best, Si

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656353

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 27th, 2024, 11:30 pm

simoan wrote:Lovely earnings accretive acquisition by Diploma announced this morning: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... n/16396713

Interesting company name: Peerless. I’d say that’s a decent description of Diploma’s management in performing high quality acquisitions - easily the highest quality buy and build on the London market and a happy long term hold for me. How do they get away with it? They’ve paid 7x EV/EBIT (earnings yield of 14%!) for a company with 30% operating margins and ROATCE of 15%. Share price up appropriately today in recognition.


Beautiful stuff. There was some comment on the analyst call this morning that price was not the only consideration and some business owners also want to consider the future of their business which might be better served within a long-term orientated, decentralised group such as Diploma, but with the benefit of their central support functions. (Renishaw is probably a good example in another context.)

At today's peak, my total return on Diploma went over 800 percent. It's now up to 8.7 percent of the portfolio and my second largest individual stock after MasterCard. The rate things are going, it'll get into double digits as a proportion of the portfolio. By a fluke, I'm glad I topped up (I was tempted by some Swedish serial acquirers but Diploma looked better value). It's compounded at something like 20 percent since 2012. I only wish I'd bought even more.

In other portfolio news, a whole load of stuff to digest with DP Poland raising further capital (FFS!) They outlined some very ambitious expansion plans including 200 stores within three years and 500 by 2030, and with Domino's Pizza Group (UK & Ireland) playing a big role in that with strategic investment and cooperation. I hold both so I suppose I'll benefit one way or the other, whichever company has got the better deal! DPP has been a serial dilutor, sadly, but the current management seem to have got things going in 2023 with a sharp improvement in performance.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656392

Postby simoan » March 28th, 2024, 9:48 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
simoan wrote:Lovely earnings accretive acquisition by Diploma announced this morning: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... n/16396713

Interesting company name: Peerless. I’d say that’s a decent description of Diploma’s management in performing high quality acquisitions - easily the highest quality buy and build on the London market and a happy long term hold for me. How do they get away with it? They’ve paid 7x EV/EBIT (earnings yield of 14%!) for a company with 30% operating margins and ROATCE of 15%. Share price up appropriately today in recognition.


Beautiful stuff. There was some comment on the analyst call this morning that price was not the only consideration and some business owners also want to consider the future of their business which might be better served within a long-term orientated, decentralised group such as Diploma, but with the benefit of their central support functions. (Renishaw is probably a good example in another context.)

At today's peak, my total return on Diploma went over 800 percent. It's now up to 8.7 percent of the portfolio and my second largest individual stock after MasterCard. The rate things are going, it'll get into double digits as a proportion of the portfolio. By a fluke, I'm glad I topped up (I was tempted by some Swedish serial acquirers but Diploma looked better value). It's compounded at something like 20 percent since 2012. I only wish I'd bought even more.

Well done on Diploma. My returns have been less stellar, but to take some credit I’ve constantly added on market pull backs and have held off from top slicing on multiple occasions which is unusual for me. My average price is now about £14.70 and it’s now the largest holding in my SIPP. I guess part of the reason they are able to acquire quality companies cheaply is because many such private companies are more undervalued than any similar US listed companies, and for business owners looking to sell their reputation makes them a safe pair of hands and good custodians for the business going forwards. It’s a great business model.

In other portfolio news, a whole load of stuff to digest with DP Poland raising further capital (FFS!) They outlined some very ambitious expansion plans including 200 stores within three years and 500 by 2030, and with Domino's Pizza Group (UK & Ireland) playing a big role in that with strategic investment and cooperation. I hold both so I suppose I'll benefit one way or the other, whichever company has got the better deal! DPP has been a serial dilutor, sadly, but the current management seem to have got things going in 2023 with a sharp improvement in performance.

Best wishes


Mark.

Good luck with DP Poland. These days I just never invest in pre-profit situations, so DPP is a bargepole job for me. I also have absolutely no insight into the market for pizza in Poland.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656399

Postby doug2500 » March 28th, 2024, 10:11 am

I first bought DPLM for 338p in 2011 and have added along the way. That recent rise has made it clearly my largest holding rather than 1st=

The only time I sold any was when the new CEO left after only a few months which spooked me a bit. That must have been 2018 I think. It felt, and still does, like the right thing to do at the time, but with hindsight wasn't.

Oh, that the rest of my holdings had been as reliable over the last few years! Diploma and my chunky holding of Fundsmith have been a solid foundation.

I'm not sure that yesterday really warranted a 11% rise from an already decent price but it's definitely worth a premium rating. The problem is only hindsight confirms how much of a premium it deserves, and any company is only a bad RNS away from a big drawdown.

I think Berkshire is another case of where companies are happy selling out to them for a fair price for the reasons mentioned.

Congratulations to Marcus on a very well timed, and sized top up. It feels like I've not made any great decisions for a while now, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656408

Postby doug2500 » March 28th, 2024, 10:33 am

And one other thing, they've been touted as moving the listing to the US and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I strikes me as a complication I don't need, although I can see how it may cause a short term uplift in price. I guess that wouldn't bother you, Marcus given you already hold US stocks?

I already lose some witholding tax on SOM and they're listed in UK! TBF that's the brokers fault.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656428

Postby simoan » March 28th, 2024, 11:56 am

doug2500 wrote:And one other thing, they've been touted as moving the listing to the US and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I strikes me as a complication I don't need, although I can see how it may cause a short term uplift in price. I guess that wouldn't bother you, Marcus given you already hold US stocks?

I already lose some witholding tax on SOM and they're listed in UK! TBF that's the brokers fault.

I moved all my SOM into my SIPP a few years ago so that US WHT is no longer a problem. Luckily, my DPLM holding is also in my SIPP although WHT on dividends is much less of an issue than for SOM which occasionally has been known to pay specials.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656617

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 29th, 2024, 12:56 pm

simoan wrote:Well done on Diploma. My returns have been less stellar, but to take some credit I’ve constantly added on market pull backs and have held off from top slicing on multiple occasions which is unusual for me. My average price is now about £14.70 and it’s now the largest holding in my SIPP. I guess part of the reason they are able to acquire quality companies cheaply is because many such private companies are more undervalued than any similar US listed companies, and for business owners looking to sell their reputation makes them a safe pair of hands and good custodians for the business going forwards. It’s a great business model.


Yes, a very good model. I bought in 2012 at about 470p (IIRC) then topped up in 2018 around 1300p (IIRC). It was still 2500p relatively recently, but I didn't have the cash to invest and my huge top up some weeks ago was over 3400p. It only really looked 'cheap' in 2012 (the dividend yield was 3.4 percent or so) and I doubt it'll get to that level again. However, even my 2012 purchase was arguably a mistake insofar as I should have bought a much bigger position (and I don't think that is mere hindsight bias).

I wouldn't bet against 15000p a share within ten years.

Good luck with DP Poland. These days I just never invest in pre-profit situations, so DPP is a bargepole job for me. I also have absolutely no insight into the market for pizza in Poland.


Investing too early was my mistake. It took the company very long to get to where it is today. The grown has been huge in store estate, revenues and EBITDA, but this has not been reflected for ordinary retail shareholders. The key is to get that transition to sub franchising really going (and it's their strategic objective for 2024) and this has been a real weakness historically. I think they really overlooked the scale they needed to get to in corporate stores. However, they have set a specific goal of 200 stores within three years and a specific proportion being sub franchised, so I would hope they have done so from a position of confidence that they will achieve it. If they did hit 500 stores by 2030 then that is only six years off and would quintuple (almost) the current store estate.

Current turnover is forecast about £50 million for 2024 and the market cap is £90 million represents 1.8 times turnover. In the long term, I would expect that to be more fairly 3-4 times turnover. Also that turnover is growing strongly. In the early days, they said they thought a Polish store could have potential for £80,000 EBITDA per year. I won't adjust that figure for inflation (and perhaps it was too optimistic back then) but 500 stores generating that sort of EBITDA would equate to £40 million a year. Let's say that they got there by 2034. The Polish economy seems to be going great guns. It has potential but has been a perennial diluter.

doug2500 wrote:I first bought DPLM for 338p in 2011 and have added along the way. That recent rise has made it clearly my largest holding rather than 1st=

The only time I sold any was when the new CEO left after only a few months which spooked me a bit. That must have been 2018 I think. It felt, and still does, like the right thing to do at the time, but with hindsight wasn't.

Oh, that the rest of my holdings had been as reliable over the last few years! Diploma and my chunky holding of Fundsmith have been a solid foundation.

I'm not sure that yesterday really warranted a 11% rise from an already decent price but it's definitely worth a premium rating. The problem is only hindsight confirms how much of a premium it deserves, and any company is only a bad RNS away from a big drawdown.

I think Berkshire is another case of where companies are happy selling out to them for a fair price for the reasons mentioned.

Congratulations to Marcus on a very well timed, and sized top up. It feels like I've not made any great decisions for a while now, but that's the way it goes sometimes.


You picked up on DPLM sooner than I did and my purchase in 2012 was substantially more expensive. I remember 2018, but I thought it positive that they realised quickly the new CEO was not the right fit and that they took action. They recognised an issue and addressed it, but it was concerning to a degree at the time.

I make mistakes too, but spend less time discussing them. :lol:

In light of Reckitt's poor performance, which I think I put up with for too long, I decided to get rid: the proceeds went (mostly) into Evolution AB, which is Swedish listed and had recently had a sharp fall as well. It is arguably a much higher quality company on the key financial metrics and much stronger growth is forecast compared to Reckitt. They raised their dividend 32 percent for the past year. The Swedish currency is also historically weak verses the GBP. I topped up DP Poland slightly also.

doug2500 wrote:And one other thing, they've been touted as moving the listing to the US and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I strikes me as a complication I don't need, although I can see how it may cause a short term uplift in price. I guess that wouldn't bother you, Marcus given you already hold US stocks?


Yes, about 22 percent of the portfolio is either in directly held US, Finnish or Swedish stocks so no issue for me. Where was it mentioned that Diploma might move to the US? They have been listed in some form since 1931 in the UK, I believe.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656618

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 29th, 2024, 12:56 pm

simoan wrote:Well done on Diploma. My returns have been less stellar, but to take some credit I’ve constantly added on market pull backs and have held off from top slicing on multiple occasions which is unusual for me. My average price is now about £14.70 and it’s now the largest holding in my SIPP. I guess part of the reason they are able to acquire quality companies cheaply is because many such private companies are more undervalued than any similar US listed companies, and for business owners looking to sell their reputation makes them a safe pair of hands and good custodians for the business going forwards. It’s a great business model.


Yes, a very good model. I bought in 2012 at about 470p (IIRC) then topped up in 2018 around 1300p (IIRC). It was still 2500p relatively recently, but I didn't have the cash to invest and my huge top up some weeks ago was over 3400p. It only really looked 'cheap' in 2012 (the dividend yield was 3.4 percent or so) and I doubt it'll get to that level again. However, even my 2012 purchase was arguably a mistake insofar as I should have bought a much bigger position (and I don't think that is mere hindsight bias).

I wouldn't bet against 15000p a share within ten years.

Good luck with DP Poland. These days I just never invest in pre-profit situations, so DPP is a bargepole job for me. I also have absolutely no insight into the market for pizza in Poland.


Investing too early was my mistake. It took the company very long to get to where it is today. The grown has been huge in store estate, revenues and EBITDA, but this has not been reflected for ordinary retail shareholders. The key is to get that transition to sub franchising really going (and it's their strategic objective for 2024) and this has been a real weakness historically. I think they really overlooked the scale they needed to get to in corporate stores. However, they have set a specific goal of 200 stores within three years and a specific proportion being sub franchised, so I would hope they have done so from a position of confidence that they will achieve it. If they did hit 500 stores by 2030 then that is only six years off and would quintuple (almost) the current store estate.

Current turnover is forecast about £50 million for 2024 and the market cap is £90 million represents 1.8 times turnover. In the long term, I would expect that to be more fairly 3-4 times turnover. Also that turnover is growing strongly. In the early days, they said they thought a Polish store could have potential for £80,000 EBITDA per year. I won't adjust that figure for inflation (and perhaps it was too optimistic back then) but 500 stores generating that sort of EBITDA would equate to £40 million a year. Let's say that they got there by 2034. The Polish economy seems to be going great guns. It has potential but has been a perennial diluter.

doug2500 wrote:I first bought DPLM for 338p in 2011 and have added along the way. That recent rise has made it clearly my largest holding rather than 1st=

The only time I sold any was when the new CEO left after only a few months which spooked me a bit. That must have been 2018 I think. It felt, and still does, like the right thing to do at the time, but with hindsight wasn't.

Oh, that the rest of my holdings had been as reliable over the last few years! Diploma and my chunky holding of Fundsmith have been a solid foundation.

I'm not sure that yesterday really warranted a 11% rise from an already decent price but it's definitely worth a premium rating. The problem is only hindsight confirms how much of a premium it deserves, and any company is only a bad RNS away from a big drawdown.

I think Berkshire is another case of where companies are happy selling out to them for a fair price for the reasons mentioned.

Congratulations to Marcus on a very well timed, and sized top up. It feels like I've not made any great decisions for a while now, but that's the way it goes sometimes.


You picked up on DPLM sooner than I did and my purchase in 2012 was substantially more expensive. I remember 2018, but I thought it positive that they realised quickly the new CEO was not the right fit and that they took action. They recognised an issue and addressed it, but it was concerning to a degree at the time.

I make mistakes too, but spend less time discussing them. :lol:

In light of Reckitt's poor performance, which I think I put up with for too long, I decided to get rid: the proceeds went (mostly) into Evolution AB, which is Swedish listed and had recently had a sharp fall as well. It is arguably a much higher quality company on the key financial metrics and much stronger growth is forecast compared to Reckitt. They raised their dividend 32 percent for the past year. The Swedish currency is also historically weak verses the GBP. I topped up DP Poland slightly also.

doug2500 wrote:And one other thing, they've been touted as moving the listing to the US and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I strikes me as a complication I don't need, although I can see how it may cause a short term uplift in price. I guess that wouldn't bother you, Marcus given you already hold US stocks?


Yes, about 22 percent of the portfolio is either in directly held US, Finnish or Swedish stocks so no issue for me. Where was it mentioned that Diploma might move to the US? They have been listed in some form since 1931 in the UK, I believe.

The way things are going, my portfolio will be getting slimmer and more akin to a global tracker. I want greater resilience to dividend cuts, so investment trusts such as Bankers or Brunner may have a good role, with individual companies significantly reduced. They basically behave more like trackers, I think. And then supplemented by higher conviction, quality growth companies.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656725

Postby doug2500 » March 29th, 2024, 7:27 pm

Rumour of DPLM moving listing here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/lon ... 47995.html

It is not much more than rumour though. I'll believe it when sky report it.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656731

Postby BullDog » March 29th, 2024, 7:49 pm

doug2500 wrote:Rumour of DPLM moving listing here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/lon ... 47995.html

It is not much more than rumour though. I'll believe it when sky report it.

Thanks for the information on Diploma, not a company I'm really aware of. I have done OK with Halma shares this year. It seems on the face of it Halma and Diploma have a similar business model? Albeit in different industries.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#656860

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 30th, 2024, 12:35 pm

doug2500 wrote:Rumour of DPLM moving listing here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/lon ... 47995.html

It is not much more than rumour though. I'll believe it when sky report it.


Thanks - and ditto.

It looks likely also that I'll get some Dutch listed shares if Unilever demerges ice cream as expected. I'm not sure how great a proportion that would be out of my current Unilever position - it might be that I wouldn't think it worth hanging onto them, but that would be because of the entity and not its listing domicile.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657026

Postby tjh290633 » March 31st, 2024, 11:50 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Rumour of DPLM moving listing here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/lon ... 47995.html

It is not much more than rumour though. I'll believe it when sky report it.


Thanks - and ditto.

It looks likely also that I'll get some Dutch listed shares if Unilever demerges ice cream as expected. I'm not sure how great a proportion that would be out of my current Unilever position - it might be that I wouldn't think it worth hanging onto them, but that would be because of the entity and not its listing domicile.

Best wishes


Mark.

The question is, will Unilever demerge the ice cream side, or float it and give their shareholders a cash return?

I hope that they will follow the latter route, as I have no desire to be invested where Ben & Jerry have any influence. If they give the shares to their shareholders, I don't think that I will hang on to them.

TJH

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657199

Postby Charlottesquare » April 1st, 2024, 10:51 am

tjh290633 wrote:
ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
Thanks - and ditto.

It looks likely also that I'll get some Dutch listed shares if Unilever demerges ice cream as expected. I'm not sure how great a proportion that would be out of my current Unilever position - it might be that I wouldn't think it worth hanging onto them, but that would be because of the entity and not its listing domicile.

Best wishes


Mark.

The question is, will Unilever demerge the ice cream side, or float it and give their shareholders a cash return?

I hope that they will follow the latter route, as I have no desire to be invested where Ben & Jerry have any influence. If they give the shares to their shareholders, I don't think that I will hang on to them.

TJH


Always liked an ice cream float. :D

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657334

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » April 1st, 2024, 9:42 pm

tjh290633 wrote:The question is, will Unilever demerge the ice cream side, or float it and give their shareholders a cash return?

I hope that they will follow the latter route, as I have no desire to be invested where Ben & Jerry have any influence. If they give the shares to their shareholders, I don't think that I will hang on to them.


I'm not sure when they last did any demerger. Not since 2013, when I've owned them. They could do a sale I suppose, but whether they would get what they wanted is a good question. I thought a demerger more likely and, if so, a Dutch-listed entity (given the broader commitments they gave in 2020)...who knows?

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657397

Postby onslow » April 2nd, 2024, 11:31 am

Do we know why they are considering a Dutch listing for the ice cream spin off?

London/LSE has its issues but surely higher levels of liquidity in London compared to Amsterdam?

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657403

Postby Arborbridge » April 2nd, 2024, 11:37 am

onslow wrote:Do we know why they are considering a Dutch listing for the ice cream spin off?

London/LSE has its issues but surely higher levels of liquidity in London compared to Amsterdam?


Liquid ice cream spinning off - stand clear!

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657478

Postby tjh290633 » April 2nd, 2024, 3:19 pm

onslow wrote:Do we know why they are considering a Dutch listing for the ice cream spin off?

London/LSE has its issues but surely higher levels of liquidity in London compared to Amsterdam?

Maybe it is a gesture, following the abolition of the dual company situation?

TJH

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657517

Postby 77ss » April 2nd, 2024, 5:28 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
onslow wrote:Do we know why they are considering a Dutch listing for the ice cream spin off?

London/LSE has its issues but surely higher levels of liquidity in London compared to Amsterdam?

Maybe it is a gesture, following the abolition of the dual company situation?

TJH


At the time of the botched dual company business:-

....Unilever has committed to discuss further strengthening its F&R activities in the Netherlands and has confirmed that, if there
were ever to be a listing of the F&R business as an independent company, it would be incorporated and listed in the Netherlands.


https://www.government.nl/binaries/gove ... ilever.pdf

Quite how ironclad this is, I don't know.

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Re: ADrunkenMarcus' 'Dividend Growth Portfolio'.

#657519

Postby kempiejon » April 2nd, 2024, 5:35 pm

Perhaps the Unilever board are taking a pessimistic long term view of the UK marketplace for global business?
Anyhow it's speculation for now if it pans out I'd rather have cash than foreign shares. I enjoyed the work of Ben and Jerry though I don't buy ice cream.


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