Andy Pandy's Portfolio FWIW

[AndyPandy]

I post this more for entertainment value than serious critique as there is plenty wrong with it, whatever strategy you use, but it works for me. Where some Lemons bet on all sorts of events, I've never stepped inside a Bookie in my life and have zero interest in Sports. This is one of my very few hobbies and I enjoy some lightweight research and a bit of trading. I probably trade about 20% of the holdings a year. To put it all into context, it's about 10% of my Net Worth, so not a disaster if it all goes horribly wrong. Annualised IRR is about 6.5%

I've outperformed the FTSE this year and the portfolio hit an all-time high on New Year's Eve. Since it started with my decision to take personal control of my Pension in 2015 it has very much outperformed the FTSE (although it looked very different then). In addition I have taken my 25% tax-free lump out and used it to fund Business purchases, which have also worked out well for me.

I trade a few times a year, usually to recycle funds from something that has shot up into a new or existing laggard. Sale examples are Telecom Plus as it shot up on the back of the small energy Cos crises and McCarthy Stone & Royal Sun as they were bid for. Purchase examples are easyjet which has had a fundraise and looks well placed to do well on the back of any restrictions easing (something which also worked for me Summer 2020 as a short term punt).

Strategy is wholly UK traded Equities, usually with some reasonable dividend that I can take until it gets rerated (IMB is the exception. I don't expect it to rerate, but do expect continuing decent dividends)

AIR is my perennial Jam tomorrow share. One day, Rodney....

I have enough misplaced faith in myself to sometimes double up on shares that drop enough after purchase for no special reason. Similarly, if the price recovers to the original price I'll then sell the top-up. Rinse and repeat if required.

So, there you go. I don't contribute much to these boards as I don't feel I have enough value to my inputs, however I am grateful to the collective knowledge here and some of my purchases have definitely been influenced by some of the Lemons' comments.

Data taken from StockmarketEye, which is what I use for my portfolio tracking and can definitely recommend it.

Happy New Year and may all your individual strategies deliver for you.

--Andy--

[andyalan10]

Firstly, thank you for putting up your portfolio.

We have quite a lot in common - I hold 10 out of 19 of your shares for a start. And my self selected portfolio is a small portion of my overall wealth, but I enjoy tracking and tweaking it.

Two observations - Like you 3 of my largest holdings are VOD, IMB and GSK. I started out building a HYP style portfolio where being overweight in large generous dividend payers was popular. My pensions are in global trackers, and years of UK underperformance have resulted in my self-select portfolio becoming less important to my overall wealth. The dilemma now is do I reduce the plodders to invest in more dynamic companies, or continue to hold on the basis that the financial metrics point to the UK being very cheap, so it should rerate at some point?

Second, very much a case of "Physician heal thyself". But with 19 shares a spread of weightings from 1.3-13% looks a a bit imbalanced. Also I make it 15% clearing banks and 27% financials. Is your conviction on the future of the financial sector really that strong?

By comparison my own weightings, on 32 stocks range from 0.7% to 7%, so little better than what I am mildly criticising you for. And I am 10% clearing banks, looking to reduce, 20% financials, and 20% oil. The latter is a pretty strong conviction, financials I'm less sure of.

Anyway, all the best for 2022

Andy

[AndyPandy]

Firstly, thank you for putting up your portfolio.

Two observations - Like you 3 of my largest holdings are VOD, IMB and GSK. I started out building a HYP style portfolio where being overweight in large generous dividend payers was popular. My pensions are in global trackers, and years of UK underperformance have resulted in my self-select portfolio becoming less important to my overall wealth. The dilemma now is do I reduce the plodders to invest in more dynamic companies, or continue to hold on the basis that the financial metrics point to the UK being very cheap, so it should rerate at some point?

Hindsight will tell all in a few years time. Until then for me it's a case of wait and see. I used to be trigger happy on buys and sells but have in recent years imposed more discipline. Rebalancing would undo some of that discipline and set me off down the wrong path again. I'm happy to top up and sell down over and above my core holding if Mr Market is depressed or overenthusiastic about my shares. That snapshot hides a multitude of sneaky trades in 2020 for instance as I played the COVID card in March (Lockdown fear buys) and November (Vaccine news jubilation sells).

Second, very much a case of "Physician heal thyself". But with 19 shares a spread of weightings from 1.3-13% looks a a bit imbalanced. Also I make it 15% clearing banks and 27% financials. Is your conviction on the future of the financial sector really that strong?

Nope. Longer answer: I have no idea, I like to invest in what I understand and hope to get a misprice out of the Market. All the insurers, apart from Aviva, for instance were bought over the last 12-18 months as I thought they were undervalued as a sector. I didn't know enough about individual Company prospects so spread the money across a few. It's led to a Sector imbalance for now but in 5 years time it will probably be a different sector that got hammered that I will buy into. POI it was 'worse' as I also had RSA until they were bid for. I couldn't have predicted that but by having a spread I caught it.

Anyway, all the best for 2022

Ditto

Andy

Andy - something else in common!

[AndyPandy]

Cash 7.93%

Finally got round to this before the end of Jan. Work got in the way of pleasure.

As per last year I post this more for entertainment value than serious critique as there is plenty wrong with it. Having said that, last year's return was 8.94% vs the FTSE 0.87%. Year to date is 14.7% vs 4.2% (thanks EZJ). The recent thread about 2022 returns was interesting as at no point last year did my valuations drop below the start of the year valuation. Obviously AIR being taken over helped.

Significant changes:

Perennial Bridesmaid, Air Partner finally became a Bride. As my biggest holding that had a significant impact.
I came out of BP & Shell after a good run.
Rotated into Builders, perhaps a tad too soon but valuations seem absurdly low if you look at their Balance Sheets. We're a Nation of Property owners and that isn't going to change nor, short term, the shortage of properties.
This year's mini-farm bet has to be Easyjet. Made a turn in 2020 when it was driven down & bounced back. Bought in again this winter. It's been at bargain basement levels and, like property, as a Nation, holidays are a red line when cutting back. People travelled abroad even with all the PCR and quarantining hassles. 2023 should be good. I was in Nice this time last week. Getting through Customs outbound took 15 mins, tops. Coming back less than 5. OK, out of season but I was geared up for hassles and delays, but it was a breeze.
Sold some biggies such ULVR, IMB and GSK to buy in to EZJ but am open to buying back later on this year.
Biggest duffer is clearly DLG, but not panic selling and am considering averaging down at some point. (I know, I know....)

Anyway, that's it. All data from StockmarketEye. Can still recommend it. Good luck all for 2023 - I'm optimistic.

[Pendrainllwyn]

No closet Index hugging going on here. Best of luck with it.

Pendrainllwyn

[AndyPandy]

This year's summary for your perusal
Gains (Capital plus divs reinvested, cash transactions excluded)
ISA 20%
SIPP 25% (thanks mainly to EZJ and the 888 punt, but others paid their part)

More than happy as the FTSE has managed about 3%.

25 buys and 9 sells over the year, some intrayear so won't get reflected here. The main intrayear ones are DOM, 888 (bit of a successful punt) and CEY (where I switch in and out according to how manic/depressive Mr Market is about Gold).
I'm trying to expand the number of Holdings overall, but will still buy the dips (wash my mouth out) for certain holdings - BATS is a recent example.
I have a waiting list for purchases, but currently no free cash.

AIR finally became the Bride.
Farm bet of EZJ is paying off nicely and I'm optimistic of another 50% upside in 2024. We all like a good Holiday. Just see how OTB has performed recently.
DLG / VOD still the dogs. Keeping VOD for the divs, although if it was to cut I think we'd see a decent bounce anyway. DLG I'm just waiting to see what happens.
NWG was too good an opportunity to pass up this year. Got in at an average of 1.87 - still ridiculously cheap imo.

2024 look-ahead. Obviously an election against a backdrop of falling interest rates. Last time round I was nervous and raised a bit of cash just in case a Corbyn Government materialised. This time round I'm more sanguine. Mr Market seems to be, too. I think a Starmer Govt will (to start with at any rate) be a bit 'meh' for the Market, neither great, nor terrible so will be fully invested. Global issues? No idea.

My Portfolio Management has had to change. I used to use StockMarketEye, but it got bought out and the new owner made a complete pigs ear of it. There are workarounds, but I now use a combination of Stockopedia (research and Return calculations), Airtable (actual logging of transactions) and ADVFN (for live prices into Airtable). Bit of a mess, but there doesn't seem to be a decent (for my needs) Portfolio Management tool out there any more. It works, but it's not 1-click. Nor is it easy to produce the above table.

Anyway, all the best for 2024, everyone

Andy

[Dod101]

I think the fact that this portfolio can be a ‘fun’ one probably means that you can be a bit more adventurous than me for instance. I rely on my dividends to live off and so am much more conservative. I happen to hold a number of the same shares including for instance M J Gleeson which has done quite well this year.

Dod