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TJH Financial Year end

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
tjh290633
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TJH Financial Year end

#297863

Postby tjh290633 » April 4th, 2020, 9:19 pm

My portfolio records for each financial year since 1987-8 are:

.            Income Units              Accumulation                  April       
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value FT30 FT100 RPI RPI
21-Apr-87 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.018 1.00
05-Apr-88 0.91 2.86 0.94 0.92 0.91 1.058 1.04
05-Apr-89 1.18 2.72 1.28 1.10 1.05 1.143 1.12
05-Apr-90 1.21 4.24 1.40 1.13 1.14 1.251 1.23
05-Apr-91 1.34 5.42 1.69 1.28 1.26 1.331 1.31
05-Apr-92 1.30 7.52 1.75 1.24 1.26 1.388 1.36
05-Apr-93 1.51 6.91 2.13 1.44 1.46 1.406 1.38
05-Apr-94 1.70 6.27 2.50 1.65 1.65 1.442 1.42
05-Apr-95 1.66 7.48 2.55 1.57 1.62 1.490 1.46
05-Apr-96 1.95 7.38 3.13 1.80 1.90 1.526 1.50
05-Apr-97 2.16 8.40 3.62 1.85 2.21 1.563 1.54
05-Apr-98 3.31 10.00 5.72 2.45 3.05 1.626 1.60
05-Apr-99 3.44 8.46 6.12 2.47 3.21 1.652 1.62
05-Apr-00 3.32 11.33 6.13 2.42 3.35 1.701 1.67
05-Apr-01 3.29 12.42 6.32 2.05 2.89 1.731 1.70
05-Apr-02 3.37 13.02 6.76 1.65 2.69 1.757 1.73
05-Apr-03 2.29 12.10 4.85 0.85 1.85 1.812 1.78
05-Apr-04 2.92 13.38 6.56 1.22 2.25 1.857 1.82
05-Apr-05 3.46 13.06 8.10 1.33 2.51 1.916 1.88
05-Apr-06 4.30 17.42 10.57 1.68 3.06 1.965 1.93
05-Apr-07 4.91 19.42 12.63 1.90 3.31 2.054 2.02
05-Apr-08 4.14 24.32 11.21 1.58 2.93 2.140 2.10
05-Apr-09 2.28 21.17 6.46 0.87 2.01 2.115 2.08
05-Apr-10 3.69 11.06 10.86 1.33 2.91 2.228 2.19
05-Apr-11 4.16 16.71 12.76 1.43 3.03 2.344 2.30
05-Apr-12 4.40 17.73 14.19 1.33 2.96 2.408 2.37
05-Apr-13 5.27 21.83 17.01 1.54 3.29 2.476 2.43
05-Apr-14 5.34 23.05 18.88 1.75 3.38 2.557 2.51
05-Apr-15 5.91 24.98 21.84 1.91 3.47 2.580 2.53
05-Apr-16 5.92 22.67 21.72 1.79 3.17 2.614 2.57
05-Apr-17 6.62 26.21 25.47 2.10 3.76 2.706 2.66
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 24.66 1.79 3.62 2.797 2.75
05-Apr-19 6.35 31.25 27.04 2.10 3.82 2.856 2.81
05-Apr-20 4.50 31.57 20.59 2.10 2.77 2.895 2.84


That's the bare bones of it.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#297934

Postby 1nvest » April 5th, 2020, 10:23 am


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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#297945

Postby tjh290633 » April 5th, 2020, 10:48 am

1nvest wrote:
Thank you 1nvest. Not an index which I follow as most of my shares are in the FTSE100. I do follow the HIX, but do not put it in my spreadsheets.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#297955

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » April 5th, 2020, 11:13 am

tjh290633 wrote:My portfolio records for each financial year since 1987-8 are:

.            Income Units              Accumulation                  April       
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value FT30 FT100 RPI RPI

...

05-Apr-14 5.34 23.05 18.88 1.75 3.38 2.557 2.51
05-Apr-15 5.91 24.98 21.84 1.91 3.47 2.580 2.53
05-Apr-16 5.92 22.67 21.72 1.79 3.17 2.614 2.57
05-Apr-17 6.62 26.21 25.47 2.10 3.76 2.706 2.66
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 24.66 1.79 3.62 2.797 2.75
05-Apr-19 6.35 31.25 27.04 2.10 3.82 2.856 2.81
05-Apr-20 4.50 31.57 20.59 2.10 2.77 2.895 2.84


That's the bare bones of it.


Thanks for sharing TJH, I appreciate the detailed records you keep and you sharing them with us.

Data such as this really helps to get a long term perspective. Even with all the recent talk of 'meltdown', 'carnage' or whatever fatalistic phrasing is used to convey recent falls in the markets, equity investing is a long term game and we can see from your accumulation unit price that it is still above the 5 April 2014 level and not substantially down on 5 April 2015. You are also invested in UK equities which makes the performance more impressive.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#299737

Postby 1nvest » April 10th, 2020, 10:48 pm

Terry, I have a theory that a 50/50 stock/gold barbell is like a long dated/short dated Gilt barbell, it combines to a central 'bond bullet' type holding. Another theory is that stocks are like a leveraged holding, with a broad average of around 1.5x (50% of stock book-value issued in Corporate Bonds (debt)). Leverage broadly serves little purpose other than scaling up the volatility, tending to produce comparable broad rewards as the non-leveraged with more zigzagging around along the way. Pulling that altogether and 67/33 stock/bond is a form of de-leveraging stocks down from 1.5x to 1.0x. If we swap out 33 bonds for a 50/50 stock/gold combination instead then you end up at around 84/16 stock/gold.

As 1.5x stock is more volatile than 1.0x stock its natural to anticipate the leveraged holding zigzagging around the non leveraged, more often rising above (zigging) to periodically zag back down again to the 1.0x

Applying that to your Accumulation portfolio values ...

Fiscal year gold gains (based on LMBA fiscal year end 3pm price fixes)


Image
Image
When the 1.5x leveraged form (all stock) zags back down to the 1.0x non leveraged (84/16) its usually a sign that stock prices are relatively low, a time to potentially consider deploying gold into stock (leverage up the stock exposure), and then later when 1.5x has zigged back up again to look to reduce stock to top up on (replenish) gold again.

All just a theory that I thought I'd share with you here in having run the calculations/produced the charts, rather than not.


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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#299746

Postby 1nvest » April 11th, 2020, 1:55 am

My table in the previous post wasn't formatted correctly, should read as per the following (year column was misaligned).

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#299839

Postby 1nvest » April 11th, 2020, 12:01 pm

Digging out some historic data, these are all to end of March years excepting TJH Accumulation which is to 5th April fiscal years. FT250 total return is a regressed index as it wasn't marketed until the mid 1990's. FT All Share and FT100 are much the same, something like 90% FT100 and 10% FT250 will pretty much replicate the FT All Share.



Plotting the total returns ...

Image

Looks like TJH Accumulation achieved a 'kicker' in fiscal year to 1998 and FT250 saw a kicker from between 2003 and 2007. Interesting for me is how seemingly single isolated events, perhaps driven by single/few cases can make a significant difference to overall portfolio reward outcomes. What occurs one way however also likely can occur in the other direction, single case outcomes could weigh down the whole.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#299923

Postby tjh290633 » April 11th, 2020, 4:56 pm

1nvest wrote:Looks like TJH Accumulation achieved a 'kicker' in fiscal year to 1998 and FT250 saw a kicker from between 2003 and 2007. Interesting for me is how seemingly single isolated events, perhaps driven by single/few cases can make a significant difference to overall portfolio reward outcomes. What occurs one way however also likely can occur in the other direction, single case outcomes could weigh down the whole.


Thanks, 1nvest. I have just had a look at my records for that time. One or two factors emerge. First I received shares in Halifax through demutualisation at zero cost. Second, The Energy Group was taken over in July 1998 not long after splitting off from Hanson, and was replaced by Scottish Power. Third, I had added Tesco in 1997 and Whitbread in 1998, both of which may have helped. Finally and later, GEC morphed into Marconi with a side order of BAE Systems in November 1999.

Earlier in 1997, I had occasion to trim back Lloyds TSB and Zeneca, both of which had shot past 10% of the portfolio by value, and I decided to set a limit on weight of any one holding. The proceeds went into bringing Hanson and its demerged children up to weight, with quite a bit going into the then Imperial Tobacco.

Which, if any of these, led to the movement that you observe, I cannot tell.

An interesting piece of work, very little of which I understand, I fear.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301047

Postby Arborbridge » April 16th, 2020, 10:27 am

1nvest's comparisons are really interesting, but are they a little beside the point?
What I mean is that TJH's drive is for income, as is mine, whereas 1nvest seems more concerned with TR, which TJH's portfolio was never about - or at least AIUI, that is a secondary issue.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to have such a series to help people if the are "pot building" - to see what can be done by TJH's method.

Arb.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301066

Postby tjh290633 » April 16th, 2020, 11:46 am

Perhaps the point is that, although I was investing for income, I did not draw much of it and so I got TR by default. My argument has always been that for much of the time that gave a better TR than aiming fior it specifically.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301123

Postby 1nvest » April 16th, 2020, 3:45 pm

Arborbridge wrote:1nvest's comparisons are really interesting, but are they a little beside the point?
What I mean is that TJH's drive is for income, as is mine, whereas 1nvest seems more concerned with TR, which TJH's portfolio was never about - or at least AIUI, that is a secondary issue.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to have such a series to help people if the are "pot building" - to see what can be done by TJH's method.

Arb.

Most people will ultimately be looking for income generation (retirement). Take the same 'dividend' (withdrawal amount) from total return as another receives in actual dividends and for income they're identical. Yes of the two I prefer to define my own dividend amount and timing by selling down some of total return rather than having dividend amounts and timing dictated to me. In order to compare such portfolios you can either compare the capital growth of the remainder after the same amount of dividends were drawn, or simply compare the total returns. That is the fairer measure. In practice I use a SWR for income, as that provides a consistent/stable inflation adjusted income year after year. In contrast spending dividends can see considerable swings in those dividends.

A feature of SWR is that you can supplement it with top slicing additional real gains as and when they are apparent into a cash account, and use discretion to draw down that cash account. A SWR to cover basic expenses, supplemented with spending on niceties sourced out of top slicing when the portfolio had performed relatively well. Which is a form of cutting dividends when prices are down, paying out enhanced dividends when prices have risen. In contrast when others define the amount and timing of dividends paid, they'll still look to pay out even when prices are down. For me that's a element of 'sell-low' which I personally look to avoid.

Yet another factor is that I diversify more broadly, including for example some US stock exposure (S&P500 index fund). Inside a ISA dividends paid in $ would be converted to £, and if I were reinvesting some/all of those dividends it would be reconverted back from £ to $ again. With a accumulation S&P500 fund only the amount of actual 'self defined' dividends drawn are currency converted - and more often I look to keep that low and instead draw 'dividends' from non-ISA holdings as I'd rather my ISA expanded in value. With own-dividends you're less confined as to the universe of assets you might hold, less concerned about what dividends might be paid by assets.

Fundamentally however the objective is the same, to see rising 'dividends' (income) over time.

Here's a crude US example, https://tinyurl.com/y9hzh7m3 50/50 Berkshire Hathaway and Gold, neither of which pays any dividends. A 300K investment amount at the start of 2005 (furthest the history goes back), with a inflation adjusted 4% of start date portfolio amount drawn each year (12K/year inflation adjusted SWR). The indications from that being that the remainder of the portfolio grew at a 4.47% annualised real rate of return.

Image

Some (or even all) of those real gains might have been top sliced into a cash account for additional drawdown/spending. i.e. the combined SWR and real gain withdrawals could have combined to nearly 8.5% whilst the remainder portfolio value increased with inflation. That was for a US investor ($ and US inflation rate). As a UK investor holding US$ over that period also saw nearly a 50% gain (46.7%) in currency benefit due to the Pound declining (additional 2.6% annualised benefit). Comparing that however such as with Terry's portfolio is more easily achieved by converting to Pounds and comparing total returns, or by drawing the same amount of dividends and comparing the remainder capital valuations. Without doing that however, but instead just simply looking at the above image that indicates 300K grew to 780K after the 4% SWR was drawn, and factoring in that the $/£ currency element added a further 1.467 gain factor to that = $780K final value = 1144 which relative to the 300 start date amount = 3.8 times more. Which is around the same or more than what TJH Accum increased by from April 2005 to April 2019. Or simply, from a income perspective, it looked like that provided around 4%/year more potential income than the TJH portfolio.

Thanks to Terry posting his results as that opens up running such comparisons which can be useful, for me for instance it is suggestive that recent comparisons are indicating it may be a good time to reduce US $ stock/gold and add to UK stock (£). Ultimately however the objective is the same, to achieve sufficient/reasonable amounts of income in whatever manner you best prefer.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301128

Postby Arborbridge » April 16th, 2020, 4:01 pm

My goodness, 1nvest - you do like to make your life complicated. Each to his own - best of luck to you, but I'll stick with my simple methods, rather than one which blinds me (and quite a few others, I suspect) with science. :)


Arb.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301131

Postby kempiejon » April 16th, 2020, 4:20 pm

1nvest wrote:A feature of SWR is that you can supplement it with top slicing additional real gains as and when they are apparent into a cash account, and use discretion to draw down that cash account. A SWR to cover basic expenses, supplemented with spending on niceties sourced out of top slicing when the portfolio had performed relatively well. Which is a form of cutting dividends when prices are down, paying out enhanced dividends when prices have risen. In contrast when others define the amount and timing of dividends paid, they'll still look to pay out even when prices are down. For me that's a element of 'sell-low' which I personally look to avoid.


Hey 1nvest following on from discussion on another thread when selling down those gains into a holding account at what level do you run the holding account up to say as a ratio of that annual withdrawal amount or of portfolio value. Would you then re-invest any cash surplus back into the portfolio or treat those extra a bonuses and spend them down. I use a cash account to smooth my withdrawal from the portfolio so I stay fully invested, I also harvest capital when moving between unsheltered and sheltered accounts but I then redirect all that profit back into the portfolio.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301168

Postby 1nvest » April 16th, 2020, 9:05 pm

kempiejon wrote:Hey 1nvest following on from discussion on another thread when selling down those gains into a holding account at what level do you run the holding account up to say as a ratio of that annual withdrawal amount or of portfolio value. Would you then re-invest any cash surplus back into the portfolio or treat those extra a bonuses and spend them down. I use a cash account to smooth my withdrawal from the portfolio so I stay fully invested, I also harvest capital when moving between unsheltered and sheltered accounts but I then redirect all that profit back into the portfolio.

The tendency is to accumulate a lot of cash for discretionary spending, and when 'excessive' what I've done is to reinvest at lows along with setting a new lower SWR that yields the same £ SWR value. Lowering SWR % is a great way to better ensure success. I'm at a <2% SWR iteration - which has a very high prospect of being a PWR (perpetual). And another 'too much' current cash situation that I'm looking to reinvest during the current declines that will lower it even further - so thereafter likely I'll be gifting a lot more as securing a relatively secure situation even further would be pointless. Divided the amount to be reinvested by 6 and using a monthly purchase plan for that (first was at the end of March). If the market spikes back up before all 6 have been deployed then I'll just leave the uninvested amounts in cash.

So more a case of as/when opportunities present rather than at a set % amount. 2003/2009/current naturally looked appropriate times. Didn't hit the bottoms, rather just content to have averaged more in at around those lows.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301451

Postby 1nvest » April 17th, 2020, 10:22 pm

Arborbridge wrote:My goodness, 1nvest - you do like to make your life complicated. Each to his own - best of luck to you, but I'll stick with my simple methods, rather than one which blinds me (and quite a few others, I suspect) with science. :) Arb.

Needn't be complicated. Take for instance a yearly rebalanced 67/33 asset allocation of Berkshire Hathaway - that pays no dividends, and gold - that pays no dividends. Rebalancing at the end of March each year back to 67/33 weightings.

Compare that with TJH Accumulation - i.e. all dividends reinvested (that's reviewed/reported around 5 days later each year i.e. fiscal years, which broadly wouldn't be that much different)

Image

Log scaled growth lines
Image

If you took the exact same income each year, either indirectly as via individual stocks paying dividends, or as a once yearly (or monthly/weekly/whatever) amount (in practice its best to do that when you rebalance the portfolio back to 67/33 weightings) and the residual growth lines would still look similar, just they'd be lower due to having removed some value periodically (dividends).

Firms that pay dividends see their book values decline by the amount of dividends paid. They could as equally have just bought some of their own shares back such that there were fewer shares in issue and the remainder shares would rise in price in reflection of that. It would be better if firms paid a dividend when prices were high, bought back shares when prices were low. There is however a fixation with firms paying the same or more in dividends year on year. The other factor is that dividends are paid when they decide, and to the amounts they decide, which isn't ideal for all investors, fits few/none well. If investors form their own dividends - by selling some shares, to the amount and timing of their own choice then that fits better.

My approach towards taking 'dividends' (selling shares) is to look to take more when prices are high, little or none when prices are low - and even add some more holdings when prices are low. But you could just draw the same as what others were being paid in dividends and endure the lag that can induce due to taking too little when prices were high and still being paid a dividend when prices were low (a form of removing some value at a time when valuations are relatively low).

For me, dividends are a pain, as I have to record keep and look up/tally those at Self Assessment time. They're also a potential taxable event. No dividends - easy to report. And we each have a yearly £12,300 of capital gains tax allowance so even if the share price had doubled I could sell £24,600 of stock value to provide a dividend without any capital gains tax falling due. And that still leaves the £12,500 of yearly personal income tax allowance.

Some years ago I was tax audited by HMRC and it dragged on for months with every penny having to be accurately reported. Came out with a clean bill of tax/financial health in the end, but my recording wasn't (and still isn't) as good as Terry's. Fortunately I did have paper copies filed away (in stacks) of accounts screenshot copies going back years - which filled the demands by HMRC (or rather back then HMRC were outsourcing investigations), which were a god send given the loss of old hard disks and having changed brokers etc.

Dividends to me are a uncompensated risk, a potential liability, added complexity. But simplicity is relative - correlated to familiarity.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301455

Postby tjh290633 » April 17th, 2020, 10:44 pm

1nvest wrote:For me, dividends are a pain, as I have to record keep and look up/tally those at Self Assessment time. They're also a potential taxable event. No dividends - easy to report. And we each have a yearly £12,300 of capital gains tax allowance so even if the share price had doubled I could sell £24,600 of stock value to provide a dividend without any capital gains tax falling due. And that still leaves the £12,500 of yearly personal income tax allowance.

That's the advantage of having it all in an ISA. CGT is a pain, even if not as bad as it was some years ago. I supect that my calculations languish on a disc from a BBC Model B. Either that or a 5.25" disc from an Amstrad PC.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301459

Postby 1nvest » April 17th, 2020, 10:59 pm

tjh290633 wrote:That's the advantage of having it all in an ISA. CGT is a pain, even if not as bad as it was some years ago. I supect that my calculations languish on a disc from a BBC Model B. Either that or a 5.25" disc from an Amstrad PC.

TJH

At your age Terry, surprised it wasn't a 8" floppy, or even cassette tapes, or paper punch cards .... or come to that - tally sticks :lol: (Sorry).

For us young-an's who hadn't accumulated into PEP's or even were late into ISA's, its been slow to build up the tax efficient side. The more recent increases to £20K/year however is a great help, but still slowish when £20K is relatively small.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301476

Postby Arborbridge » April 18th, 2020, 7:24 am

1nvest wrote:Needn't be complicated. Take for instance a yearly rebalanced 67/33 asset allocation of Berkshire Hathaway - that pays no dividends, and gold - that pays no dividends. Rebalancing at the end of March each year back to 67/33 weightings.

Compare that with TJH Accumulation - i.e. all dividends reinvested (that's reviewed/reported around 5 days later each year i.e. fiscal years, which broadly wouldn't be that much different)

Image

Log scaled growth lines
Image

If you took the exact same income each year, either indirectly as via individual stocks paying dividends, or as a once yearly (or monthly/weekly/whatever) amount (in practice its best to do that when you rebalance the portfolio back to 67/33 weightings) and the residual growth lines would still look similar, just they'd be lower due to having removed some value periodically (dividends).



Thanks for taking the trouble to explain all that. At one time, I did run some dummy portfolios based on something similar, but not with BRK. Perhaps the BRK bit is the secret!
In my time, I've tried all sorts of different investment ideas as "dummies" but in general, when I tried them for real they did not amount to much. The only one which has sustained me and worked well enough was HYP, so that's how I got to where I am today.

Ironically, I am thinking of drawing down some capital from a couple of growth funds to help in the current situation, but I have to say it hurts every time I find myself thinking of selling down my capital - even if it's gained a lot.

BTW, all my income investments are in tax shelters, so I don't have any bother with HMRC - for me that "downside" of income investing is always a red herring.

Time to reconsider? Maybe I am too set in my ways, and don't have too many economic cycles left in me to ride the hills and troughs. Not only that: after years of not putting my eggs in one basket, I am wary of backing just one company, BRK, plus gold which I've always seen as rather useless.

Arb.

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301592

Postby tjh290633 » April 18th, 2020, 5:13 pm

1nvest wrote:At your age Terry, surprised it wasn't a 8" floppy, or even cassette tapes, or paper punch cards .... or come to that - tally sticks :lol: (Sorry).

For us young-an's who hadn't accumulated into PEP's or even were late into ISA's, its been slow to build up the tax efficient side. The more recent increases to £20K/year however is a great help, but still slowish when £20K is relatively small.

My first involvement in computing used a Hollerith tabulator, fed by punched cards and programmed by a breadboard. That was in 1956.

TJH

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Re: TJH Financial Year end

#301648

Postby 1nvest » April 18th, 2020, 8:33 pm

tjh290633 wrote:That was in 1956.

Wow! That was when my father was barely 20 and I was a few years off from even being conceived.


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