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Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 22nd, 2022, 6:23 pm
by simoan
monabri wrote:
simoan wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21 6.42 7,384.54 32.61
22-Oct-22 5.74 6,969.73 30.85
-10.67% -5.62% -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?


I don't think it is correct to compare HYP Acc units to the FTSE100. Strip out the dividends paid in the HYP and it might be fairer.

I assumed the Inc Unit performance is the one to compare with the FTSE excluding dividends?

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 22nd, 2022, 7:07 pm
by tjh290633
simoan wrote:
monabri wrote:
simoan wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21 6.42 7,384.54 32.61
22-Oct-22 5.74 6,969.73 30.85
-10.67% -5.62% -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?


I don't think it is correct to compare HYP Acc units to the FTSE100. Strip out the dividends paid in the HYP and it might be fairer.

I assumed the Inc Unit performance is the one to compare with the FTSE excluding dividends?

It is. The accumulation unit shows the effect of reinvesting dividends.

TJH

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 22nd, 2022, 8:57 pm
by Newroad
Hi All.

This related article is interesting: https://www.ft.com/content/406f65f9-8cf3-416f-9171-ea7b8da0348b

With it, it states

    "... Personal portfolios in the US fell 44 per cent between early January and October 18, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase ..."

I'm not sure if this should be interpreted as just losses, or losses plus net withdrawals? Either way, it's pretty significant - but I suspect the former (with the Nasdaq down around 33% and retail investors predisposed moreso to high growth stocks within, which have perhaps suffered the most).

Regards, Newroad

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 23rd, 2022, 1:49 pm
by Wuffle
Article above also says that Interactive Investor UK clients were down 12%.
I am bang on that average but I have an all IT portfolio and within that the poor sentiment has certainly pushed out discounts across my choices.
Indeed, 'Money Makers' website has an interesting chart on the front page of average IT discounts which have moved out about (coincidentally) 12% ytd.

W (still adding, actually accelerating the contributions).

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 24th, 2022, 8:46 am
by dealtn
tjh290633 wrote:
simoan wrote:
monabri wrote:
simoan wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21 6.42 7,384.54 32.61
22-Oct-22 5.74 6,969.73 30.85
-10.67% -5.62% -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?


I don't think it is correct to compare HYP Acc units to the FTSE100. Strip out the dividends paid in the HYP and it might be fairer.

I assumed the Inc Unit performance is the one to compare with the FTSE excluding dividends?

It is. The accumulation unit shows the effect of reinvesting dividends.

TJH


It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 24th, 2022, 9:56 am
by tjh290633
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 24th, 2022, 11:01 am
by dealtn
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH


Agreed, so long as that same process occurs with the benchmark, it being the alternative in which new funds would have been invested in, or withdrawn from.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 7:58 am
by 1nvest
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 8:20 am
by OldPlodder
1nvest wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


There is something wrong here. My wife has held FCIT for longer than that, but since Sep 1997, for example, her XIRR on FCIT is well in excess of 12%.

Plodder

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 8:25 am
by Dod101
1nvest wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


As a closed end fund FCIT will not have money flowing in and out, unlike say an OEIC. That is a fundamental difference between the two.

Dod

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 8:26 am
by Dod101
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH


That of course can be done by using XIRR, but the two are different ways of measuring investment return.

Dod

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 9:05 am
by 1nvest
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


There is something wrong here. My wife has held FCIT for longer than that, but since Sep 1997, for example, her XIRR on FCIT is well in excess of 12%.

Plodder

The FRCL now FCIT data I based the NAV based total return on (extracted from annual reports)....


I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 9:33 am
by OldPlodder
1nvest wrote:
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
dealtn wrote:It should also be clear whether new money has been added (or taken out) when considering portfolio performance against a suitable benchmark.

The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


There is something wrong here. My wife has held FCIT for longer than that, but since Sep 1997, for example, her XIRR on FCIT is well in excess of 12%.

Plodder

The FRCL now FCIT data I based the NAV based total return on (extracted from annual reports)....


I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?


Unlikely. unlike you we understand unitisation, and keep very accurate records. The lady in question worked in the City for twenty years, so her data is correct. She can plot her portfolio, or any subset of it, against TJHs data, she remains well ahead. The main reason is that she does no go near the FTSE, and she only put serious money in it when markets tank, so the time to buy is definitely not always now, as hypers are led to believe.

Regards

Plodder

You seem to be unaware that your comparison between an actual portfolio and an IT is itself flawed.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 9:48 am
by 1nvest
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:The object of unitising is to eliminate the effects of inputs or withdrawals of cash.

TJH

Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


There is something wrong here. My wife has held FCIT for longer than that, but since Sep 1997, for example, her XIRR on FCIT is well in excess of 12%.

Plodder

The FRCL now FCIT data I based the NAV based total return on (extracted from annual reports)....


I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?


Unlikely. unlike you we understand unitisation, and keep very accurate records. The lady in question worked in the City for twenty years, so her data is correct. She can plot her portfolio, or any subset of it, against TJHs data, she remains well ahead. The main reason is that she does no go near the FTSE, and she only put serious money in it when markets tank, so the time to buy is definitely not always now, as hypers are led to believe.

Regards

Plodder

You seem to be unaware that your comparison between an actual portfolio and an IT is itself flawed.

LOL! (Arrogance).

The main reason is that she does no go near the FTSE, and she only put serious money in it when markets tank

That explains it, not accounting for the waiting in time cash whilst timing deployment to only when the market tanks. You shouldn't flame others when you clearly don't understand basics.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 10:20 am
by simoan
Dod101 wrote:As a closed end fund FCIT will not have money flowing in and out, unlike say an OEIC. That is a fundamental difference between the two.

Dod

This is not true because closed-end funds such as IT’s can use gearing. So new money is invested by taking on debt.

Personally I find the whole idea of comparing performance with some external fund or index a bit silly. Without taking into account the risk taken to achieve that performance it is a meaningless comparison. I only sanity check every year end against the All Share because when I can’t beat it for two years running I will just give up and buy some ETFs.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 11:10 am
by Dod101
simoan wrote:
Dod101 wrote:As a closed end fund FCIT will not have money flowing in and out, unlike say an OEIC. That is a fundamental difference between the two.

Dod

This is not true because closed-end funds such as IT’s can use gearing. So new money is invested by taking on debt.



I am well aware of that but in any case they are not adding new debt or retiring it on a daily, weekly or even an annual basis. Before you say anything else on that they buy and sell their own shares from time to time as well which means funds are coming in and going out from time to time.

The key words in my comment were 'unlike say an OEIC' which has to raise funds (which usually means selling ore at least holding cash to meet redemptions). Anyway I am sure you know perfectly well what the terms 'closed end fund' means in relation to ITs and the contrast with OEICs.

Dod

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 11:12 am
by tjh290633
1nvest wrote:I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?

As it happens I have some comparative figures. I began two savings plans for my grandchildren in FCIT, one in June 2003, the other in March 2015. The IRR from those dates are:

From        FCIT IRR   TJH IRR*
27-Jun-03 13.65% 9.33%
02-Mar-15 10.56% 4.65%

* from 1st Month for accumulation units.

FCIT has much more exposure to the US market and also to private equity. My HYP is aimed at income in the UK.

TJH

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 11:25 am
by simoan
Dod101 wrote:I am well aware of that but in any case they are not adding new debt or retiring it on a daily, weekly or even an annual basis. Before you say anything else on that they buy and sell their own shares from time to time as well which means funds are coming in and going out from time to time.

Dod

Yes, of course,they can buy in shares and issue new ones too. However. many IT’s have RCF’s that can be drawn down and invested at short notice, so you’re wrong about the frequency with which they can invest new money to increase gearing. There are so many variables that it is silly to try and make any comparison with your own portfolio. Complete waste of time.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 1:33 pm
by Bagger46
1nvest wrote:
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:
OldPlodder wrote:
1nvest wrote:Funds such as FCIT (Investment Trust) will also have money flowing in/out, so unitisation enables overall total returns (with dividends reinvested) to be compared.

FCIT NAV based total return/accumulation versus TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years 1997 - 2021 inclusive) ...

Image


There is something wrong here. My wife has held FCIT for longer than that, but since Sep 1997, for example, her XIRR on FCIT is well in excess of 12%.

Plodder

The FRCL now FCIT data I based the NAV based total return on (extracted from annual reports)....


I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?


Unlikely. unlike you we understand unitisation, and keep very accurate records. The lady in question worked in the City for twenty years, so her data is correct. She can plot her portfolio, or any subset of it, against TJHs data, she remains well ahead. The main reason is that she does no go near the FTSE, and she only put serious money in it when markets tank, so the time to buy is definitely not always now, as hypers are led to believe.

Regards

Plodder

You seem to be unaware that your comparison between an actual portfolio and an IT is itself flawed.

LOL! (Arrogance).

The main reason is that she does no go near the FTSE, and she only put serious money in it when markets tank

That explains it, not accounting for the waiting in time cash whilst timing deployment to only when the market tanks. You shouldn't flame others when you clearly don't understand basics.


I think it is you who do not understand basics, your opening sentence on Unitisation demonstrates this clearly.
(I any case anybody who bases his core investment philosophy on the Talmud, a you do, cannot be considered a serious investor in today's world/markets scene). Among my many friends of that 'persuasion' none of them do.

Plodder, as usual, is correct. Any investor who invests in, say, an IT such as FCIT, can get results way different from the returns of the IT itself. Some will undershoot it, the bulk will broadly get similar results to the IT, but enough of them, those who are experienced, PATIENT and awake ( and have the freedom to do so, which not all investors do, which unfortunately most retirees taking the income, thus staying mostly invested cannot do), will exceed its returns. If you look at the returns on, say, MRCH, over the last say 36 years, I doubt this IT has returned an average TR of 13.6% P.A., yet that is precisely the XIRR my mother in law has on MRCH over that whole long period, main reasons: experience, massive patience, knowing when to go in heavy or when to take a large slice of profits to feed back in later...

The individual investor has a great advantage on most fund managers, he can decide at a moment's notice to go into much cash, or some can temporarily introduce new funds when they want. It can make a very wide difference to returns. I have known Plodder and his good lady for enough years to know just how nimble they can be with markets, and in the past their businesses dealings. our shared philosophy on investing has worked well for us indeed, yet we have never held a single ounce of your favourite gold!.

Regards

Bagger

PS:The mantra of 'the time to invest is always now' is a sure recipe for banal outcomes at best.

Re: Drop since year end

Posted: October 25th, 2022, 1:36 pm
by OldPlodder
tjh290633 wrote:
1nvest wrote:I'd genuinely be surprised if FCIT had excelled TJH HYP Accumulation by the more than 3% annualised that you suggest!

Comparing those FCIT total returns with MSCI world total returns and the two align reasonably, nowhere near a significant difference, with FCIT marginally out-pacing overall.

I suspect you may have a Beardstown Ladies error such as incorrectly accounting for additions?

As it happens I have some comparative figures. I began two savings plans for my grandchildren in FCIT, one in June 2003, the other in March 2015. The IRR from those dates are:

From        FCIT IRR   TJH IRR*
27-Jun-03 13.65% 9.33%
02-Mar-15 10.56% 4.65%

* from 1st Month for accumulation units.

FCIT has much more exposure to the US market and also to private equity. My HYP is aimed at income in the UK.

TJH


QED