Wizard wrote:So if RE.B pays the deferred divis shortly (market seems to think that is possible given CPO price and recovery in prrf price), is that income this year or last year?
The RE.B dividend was treated as income accrued and zero cashflow last year. I posted some examples recently on how I separate income and cashflow here, viewtopic.php?p=273738#p273738
moorfield wrote:What I term Income (ntm - next twelve months) multiplies number of shares held, including bought ex dividend, by either (i) last dividends paid or (ii) last dividends paid and next dividends announced in the current year, excluding special dividends, and assumes the same will be paid in the next year. It is updated as shares are bought or sold and dividend increases or cuts are announced. This is the figure I use for computing yields and forecasting overall portfolio income. Cashflow should be self-explanatory, and includes special dividends.
Some examples from my own portfolio for this year:
Centrica (CNA) income (ntm) is 9.9p per share (final 8.4p and cut interim 1.5p) and cashflow is the same because no shares were bought or sold. CNA has already announced a dividend of 5p next year, so income (ntm) will be adjusted down to 5p on 1 January.
Imperial Brands (IMB) income (ntm) is 200.02p per share including the 72.00p to be paid on 31 December, accordingly cashflow is currently 128.02p, no shares were bought or sold. IMB has already announced a dividend of 72.01p to be paid in March 2020, so income (ntm) will be adjusted up to 206.57p on 1 January.
REA Holdings (RE.B) has deferred, but not cancelled (yet), it's cumulative dividend. Income (ntm) remains 9.0p per share but cashflow is zero. (If the arrears are paid up next year I might expect a cashflow of 18.0p)
RIO Tinto (RIO) was bought in tranches this year, some ex dividend. Income (ntm) excluding its specials is 259.28p per share but cashflow was higher including the specials paid on the shares bought cum dividend.
TUI (TUI) was bought ex dividend, and pays its dividend once a year, so cashflow this year is zero. It has since announced a 25% dividend cut so income (ntm) will be adjusted down accordingly on 1 January.
Also I see the link to the chart I posted above last year has been dropped but was reposted here, viewtopic.php?p=266580#p266580
moorfield wrote:A strategy of sorts. I may be unique here in extrapolating into the future (to 2031) an income schedule that I want my whole portfolio to be generating each year, through the combined effects of dividend growth and reinvestment. I have posted this chart before on Portfolio Management & Review.
Essentially, If the yellow line falls short of the red line at year end I take that as a cue to reorganise the portfolio. That hasn't happened, yet. My hunch is three full dividend cuts in one year from 20 holdings would certainly necessitate action; the evidence I can offer is that at least four dividend cuts I remember (CNA twice, CLLN, VOD), and associated collapses of capital value, in the last five years hasn't. The trick here with the extrapolation is to use a reasonable growth rate, I use +7.2% pa.
In that respect, this month's tinker of LGEN, AZN and SAN is a pre-emptive one.