End of year values

[Midsmartin]

I'm up about 21% which is fairly pleasing. My three biggest percentage rises are ones I've blindly bought from tips in SCSW (Small company sharewatch): Kape, Future, Reach. Maybe I'm over invested in equities now.

Since January 2010 I've done roughly the same as a world tracker, ie SWDA (though my numbers include some cash in the portfolio). In reality I've done a bit worse than that because I think i've put a bit of new money in the pot and I never managed to unitise everything to account for it properly. I tried to unitise once but gave up.

I had a fantastically good 2009-2010 (biggest contributor: Cape, a company I followed closely, falling to a PE of under 1 and then rebounding). Then a poor 2012-14 which lost some of that gain. Since Jan 2014 Sharescope says that my portfolio has been within a gnat's crotchet of the Vanguard lifestrategy 100% equity income fund.

Logical conclusion: I should put everything in trackers and take up some new hobbies instead. The performance of SWDA, the world tracker, is biased towards the US which has outperformed. Will that continue? I've no idea. For years I've thought the US couldn't possible continue outperforming so much, and I've been wrong.

Very roughly, we are about 85% invested in something, including a bit in gold ETFs, about 20% now in trackers or general investment trusts, the rest in various shares. I plan to move away from individual shares as time goes on. I have some volatile smallish companies and balance that with gradually increasing holdings of very boring capital preservation ITs like PNL(personal assets trust). Sometimes that feels a clever way to balance. Most likely it's just pointless, with the volatile and non-volatile cancelling out leaving me with, well, a complicated tracker.

But.. it's hard to stop stock-picking. I might miss out on The Big One. It's a big computer game where a new high score gives me a buzz for a few minutes. I've bought some decent shares over the years, but I have also failed to buy all the US tech companies - even though I worked in IT: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla. All these have not made it into my portfolio. I think that should be a harsh pointer that I'm not especially good at this game.

[Arborbridge]

Banks...Lloyds total return in 2021 was 35% , Natwest 40%....HSBC..21%....it just goes to show that 1 year performance can flatter to deceive.

And that of course is the problem with looking at one year returns. probably a monkey with a dart could have done well last year.

Dod

I'm not sure if the problem at HFEL is going to last forever, but it certainly hasn't done well for a couple of years. Before that, I was getting XIRRs of double figures - 10-12%, but since then it has halved.

How can we tell whether such a problem is temporary, to stop us bailing out as the wrong time - sometimes at a loss ? That's why I don't often make changes.

Considering some of the dunces big increases, have you ever tried investing in last year's failures? Might be better than selling out of them

Arb.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I record less for the calendar year and work more on the financial year. However, total return for my UK listed holdings in my dividend growth portfolio are:



* Based on 31 December through 31 December for each year.

The average gain is about 16.2% which is probably similar to the portfolio as a whole - the closest I've got is the 10 January 2021 unit price compared to today's. Some holdings such as Spirax Sarco have done very well consistently (lowest annual gain the last five years was about 13%) whereas in other cases we see very good years followed by bad (i.e. DP Poland).

My non-UK listed holdings (MasterCard, PayPal, Kone and Evolution) are not included in the above but are included in the unitisation.

Best wishes


Mark.

[BullDog]

Banks...Lloyds total return in 2021 was 35% , Natwest 40%....HSBC..21%....it just goes to show that 1 year performance can flatter to deceive.

And that of course is the problem with looking at one year returns. probably a monkey with a dart could have done well last year.

Dod

I'm not sure if the problem at HFEL is going to last forever, but it certainly hasn't done well for a couple of years. Before that, I was getting XIRRs of double figures - 10-12%, but since then it has halved.

How can we tell whether such a problem is temporary, to stop us bailing out as the wrong time - sometimes at a loss ? That's why I don't often make changes.

Considering some of the dunces big increases, have you ever tried investing in last year's failures? Might be better than selling out of them

Arb.

Looking at what's reported at HL, a near 8% yield on the IT trading at a small premium, I reckon it's worth hanging on at HFEL. I am not at all keen on three Chinese banks being in the top ten holdings. But I think a return to modest capital growth could be on the cards. I suspect too that selling some future growth options to boost income will continue to be a drag though.

[YeeWo]

9.6% ISA Portfolio. I will write a full report when I get a chance!
31% AVC Portfolio.

A Fantastic Year on the basis my net worth has increased far more from investment than actual work........

[YeeWo]

I record less for the calendar year and work more on the financial year. However, total return for my UK listed holdings in my dividend growth portfolio are:



* Based on 31 December through 31 December for each year.

The average gain is about 16.2% which is probably similar to the portfolio as a whole - the closest I've got is the 10 January 2021 unit price compared to today's. Some holdings such as Spirax Sarco have done very well consistently (lowest annual gain the last five years was about 13%) whereas in other cases we see very good years followed by bad (i.e. DP Poland).

My non-UK listed holdings (MasterCard, PayPal, Kone and Evolution) are not included in the above but are included in the unitisation.

Best wishes

Mark.

Have you Sold Standard Chartered?

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Have you Sold Standard Chartered?

Yes: viewtopic.php?p=433831#p433831

Best wishes


Mark.

[1nvest]

Good aspect for 2021 = +14% (BRK +30.8%, Gold -2.5%)

Bad aspect is ... more fecking gold (91 ounces more to be bought (portfolio rebalancing) and be buried, at least there isn't a hard ground frost this year), which is 16 ounces more than the total original amount started with. Accumulating it at a 11.4% annualised ounces could prove problematic in respect to storage space). In total 8 times more of the useless stuff - where it doesn't even pay any interest/dividends (but equally nor does BRK), but some consolation is that its price is 6 times higher



Dividend wise, again zero directed by others, so will yet again have to decide how much and when to pay my own. Which isn't so bad, as that's more aligned to the amount and times that best match with my needs/circumstances.

HNY 1 & all

[Dod101]

Banks...Lloyds total return in 2021 was 35% , Natwest 40%....HSBC..21%....it just goes to show that 1 year performance can flatter to deceive.

And that of course is the problem with looking at one year returns. probably a monkey with a dart could have done well last year.

Dod

I'm not sure if the problem at HFEL is going to last forever, but it certainly hasn't done well for a couple of years. Before that, I was getting XIRRs of double figures - 10-12%, but since then it has halved.

How can we tell whether such a problem is temporary, to stop us bailing out as the wrong time - sometimes at a loss ? That's why I don't often make changes.

Considering some of the dunces big increases, have you ever tried investing in last year's failures? Might be better than selling out of them

Arb.

I agree but there has to be a limit to my patience. I am also concerned about Baillie Gifford China Growth, or non Growth as it should be called. It is a very small holding for me and i should not have bought it because I have always said that I do not like single country funds.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

Looking at what's reported at HL, a near 8% yield on the IT trading at a small premium, I reckon it's worth hanging on at HFEL. I am not at all keen on three Chinese banks being in the top ten holdings. But I think a return to modest capital growth could be on the cards. I suspect too that selling some future growth options to boost income will continue to be a drag though.

A drag indeed! In that past two years my income has been expensively bought, as Dod would say. The decline in my capital has in effect contributed to 70% of the income they've paid out to me in those two years - that wasn't the idea at all

[Arborbridge]

PS to my previous post. I invested in JAGI (JPMorgan Asia Growth) because it had honrouable mentions, and when I looked at it, the history seems to have been very good and it pays around 4%. It would knock the socks off HFEL anytime!

Well, guess what - it hasn't this year, it's fallen more than HFEL. If we talk about expensively bought, the fall in capital has been worth several year' payout.

I notice also that SOI, and JEMI have also fallen, but that JAGI has fallen further - yet it has beaten all those other three over five years. Just my luck to invest when it turned doggish.

I'm guessing now is not the time to panic over HFEL as they've all sufferred this past year.

By contrast my European funds have done rather better.

Arb.

[ReformedCharacter]

PS to my previous post. I invested in JAGI (JPMorgan Asia Growth) because it had honrouable mentions, and when I looked at it, the history seems to have been very good and it pays around 4%. It would knock the socks off HFEL anytime!

Well, guess what - it hasn't this year, it's fallen more than HFEL. If we talk about expensively bought, the fall in capital has been worth several year' payout.

I notice also that SOI, and JEMI have also fallen, but that JAGI has fallen further - yet it has beaten all those other three over five years. Just my luck to invest when it turned doggish.

I'm guessing now is not the time to panic over HFEL as they've all sufferred this past year.

By contrast my European funds have done rather better.

Arb.

I hold HFEL, SOI and JAGI. The first two have not helped the end of year capital portfolio value but I was lucky with JAGI, buying in September 2019 and showing an IRR of 15.4%, you can't win them all

RC

[AsleepInYorkshire]

A drag indeed! In that past two years my income has been expensively bought, as Dod would say. The decline in my capital has in effect contributed to 70% of the income they've paid out to me in those two years - that wasn't the idea at all

Arb,

I'd like, if I may please, to just say an open thank you for this post. It has reminded me that as I move toward retirement I need to make sure I have some "headroom" in my plan. I hope events improve for you.

Happy New Year

AiY (D)

[tjh290633]

My habit has been to keep a record of the annual change in share price of my various holdings. This often reveals that last year's losers are this year's winners and vice versa. The following table shows the results for the last few years, to illustrate the point:

2016      .      2017       .       2018             2019             2020             2021
Epic     Change    Epic   Change    Epic    Change     Epic   Change    Epic   Change    Epic   Change 
S32      207.62%   INDV    37.81%   PSON      27.50%   SGRO    52.43%   WMH*    43.29%   MKS     69.77%
BLT       71.91%   TW.     34.46%   AZN       14.68%   TW.     41.94%   ADM     25.86%   S32     55.69%
PFL *     67.45%   DGE     29.15%   GSK       12.76%   MARS    35.25%   KGF     24.61%   SGRO    51.59%
INDV      57.72%   IMI     28.17%   BHP        8.48%   TSCO    34.25%   RIO     21.47%   IMI     49.01%
RDSB      52.56%   SGRO    28.14%   CPG        3.13%   SSE     33.01%   BHP      8.34%   DGE     40.24%
BP.       43.95%   SMDS    26.81%   DGE        2.57%   LGEN    31.17%   PSON     6.81%   LLOY    31.17%
RIO @     42.12%   S32     25.54%   ADM        2.25%   AZN     29.52%   RB.      6.74%   BP.     29.71%
TSCO      38.36%   ULVR    25.30%   SGRO       0.27%   BATS    29.26%   SGRO     5.62%   RDSB    28.82%
CPG       27.74%   RIO     24.81%   ULVR      -0.41%   SMDS    28.37%   SSE      4.28%   BT.A    28.20%
BATS      22.55%   VOD     17.59%   BP.       -5.12%   UU.     28.14%   ULVR     0.95%   AV.     26.20%
IMI       20.72%   BLT     16.53%   RIO       -5.38%   IMI     24.89%   PHP@     0.67%   TSCO    25.28%
BA.       18.39%   AZN     15.40%   TATE      -6.12%   NG.     23.57%   S32     -1.15%   KGF     25.11%
TATE      18.11%   WMH     10.96%   RDSB      -6.72%   BA.     23.00%   IMI     -1.19%   NG.     22.52%
LGEN @    15.33%   LGEN    10.38%   INDV*     -8.87%   WMH     21.58%   SMDS    -2.50%   UU.     21.68%
GSK       13.77%   BLND     9.85%   TSCO      -9.15%   RIO     20.72%   AZN     -3.72%   CPG     21.13%
DGE       13.65%   ADM      9.58%   S32       -9.25%   LLOY    20.61%   UU.     -5.13%   GSK     19.72%
ULVR      12.51%   BATS     8.58%   UU.      -11.25%   BLND    19.80%   NG.     -8.40%   AZN     18.49%
PSON      11.21%   LLOY     8.41%   BT.A     -12.37%   GSK     19.30%   TSCO    -9.33%   BHP     14.26%
ADM       10.13%   CPG      6.60%   NG.      -12.67%   TATE    15.18%   DGE    -10.08%   BA.     12.48%
RB.        9.63%   RDSB     6.56%   RB.      -13.09%   CPG     14.55%   TATE   -11.29%   LGEN    11.76%
SGRO       6.68%   AV.      4.13%   LGEN     -15.48%   DGE     14.51%   LGEN   -12.15%   SSE      9.93%
KGF        6.31%   BP.      2.57%   MARS     -16.40%   ADM     12.80%   BA.    -13.46%   ADM      8.64%
REX *      4.90%   TSCO     1.16%   SSE      -18.07%   AV.     11.50%   TW.    -14.27%   BLND     8.59%
SMDS       2.87%   RB.      0.48%   BA.      -19.86%   BHP      7.58%   BATS   -16.20%   TW.      5.85%
SSE        1.64%   TATE    -0.64%   MKS      -21.47%   ULVR     5.89%   VOD    -17.59%   IMB      5.28%
NG.        1.50%   BA.     -3.13%   BLND     -22.89%   KGF      4.58%   IMB    -17.84%   SMDS     2.46%
IMB       -1.23%   KGF     -3.60%   LLOY     -23.86%   RB.      1.93%   AV.    -22.33%   MARS     1.85%
UU.       -3.69%   UU.     -7.94%   IMB      -24.92%   VOD     -4.02%   BLND   -23.45%   BATS     0.94%
AZN       -3.88%   NG.     -8.04%   AV.      -25.86%   RDSB    -4.29%   GSK    -24.56%   PHP     -0.92%
AV.       -5.74%   MKS    -10.06%   IMI      -29.18%   BP.     -4.91%   CPG    -27.88%   TATE    -1.93%
VOD       -9.57%   PSON   -10.08%   TW.      -33.99%   MKS    -13.63%   BT.A   -31.28%   RKT     -3.06%
LLOY     -14.08%   IMB    -10.63%   VOD      -34.94%   BT.A   -19.18%   MKS    -36.16%   IGG@    -5.68%
MARS     -18.32%   SSE    -15.00%   KGF      -38.55%   IMB    -21.37%   MARS   -40.57%   VOD     -7.18%
BLND     -19.91%   GSK    -15.33%   SMDS     -42.16%   S32    -23.37%   LLOY   -41.70%   PSON    -9.88%
CLLN @   -20.03%   MARS   -17.28%   BATS     -50.18%   PSON   -32.12%   RDSB   -43.76%   ULVR   -10.17%
BT.A     -22.22%   BT.A   -25.95%   WMH      -51.86%                    BP.    -45.97%   RIO    -10.57%
MKS      -22.63%   CLLN   -92.69%   CLLN*   -100.00%                                                   
TW.      -24.42%                                                                                       
WMH      -26.72%

* indicates a share sold in the year, while @ marks a new addition.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

A drag indeed! In that past two years my income has been expensively bought, as Dod would say. The decline in my capital has in effect contributed to 70% of the income they've paid out to me in those two years - that wasn't the idea at all

Arb,

I'd like, if I may please, to just say an open thank you for this post. It has reminded me that as I move toward retirement I need to make sure I have some "headroom" in my plan. I hope events improve for you.

Happy New Year

AiY (D)

Well, I've deliberately planned my system so there is plenty of headroom. HFEL is only a problem if I were to sell it - otherwise, I would hope the SP will improve and in year or two the numbers will look better than they do at this particular moment. Or to think of it a different way, had I been writing a couple of years back, the comments would have been more positive concerning HFEL. It's correct to say the dividend is expensively bought, but that is only true at this time, and only true if I "wind up" now.

Arb.

[1nvest]

My habit has been to keep a record of the annual change in share price of my various holdings. This often reveals that last year's losers are this year's winners and vice versa. The following table shows the results for the last few years, to illustrate the point:

2016      .      2017       .       2018             2019             2020             2021
Epic     Change    Epic   Change    Epic    Change     Epic   Change    Epic   Change    Epic   Change 
S32      207.62%   INDV    37.81%   PSON      27.50%   SGRO    52.43%   WMH*    43.29%   MKS     69.77%
BLT       71.91%   TW.     34.46%   AZN       14.68%   TW.     41.94%   ADM     25.86%   S32     55.69%
PFL *     67.45%   DGE     29.15%   GSK       12.76%   MARS    35.25%   KGF     24.61%   SGRO    51.59%
INDV      57.72%   IMI     28.17%   BHP        8.48%   TSCO    34.25%   RIO     21.47%   IMI     49.01%
RDSB      52.56%   SGRO    28.14%   CPG        3.13%   SSE     33.01%   BHP      8.34%   DGE     40.24%
BP.       43.95%   SMDS    26.81%   DGE        2.57%   LGEN    31.17%   PSON     6.81%   LLOY    31.17%
RIO @     42.12%   S32     25.54%   ADM        2.25%   AZN     29.52%   RB.      6.74%   BP.     29.71%
TSCO      38.36%   ULVR    25.30%   SGRO       0.27%   BATS    29.26%   SGRO     5.62%   RDSB    28.82%
CPG       27.74%   RIO     24.81%   ULVR      -0.41%   SMDS    28.37%   SSE      4.28%   BT.A    28.20%
BATS      22.55%   VOD     17.59%   BP.       -5.12%   UU.     28.14%   ULVR     0.95%   AV.     26.20%
IMI       20.72%   BLT     16.53%   RIO       -5.38%   IMI     24.89%   PHP@     0.67%   TSCO    25.28%
BA.       18.39%   AZN     15.40%   TATE      -6.12%   NG.     23.57%   S32     -1.15%   KGF     25.11%
TATE      18.11%   WMH     10.96%   RDSB      -6.72%   BA.     23.00%   IMI     -1.19%   NG.     22.52%
LGEN @    15.33%   LGEN    10.38%   INDV*     -8.87%   WMH     21.58%   SMDS    -2.50%   UU.     21.68%
GSK       13.77%   BLND     9.85%   TSCO      -9.15%   RIO     20.72%   AZN     -3.72%   CPG     21.13%
DGE       13.65%   ADM      9.58%   S32       -9.25%   LLOY    20.61%   UU.     -5.13%   GSK     19.72%
ULVR      12.51%   BATS     8.58%   UU.      -11.25%   BLND    19.80%   NG.     -8.40%   AZN     18.49%
PSON      11.21%   LLOY     8.41%   BT.A     -12.37%   GSK     19.30%   TSCO    -9.33%   BHP     14.26%
ADM       10.13%   CPG      6.60%   NG.      -12.67%   TATE    15.18%   DGE    -10.08%   BA.     12.48%
RB.        9.63%   RDSB     6.56%   RB.      -13.09%   CPG     14.55%   TATE   -11.29%   LGEN    11.76%
SGRO       6.68%   AV.      4.13%   LGEN     -15.48%   DGE     14.51%   LGEN   -12.15%   SSE      9.93%
KGF        6.31%   BP.      2.57%   MARS     -16.40%   ADM     12.80%   BA.    -13.46%   ADM      8.64%
REX *      4.90%   TSCO     1.16%   SSE      -18.07%   AV.     11.50%   TW.    -14.27%   BLND     8.59%
SMDS       2.87%   RB.      0.48%   BA.      -19.86%   BHP      7.58%   BATS   -16.20%   TW.      5.85%
SSE        1.64%   TATE    -0.64%   MKS      -21.47%   ULVR     5.89%   VOD    -17.59%   IMB      5.28%
NG.        1.50%   BA.     -3.13%   BLND     -22.89%   KGF      4.58%   IMB    -17.84%   SMDS     2.46%
IMB       -1.23%   KGF     -3.60%   LLOY     -23.86%   RB.      1.93%   AV.    -22.33%   MARS     1.85%
UU.       -3.69%   UU.     -7.94%   IMB      -24.92%   VOD     -4.02%   BLND   -23.45%   BATS     0.94%
AZN       -3.88%   NG.     -8.04%   AV.      -25.86%   RDSB    -4.29%   GSK    -24.56%   PHP     -0.92%
AV.       -5.74%   MKS    -10.06%   IMI      -29.18%   BP.     -4.91%   CPG    -27.88%   TATE    -1.93%
VOD       -9.57%   PSON   -10.08%   TW.      -33.99%   MKS    -13.63%   BT.A   -31.28%   RKT     -3.06%
LLOY     -14.08%   IMB    -10.63%   VOD      -34.94%   BT.A   -19.18%   MKS    -36.16%   IGG@    -5.68%
MARS     -18.32%   SSE    -15.00%   KGF      -38.55%   IMB    -21.37%   MARS   -40.57%   VOD     -7.18%
BLND     -19.91%   GSK    -15.33%   SMDS     -42.16%   S32    -23.37%   LLOY   -41.70%   PSON    -9.88%
CLLN @   -20.03%   MARS   -17.28%   BATS     -50.18%   PSON   -32.12%   RDSB   -43.76%   ULVR   -10.17%
BT.A     -22.22%   BT.A   -25.95%   WMH      -51.86%                    BP.    -45.97%   RIO    -10.57%
MKS      -22.63%   CLLN   -92.69%   CLLN*   -100.00%                                                   
TW.      -24.42%                                                                                       
WMH      -26.72%

* indicates a share sold in the year, while @ marks a new addition.

TJH

Oh no it doesn't

Take each years 5 worst and equal weight them at the start of the next year, hold for the year, and 2016 to 2021 inclusive compounded to a -5% loss or thereabouts.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Well, I've deliberately planned my system so there is plenty of headroom. HFEL is only a problem if I were to sell it - otherwise, I would hope the SP will improve and in year or two the numbers will look better than they do at this particular moment. Or to think of it a different way, had I been writing a couple of years back, the comments would have been more positive concerning HFEL. It's correct to say the dividend is expensively bought, but that is only true at this time, and only true if I "wind up" now.

Arb.

Ah ha ... thanks for that ... still a great reminder

Take care

AiY(D)

[kempiejon]

A drag indeed! In that past two years my income has been expensively bought, as Dod would say. The decline in my capital has in effect contributed to 70% of the income they've paid out to me in those two years - that wasn't the idea at all

Arb,

I'd like, if I may please, to just say an open thank you for this post. It has reminded me that as I move toward retirement I need to make sure I have some "headroom" in my plan. I hope events improve for you.

Happy New Year

AiY (D)

Well, I've deliberately planned my system so there is plenty of headroom. HFEL is only a problem if I were to sell it - otherwise, I would hope the SP will improve and in year or two the numbers will look better than they do at this particular moment. Or to think of it a different way, had I been writing a couple of years back, the comments would have been more positive concerning HFEL. It's correct to say the dividend is expensively bought, but that is only true at this time, and only true if I "wind up" now.

Arb.

Of course next year, likely as not, it'll be some other previous good pick that'll be the laggard, for me at least, twas ever thus, don't expect to win all of them all the time.

Re headroom; I'm hoping to harvest an amount from my investments of about 10% more than I intend to spend just in case. That annual amount includes discretionary spends so I can economise or reinvest any surplus. I also want a year's worth as a cash buffer for unexpected spends and a couple of years worth to smooth stockmarket wobbles. I work on financial years but a perfunctory scan on my numbers to December YE show I'm about there, hopefully on target for that plan to slot in before YE Dec 2022. We'll see how we're doing in April.

[GoSeigen]

GS portfolios up 35% since their valuation just before the 2020 crash (vs unchanged FTSE) so can't complain. As usual biggest returns are from fixed interest (partly due to stellar performance and partly overweighting).

GS

[ian56]

And that of course is the problem with looking at one year returns. probably a monkey with a dart could have done well last year.

Dod

I'm not sure if the problem at HFEL is going to last forever, but it certainly hasn't done well for a couple of years. Before that, I was getting XIRRs of double figures - 10-12%, but since then it has halved.

How can we tell whether such a problem is temporary, to stop us bailing out as the wrong time - sometimes at a loss ? That's why I don't often make changes.

Considering some of the dunces big increases, have you ever tried investing in last year's failures? Might be better than selling out of them

Arb.

Looking at what's reported at HL, a near 8% yield on the IT trading at a small premium, I reckon it's worth hanging on at HFEL. I am not at all keen on three Chinese banks being in the top ten holdings. But I think a return to modest capital growth could be on the cards. I suspect too that selling some future growth options to boost income will continue to be a drag though.

My bold. I always take HL's IT weightings with a pinch of salt as going to the source often gives a different picture.

Looking here: https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/in ... e-limited/

and scrolling to portfolio gives a different picture, albeit dated 30/11/2021, I suspect still more up to date than HL (where else would HL get their information?). The three banks are not to be seen in the top ten and looking at country weightings, China shows as just over 11% as opposed to HL's opinion that it is 28%.

I agree it's worth hanging on and have no plans to sell out of HFEL currently as, although I would also like to see a little more upward movement in capital values, this holding was bought primarily for income. My XIRR at 31/12/2021 is still a positive number (2.55%).

My portfolio value overall is up 15.3% since 1/1/2021.

Ian