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Spiderbill's yearly review Jan 2021

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
spiderbill
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Spiderbill's yearly review Jan 2021

#374722

Postby spiderbill » January 8th, 2021, 12:33 pm

Jan 2020 report can be found here - viewtopic.php?f=56&t=21134&p=275005#p275005

Includes ITs, ETFs, and OEICs in addition to the mostly Hyp-ish shares portfolio.

Individual Shares

Portfolio size is now about £145k, so still down from last year's 150k despite some purchases during the year, but much better than the Covid-induced 96k that it had fallen to in late March or even the 112k that it had struggled to recover to in early November.
All but 27k would be considered HYPish when it was bought.
71.5% of it is in ISAs.
Running Yield is 4.78%

The portfolio was started properly in about 2011. Prior to that I'd only had SLF and Lloyds; the former from a mutual rights to company shares transfer. No comments about Insurance please - as I've said before I consider SLF in a different category to the UK ones, and if I'd simply bought more of that rather than invested in all my other shares I'd be far better off than I am.

                                                                                 Value     Div    Fcst 
Share Epic Sector %Total %Total Yield

Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF Life Insurance 13.22% 8.85% 3.20%
Legal and General Group LGEN Life Insurance 8.48% 11.52% 6.50%
Rio Tinto RIO Mining 6.95% 8.87% 6.10%
Pan African Resources PAF Mining 6.35% 4.92% 3.70%
National Grid NG Multiutilities 6.15% 7.33% 5.70%
GlaxoSmithKline GSK Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 5.93% 7.31% 5.90%
Aviva AV Life Insurance 5.21% 7.84% 7.20%
Taylor Wimpey TW Household Goods & Home Construction 5.00% 1.88% 1.80%
Regional REIT Limited RGL IT - Property - UK Commercial 4.15% 8.84% 10.20%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' RDSB Oil & Gas Producers 4.07% 3.66% 4.30%
Polar Capital Holdings POLR General Financial 3.35% 3.64% 5.20%
HSBC Holdings HSBA Banks 3.24% 1.29% 1.90%
BAE Systems BA Aerospace & Defence 3.12% 3.14% 4.80%
Schroders (Non-Voting) SDRC Financial Services 2.79% 2.86% 4.90%
British Land Company BLND Retail REITs 2.77% 1.86% 3.20%
Imperial Brands IMB Tobacco 2.70% 5.03% 8.90%
Lloyds Banking Group LLOY Banks 1.92% 0.60% 1.50%
SSE SSE Electricity 1.62% 1.79% 5.30%
Chesnara CSN Life Insurance 1.56% 2.42% 7.40%
Vodafone Group VOD Mobile Telecommunications 1.39% 1.92% 6.60%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) BKG Household Goods & Home Construction 1.26% 1.03% 3.90%
Greencoat UK Wind UKW IT - Renewable Energy Infrastructure 1.16% 1.26% 5.20%
Unilever ULVR Food Producers 0.95% 0.65% 3.30%
MPAC MPAC Engineering 0.92% 0.00% 0.00%
Vistry Group VTY Household Goods & Home Construction 0.87% 0.11% 0.60%
Moneysupermarket.com Group MONY Media 0.84% 0.76% 4.30%
Marston's MARS Travel & Leisure 0.81% 0.00% 0.00%
Majestic Wine WINE Retailers 0.72% 0.00% 0.00%
Petrofac Ltd. PFC Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 0.59% 0.06% 0.50%
Morgan Advanced Materials MGAM Electronic & Electrical Equipment 0.40% 0.15% 1.80%
Greencore Group GNC Food Producers 0.35% 0.00% 0.00%
RSA Insurance Group RSA Nonlife Insurance 0.33% 0.27% 3.90%
Cairn Energy CNE Oil & Gas Producers 0.30% 0.12% 1.90%
Essentra ESNT Support Services 0.22% 0.03% 0.70%
Galliford Try GFRD Construction & Materials 0.20% 0.00% 0.00%
Centrica CNA Gas, Water & Multiutilities 0.06% 0.02% 1.20%
Hyve Group HYVE Media 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%

Running Yield: 4.78%

Value Div
Sector %Total %Total

Life Insurance 28.47% 30.63%
Mining 13.31% 13.78%
Household Goods & Home Construction 7.13% 3.02%
Multiutilities 6.15% 7.33%
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 5.93% 7.31%
Banks 5.15% 1.89%
Oil & Gas Producers 4.37% 3.78%
IT - Property - UK Commercial 4.15% 8.84%
General Financial 3.35% 3.64%
Aerospace & Defence 3.12% 3.14%
Financial Services 2.79% 2.86%
Retail REITs 2.77% 1.86%
Tobacco 2.70% 5.03%
Electricity 1.62% 1.79%
Mobile Telecommunications 1.39% 1.92%
Food Producers 1.30% 0.65%
IT - Renewable Energy Infrastructure 1.16% 1.26%
Engineering 0.92% 0.00%
Media 0.89% 0.76%
Travel & Leisure 0.81% 0.00%
Retailers 0.72% 0.00%
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 0.59% 0.06%
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 0.40% 0.15%
Nonlife Insurance 0.33% 0.27%
Support Services 0.22% 0.03%
Construction & Materials 0.20% 0.00%
Gas, Water & Multiutilities 0.06% 0.02%

Note: 1...'Value %Total' is the portfolio value of the share as a % of the total portfolio
2...'Div %Total' is the expected dividend of the share based on forecast yield
as a % of the total portfolio expected dividend


There are a number of minnows which can be mostly ignored down at the bottom end - all the result of early buys at too-small sizes while I was learning, or of hopeless performance like Centrica (86.5% loss). However two notable improvements amongst them this year have been MPAC, which has surged forward after a rethink of the company direction and is now 285% up on capital, and Majestic/Naked Wine , which has turned around from a long dismal period to finally being in the black by about 27% as the UK population drinks to forget.
The recent finding in favour of Cairn Energy in their Indian tax case may even allow me to escape somewhere around break-even, while the RSA takeover will rid me of another too-small holding at a small profit. All very welcome if hardly massively significant. (If only Petrofac could stage a similar recovery!)

Amongst the upper level shares there's been a lot of change through the combined forces of Covid, Brexit, and Oil prices.
RDSB is the obvious faller, having been in 3rd place last year it has now recovered to 10th but is still ony 4% of the pf compared to 6.7% last year, and the drop in dividends is painful.
HSBC has also suffered badly in both senses while Taylor Wimpey is thankfully recovering with some hope of the dividend being restored.

Going in the opposite direction have been miners Rio Tinto and Pan African. Most will be familiar with the attractions of the former but may not know much about the latter, which had endured a difficult few years due to South African politics and a restructuring of some of their gold mines but has returned to high profits due to their low-cost tailings processing coming on stream at the perfect time to catch the gold price boom. They are now almost debt-free and have reinstated a healthy dividend with the promise of more to come.

Enforced sales of Charles Taylor and Hansteen were replaced by Polar Capital Holdings (which is doing very nicely at around 25% up and yielding 5.3%) and Greencoat UK WInd, along with top-ups of Glaxo, Schroders, L&G, and NG. I was sorely tempted to buy more L&G but my heavy insurance exposure gave me pause, while I was also tempted to top up on Regional REIT when it was a bargain (it may still be) but was aware that I wasn't thinking too straight due to the death in June of my father and I put it off. However it's high on my list again now.

Dividends obviously suffered. After a sequence of annual increases which produced:
£2,147
£4,819
£6,186
£7,694
I was expecting around £8,400 for 2020 , but instead got only £5,345. However my projections for 2021 are around £6,860 if HSBC, Lloyds, and TW return to something approaching previous levels.

Capital performance
Overall my capital performance has not been good, and obviously this year made it a lot worse until the recent recovery. Overall I'm about 3½k down and that would be a lot worse without SLF. If we manage to get a grip on Covid them I can hope to be back in black but the problems of oil (RDSB and Petrofac), tobacco, (IMB) and the banks (HSBC and Lloyds), plus Aviva, Vodafone and Marstons have made a big hole. Against that the winners look mostly puny.

Top Winners - Capital % (over investment lifetime)
MPAC 284%
SLF 127%
PAF 93%
RIO 76%
ULVR 69%
BKG 68%
MONY 56%

Top Winners - Capital £ (over investment lifetime)
SLF 11,018
RIO 4,707
PAF 4,613
LGEN 1,224
MPAC 1,020
POLR 883

My records indicate that the critical period for this was around 2017/18, where I had spare cash from an inheritance and was trying to find a home for it. Most of my purchases then - nearly all considered HYP stalwarts at the time - are around 20% down on average. Maybe I should have gone for the fast cars and loose women option ;-)

Thankfully the income over the portfolio lifetime has been much better so overall I have a total return of around £29k

Top overall performers on income have been:
SLF
LGEN
RDSB
NG
AV
IMB
GSK
TW
RIO
HSBA
RGL
BA
though obviously with varying holding sizes and times you shouldn't read too much into that, and the Total Return figures tell a rather different story with RDSB, IMB, and HSBC dropping to the bottom end of the list to join the cursed Petrofac. The main takeaway here is that it's often far more important when you buy rather than what you buy. Who would have thought that diversifying into "Never Sell" Shell, the "World's Local bank" and a company with "ever-rising dividends" would do so much damage? This is why I no longer pay any attention to such "conventional wisdom" phrases.

ETFs
(bought in 8/17)
No further purchases this year. I sold VERX in early Feb at a slight profit having been underwater for most of the holding period. Of course it has done much better since then despite Covid so I should have held on.

VWRL is now up 30.49% overall compared to 16.5% this time last year, which, given the horrors of 2020 generally, rather suggests that I should have just put all my money into trackers instead of wasting my time learning about investing! ;-)

ITs
Only been buying since 2017. Mixture of income and growth. Leaning towards Asia with a bit of US - as a counterpoint to the mainly UK-biased shares portfolio.
Some buying this year:
4 x HFEL (pity one was in Jan but the others are all doing well, particularly the one from April - 19% up)
1 x FCIT (unfortunately on 14th Feb, but now back to a slight plus)
1 x JGGI (doubling my holding, wish I'd bought more, 14½% up)
1 x JFJ (very recent buy)

Of the holdings I had just before the virus struck in late Feb I'm just 3% down now - rather better than the shares but rather worse that the ETF. But of course some of these ITs are high yield whereas the ETF isn't.
Dividends from the ITs grew from a mere £392 in 2019 to £963 in 2020, and my current projections suggest £1249 for 2021, so they are now starting to make a useful contribution and I intend to buy more.

                                                                                 Value     Div    Fcst 
Share Epic Sector %Total %Total Yield

Henderson Far East Income Ltd. HFEL IT - Asia Pacific Income 35.48% 53.46% 7.10%
Murray International Trust MYI IT - Global Equity Income 5.86% 5.85% 4.70%
F and C Investment Trust FCIT IT - Global 19.62% 6.24% 1.50%
Merchants Trust MRCH IT - UK Equity Income 11.87% 15.87% 6.30%
Blackrock North American Incom BRNA IT - North America 5.97% 6.08% 4.80%
JPMorgan Global Growth & Incom JGGI IT - Global Equity Income 16.31% 11.77% 3.40%
JPMorgan Japanese Inv Trust JFJ IT - Japan 4.89% 0.73% 0.70%

Running Yield: 4.71%

Value Div
Sector %Total %Total

IT - Asia Pacific Income 35.48% 53.46%
IT - Global Equity Income 22.18% 17.62%
IT - Global 19.62% 6.24%
IT - UK Equity Income 11.87% 15.87%
IT - North America 5.97% 6.08%
IT - Japan 4.89% 0.73%

Note: 1...'Value %Total' is the portfolio value of the share as a % of the total portfolio
2...'Div %Total' is the expected dividend of the share based on forecast yield
as a % of the total portfolio expected dividend


OEICs

A "Balanced Growth" started in 2012 and still managed by Scottish Widows, and a more recent (2018) "Dynamic Growth" which was moved to Schroder's. Both dropped by about 20% this year but have climbed back gradually and are now in touching distance of their value prior to the Covid collapse.

Pension Pots and Other Items

With most of the Spring and Summer taken up with dad's final illness and sorting out his estate I've neglected this area, but I suspect the totals aren't much different from a year ago at around 180k, and I've yet to take the TFLS. That's next on the agenda. Then I'll look at retirement - I'm due the state pension in April but I still have a couple of clients who want me to continue to work with them.
The flat I bought for dad is up for sale but retirement flats in a pandemic lockdown aren't exactly flying off the shelf so it could be some time before I see anything from that. It'll eventually give me another approx 80k to work with but I'll probably use most of it for house improvements over here in Slovenia.

Overall conclusion - could have been a lot worse given the circumstances

The big question is whether the Covid and Brexit disasters that are now befalling small and medium UK businesses will bleed into the market performance or if its multinational nature will rise above/steer around them. While some pundits think the UK is undervalued I feel more comfortable continuing to look to the Far East and US for most of my new investments and that will be through ITs.
I suspect I should also do some rebalancing at some stage as 2020 has skewed the components of the share portfolion even further out of kilter. Some of that may self-repair, if for instance the housebuilders and the banks recover, so I'm not going to rush into that, but it's something to be aware of and watch closely.

As always many thanks to all I've conversed with here and at the previous location for much valuable advice. For readers of this and earlier reviews I hope it demonstrates some of the pitfalls and opportunities I've encountered and that you can take some value from it.

cheers
Spiderbill

dealtn
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Re: Spiderbill's yearly review Jan 2021

#374915

Postby dealtn » January 8th, 2021, 6:38 pm

spiderbill wrote:
The main takeaway here is that it's often far more important when you buy rather than what you buy.



Thanks for the review, but on this point I think I disagree. Timing may be important, but the more important thing to me is still the "what".

Obviously you have elements of diversification here, although I am not familiar with the ITs, ETFs and OEICS as I only ever invest in individual shares myself, but I note your individual share portfolio is (as described by yourself) "mostly Hyp-ish". Over reliance on a single strategy or approach will leave you exposed to the rewards of that strategy. If the broad strategy under-delivers, for whatever reason, it is hard not to be affected by that.

spiderbill
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Re: Spiderbill's yearly review Jan 2021

#374955

Postby spiderbill » January 8th, 2021, 8:22 pm

dealtn wrote:Thanks for the review, but on this point I think I disagree. Timing may be important, but the more important thing to me is still the "what".

Obviously you have elements of diversification here, although I am not familiar with the ITs, ETFs and OEICS as I only ever invest in individual shares myself, but I note your individual share portfolio is (as described by yourself) "mostly Hyp-ish". Over reliance on a single strategy or approach will leave you exposed to the rewards of that strategy. If the broad strategy under-delivers, for whatever reason, it is hard not to be affected by that.


I suspect we're not so far apart on this as it initially appears. What I was trying to say, in a devilishly complex scenario, is that "good" shares aren't *always* good - it depends on when in the cycle they are (if they have one), when in the arc of their story, when in the trend of the markets, when in the political ebb and flow. Because buying is often a very complex decision we tend to fall back on simple descriptions to support our guesses - how often did I read how Shell had never dropped their dividend since WW2, yet ultimately it means very little if there is a major shift in energy policy starting to kick in and a political situation in Saudi Arabia and Russia that is about to cause lots of disruption. Both were, in hindsight, obvious dangers. Did I take the easy way out by listening to the platitudes and not analysing the situation properly? Maybe.

Of course whether you can always see these dangers is by no means certain, but I do feel now that I could have taken better decisions around the 2017/18 period which would have saved me some losses.

As regards relying on a particular strategy I hope my increasing experiments with ITs and my fairly substantial ventures into growth OEICs are a counterbalance to my HYP-ish shares. I've said in other threads that I was drawn to LTBH and dividends by the fact that I felt I could understand the basis of how they worked, whereas momentum and value investing were areas I found much harder to get a handle on, and with the pressures of running a one-man business there was a limit to how much time I could devote to learning and evaluating different strategies. I do have reservations about HYP and don't always follow its "rules" (which is why I call it HYP-ish) and many strict HYPers would probably look askance at some of my choices. I also don't believe that strategies are always going to work well even if they have done so in the past, so I hope I'm flexible enough to adapt if things start to look negative; though inevitably now that retirment looms there are fewer options than would be the case if I were 20 years younger and building a pot rather than creating an income stream.

Thanks for your thoughts - helps stimulate my own at a good time, having just been thinking through the review, as well as offering alternative viewpoints.

Spiderbill


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