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The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
YeeWo
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The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372558

Postby YeeWo » January 3rd, 2021, 9:25 am

Code: Select all

01-Jan-20 | SP     | % PFO | XIRR   | 01-Jan-21 | SP     | % PFO | XIRR   | SP 20+/-
AZN       | £76.07 |  3.4% |  29.2% | AZN       | £73.24 |  3.4% |  19.3% |   -3.72%
BP        |  £4.72 |  4.4% |  11.4% | BP        |  £2.55 |  4.0% |   3.2% |  -45.93%
BATS      | £32.32 |  4.9% | -19.6% | BATS      | £27.08 |  4.2% | -14.1% |  -16.20%
BLND      |  £6.39 |  3.8% |   9.5% | BLND      |  £4.89 |  4.6% |   3.0% |  -23.45%
CCH       | £25.65 |  3.9% |   9.4% | CCH       | £23.77 |  5.6% |   5.3% |   -7.33%
DGE       | £32.01 |  7.2% |  12.6% | DGE       | £28.78 |  6.8% |  10.5% |  -10.08%
GSK       | £17.79 |  4.6% |   5.6% | GSK       | £13.42 |  4.2% |  -0.6% |  -24.56%
HSBA      |  £5.92 |  3.6% |   8.6% | HSBA      |  £3.79 |  3.3% |  29.4% |  -35.97%
IMB       | £18.69 |  2.8% | -17.3% | IMB       | £15.36 |  2.4% | -16.5% |  -17.82%
INCH      |  £7.06 |  6.4% |  12.6% | INCH      |  £6.44 |  3.4% |  12.2% |   -8.78%
IHG       | £52.08 |  3.7% |   9.7% | IHG       | £46.90 |  5.3% |   7.5% |   -9.95%
RB        | £61.29 |  4.3% |  -2.4% | RB        | £65.42 |  4.7% |   1.5% |    6.74%
REL       | £19.06 |  6.5% |  20.2% | REL       | £17.93 |  6.3% |  18.6% |   -5.90%
RIO       | £45.03 |  3.7% |  29.9% | RIO       | £54.70 |  4.7% |  63.9% |   21.47%
RR        |  £6.83 |  2.1% |   4.1% | RR        |  £1.11 |  2.6% |   3.0% |  -83.75%
RDSB      | £22.40 |  5.9% |  24.7% | RDSB      | £12.59 |  3.9% |  15.4% |  -43.78%
SN        | £18.33 |  5.8% |  16.5% | SN        | £15.10 |  5.0% |   7.3% |  -17.60%
TATE      |  £7.60 |  1.8% |  19.7% | TATE      |  £6.74 |  3.2% |   4.9% |  -11.34%
ULVR      | £43.51 |  6.5% |  11.9% | ULVR      | £43.92 |  5.2% |  11.5% |    0.95%
VOD       |  £1.47 |  6.6% |  -8.2% | VOD       |  £1.21 |  5.7% |  -9.5% |  -17.55%
          |        |       |        |           |        |       |        |         
SOLD      |        |       |        | BOUGHT    |        |       |        |         
G4S       |  £2.18 |  3.3% |  10.5% | AV        | £3.252 |  2.5% |  41.0% |         
STAN      | £7.124 |  4.3% |  10.8% | ITRK      | £56.48 |  3.1% |  -6.1% |         
          |        |       |        | PZC       |  £2.30 |  2.1% |  34.4% |         
          |        |       |        | JDW       | £11.16 |  3.5% |  39.0% |         
The left of the table is the portfolio on the 1st January 2020, the right on 1st January 2021. The far right column shows the performance of the SP Only (no taking account of dividends!) during the year.

Full ISA allowance used as Additional Capital and all Dividend Income reinvested

DIVIDENDS
2020 - £9880.43, 2019 - £15,248.99, 2018 - £11,495.92, 2017 - £9586.05, 2016 - £7317.31, 2015 - £6821.33, 2014 - £6693.64

A synopsis of where by stock my dividend payouts came from (% of Total Income & Stock code):-

Code: Select all

13.71% | VOD  | 3.97% | TATE
10.82% | BATS | 3.91% | ULVR
 9.33% | BP   | 3.36% | AZN
 8.48% | RIO  | 3.34% | CCH
 7.05% | GSK  | 3.24% | SN 
 6.90% | RDSB | 1.66% | BLND
 6.30% | IMB  | 1.56% | AV 
 5.44% | DGE  | 0.94% | PZC
 5.33% | REL  | 0.47% | RR 
 4.18% | RB
2019 was a particularly good year for dividends, I forecast then that it may be hard to sustain that level of payout. Clearly events changed the outlook completely for many of the businesses invested in during 2020, quite correctly many payouts were paused.

YIELD - 3.10% based upon total cash payouts received relative to capital value at year end.

VALUE DECREASE - -12.12% Including Added Cash contributions, -13.65% Including Dividends received & Added Cash, -4.08% Total LOSS in Net Worth.

COMMENTARY
2020 was, short of armed conflict, about as catastrophic a year as one could imagine enduring. Stock performance, pretty irrelevant compared to human survival, is shown here: -

Code: Select all

RIO  |  21.47% | BATS | -16.20%
RB   |   6.74% | VOD  | -17.55%
ULVR |   0.95% | SN   | -17.60%
AZN  |  -3.72% | IMB  | -17.82%
REL  |  -5.90% | BLND | -23.45%
CCH  |  -7.33% | GSK  | -24.56%
INCH |  -8.78% | HSBA | -35.97%
IHG  |  -9.95% | RDSB | -43.78%
DGE  | -10.08% | BP   | -45.93%
TATE | -11.34% | RR   | -83.75%
As shown of the 20 stocks held throughout only 3 (Rio Tinto, Reckitt Benckiser & Unilever) posted a positive return.

Disposals during the year
G4S - I was concerned about the level of debt at the business albeit I was holding with a decent margin of safety. The pandemic then broke and I sold out completely 16 Apr 20, crystallising a loss, at 87p. Typically a long term predator arrives on the scene and makes a bid for the business. As I type G4S is 253p. A big mistake on my part, who in reality could have known though?!
StanChart - I was holding SC at a loss, pandemic broke and I sold out again 16 Apr 20 at 397p. No regrets here.

Acquisitions & Significant Activity during the year
Aviva - purchased 16 Apr 20 at 238p currently showing a gain of circa 38% and an XIRR of circa 41%.
Intertek - purchased 13 Nov 20 at 6097p currently held at a loss but a business with a decent sustainable ROCE. Time will tell.
PZ Cussons - purchased 16 Apr 20 at 175p currently showing a gain of circa 33% and an XIRR of circa 35%.
JD Wetherspoon - purchased 16 Apr 20 at 840p and again 12 Oct 20 at 955p currently gain 25%, XIRR 39%.
HSBC - I sold completely 16 Apr 20 at 404p then repurchased 12 Oct 20 at 312p. Lets hope dividends resume soon!
Rolls Royce - If G4S was the negative of 2020 then RR was the positive. I bet big on the RI, buying 05 Oct 20 at 115p and then disposing well (having bagged the Nil Paids) 12 Oct 20 at 229p. RR is therefore on my books with a margin of safety, albeit clearly a business with Problems.

Stock Tip for 2021
I'm going to completely overlook my tips for 2020, events overtook all else! I think for 2021 GSK at 1342p is far too cheap, BUY!

I lost two colleagues during the year and cycling around Central London did on some days see more Ambulances than Cars. As I type vast swathes of high-end shopping arcades are deserted, many of the closed business have de-fitted their premises and therefore won't be coming back. Let's hope the vaccination programme works, furlough is apparently extended until April '21 though which is worrying. Britain in 2021 feels, to me at least, like 1946. An unimaginable disaster has happened, if you're still here financially and mentally, things can surely to God only get Better!. Exactly after WW2 lets hope for a Strong Recovery!

Happy New Year and Good Luck to all in 2021!

Newroad
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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372661

Postby Newroad » January 3rd, 2021, 1:46 pm

Hi YeeWo.

Thanks for the post!

On the WWII analogy though, I'm not sure it's a good one. The so-called Age of Austerity lasted until 1951 with rationing finishing 1954 and that was with the US rolling out the Marshall Plan from 1948 - of which (contrary to some less-informed views) the UK was the largest beneficiary. The only early upside I can see was near full employment. However, that's probably a longer conversation in a different forum.

Sorry to hear about your two colleagues. I hope 2021 is better for you, they and everyone on all levels.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372694

Postby dealtn » January 3rd, 2021, 2:49 pm

Newroad wrote:... the US rolling out the Marshall Plan from 1948 - of which (contrary to some less-informed views) the UK was the largest beneficiary.


2nd largest (behind the US!)

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372706

Postby Newroad » January 3rd, 2021, 3:29 pm

Hi Dealtn.

Not sure exactly what you mean, e.g. whether the US got (more of its own) money from the Marshall Plan, in which case I've never heard that expressed before (which doesn't make it wrong) or that in "benefited" the most in a more broad sense? I understand the CIA got a chunk, but there were at least half a dozen countries that got more than it.

In any case, I intended direct financial benefits, for which the UK benefited almost half again as much as France - second on the list.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372709

Postby Dod101 » January 3rd, 2021, 3:31 pm

Reverting to YeeWo's post, I like his two gains from April but the problem is that buying almost anything at that time would have shown a decent gain (with the exception of HSBC!)

As for feeling like 1946, I do not remember I am sorry to say. Too young at the time.

As for dividends, two of my holdings cancelled dividends, HSBC and M J Gleeson, but in fact almost as big a hit for me was the dramatic reduction in dividend payments from Imperial Brands and Shell, only one of which may have been affected by Covid.

Dod

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372711

Postby Dod101 » January 3rd, 2021, 3:34 pm

I do not understand dealt'n comment either. The Marshall Aid plan was I always understood to help the recovery of Europe. I do not understand how the US could be a beneficiary of that. Most I think would accept that UK was the biggest beneficiary.

Dod

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372712

Postby dealtn » January 3rd, 2021, 3:40 pm

Dod101 wrote:I do not understand dealt'n comment either. The Marshall Aid plan was I always understood to help the recovery of Europe. I do not understand how the US could be a beneficiary of that. Most I think would accept that UK was the biggest beneficiary.

Dod


So the US didn't benefit from the recovery in Europe is your view?

Not only did the US financially benefit from the terms of the Marshall Aid plan, but the recovery in Europe it advanced created a large overseas wealthy market it could sell its products into.

The alternative history of a world without the Marshall Aid Plan would have resulted in a less successful and prosperous US.

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372717

Postby Newroad » January 3rd, 2021, 3:50 pm

No worries, Dealtn.

So you meant more broadly - fair enough, that may well be an accurate view - hard to put a number on though :)

Regards, Newroad

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372718

Postby Dod101 » January 3rd, 2021, 3:56 pm

dealtn wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I do not understand dealt'n comment either. The Marshall Aid plan was I always understood to help the recovery of Europe. I do not understand how the US could be a beneficiary of that. Most I think would accept that UK was the biggest beneficiary.

Dod


So the US didn't benefit from the recovery in Europe is your view?

Not only did the US financially benefit from the terms of the Marshall Aid plan, but the recovery in Europe it advanced created a large overseas wealthy market it could sell its products into.

The alternative history of a world without the Marshall Aid Plan would have resulted in a less successful and prosperous US.


Of course that is not my view but that is not what we are writing about. We were discussing the immediate and direct aid benefit to the UK from the Marshall Aid Plan, not the consequent and indirect benefit to the US economy of rather more economic activity in the UK and Europe as a result of the plan than would otherwise have been the case. This in any case is off topic and has nothing to do with YeeWo's post.

Dod

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#372847

Postby moorfield » January 3rd, 2021, 9:40 pm

YeeWo wrote:DIVIDENDS
2020 - £9880.43, 2019 - £15,248.99, 2018 - £11,495.92, 2017 - £9586.05, 2016 - £7317.31, 2015 - £6821.33, 2014 - £6693.64


Ouch. :( I have suffered a 31% drop in dividends if any consolation ... It will improve next year.


I lost two colleagues during the year and cycling around Central London did on some days see more Ambulances than Cars. As I type vast swathes of high-end shopping arcades are deserted, many of the closed business have de-fitted their premises and therefore won't be coming back. Let's hope the vaccination programme works, furlough is apparently extended until April '21 though which is worrying. Britain in 2021 feels, to me at least, like 1946. An unimaginable disaster has happened, if you're still here financially and mentally, things can surely to God only get Better!. Exactly after WW2 lets hope for a Strong Recovery!


... which puts our investing problems into some perspective, for many here I suspect they are "nice problems to have". It does feel like UK 2021 is pedaling backwards at the moment, and will get worse before it gets better. Onwards and upwards, I hope.

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#373403

Postby Dod101 » January 5th, 2021, 12:02 pm

moorfield wrote:Ouch. :( I have suffered a 31% drop in dividends if any consolation ... It will improve next year.


That is a dramatic drop. Across my portfolio I am down a mere 11.5% which I think is bad enough. My losses came from HSBC (which accounted for little more than half the loss) Gleeson (a small loss) Shell and Imperial Brands. Shell and HSBC were the two shockers to me. The other loss was self inflicted. I must have panicked slightly when there was a threat to Legal & General's dividend so I sold some and bought 3i which has a slightly lower yield but a more secure dividend I reasoned, but in doing so I lost the Final from L& G on the portion of my holding that I sold. I then bought back later at more or less the same price, which I am glad to say has since increased.

Dod

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Re: The Melting Snowball 2020 - YeeWo's AR

#374505

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 7th, 2021, 8:17 pm

moorfield wrote:Ouch. :( I have suffered a 31% drop in dividends if any consolation ... It will improve next year.


A week or so ago, I looked at the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE All Share and FTSE All World and their performance since the end of April 2020. The data is by no means perfect, but the historical dividend yields quoted seemed to imply declines of 22%, 25.9%, 22.3% and 8.1% respectively. If proper data was available on a comparative calendar year basis, I suspect it would be closer to your own 31% drop, so you're surely not alone!

Best wishes,


Mark.


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