The Snowball 2019 - YeeWo's AR

[YeeWo]

Code: Select all

04-Jan-19 | SP     | % PFO | XIRR   | 31-Dec-19 | SP     | % PFO | XIRR    | SP 19+/-
AZN       | £60.89 |  2.6% |  26.3% | AZN       | £76.07 |  3.4% |  29.17% |   24.93%
BP        |  £5.21 |  6.0% |  14.4% | BP        |  £4.72 |  4.4% |  11.36% |   -9.45%
BATS      | £25.83 |  9.3% | -38.2% | BATS      | £32.32 |  4.9% | -19.63% |   25.11%
BLND      |  £5.31 |  3.4% |  -1.0% | BLND      |  £6.39 |  3.8% |   9.49% |   20.30%
CCH       | £24.42 |  2.1% |   5.4% | CCH       | £25.65 |  3.9% |   9.36% |    5.04%
DGE       | £27.41 |  3.7% |  11.8% | DGE       | £32.01 |  7.2% |  12.59% |   16.79%
G4S       |  £2.02 |  4.4% |   8.8% | G4S       |  £2.18 |  3.3% |  10.49% |    8.19%
GSK       | £15.19 |  4.7% |  -0.7% | GSK       | £17.79 |  4.6% |   5.60% |   17.15%
HSBA      |  £6.57 |  4.8% |   9.2% | HSBA      |  £5.92 |  3.6% |   8.60% |   -9.84%
IMB       | £24.53 |  6.7% | -13.8% | IMB       | £18.69 |  2.8% | -17.34% |  -23.79%
INCH      |  £5.55 |  4.0% |  11.9% | INCH      |  £7.06 |  6.4% |  12.55% |   27.21%
IHG       | £42.12 |  3.8% |  -2.2% | IHG       | £52.08 |  3.7% |   9.69% |   23.65%
RB        | £59.64 |  4.3% |  -8.9% | RB        | £61.29 |  4.3% |  -2.45% |    2.77%
REL       | £16.31 |  4.4% |  19.9% | REL       | £19.06 |  6.5% |  20.17% |   16.83%
RIO       | £37.94 |  3.8% |  -2.5% | RIO       | £45.03 |  3.7% |  29.92% |   18.70%
RR        |  £8.26 |  2.6% |   6.1% | RR        |  £6.83 |  2.1% |   4.10% |  -17.27%
RDSB      | £24.00 |  7.6% |  30.2% | RDSB      | £22.40 |  5.9% |  24.74% |   -6.69%
SN        | £14.33 |  5.2% |  11.2% | SN        | £18.33 |  5.8% |  16.49% |   27.92%
TATE      |  £6.73 |  2.0% |   3.4% | TATE      |  £7.60 |  1.8% |  19.69% |   13.02%
ULVR      | £41.52 |  5.6% |  12.1% | ULVR      | £43.51 |  6.5% |  11.86% |    4.78%
VOD       |  £1.58 |  8.6% | -14.8% | VOD       |  £1.47 |  6.6% |  -8.18% |   -7.10%
          |        |       |        |           |        |       |         |         
          |        |       |        | BOUGHT    |        |       |         |         
          |        |       |        | STAN      |  £7.12 |  4.3% |  10.75% |   16.30%


The left of the table is the portfolio on the 4th January 2019, the right on 31st December 2019. The far right column shows the performance of the SP Only (no taking account of dividends!) during the year.

Full ISA allowance used as Additional Capital and all Dividend Income reinvested (*1)

DIVIDENDS
2019 - £15,248.99, 2018 - £11,495.92, 2017 - £9586.05, 2016 - £7317.31, 2015 - £6821.33, 2014 - £6693.64

A synopsis of where by stock my dividend payouts came from (% of Total Income & Stock code): -

Code: Select all

9.26% | VOD  | 3.61% | CCH
8.98% | IMB  | 3.37% | DGE
8.88% | RIO  | 3.19% | REL
8.46% | BATS | 3.18% | G4S
8.41% | RDSB | 2.73% | BLND
6.28% | BP   | 2.27% | RB 
5.27% | INCH | 1.86% | AZN
5.19% | HSBA | 1.57% | SN 
4.92% | IHG  | 1.56% | TATE
4.64% | ULVR | 1.34% | STAN
4.46% | GSK  | 0.54% | RR 


2019 saw many "Specials" which flattered the total dividend figure. Even taking into account additional capital, it may be hard to achieve the same amount of dividend payout in 2020!

YIELD - 4.59% based upon total cash payouts received relative to capital value at year end.

VALUE INCREASE - 12.04% Including Added Cash contributions, 7.46% Including Dividends received and Added Cash, 18.13% Total Gain in Net Worth.

COMMENTARY
Overall Stock performance was Far Better in 2019 than 2018: -

Code: Select all

SN   | 27.92% | G4S  |   8.19%
INCH | 27.21% | CCH  |   5.04%
BATS | 25.11% | ULVR |   4.78%
AZN  | 24.93% | RB   |   2.77%
IHG  | 23.65% | RDSB |  -6.69%
BLND | 20.30% | VOD  |  -7.10%
RIO  | 18.70% | BP   |  -9.45%
GSK  | 17.15% | HSBA |  -9.84%
REL  | 16.83% | RR   | -17.27%
DGE  | 16.79% | IMB  | -23.79%
TATE | 13.02% |      |       


The, hopefully, cyclical issues with Oil explain RDSB & BP. Vodafone's issues are well documented and are being addressed. That BAT managed to climb 25.11% while Imperial FELL -23.79% probably explains the departure of Alison Cooper. Value Act have now departed the board of Rolls Royce which makes Mr Market worry that the American Activists are going to sell their 8% holding, we shall see! HSBC is, and always has been, heavily dependant on Hongkong which is rapidly descending into anarchy. I desperately hope Hongkong finds a political solution and the economy motors ahead as it always has, very soon.

No Disposals during the year

New holdings during the year :
I bought three slugs of StanChart 22/01 @ £6.18, 10/06 @ £7.06 & 29/07 @ £6.91. Bill Winters is cleaning the stables thoroughly, the recent disposal of the 45% stake in Bank Permata in Indonesia to Bangkok Bank has been achieved at a fulsome price and should fund more buybacks!

Stock Tip for 2020
Last years tips first : BAT gained 25.11% , Inchcape gained 27.21% , Vodafone LOST -7%
(So perhaps I shouldn’t hold too much weight to this and neither should you!) However: -
HSBC (£5.91) is worth buying for the dividend and potential SP recovery.
Rolls Royce (£6.83) is worth buying for SP recovery.

Happy New Year and Good Luck to all in 2020!

(*1) I did a short-term trade in RDSB stock which Lost me a minimal amount (£226.32), I've accounted for this as-if a contribution!

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Thanks for this YeeWo,

I'm very impressed by your ability to calculated IRRs for each of your holdings and admire your long term views on each.

Matt

[monabri]

Thanks for this YeeWo,

I'm very impressed by your ability to calculated IRRs for each of your holdings and admire your long term views on each.

Matt

XIRR function in Excel facilitates the job.

2 minute video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imMecSjIQcQ

[YeeWo]

%P = % of Portfolio

Code: Select all

     | 03-Jan | %P   | XIRR    | 28-Feb | %P   | XIRR    | YTD SP +/-
RDSB | £23.07 | 6.0% |  25.22% | £16.64 | 4.7% |  19.39% |    -27.87%
STAN |  £7.21 | 4.3% |  12.54% |  £5.63 | 3.6% | -19.80% |    -21.95%
BLND |  £6.30 | 3.8% |   9.04% |  £5.01 | 3.2% |   1.07% |    -20.45%
RIO  | £45.04 | 3.7% |  29.94% | £36.08 | 5.8% |   6.98% |    -19.89%
BP   |  £4.94 | 4.6% |  12.15% |  £3.96 | 4.0% |   8.24% |    -19.82%
G4S  |  £2.13 | 3.2% |   9.77% |  £1.71 | 2.8% |   3.06% |    -19.72%
INCH |  £7.14 | 6.4% |  12.60% |  £5.77 | 5.6% |  12.15% |    -19.19%
IMB  | £19.22 | 2.9% | -16.67% | £15.55 | 2.5% | -20.49% |    -19.11%
IHG  | £51.89 | 3.7% |   9.48% | £43.02 | 3.3% |   0.62% |    -17.09%
DGE  | £31.90 | 7.1% |  12.54% | £27.66 | 6.7% |  10.70% |    -13.29%
GSK  | £17.84 | 4.5% |   5.68% | £15.62 | 4.3% |   2.05% |    -12.45%
HSBA |  £5.94 | 3.5% |   8.62% |  £5.24 | 4.0% |   7.89% |    -11.86%
AZN  | £77.00 | 3.4% |  29.73% | £67.94 | 3.3% |  21.34% |    -11.77%
VOD  |  £1.48 | 6.6% |  -7.85% |  £1.34 | 6.5% |  -9.81% |     -9.18%
BATS | £33.52 | 5.0% | -17.98% | £30.63 | 5.0% | -19.72% |     -8.64%
RR   |  £6.78 | 2.0% |   4.00% |  £6.20 | 5.0% |   1.29% |     -8.53%
TATE |  £7.70 | 1.9% |  22.38% |  £7.06 | 1.8% |  12.82% |     -8.32%
RB   | £61.91 | 4.3% |  -1.95% | £57.21 | 4.3% |  -5.33% |     -7.59%
SN   | £18.47 | 5.8% |  16.74% | £17.39 | 5.9% |  13.69% |     -5.85%
CCH  | £26.05 | 3.9% |  10.48% | £24.74 | 4.0% |   5.90% |     -5.03%
ULVR | £43.57 | 6.5% |  11.87% | £41.70 | 6.7% |  11.28% |     -4.29%
REL  | £19.10 | 6.4% |  20.18% | £18.68 | 6.8% |  19.76% |     -2.23%


- YTD -12.49% (including Dividends received).
- Every component of the portfolio has fallen........
- HSBC topped up 13 Jan @ 589p
- Inchcape, halved the holding 13 Jan @ 697p, added new money to buy the same shares back to double the holding 27 Feb @ 563p.
- Rio Tinto added new money to double holding 28 Feb @ 3540p.
- Rolls Royce, added 07 Jan @ 665p, added again 13 Jan @ 676p with disposal money from Inchcape. Mr Market seemed to like Rolls Royce' results yesterday and the SP hasn't been as-battered as many others given the global chaos.
- RDSB I became an RDSB holder through the BG takeover so I have a decent margin of safety. Top Up candidate @ 1664p?
I've written the above as much for my own record as community consumption. Batten down the hatches, this will pass!
Good Luck All........

[monabri]

Just had a look on my spreadsheet..I'm down 14.2% YTD inc divis... (Un)Funny how things can turn so quickly!

[77ss]

....
- Every component of the portfolio has fallen........
.....

And yet some have clearly done significantly better than (e.g.) the FT100. I have my eye on two of your holdings (CCH & RELX), so was interested in seeing how they had done.

Most of my holdings have also fallen, with the conspicuous exception of my utilities (NG, PNN, SSE) which have actually risen YTD.

[tjh290633]

My experience differs from yours:

Epic   Change    Yield 
BA.      7.72%    3.81%
SSE      6.29%    5.23%
TW.      4.55%    9.21%
NG.      4.08%    4.87%
UU.      0.08%    4.42%
ULVR    -4.15%    3.42%
BATS    -5.23%    6.87%
RB.     -6.66%    3.05%
TATE    -7.18%    4.20%
VOD     -8.44%    5.60%
SGRO    -8.47%    2.52%
ADM     -8.53%    6.11%
CPG     -9.50%    2.34%
TSCO   -10.46%    2.95%
AZN    -10.69%    3.21%
GSK    -12.19%    5.12%
PSON   -12.46%    3.50%
KGF    -12.74%    5.71%
DGE    -13.59%    2.53%
LGEN   -14.19%    6.44%
IMI    -14.67%    4.09%
BP.    -16.00%    8.16%
AV.    -16.22%    8.62%
IMB    -16.81%   13.29%
SMDS   -18.22%    5.22%
LLOY   -19.68%    8.49%
RIO    -19.88%    9.72%
BHP    -20.17%    7.97%
WMH    -21.01%    5.37%
BLND   -21.57%    6.28%
S32    -22.44%    3.63%
RDSB   -25.72%    8.83%
MKS    -25.81%    6.94%
BT.A   -26.41%   10.87%
MARS   -29.21%    8.33%

You will note that 5 of mine have actually still risen since the start of the year, and the range of falls is down to nearly 30%.

The change in the FTSE100 since the beginning of the year is -12.75%. The portfoliom change is -11.84%.

TJH

[andyalan10]

Thanks all for posting ytd figures.

Mine look slightly worse than any of you, but I am overweight oil with a dollop of airlines. They can't both go down at the same time can they???

If markets continue to fall I may be looking at moving some money from utilities to other sectors. Tjh's list has put Marstons onto my watch list having been out of brewers since GNK was disposed of last year.

Andy

[Dod101]

The best thing to do in the current conditions is nothing. Just sit tight and let things wash over. In six months or a year it will blend in to the background.

Dod

[YeeWo]

.....| 03-Jan | %P   | XIRR    | 17-Apr | %P   | XIRR    | YTD     | COMMENTARY                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
RR   |  £6.78 | 2.0% |   4.00% |  £3.35 | 3.2% | -23.85% | -50.65% | Topped up in Jan @ £6+ will sit this out.           |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
G4S  |  £2.13 | 3.2% |   9.77% |  £1.07 | 0.0% | -76.14% | -49.88% | Sold out 16 Apr, too much debt for downturn         |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
JDW  | £16.76 |      |         |  £8.52 | 1.9% |   2.46% | -49.16% | Bought ab intio 16 Apr @ £8.40                      |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
RDSB | £23.07 | 6.0% |  25.22% | £13.43 | 4.4% |  16.77% | -41.76% | Didn’t add @ <£10!   May top-up later in '20.       |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
AV   |  £4.19 |      |         |  £2.48 | 2.3% | *1      | -40.92% | Bought ab intio 16 Apr @ £2.38                      |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
BP   |  £4.94 | 4.6% |  12.15% |  £3.04 | 4.2% |   4.56% | -38.56% | Topped up 16 Apr @ £2.93.                           |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
BLND |  £6.30 | 3.8% |   9.04% |  £3.90 | 4.4% |  -6.06% | -38.15% | Topped up 16 Apr @ £3.70.                           |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
STAN |  £7.21 | 4.3% |  12.54% |  £4.51 | 0.0% | -51.69% | -37.44% | Sold out 16 Apr.  China trade and bad debt worries. |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
IHG  | £51.89 | 3.7% |   9.48% | £35.63 | 4.9% |  -5.03% | -31.34% | Topped up 16 Apr @ £32.39.                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
INCH |  £7.14 | 6.4% |  12.60% |  £5.05 | 3.2% |  11.95% | -29.34% | Well timed trim 13 Jan @ £6.97                      |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
HSBA |  £5.94 | 3.5% |   8.62% |  £4.29 | 0.0% |   6.62% | -27.85% | After 15+ years sold out 16 Apr as per StanChart.   |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
VOD  |  £1.48 | 6.6% |  -7.85% |  £1.09 | 6.2% | -15.86% | -26.40% | No action since 26 Jul 19.                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
CCH  | £26.05 | 3.9% |  10.48% | £20.05 | 4.3% |  -7.44% | -23.03% | Topped up 16 Apr @ £19.41.                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
IMB  | £19.22 | 2.9% | -16.67% | £15.65 | 3.0% | -18.90% | -18.61% | Impressive New CEO far far too cheap……..            |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
SN   | £18.47 | 5.8% |  16.74% | £15.41 | 6.1% |   8.99% | -16.57% | No action since 21 Oct 19.   A possible BUY?        |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
PZC  |  £2.09 |      |         |  £1.77 | 1.9% |   0.58% | -15.20% | Bought ab initio 16 Apr @ £1.75                     |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
DGE  | £31.90 | 7.1% |  12.54% | £27.11 | 7.7% |  10.43% | -15.00% | No action since 25 Jan 19.                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
RIO  | £45.04 | 3.7% |  29.94% | £38.44 | 4.0% |  22.57% | -14.65% | Day-trade profit Feb/Mar.  Overall position same.   |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
BATS | £33.52 | 5.0% | -17.98% | £29.44 | 5.6% | -20.08% | -12.19% | No action since Oct 19.   A possible BUY?           |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
TATE |  £7.70 | 1.9% |  22.38% |  £6.83 | 3.9% |   6.96% | -11.20% | Near doubled holding 16 Apr @ £6.67.                |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
GSK  | £17.84 | 4.5% |   5.68% | £16.61 | 5.3% |   3.22% |  -6.94% | No action since Apr 18.  Awaiting demerge detail.   |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
ULVR | £43.57 | 6.5% |  11.87% | £41.15 | 7.8% |  11.11% |  -5.55% | No action since Jan 19.  U has had a good war!!     |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
REL  | £19.10 | 6.4% |  20.18% | £18.39 | 7.8% |  19.44% |  -3.72% | CAGR of 19%+ a "forever" for me.                    |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
RB   | £61.91 | 4.3% |  -1.95% | £62.48 | 5.4% |  -1.32% |   0.92% | A possible BUY?                                     |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |                                                                                         
AZN  | £77.00 | 3.4% |  29.73% | £79.70 | 4.5% |  28.64% |   3.51% | CAGR of 28%+ as per RELX!                           |                                                                                          |                                                                                          |

- YTD -30.27% (including Dividends received).
- RB and AZN are at least now positive YTD.
- The sale of HSBC was at a chunky long term profit 6% CAGR over 15 years. StanChart and G4S were at a loss, they had to go.
- Bank shares without dividend payments serve no function whatsoever in the current devastation.
- Glad to add Aviva, PZ Cussons and JD Weatherspoons. Fingers crossed. (*1) A 3% overnight gain makes Aviva''s XIRR meaningless.
- How the world has completely changed in 6 weeks!
- This post is as much for my own record as community consumption. Good luck all, please Stay Safe & Stay Indoors.

[Wasron]

Interesting to see your commentary on each holding.

I’d quite like another defensive holding and have been tracking Diageo and Coca Cola HBC.

Coke has the edge for me at present, with similar yields but having the much lower PE, for what is a world class brand.

Do you have a view?

Wasron